n y 2017 cks may - peerless sec masterpicks - may...following suit with the hope of ... long while...

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27

th April 2017

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Peerless Securities Limited Peerless Mansion, 1, Chowringhee Square, 2nd Floor, Kolkata – 700 069 Tel. No. : 91-33-4050-2700

91-33-6450-2002 91-33-2243-5942

Fax No. : 91 -33-22436941 Email : [email protected] Website : www.peerlessec.co.in

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PORTFOLIO PICKS

STOCK PICKS FOR MAY 2017

Stock prices in INR April 27, 2017

COMPANY SECTOR

MARKET CAP(INR

CR) CMP RATING POTENTIAL

TARGET POTENTIAL

UPSIDE

HDFC BANK Banking- Private 398219 1569 ACCUMULATE 1700 8.38%

IOC Oil Marketing 215165 443 ACCUMULATE 500 12.87%

ICICIPRUDENTIAL LIFE Life Insurance 57270 399 ACCUMULATE 440 10.28%

MARICO Consumer Staples 40972 318 ACCUMULATE 360 13.21%

TITAN Cosumption 42321 478 ACCUMULATE 530 10.88% Time horizon of the recommended stock picks: 12 months unless specified

Market Outlook:

Indian equity markets hit new life high in the month of April on strong flows from domestic & foreign

institutional investors. Benchmark Nifty rallied nearly 1.8 percent in the month amid volatility. Recent rally in

markets has made stock prices overvalued in some sectors and pockets of markets and risk reward is not

favourably placed for short term. However, strong liquidity and expectations of faster recovery in earnings,

stability in political establishment in India could keep the market sentiments buoyancy in near term. We are

cautiously optimistic on Indian equities.

Market likely to be volatile in near term as valuation is stretched in near term. Geo political and protectionist

policies are the biggest risk in equity markets performance globally. Outcome of the 2 phase of French

Presidential election on May 7 have potential to inject volatility in capital markets. Proposed tax reform

announced by US administration could have a domino effect, with several economics around the world

following suit with the hope of attracting capital.

Earnings session in India so far is mixed with Cement companies and select private banks posted

reasonably robust numbers whereas growth momentum for IT companies continues to be weak in Q4FY17.

We continue to be positive in select private banking, Oil & Gas and domestic consumption related stocks in

India.

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UPDATE ON APRIL 2017 STOCK PICKS

STOCK CALL

INITATED AT DATE POTENTIAL

TARGET RATING PRICE(27

APR 2017) REMARKS

INDUSINDBANK 1422 30-Mar-17 1600 ACCUMULATE 1470.00 OPEN

KARUR VYSYA BANK 110 30-Mar-17 130 BUY 117.00 OPEN

EMAMI 1020 30-Mar-17 1200 BUY 1050.00 OPEN

AMARAJABAT 870 30-Mar-17 1000 BUY 883.00 OPEN

BAJAJ ELECTRICALS 320 30-Mar-17 370 BUY 347.20 TARGET ACHIEVED

Stock prices in INR Performance reports of recommended stock return in this report are carried on cash closing price and the call deemed to be open (for 12 months) on F&O expiry date of respective month until target is revised downward/upward depending on companies’ future performance. We have now revised this stock return performance policy from 30 Sep 2016(Oct derivative series) onwards and STOPLOSS BASIS stock calls are not given.

How Benchmark Index- Nifty moved during the period January - April 27, 2017

OPEN: 8210 HIGH: 9359 CLOSE: 9342

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Global Economy Update:

1) Oil price still in spotlight as OPEC may extend the production cut: Currently oil price are in anxiety

as be short of confirmation that OPEC will continue the production cut beyond June. Also Iran and

Venezuela, members of OPEC, have support for an extension of the production cut, with an aim to reduce

the global inventory and lift the oil prices up.

2) Raghuram Rajan warns policy uncertainty for world economy: Rajan said this is the first time in a

long while we have seen all the big engines firing at the same time including the large emerging markets.

There is lot of policy uncertainty right now because of the US administration is going to do and how much

it can achieve.

3) Britain Economy sighted on inflation beginning of 2017: After Brexit event last year Britain economy

now seen a positive effect to boost exports, the foremost concern about the pound depreciation after

Brexit has upstretched the imported raw material cost and strapped the inflation to three years high of

2.3%.

4) All Eyes on French Election second round: French presidential election is a big test to watch out the

EU’s future as French is the third largest EU economy. The major chunk hide in this event is the election

not only decide the country’s economy with more tell us about the EU’s future. Now the all eyes on next

phase of election.

