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NAMA and MRV, The new Language of Climate Change

Jeremy BarnettBarrister

Gough Square Climate Change Group

The new language of climate change

• CDM - Clean Development Mechanism• UNFCCC - United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change• BAU – Business As Usual• IPCCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change• COP – Convention of the Parties.• NAMA - National Assisted Mitigating Action • MRV - Measurement Reporting Verification.• GPG- LULUCF - Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land Use

Change and Forestry 2003; • REDD and REDD + - reducing emissions from deforestation and forest

degradation• FCMC - Forest Carbon, Markets and Communities programme• CCS - Carbon Capture Storage• BECCS - Bioenergy CCS• IEA – International Energy Agency

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End of CDM – birth of the NAMA?

• CDM has been brought into disrepute – like FIFA.• NAMA invented. Nationally Assisted Mitigation

Action.• Aim is to encourage countries to do things to

reduce Green House Gas Emissions• Attracts cash or will become the new method of

attracting private Wall Street cash • Needs to be transparent. Hence the growth of

MRV.

The End of CDM?• CDM – clean development mechanism.

– Under UNFCCC– Allows countries to meet their emissions targets by

buying Certified Emission Reduction Units – Which are tradable. – $95 billion has been raised between 2001 – 2012.– Scheme in danger of collapse because of fraud and low

price of carbon and failure of governments to support it.– EU Trading Scheme described by Economist 2012 as a

disaster in the making– Deforestation projects not a priority

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Problems with ETU

• Support for ‘carbon leakage’ and gas projects that make emissions worse

• Complaints about lack of governance, transparency of the CDM Executive Board that approves the schemes.

• Bulk of the projects from China (52%) and India (16%) who make Qatar look like the pillars of virtue.

• Collapse of the carbon price – the emission tax certificate that is tradable

• Current capacity too small; CDM is 400 projects per annum - $6 billion.

Fraud

• The Financial Conduct Authority now have formed the view that ‘there is no longer a viable secondary market for ordinary investors to sell or trade carbon credits’

• Applies to Carbon Credit Certificates, Certified emission reductions (CERs), Voluntary emission reductions (VERs) or direct investment in ‘green schemes’.

• Also bear in mind the projects are usually based overseas and authorities in the UK have no way of controlling the quality or validity of the schemes.

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Current Nama Applications

• Registry shows 90 applications under development, 8 in implementation, most in Latin America, most dealing with energy supply.

• Also, waste, building and transport.• Examples

– Sustainable urban transport programme Indonesia– Low Carbon Coffee Costa Rica (reducing methane in

wastewater, pulp treatment, inc Biomass– Mexico Eco Casa scheme

Nama Funding

• UK and German joint agreement in Doha 2012 to provide €70m in 4 projects under ‘Nama Facility Fund’

• Example: Chile. Self Supply Renewable Energy Nama• To encourage 50% energy self sufficiency by individuals

and companies• The Nama Grant fund – for high investment technologies

20% available for installation costs, connections to the grid etc

• NAMA Guarantee Fund, preferential rates and guarantees to banks against defaults

• Starts with help from UK/German fund and $10m from USA, plans to raise $100m from banks and financial institutions – priming the pump.

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What is a NAMA• New idea is Green Development Fund – target $10- 15

billion by end of this year and $100 billion contribution by Annex 1 countries per annum

• Using NAMAs.• And Private Sector Facility to tap the trillions going through

Wall Street every day.• Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action. • Bali Action plan: 1 b ii) has to be by a developing country.• Can be a set of polices, strategy or project, taken by a

country to reduce GHG emissions, • 1 b i) Must be to open to MRV. • Specifically encourages Deforestation projects and use of

markets to raise hard cash.

What is MRV

• Measurement• Reporting • Verification

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MRV• Measurement The process of data collection over time, providing basic

datasets, including associated accuracy and precision, for the range of

relevant variables. Possible data sources are field measurements, field

observations, detection through remote sensing and interviews

• Reporting refers to the process of documenting estimates of GHGs to the

UNFCCC and the methodologies used to derive them, as well as other related

issues, such quality assurance and quality control (QA/QC) activities,

uncertainty estimation, etc.

• Verification The process of formal verification of reports, for example, the

established approach to verify national communications and national

inventory reports to the UNFCCC. Building confidence in estimates and

trends, and helping to improve scientific understanding of GHGs.

Deforestation• Clearing Earth's forests on a massive scale, often resulting in

damage to the quality of the land.

• Forests still cover about 30 percent of the world’s land area, but

swaths the size of Panama are lost each and every year.

• Reasons

– Agriculture ( slash and burn)

– Logging

• Drives climate change , protection from the sun lost, dries out the

land causing deserts

• Trees act as a carbon sink so CO2 is released when trees are

logged.

