nahb national survey

NAHBNational Survey

Key findings from a national survey of 2,000 likely voters, conducted May 3-9, 2011.

#11190

Methodology

METHODOLOGY

3NAHB NATIONAL SURVEY – MAY 2011

On behalf of the National Association of Home Builders, Public Opinion Strategies and Lake Research Partners conducted a national survey of N=2,000 likely 2012 voters. The survey was conducted May 3-9, 2011 and has a margin of error of +2.19%.

Due to the large sample size of our survey, we are able to show key data among both homeowners and renters. Fully 73% of voters in our survey identified themselves as homeowners, which is slightly higher than recent public polls among adults. However, this is not surprising as voters tend to be a higher educated, higher income audience than the adult population.

In addition, due to the large sample size of our survey, we are able to show key data among key political “swing areas.” Throughout this presentation, we have broken out the data by seats held by House Republican freshmen, Charlie Cook’s Swing House & Senate seats, as well as among Washington Post Reporter Chris Cillizza’s Presidential Swing states.

METHODOLOGY


House GOP Freshman Seats:Alabama, 2ndAlabama, 5thArizona, 1stArizona, 3rdArizona, 5thArkansas, 1stArkansas, 2ndArkansas, 3rdCalifornia, 19thColorado, 3rdColorado, 4thFlorida, 12thFlorida, 22ndFlorida, 24thFlorida, 25thFlorida, 2ndFlorida, 5thFlorida, 8thGeorgia, 7thGeorgia, 8thIdaho, 1stIllinois, 10thIllinois, 11thIllinois, 14thIllinois, 17thIllinois, 8thIndiana, 4thIndiana, 8thIndiana, 9th

Ohio, 1stOhio, 6thOklahoma, 5thPennsylvania, 10thPennsylvania, 11thPennsylvania, 3rdPennsylvania, 7thPennsylvania, 8thSouth Carolina, 1stSouth Carolina, 3rdSouth Carolina, 4thSouth Carolina, 5thSouth Dakota, At-LargeTennessee, 3rdTennessee, 4thTennessee, 6thTennessee, 8thTexas, 17thTexas, 23rdTexas, 27thVirginia, 2ndVirginia, 5thVirginia, 9thWashington, 3rdWest Virginia, 1stWisconsin, 7thWisconsin, 8th

Kansas, 1stKansas, 3rdKansas, 4thLouisiana, 3rdMaryland, 1stMichigan, 1stMichigan, 2ndMichigan, 3rdMichigan, 7thMinnesota, 8thMississippi, 1stMississippi, 4thMissouri, 4thMissouri, 7thNevada, 3rdNew Hampshire, 1stNew Hampshire, 2ndNew Jersey, 3rdNew Mexico, 2ndNew York, 13thNew York, 19thNew York, 20thNew York, 24thNew York, 25thNorth Carolina, 2ndNorth Dakota, At-LargeOhio, 15thOhio, 16thOhio, 18th

METHODOLOGY


Cook Report House and Senate Swing Seats:U.S. House U.S. Senate

New Mexico

North Dakota

West Virginia

Missouri

New England

Montana

Virginia

Massachusetts

Nevada

Ohio

Florida

Arkansas, 2nd

California, 11th

California, 20th

California, 26th

California, 3rd

Connecticut, 5th

Florida, 22nd

Georgia, 12th Georgia, 2nd Illinois, 10th

Illinois, 13th

Illinois, 17th

Illinois, 8th

Indiana, 2nd

Iowa, 3rd Iowa, 4th

Michigan, 9th Minnesota, 8th

Missouri, 3rd

Montana, At LargeNevada, 2nd

New Hampshire, 1st

New Hampshire, 2nd

New Jersey, 3rd

New Jersey, 7th

New York, 23rd New York, 25th

North Carolina, 11th North Carolina, 13th North Carolina, 2nd

North Carolina, 7th North Carolina, 8th Ohio, 13th Ohio, 6th

Pennsylvania, 11th

Pennsylvania, 12th

Pennsylvania, 4th Pennsylvania, 7th

Pennsylvania, 8th

Texas, 23rd

Texas, 27th

Utah, 2nd Washington, 8th

Wisconsin, 7th

METHODOLOGY


Chris Cillizza’s Presidential Swing States:

ColoradoFloridaIndianaIowaMinnesotaNevadaNew HampshireNew MexicoNorth CarolinaOhioVirginia

Swing States

The Value of Home

Ownership

Despite the housing crisis, ups and downs in the market and the decline in the value of homes, owning a home is still very much a part of the American dream.

Even in this weak housing market that some may describe as risky, those Americans who do not currently own a home, especially those under the age of 50, overwhelmingly say they want to buy a home.

Americans consider their homes as their single best investment.

What Americans are saying is that despite the ups and downs of the housing market and the risks, home ownership is worth the risk – clear and simple.


%One of Most/Very Important

Staying out of debt or getting out of debt.

Owning your own home.

Being successful at your job.

Saving enough for retirement.

Americans believe that owning their own home is as important as being successful at their job or

being able to pay for a family member’s education.

Being able to provide your family with more than you had when you

were younger.