Indian Economy in Growth path:

Key Statistics:

1) D-Street cheering, market at all time high and Rupee at 2 years high against USD: Several global

and domestic factors are pouring the Indian equity market and facilitate to touch all time high. After

witnessing strong Q4 results and reforms in economy, money inflow towards the Indian market has

rebounded as per the data shown by NSDL FPIs have infused Rs. 42k crore so far in this year. Showing

good growth outlook in rural India the sector like FMCG, 2-wheelers are starting rally, where capital goods

stocks rallying led by sturdy policy announcement and stable government.

2) RBI unchanged Repo rate in its’ first policy meet for FY18: On April-6 RBI announced the first by-

monthly policy for this fiscal and as per the expectation keep Repo rate unchanged at 6.25% citing

upward risks to inflation and global economy uncertainty, while played a safe game and raised reverse

repo by 0.25 bps, while cut marginal standing facility to 6.5%. The decision of the MPC is consistent with

a neutral stance of monetary policy in consonance with the objective of achieving the medium-term target

for consumer price index (CPI) inflation of 4% within a band of +/- 2%, while supporting growth,” said.

3) RBI governor give a standpoint on consolidation of PSBs: RBI governor says that Indian Banks could

be do well if some public sector banks are consolidated and point out that need is some healthier entities

not.

http://www.business-standard.com/search?type=news&q=Monetary+Policy

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STOCK PICKS

Company Data

Market Cap (cr)

52 week high (Rs) 1546

52 week low (Rs) 1085

3m average volume NSE 31,38,071

Beta 1.06

Face value ( RS ) 2

Shareholding (%) Q4 FY 2017

Promoters 26%

Institutions 55%

Non-Institutions 19%

Key Financials

FY16 FY15 FY14

Total Interest Income (Cr) 63161.6 50666.5 42555.0

Net Interest Income (Cr) 18304.3 14643.6 11823.1

PAT(Cr) 32352.2 25896.4 20219.4

NIM (%) 3.98% 3.85% 3.79%

EPS (Rs.) 50.85 44.10 36.58

Book Value (Cr) 74304.1 63154.1 44166.6 (FY 16-Adjusted) P/E 20.94 23.42 19.84

P/BV 3.64 4.06 4.07

RONW(%) 17.22% 16.92% 19.79%

RoA (%) 1.75% 1.76% 1.73%

HDFC Bank Sector: Finance-Bank NSE CODE: HDFCBANK

ACCUMULATE | PERIOD: 12 Months | CMP: 1569 Rs | Target: Rs 1700

TECHNICAL VIEW:

HDFC Bank has been in steady uptrend since last January 2017 making successive higher top higher bottom formation pattern. Recently it moved above important resistance of 1480 and continuing its upward momentum.

The stock has been moving up taking support around 7 wma(weekly moving average) showing relative strength in medium term.

Though Fibonacci retracement study projects target of 1770, our conservative target will be around 1700 in time frame of 1 year.

Standalone total income for the quarter Q4FY17 was ` 21,560.7 crore, up from ` 18,862.6 crore Y-o-Y. Net revenues increased by 21.1% to ` 12,501.4 crore for the current quarter as against 10,319.2 previous year same period. Net interest income for the quarter grew by 21.5% to ` 9,055.1 crore Y-o-Y driven by average assets growth of 19.0% and a core net interest margin for the quarter of 4.3%.

During the quarter core fee growth at 22% Y-o-Y and 7% Q-o-Q. Non-Interest Income to revenue remains healthy at 39%, while NIM Y-o-Y grew by 9 bps to 4.00% as compared to 3.91% last year same period; Deposit and CASA growth above industry - 38% and 46% Y-o-Y respectively, and also Credit growth above industry i.e. 25% Y-o-Y.

Gross NPAs were at 1.05% of gross advances as on March, 2017, as against 1.05% as on December, 2016 and 0.94% as on March, 2016. Net NPAs were at 0.3% of net advances as on March, 2017.

As of March, 2017 Bank’s distribution network was at 4,715 branches and 12,260 ATMs in 2,657 locations as against 4,520 branches and 12,000 ATMs in 2,587 locations as of March, 2016. Of the branches, 52% are in semi-urban and rural areas.