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Some facts and figures• 18 million acres lost per annum (united Nations food and

Ag Organisation)• lost Forests contribute 12 – 17% of annual global

greenhouse emissions (World Resources Institute)• 50% of the worlds Timber and 70% of the paper is

consumed by 22% of the worlds population (USA, Europe and Japan)

• Between May 2000 and August 2006 Brazil lost 150,000 sq kilometres of forests , the size of Greece, due – logging, – fires, – growing of Biomass (50% of cars now run on ethanol,

and exports 90% of world supply) and– Soya beans ( 90 million metric tonnes exported for

cattle feed, mainly to China).

Get Ready for Redd: BAU is not an option

• Spanning 625 million hectares, the world’s tropical forests are rich in natural resources.

• Tropical forests contain as much as 50 percent of the species on the earth in less than 5 percent of the earth’s land area.

• They provide a wide range of ecosystem services including timber, fuel wood, water purification, and cultural and religious values.

• In addition, the world’s tropical forests help regulate the climate by sequestering and storing 375 billion metric tons of carbon, an ecosystem service of increasing importance as concerns about human induced climate change grow.

• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D0WeGw3h2yU

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REDD and REDD+• The mechanism under discussion by the COP of the

UNFCCC is commonly referred to as "reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation", abbreviated to REDD or REDD+. This title and the acronyms, however, are not used by the COP itself.

• REDD originally referred to "reducing emissions from deforestation in developing countries"; the title of the original document on REDD

• REDD+ (or REDD-plus) refers to "reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries, and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests, and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries" (emphasis added); the most recent, elaborated terminology used by the COP

Funding from the US• The US Government (USG) pledged $1 billion in “fast-start financing”

for 2010 to 2012 to assist countries to develop and implement REDD+ plans

• The US Agency for International Development (USAID) leads the implementation of REDD+ activities, with funding allocated through the sustainable landscapes pillar of its global climate change program.

• USAID launched the Forest Carbon, Markets and Communities (FCMC) program (2011-2015) to provide its missions, partner governments, local and international stakeholders with technical assistance in developing and implementing integrated REDD+ initiatives.

• FCMC is building technical capacity developing tools and training that support USG contributions to the international REDD+ architecture.

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Forrest Carbon Markets & Communities

• The MRV Task within FCMC focuses its efforts on building capacity, on protocols linked to REDD+.

• The FCMC team includes Conservation International (CI), the Greenhouse Gas Management Institute and the World Resources Institute (WRI), coordinated under the overall FCMC-lead organization, Tetra Tech.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

• The IPCC is an intergovernmental body that is open to all member

countries of the United Nation Environment Programme (UNEP)

• 195 countries are current members of the IPCC.

• The IPCC Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land-Use

Change and Forestry (GPG-LULUCF), is a key resource and

focuses on the overall reporting requirements and detailed criteria

for particular aspects of MRV.

• It serves a key role in providing reporting requirements within the

context of the UNFCCC and methodologies for MRV.

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Consistency

• In essence REDD+ is no more than a set of guidelines on how to report on forest resources and forest management strategies and their results in terms of reducing emissions and enhancing removals of greenhouse gases.

• However, a set of requirements has been elaborated to ensure that reports from Parties are consistent and comparable and that their content are open to review and in function of the objectives of the Convention.

Eligible Activities

• Reducing emissions from deforestation.• Reducing emissions from forest degradation • Conservation of forest carbon stocks. [+]• Sustainable management of forests [+]• Enhancement of forest carbon stocks [+]

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REDD+ in the carbon market• At the beginning no indication was given by COP how

developing countries would be financially compensated for their efforts to implement REDD+ to reduce emissions and enhance removals of greenhouse gases from forests.

• Two options were debated by the international community at large:

• a market-based approach;• a fund-based approach where Annex I countries would

deposit substantial amounts of money into a fund administered by some multi-lateral entity.

• Option 2 Green Climate Fund– result-based finance to developing countries that submit verified

reports of emission reductions and enhanced removals of greenhouse gases.

– only available to developing country Parties to the UNFCCC, – Leaves open a voluntary carbon market

Monitoring/Measurement, Reporting and Verification

• In Decision 2/CP.15 of the UNFCCC countries requested to develop national forest monitoring systems (NFMS) that support the functions of measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) of actions and achievements of the implementation of REDD+ activities.

• Measurements are by– Remote sensing is particularly suited to the assessment of areas of

forest and stratification of different forest types.– Ground-based observations involve forest surveys to measure the

carbon pools used by the IPCC, as well as other parameters of interest such as those related to safeguards and eligible activity implementation.