Being able to pay for yours or a family member's education.


Which ONE of these would you say is your best investment?

Home ownership and a retirement savings program are considered by voters to be

their best investments.

Rental property

A home

A retirement savings program like an IRA or 401 (K)

A savings account

Stock market investments

Ownership of a business


Some people say that owning a home is the best long-term investment they can make and is worth the risk of ups and downs in the housing market. Do you agree or disagree with this statement?

Agree

43% Strongly

Disagree

9% Strongly

An overwhelming number of Americans say owning a home is worth the ups and downs

of the housing market.

+52



Agree

42%Strgly

Dis-agree

That sentiment is strong among renters and those who currently owe more than

their home is worth.

+64 +36 +46+53 +31

AgreeDis-

agree AgreeDis-

agree AgreeDis-

agree AgreeDis-

agree

50%Strgly

39%Strgly

40%Strgly

29%Strgly

13%Strgly

13%Strgly

15%Strgly

By Residence TypeAmong Those Who Owe More On Their Home

Than It Is Worth



Agree

41%Strgly

Dis-agree

And, there is agreement across age groups.

+46 +50 +49+59 +61

AgreeDis-

agree AgreeDis-

agree AgreeDis-

agree AgreeDis-

agree

41%Strgly

45%Strgly 42%

Strgly

50%Strgly

By Age

Attitudes of Homeowners


82% Very

Almost every homeowner is happy with their decision to own a home.

How happy would you say you are with your decision to own a home? (N=1,460)

Happy Unhappy

Happy 83%Unhappy 17%

Among Those "Under Water"


And, would you advise a member of your family or a close personal friend just starting out to buy a home in order to build long-term assets, or do you think owning a home is too risky of an investment? (N=1,460)

Yes, Would Advise to Buy No, Too Risky

Yes, Would Advise to Buy No, Too Risky

Fully 80% of homeowners would advise a close friend or family member just starting out to buy a home.

(That’s true even among those homeowners “under water” on their mortgage.)

Total and Among Those Who Owe More On Their Home Than It Is Worth

Attitudes of Non-

Homeowners


Yes No

+48

Is one of your goals to eventually buy a home, or is that NOT a goal of yours? (N=517)

Nearly three-fourths of voters who do not currently own a home say that it is a goal of

theirs to eventually buy one.


Is one of your goals to eventually buy a home, or is that NOT a goal of yours? (N=517)

Yes Yes Yes No NoYes Yes NoNo NoNo Yes

Younger voters (those most likely to be in the market for a home in the next few years), overwhelmingly

say buying a home is a goal of theirs.

By Age

18-54 83%-14%55+ 33%-66%


Saving for a down payment and closing costs

And, which one of the following would you say is your biggest barrier to buying a home? Is it...(N=376)

The biggest barrier for those who want to own a home is money for a down payment and closing costs.

Concerns that if home prices drop, your investment could be worth less

than what you paid

Inability to get a loan

Your current debt

Job uncertainty

Your credit score

The Politics of Housing:

Encouraging Home Ownership

There is a consensus across party lines and among voters in all swing areas that it is appropriate and reasonable for the federal government to provide tax incentives to promote homeownership.

Voters’ message to Washington: Leave the mortgage interest deduction alone. By a two-to-one margin, voters say they would be less likely to vote for a candidate who voted to eliminate the MID.


Now, as you may know, since the federal income tax was introduced in 1913, the federal government has used the tax code to encourage home-ownership. In general, do you think it is appropriate and reasonable for the federal

government to provide tax incentives to promote home-ownership or do you think that is not a good idea?

Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No

Americans across party lines believe it is appropriate and reasonable for the federal government to provide

tax incentives to encourage home ownership.

Total By Party By Tea Party Support

No NoYes Yes


By Ethnicity



This sentiment shows little variation by ethnicity.

Yes No Yes No Yes No


Among GOP Freshman Seats

Yes No Yes No Yes No No

And, voters in America’s key "swing areas" also agree.

Among Cook Report House

Among Cillizza Presidential Swing States

Among Cook Report Senate

Yes




Raising the Down Payment

Requirement


Have you seen, read or heard anything about proposals being considered in Washington regarding raising down payment requirements when purchasing a home?

Yes No

Few voters have heard anything about proposals to raise the down payment requirements when buying a home.

-62


And, do you believe these proposed changes will make it easier or more difficult to buy a home?(N=188)

Easier More Difficult

38% Much More

But, fully 92% of those who have heard believe that will make it more difficult to buy a home.

-87


Fav Opp

Opinions are divided on this issue; those most opposed tend to be Americans who would be in the

market to purchase a home in the future.

By Residence Type/Age

Now, I’d like to read you some proposals that are being considered in Washington that affect the housing industry, and please tell me whether you would favor or oppose each one…

Requiring that home buyers put a (minimum) of twenty percent down when they purchase a home.

-17 +13+6 -20+16 +32

Fav Opp Fav Opp Fav Opp Fav Opp Fav OppFav Opp

-0-

Total

28% Strg

29% Strg


The Mortgage Interest Deduction


% Strongly Oppose %Total OpposeEliminating the home mortgage interest deduction that homeowners can take on

their tax returns.