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Company Data

Market Cap (cr)




Beta 0.87

Face value ( RS ) 1

Shareholding (%) Q4 FY2017

Promoters 60%

Institutions 33%

Non-Institutions 7%

Key Financials FY16 FY15 FY14

Net Sales (Cr) 6132.0 5732.9 4686.5

EBITDA (Cr) 1062.5 870.1 748.0

PAT (Cr) 736.6 584.9 504.1 Net Profit Margin (%) 16.8% 14.3% 14.8%

EPS (Rs.) 5.62 8.89 7.53

Book Value (Cr) 2096.8 1824.8 1360.6 (FY 16-Adjusted) P/E 44.88 21.82 13.94

P/BV 14.92 13.68 9.93

RONW(%) 34.6% 31.4% 35.7%

RoCE (%) 33.97% 28.33% 29.22%

Marico Ltd. Sector: Personal Care NSE CODE: MARICO

ACCUMULATE | PERIOD: 12 Months | CMP: Rs 318 | Target: Rs 360

Marico operates business in India’s FMCG and branded services in the area beauty and healthcare. Some of their brands include Parachute, Saffola, Hair&Care, Nihar, Shanti, Mediker, Revive, Manjal, Kaya Skin Clinic, Aromatic, Fiancee, HairCode, Caivil.

In Q3FY17 revenue of the company de grew by 7% Y-o-Y to Rs. 1417 crores, whereas it de grew by 3% in YTDFY17. The EBITDA for the quarter de grew by 6% Y-o-Y to Rs.272 crore. The PAT for the quarter has also posted a de growth and it lower by 7% to Rs. 189 crores during Q3FY17.

The de growth led by an unprecedented event of demonetization in India. The consequent cash crunch severely impacted wholesale and rural trade which is heavily dependent on cash. The northern and eastern parts of India were worst hit. While there has been some impact on consumption, significant decline is attributed to pipeline reduction across channels.

After the demonetization chunk and faster demonetization helps economy to recover faster, while improvement in rural growth Marico’s volume growth improved in coconut oil, where it gained some market share. Due to increase in input cost it may increase product price to recover the margin.

Management View:

Expect to deliver double-digit sales growth, around 8-10% volume growth for the next four to five years.

Look forward to a much improved 2017-18 in terms of volume and value growth while maintaining a 20% plus margin in the Indian business.

The rural and infra focus of this budget along with the drive towards digitisation and GST will clearly offer better opportunities for growth for organised players.

TECHNICAL VIEW: Marico has broken out of v pattern formation with strong

volumes. This breakout formation happened after 8 months and

such adds strength to this pattern.

MACD and RSI has also been in bullish formation which is

adding strength to the chart.

Target of the stock in medium term will be 360

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Company Data

Market Cap (cr)




Beta 0.76

Face value ( RS ) 10


Promoters 81%

Institutions 9%


Key Financials

FY16 FY15 FY14

Net Sales (Cr) 1809 1674 1653

PAT (Cr) 1650 1634 1565 Net Profit Margin (%) 91.2% 97.6% 94.6%

EPS (RS) 11.52 11.43 10.96

Book Value (Cr) 5323 5265 4391

P/E NA NA NA

P/BV NA NA NA

RoNW(%) 30.99% 31.03% 35.64%

RoCE(%) 1.60% 1.64% 1.96%

ICICI Prudential Sector: Finance – Life Insurance NSE CODE: ICICIPRULI

ACCUMULATE | PERIOD: 12 Months | CMP: 399 | Target: RS 440

TECHNICAL VIEW: ICICI PRU stock is gradually moving up in strong uptrend making higher top higher bottom. The stock has been moving up in upward parallel channel and currently it is on the support channel giving opportunity to enter. RSI of this stock is strong and stock continuously is moving above 50dma indicating upmove intact for the stock. We expect the stock price to reach 440 in medium term (1 year time frame)

ICICI Prudential Life is a JV between ICICI Bank and Prudential plc. The company's nation-wide team comprises of over 2000 branches, over 290,000 advisors; and 24 banc assurance partners.

During FY17 savings business APE grew by 26.5% Y-o-Y and during the same period, protection APE grew by 87.1% leading to the overall APE growth of 28.1%. Whereas value of new business increased by 61.7% from Rs 4.12 bn in FY 2016 to Rs 6.66 bn in FY 2017 and margin expanded from 8.0% to 10.1% during the same period. Embedded Value as on March, 2017 was Rs 161.84 bn compared to Rs 139.39 bn as on March, 2016, a growth of 16.1% after dividends and 20.6% before dividends.

Favorable demographics, which led the business growth:

Indian economy poised to head towards sustained growth fuelled by favorable demographics, rising prosperity.

Growth rate of total premium written by the insurance industry has outpaced the GDP growth rate over the period of FY02-FY17.

Management Commentary:

We have a customer centric approach across the value chain from products to claims management and strong focus on quality metrics. Our multi-channel architecture is backed by strong technology platform. We have robust and sustainable business model with strong capital position.