• The reporting has to follow the guidance of the IPCC, in particular the "Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry",

• Based on National Reporting methodology but through ‘Biennial Update Reports ’

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Reference Levels• Have to ensure that countries cant wangle it ( carbon credit fraud in

China)• Need to assess the quality of the national REDD+ program, the

"fidelity" of the reported emission reductions or enhanced removals.• the reference levels will be the reference against which the

achievements of the national REDD+ program will be compared to arrive at the amount of results-based benefits that countries can expect to receive for their efforts.

• A reference level (RL) is expressed as an amount, derived by differencing a sequence of amounts over a period of time.

• Reference levels have to have national coverage, but they may be composed from a number of sub-national reference levels.

Verification• Verification is an independent, external process that is managed

by the Secretariat to the UNFCCC; countries need to facilitate the requirements of verification.

• Verification goes through a process of International Consultation and Analysis (ICA), which is effectively a peer-review by a team composed of an expert from an Annex I Party and an expert from a non-Annex I Party which "will be conducted in a manner that is nonintrusive, non-punitive and respectful of national sovereignty".

• This "technical team of experts shall analyse the extent to which:– a) There is consistency in methodologies, definitions,

comprehensiveness and the information provided between the assessed reference level and the results of the implementation of the [REDD+] activities (...);(

– b) The data and information provided in the technical annex is transparent, consistent, complete and accurate and

– c) is consistent with the [UNFCCC] guidelines – d) The results are accurate, to the extent possible."

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Key ingredients• Transparent: sufficient and clear documentation so it can be

understood • Complete: Estimates are reported for all relevant activities and

gases. Where data are missing, their absence should be clearly documented;

• Consistent: Estimates for different inventory years, gases and categories are made in such a way that differences in the results between years and activities reflect real differences in emissions.

• Comparable: The GHG inventory is reported in a way that allows it to be compared with GHG inventories from other countries; and

• Accurate: The GHG inventory contains neither over nor underestimates, so far as can be judged, and uncertainties have been reduced as much as is possible. This requires undertaking all efforts to remove bias from the inventory estimates.

National Forrest Inventory• An estimate of the value and possible uses of timber is an

important part of the broader information required to sustain ecosystems. :

• species; diameter at breast height; height; site quality; age; and defects. From the data collected one can calculate the number of trees per unit of area

• A historical land-use change (LUC) analysis is the analysis of dynamics that have occurred in a given territory.

• This integrated into the GHG inventory in order to estimate the associated emissions or removals from the different land-use categories and subcategories.

• Also, the monitoring of LUC through remote sensing is a key tool to identify and implement corrective actions in areas where illegal deforestation and degradation is occurring.

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3 stages for each country

• Inventory Planning – including ‘capacity building’• Inventory Preparation – prepare estimates of GHG

emissions and removals, including estimates of uncertainty: difficult choice of which methodology to use

• Inventory Management; building a resource that is easy to use.

Case Study: Colombia• Has prepared 2 National Communications.• GHG inventory by IDEAM (Institute of Hydro, Metrology & env studies) under

control of Min Enviro & Sus Dev• Numerous organisations contribute inc ‘Integrated Monitoring for Illicit Crops

£22.5m budget for 2014’• Bogota, April 29, 2014 (IDEAM-MADS). IDEAM revealed that at least eight

new centres where active areas of focus were identified deforestation as the study in the second half of 2013 (July-December 2013 ).

• The reports are supported by digital processing of satellite images of high temporal resolution and low spatial resolution, allowing fully identify areas with higher intensity of deforestation.

• 2nd National report:– The potential annual reduction in total GHG emissions from CDM projects i

s aprox.16.402.496 t CO2 , which could lead to potential revenue to the country of about $152,000,000.

– There are few experts that manage methodologies Colombia!

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Case Study: India• Initially, the Indian Institute of Science took a leading role • The current approach involves cooperation with other organizations,

such as the Forest Survey of India (FSI), the National Remote Sensing Centre, and the Indian Council of Forestry Research and Education

• Funding for all activities is part of the Indian Geosphere Biosphere Programme of the Indian Space Research Organisation. For example, the Natural Resource Management Division, which covers land-use mapping, has been granted a budget of 537.4 million Rupees (or $9.95 million) for 2012-13

• compared to the 68.75 million Rupees (or $1.27 million) that was allocated in the budget for preparation of the entire GHG emissions inventory for the second national communication, spread over four years.

ICC Guidance• GPG- LULUCF • Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land Use Change and

Forestry 2003; • Objectives

– To assist countries in producing national GHG inventories for the LULUCF sector that are transparent, consistent, complete, comparable and accurate

• Subjects covered:– Consistent representation of land areas; – Sampling for area estimates and for estimating emissions and

removals; – Verification; and – Guidance on how to complement the Convention reporting for the

LULUCF sector to meet the supplementary requirements under the Kyoto Protocol.

