n epal ’ s l ong - term d evelopment a genda our past & future in 10 vignettes swarnim waglé...
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NEPAL’S LONG-TERM DEVELOPMENT AGENDA
Our past & future in 10 vignettes
Swarnim Waglé
Member, NPC
Looking to the past
OneIn the long run, Nepal’s growth has essentially been flat
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
1775
1785
1795
1805
1815
1825
1835
1845
1855
1865
1875
1885
1895
1905
1915
1925
1935
1945
1955
1965
1975
1985
1995
2005
2015
Nepal USA South Korea Malaysia
India China Japan Argentina
Source: Illustrated by Swarnim Wagle based on Bolt, J . and J . L. van Zanden (2013), New Maddison Project DatabaseNote 1: Y-axis values in per capita Geary-Khamis international $ (1990)
After Prithvi Narayan Shah
Sluggish growth over 200 years
TwoIn the medium run, low level of investment and entrepreneurship
Brazil
Botswana
China
Hong KongIndonesia
India
Japan
Korea, Rep.MaltaMalaysia
Oman
Singapore
Thailand
India
Nepal
10
20
30
40Per
cent of
GD
P
0 10 20 30
Relative income per capita in the 1960s (% of US)
Source: World Development IndicatorsNote 1: Twelve high-growth economies (excluding Taiwan) identified by the Growth Commission contrasted with Nepal & India
1965-1995
Insufficient capital formation
ThreeThe big hurdles: geography and institutions
FourDespite indifferent growth, impressive social progress
FiveYouth bulge, conflict, and the rise of the remittance economy
Looking ahead
SixA second chance for deeper policy reforms and a boost in infrastructure?
SevenWill hydro be a game changer?
Eight‘Zero-carbon’ economy by mid-century on the back ofclean energy, agriculture and tourism?
NineCan India and China be our gateway to global value chains?
TenBut, will we govern better to deliver?[14th Periodic Plan & LDC Graduation; SDGs; Vision 2030]