`



Company Data

Market Cap (cr)




Beta 1.25

Face value ( RS ) 10


Promoters 57%

Institutions 17%


Key Financials

FY16 FY15 FY14

Net Sales (Cr) 355926 449508 488344

EBITDA (Cr) 23181 10550 17140


EPS (RS) 46.21 20.23 29.18

Book Value (Cr) 75993 68832 67913

P/E 4.24 9.14 4.79

P/BV 1.26 1.30 0.99

RoNW(%) 14.76% 7.13% 10.43%

RoCE(%) 8.13% 3.79% 5.64%

Indian Oil Corporation Ltd. Sector: Refineries NSE CODE: IOC

ACCUMULATE | PERIOD: 12 Months | CMP: Rs 443 |Target: Rs 500

TECHNICAL VIEW:

IOC has been moving up in a upward parallel channel for over last eight months. After moving up in upward momentum, the stock takes mild correction (sideways type) and again breaking previous high to move further. Technical indicator MACD, ADX both in daily and weekly charts have given buy signal for the stock to move up The stock is likely to move to target of 500 in medium term in time frame of 1 year

In Q3FY17 profit grew by 28% to Rs 3,995 crore, revenue during the quarter increased 15.3%, to Rs 1.15 lakh crore from Rs 1 lakh crore in September.

Average gross refining margin for nine-month ended December 2016 was USD 7.36/barrel against USD 5.83/barrel in same period last year. Whereas operating profit rose by 37.7% Q-o-Q to Rs 7,948 crore and margin expanded by 1.1% to 6.87% in the.

Also as decided that oil prices will change on daily basis as per the international prices and by passing on this revision in pricing, company can able to maintain the trend of pricing with that of international and this also helped to maintain the margins, as per the management.

Current Update:

IOC gets green nod to revamp Bongaigaon refinery at a cost of Rs 4185 crore.

The government indicated in the Budget its intention to restructure state-owned oil companies to form an integrated public sector `oil major' that will match the performance of international and domestic private sector oil and gas companies.

Company has decided to set up a second generation ethanol plant over an area of 50 acres at Panipat in Haryana.

IOC to invest Rs 2.7kcr in Gujarat refinery, with a investment of Rs 2771 crore.

`



Company Data

Market Cap (cr)




Beta 1.29

Face value ( RS ) 1


Promoters 53%

Institutions 26%


Key Financials

FY16 FY15 FY14

Net Sales (Cr) 11277 11913 10927

EBITDA (Cr) 931 1148 1044


EPS (RS) 7.77 9.19 8.28

Book Value (Cr) 3490 3087 2522

P/E 43.63 42.43 32.24

P/BV 8.62 11.29 9.24

RoNW(%) 19.75% 26.46% 29.13%

RoCE(%) 19.15% 25.71% 28.29%

Titan Company Ltd. Sector: Watches NSE CODE: TITAN

ACCUMULATE | PERIOD: 12 Months | CMP: Rs 478 |Target: Rs 530

Company’s operating segment includes watch, jewellery and others. The Companys brands are Titan , Sonata , Fastrack, Xylys, Titan eye +, Tanishq and Goldplus.

During Q3FY17 company registered 40% top-line and profit growth of 22% led by good sales growth in jewellery and watches. The quarter of course, for festival season as well as good wedding season but it was hampered by demonetization.

Jewellery has been exceptionally good with 20% top-line and 15% same-store growth after a long time i.e. 15% and it was aided by a lot of work that have done in the jewellery business especially on the new consumer launches and consumer schemes.

Watches division after a long time has shown good retail growth in WOT, LFS, and Helios it is a trade where the effective demonetization was more sever. Company have reported a loss of sale on account of the correction in spare part which now has been completed in a way and returning to normalcy. Overseas markets have faced strong headwinds.

Management advance commentary on the revenue of Q4 is very positive, company said its’ jewellery business sales for the Q4 was good, which contributes big chunk to the total revenue. Also the watches business has seen a good growth. Along with the revenue improvement margins are likely to improve in the quarter.

TECHNICAL VIEW:

Titan broke out of its previous high after forming v pattern.

Such pattern gives strong momentum in medium term and the

breakout with volumes adds strength to this stock.

Weekly 7-12 wma positive crossover continuation is evident in

the stock and momentum indicators are positive in short to

medium term.

We expect target of the stock of 530 in medium to long term.

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Research Disclaimer

RATING PARAMETER

BUY We expect the stock to deliver more than 15% returns over the next 12 months

ACCUMULATE We expect the stock to deliver 6% - 15% returns over the next 12 months

REDUCE We expect the stock to deliver 0% - 5% returns over the next 12 months

SELL We expect the stock to deliver negative returns over the next 12 months NOTE Target prices are for a period of 12-month perspective. Returns stated in the rating parameter are for our internal

benchmark.

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n y 2017 cks may - peerless sec masterpicks - may...following suit with the hope of ... long while...

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