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3 tiers

• The IPCC GPG-LULUCF (2003) and Guidelines (2006) allow for inventories with different levels of complexity, called “tiers.” In general, inventories using higher tiers have improved accuracy and reduced uncertainty

• Tier 1 methods are designed to be simple to use. Global sources – unlikely to be sufficient for Redd+

• Tier 2 Country Specific data• Tier 3 Full inventory of carbon pools.• Can use the EFDB ( Emission Factor) web based data

base

3 approaches

• Approach 1; Net area of land use for various land-use categories

• Approach 2; Tracking of land-use conversion on a non-spatially explicit basis

• Approach 3; Tracking of land-use conversion on a spatially explicit basis

• n.b Spatial analysis or spatial statistics includes any of the formal techniques which study entities using their topological, geometric, or geographic properties

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Opportunities.

• Designing systems and processes for MRV• Outsourcing inventory preparation process; Depends on

size of country, decision on nation v local plans, single or multi agency structure.

• Overseeing/advisory capacity

Further reading

• REDD+ GHG Reporting Conference - Progress Assessment & Future Outlook, Rome January 2014

• Review of progress so far• Examples

– Zambia forest inventory initiative– Namibia use of remote sensing– Other projects in Dominican Republic, South Africa

(major project on forests and agriculture)• Technical issues• Thanks to Jigme – UNFCCC Secretariat Non Annex

1 countries.

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Carbon Capture Storage

CCS• Carbon capture and storage (CCS) (or carbon capture and

sequestration), is the process of capturing waste carbon dioxide (CO2) from large point sources, such as fossil fuel power plants, transporting it to a storage site, and depositing it where it will not enter the atmosphere, normally an underground geological formation.

• Legal issues are;– Capture– Transport across national borders– Sequestration – leakage, Ocean storage, mineral storage– Leakage

• First UK demonstrator project at Hatfield, Doncaster with E164m funding with 37 km pipeline to support Drax and proposed Don Valley project at Hatfield.

• Regulators include– HSE see http://www.hse.gov.uk/carboncapture/– International Energy Agency Model Regulatory Framework.

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CCS Key Challenges • New technology, new risks.

– Speed of introduction – regulation is 5 years behind– CCS - recent rejection by Germany – CO2 discharge from

volcanic lakes killed 1700 in Cameroon, Lake Nyos 1988.– Regulation follows 5 years after the breakthrough

• International activity– Requires coordination in designing regulation

• Monitoring is a massive undertaking.– Scale of battery production will escalate.– Development of wide variety of types of batteries [eg China

prefers chloride batteries]– Manufacturers. Cross border regulation of multinationals– Disposal ( Wee) - dumping in Africa– Smart grid

• Operation of the smart grid facilities• Interruption of service

International Energy Agency• Main global player in this space - Researchindicates that CCS is an essential part of the portfolio of technologies needed to achieve substantial global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction in the most cost‐effective manner.technology could ‐ if governments commit to specific policies ‐ account for nearly one‐fifth of the emissions reduction required to cut GHG emissions from energy in half by 2050.Enormous future potential.

• 19% of global emissions reduction could result• Includes Bioenergy BECCS which removes CO2 from

the atmosphere.• CCS is high cost abatement strategy. Doesn’t generate

revenue if the carbon price is lower so no market in trading CCS in EU ETS

• No incentive for private sector to invest.

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CCS as a NAMA• So far $23 billion has been invested in CCS projects.

(2011 figure) - £1 billion in UK. $3 trillion needed by 2050 [IEA roadmap 2009]

• Numerous proposals to fund development inc cap & trade, carbon tax, tax credits, CO2 purchasing contracts, central bank of carbon.

• World Bank think this can come through use of NAMA registry – Building capacity– Reducing cost of implementation– Depends on showing real reductions or prevention of

growth on a local level.

The new language of climate change

• CDM - Clean Development Mechanism• UNFCCC - United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.• BAU - Business as Usual.• IPCCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change• COP – Convention of the Parties.• NAMA - National Assisted Mitigating Action • MRV - Measurement Reporting Verification.• GPG- LULUCF - Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land Use

Change and Forestry 2003; • REDD and REDD + - reducing emissions from deforestation and forest

degradation• FCMC - Forest Carbon, Markets and Communities programme• CCS - Carbon Capture Storage• BECCS - Bioenergy CCS• IEA – International Energy Agency

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Conclusion

• Scope for business at every level– Measurement – Training– Business Process– Research and development– Financial modelling– Investment.

• Although at first a tremendously dull subject, Nama and MRV is the new language of climate change.