Limiting the mortgage interest deduction for those earning over

$250,000 per year.

Eliminating the deduction for interest paid for a second or vacation home.

Scaling back the mortgage interest deduction for homeowners with mortgages of $500,000 or more.

Eliminating the deduction for interest paid on home equity loans.

Lowering the home mortgage interest deduction that homeowners can take on

their tax returns.

All proposals to change the home mortgage interest deduction are opposed by a majority of Americans.



Eliminating the home mortgage interest deduction that homeowners can take on their tax returns.

Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose

A strong majority of voters oppose eliminating the home mortgage interest deduction.

Total By Party

53%Strongly 50%

Strongly

52%Strongly

58%Strongly


15% Strong

39% Strong

11% Strong

45% Strong

12% Strong

38% Strong

21% Strong

35% Strong

And, “lowering” the mortgage interest deduction is also rejected by voters across party lines.


Lowering the home mortgage interest deduction that homeowners can take on their tax returns.

Total By Party



14% Strong

36% Strong

13% Strong

42% Strong

12% Strong

36% Strong

17% Strong

30% Strong

Americans also reject eliminating the deduction for interest paid on home equity loans.


Eliminating the deduction for interest paid on home equity loans.

Total By Party



Now, I’d like to read you some proposals that are being considered in Washington that affect the housing industry, and please tell me whether you would favor or oppose each one…Eliminating the deduction for interest paid for a second or vacation home.


And, a majority oppose eliminating the deduction for interest paid for a second or vacation home.

Total By Party

29%Strongly

28%Strongly

27%Strongly

33%Strongly

22%Strongly

23%Strongly

26%Strongly17%

Strongly


Favor Oppose Favor Oppose

A majority even oppose “scaling back” the home mortgage interest deduction for homeowners with

large mortgages or those with higher incomes.

Scaling back the mortgage interest deduction for homeowners with mortgages of $500,000 or more.

Limiting the mortgage interest deduction for those earning over $250,000 per year.


19%Strongly

30%Strongly 22%

Strongly

33%Strongly


When voters are read two opposing points of view on eliminating the home

mortgage interest deduction...Now, I’d like to read you two different opinions on eliminating the mortgage interest deduction...

Those who favor this proposal say that the benefits of this deduction go disproportionately to high income Americans

and that eliminating it will help reduce the deficit by increasing government revenue.

Opponents of this proposal say that the mortgage interest deduction helps families achieve home ownership, which

helps owners build assets for the middle class and provides stability to families.

…while…


Do you favor or oppose a proposal to eliminate the home mortgage interest deduction?


Nearly two-thirds of voters oppose eliminating the home mortgage interest deduction, with strong

intensity in opposition.

Total By Party

44%Strongly

13%Strongly


33% Much

A majority of voters across party lines say they would be less likely to support a candidate for Congress who wanted

to eliminate the home mortgage interest deduction.

Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate for Congress who proposed to eliminate the home mortgage interest deduction?

More Less More Less More Less More Less

Total By Party By Tea Party Support

Less LessMore More


And, voters in America’s “swing seats” would be less likely to support a candidate who wanted to

eliminate the mortgage interest deduction. Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate for Congress who proposed to

eliminate the home mortgage interest deduction?

Among GOP Freshman Seats

Among Cook Report House

Among Cillizza Presidential Swing States

Among Cook Report Senate

LessMore LessMore LessMore LessMore

Voter Beliefs

Owning a home is part of the American dream.

A strong housing industry means more jobs and more money in our communities.

Voters link homeownership to retirement security.


%Total Convincing

Homeownership as part of the American Dream and the housing industry's linkage to jobs resonates

strongly with voters.

A strong housing industry means more jobs and more money in our communities. Every new single-family home built creates three full-time jobs and increases the property tax

base that supports local schools. We need to strengthen the housing market to keep our local economies growing and

creating jobs.

For many people, owning a home is part of their American Dream: It creates a stronger community, a place to raise a

family, and is their most valued stable investment for their children’s college education and their own retirement and

well-being. We need to strengthen the housing market so that more Americans can achieve homeownership.


Homeownership as an investment and as a middle class value also touch voters.

Home ownership is key to having a strong middle class and helping people build toward the American dream. The recent

housing crisis threatened to keep that out of reach for too many Americans. We need policies that encourage home

ownership if we want to rebuild the middle class.

Many Americans have planned their retirement by being able to live in the homes they have now paid off, and many others

plan to use their investment in their homes to live on in retirement. To help ensure secure retirement for millions,

we need to stabilize the housing market.

%Total Convincing

Bottom Line

BOTTOM LINE


Owning a home is a core value and still part of the American dream.

Voters want the government to develop policies that will encourage growth in the housing market.

And, they do NOT want the government to make it harder for people to achieve the American dream.

For More Information:

NAHB [email protected]

1-800-368-5242 x8409

#11190

214 North Fayette StreetAlexandria, Virginia 22314

Phone: (703) 836-7655Web: www.pos.org

1726 M St., NW, Suite 1100 Washington, DC 20036 Phone: (202) 776-9066

Web: www. lakeresearch.org

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