nancy j. selover arizona state climate office arizona state university azclimate.asu
DESCRIPTION
Nancy J. Selover Arizona State Climate Office Arizona State University azclimate.asu.edu. Drought Monitoring Technical Committee Update to the Arizona Interagency Coordinating Group November 6, 2012. Precipitation Comparison Colorado River Basin. WY 2010 to April. WY 2011 to April. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Nancy J. SeloverNancy J. SeloverArizona State Climate OfficeArizona State Climate Office
Arizona State UniversityArizona State Universityazclimate.asu.eduazclimate.asu.edu
Drought Monitoring Technical Committee Update
to the
Arizona Interagency Coordinating Group
November 6, 2012
WY 2010 to April
Precipitation Comparison Colorado River Basin
WY 2012 to April
WY 2011 to April
October 30, 2012
May 1, 2012
National Drought Monitor Comparison (Short-Term)
Nov 1, 2011
Long Term Drought Status Comparison
October 2011
April 2012
October 2012
WY 2012
Jan-Apr 2012
Precipitation
Oct-Dec 2011
Precipitation in Selected Watersheds for Past 19 Years
Salt Watershed 12-month Precipitation(Sep-Aug) Median 15.25"
7 of last 19 years >= median (since 1972)
0
5
10
15
20
25
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Year
To
tal
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(in
)
Upper Gila Watershed 12-month Precipitation(Sep-Aug) Median 11.19"
7 of last 19 years >= median (since 1972)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Year
To
tal
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(in
)
Santa Cruz Watershed 12-month Precipitation(Sep-Aug) Median 15.00"
7 of last 19 years >= median (since 1972)
0
5
10
15
20
25
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Year
To
tal
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(in
)
Little Colorado Watershed 12-month Precipitation(Sep-Aug) Median 14.66"
5 of last 19 years >= median (since 1972)
0
5
10
15
20
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Year
To
tal
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(in
)
• Mohave County:
• Spring – Dry vegetation, high forage loss, high wildfire danger, low reservoirs, dry springs.
• Fall – after monsoon significant greening in many areas, but still very dry in many locaitons including the Kingman area.
Impacts
• Pima County –
• Drying stockponds and dry grasses in pasture land.
• Stage One Drought continues.
Impacts
Thank you !
Questions ?
Nancy J. SeloverArizona State Climate Office
Arizona State University
http://azclimate.asu.edu
Winter 2012-2013 Winter 2012-2013 OutlookOutlook
Gary WoodallGary Woodall
National Weather ServiceNational Weather Service
Phoenix, AZPhoenix, AZ
www.weather.gov/phoenixwww.weather.gov/phoenix
El Nino Winter ImpactsEl Nino Winter Impacts
La Nina ImpactsLa Nina Impacts
Arizona ImpactsArizona Impacts
El Nino winters…El Nino winters… Mild/cool temperatures, usually wetter than Mild/cool temperatures, usually wetter than
normalnormal La Nina winters…La Nina winters…
Warm temperatures, drier than normalWarm temperatures, drier than normal Neutral winters…Neutral winters…
Near normal temperatures overall, varying Near normal temperatures overall, varying amounts of precip (other factors in play)amounts of precip (other factors in play)
Sea Surface TemperaturesSea Surface Temperatures
Anomalies: difference between observed and normal temperatures
“Nino Regions” used in study and research. Nino 3.4 usually has the strongest signals
The El Nino/la Nina CycleThe El Nino/la Nina CycleEl Nino
La Nina
The Outlook...The Outlook...
Outlook: Jan/Feb/MarOutlook: Jan/Feb/MarThree-month averagesThree-month averages
Shading indicates Shading indicates chances of above/below chances of above/below normalnormal
Precip outlook consistent Precip outlook consistent with neutral winterswith neutral winters
Modest odds for above-Modest odds for above-normal temperaturesnormal temperatures
Outlook: Jun/Jul/Aug 2013Outlook: Jun/Jul/Aug 2013Three-month averagesThree-month averages
Shading indicates Shading indicates chances of above/below chances of above/below normalnormal
““Traditional” warm Traditional” warm temperature signaltemperature signal
Small-scale features Small-scale features drive summer precipdrive summer precip
SummarySummary
El Nino and La Nina can be big influences El Nino and La Nina can be big influences on our winter weatheron our winter weather
Guidance suggests a neutral to weak El Guidance suggests a neutral to weak El Nino winter (no La Nina!)Nino winter (no La Nina!)
The odds are tilted toward warmer than The odds are tilted toward warmer than normal temps, no odds on precipnormal temps, no odds on precip
A look ahead at Summer 2013 shows A look ahead at Summer 2013 shows odds again tilted toward warmer than odds again tilted toward warmer than normal temps, no odds on precipnormal temps, no odds on precip
Questions? Contact us!Questions? Contact us!
Telephone: 602-275-0073Telephone: 602-275-0073
Home page: www.weather.gov/phoenixHome page: www.weather.gov/phoenix
Facebook: www.facebook.com, search for “National Facebook: www.facebook.com, search for “National Weather Service Phoenix”Weather Service Phoenix”
Twitter: www.twitter.com/NWSPhoenixTwitter: www.twitter.com/NWSPhoenix
E-mail: [email protected]: [email protected]