nanos political index 2014-11-07

8/10/2019 Nanos Political Index 2014-11-07

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Weekly Nanos Party Power Index Tracking

(period ending November 7th, 2014)

released November 12th, 2014


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www.nanosresearch.com 2

Harper numerically surpasses Trudeau in preferred PM on

Nanos tracking for first time in four months

(Released 11/12/2014)

The federal Conservatives continue to positively trend in the weekly Nanos Party Power

Index. In the national index tracking which has scores out of 100 the Liberals are at 56points, the Conservatives at 54 points, the NDP are at 51 points, the Green Party at 31

points and the BQ are at 28 points out of 100 (QC only) respectively. The Tories have hita new 12 month high in the Nanos weekly tracking. Also of note, for the first time in a

year, the Tories have surpassed the Liberals in the index in the vote rich province of

Ontario.

On the preferred PM front, Harper has numerically surpassed Trudeau for the first time in

four months. In the latest weekly tracking 32 per cent of Canadians say Harper is their

preferred choice for PM followed by Trudeau at 30 per cent, Mulcair at 20 per cent and

May at four percent (14 per cent were unsure).

Even with the emerging trends on the leadership and index fronts, the proportion ofaccessible voters for all of the parties remains near their 12 month average. Asked a

series of independent questions, 52 per cent of Canadians would consider voting Liberal,

41 per cent would consider voting NDP, 41 per cent would consider voting Conservativeand 28 percent would consider voting for the Green Party of Canada.


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The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for

Canada is based on a composite of thefollowing public opinion measures: the

national ballot, which party individuals would

consider voting for, the top two choices forPrime Minister, and whether each party

leader has good leadership qualities.

Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237

Washington DC: (202) [email protected]

Download our app to get the

latest Nanos Numbersstreamed to your iPhone.

Data Summary

This Week Last Week

4 Weeks

Ago

3 Months

Ago

1 Year Ago

(Nov 2013)

12 Month

High

12 Month

Low

12 Month

Average

Canada Party Power Index

Liberal 55.8 57.0 59.2 55.9 56.3 60.7 53.6 56.6

Conservative 53.5 52.3 51.7 48.6 50.8 53.5 48.4 50.4

NDP 50.7 51.4 49.0 51.3 48.1 52.2 47.4 49.4

Green 31.1 31.4 31.6 34.8 31.8 35.2 30.2 32.7

Bloc 28.3 26.4 25.1 27.5 25.2 29.2 24.4 26.7

Party Consider

Liberal 52.4% 53.4% 58.1% 53.9% 49.7% 59.7% 47.2% 52.6%

NDP 41.4% 43.6% 45.8% 42.9% 39.8% 45.9% 37.9% 42.3%

Conservative 40.7% 40.4% 42.2% 37.6% 41.5% 44.1% 36.1% 39.7%

Bloc 32.5% 29.6% 28.7% 28.4% 32.4% 35.6% 22.4% 31.1%

Green 27.6% 26.7% 25.8% 29.7% 26.5% 33.1% 22.7% 27.6%

Preferred Prime Minister

Harper 32.1% 29.3% 30.0% 26.4% 29.4% 32.4% 25.2% 28.5%

Trudeau 29.5% 32.2% 35.2% 30.6% 30.5% 35.8% 25.8% 30.1%

Mulcair 19.5% 19.8% 17.4% 18.6% 16.7% 20.5% 13.7% 18.2%

May 3.8% 4.0% 3.8% 6.5% 3.8% 6.7% 3.1% 5.2%

Beaulieu 1.1% 1.0% 0.5% 1.9% 2.5% 2.8% 0.5% 1.5%

Unsure 13.9% 13.6% 13.1% 16.0% 17.2% 20.2% 11.7% 16.3%


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Weekly Nanos Party Power IndexSince voters are not actually able to make a choice between elections, it is interesting to

think about party strength and support more broadly. The Nanos Party Power Index fills

this need by incorporating more information than just current vote preference.

The Nanos Party Power Index is a weekly composite measurement of federal party brandsbased on four questions about the federal parties and their leadership. The questions

include:

a ballot question that captures the 1st and 2nd vote preferences;

a measure of whether the respondent would consider voting for the party;

the 1st and 2nd preferences for Prime Minister of the current federal leaders; and,

whether the respondent believes each current leader has the quality to be a good leader.

The views of 1,000 respondents are compiled into a diffusion brand index for each party

that goes from 0 to 100, where 0 means that the party has no brand strength and 100means it has maximum brand strength. A score above 50 is an indication of brand strength

for the party and its leader at this time.

The important factors in this weekly tracking include the direction of the brand strength or

weakness and also the brand strength of one federal party relative to another.


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58

5652 54

4851

33

31

31 28

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc Column2 Column3


Canada Weekly Index Tracking Scores(Four week rolling average ending November 7th, 2014, n=1,000)

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for Canada

is based on a composite of the following publicopinion measures: the national ballot, which party

individuals would consider voting for, the top two

choices for Prime Minister, and whether each partyleader has good leadership qualities.

Contact: Nik NanosOttawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237

Washington DC: (202) 697-9924

[email protected]




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Party Power Index Tracking by Region



7/36

62

68

49 47

55

54

32

29

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

Liberal Conservative NDP Green


At lan ti c Weekly Index Tracking Scores(Four week rolling average ending November 7th, 2014, n=100)

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for theAtlantic is based on a composite of the following

public opinion measures: the national ballot, which

party individuals would consider voting for, the toptwo choices for Prime Minister, and whether each

party leader has good leadership qualities. There arewider margins of accuracy for regional subsamples.



[email protected]




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57 54

39

44

58 59

32

283128

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc


Quebec Weekly Index Tracking Scores(Four week rolling average ending November 7th, 2014, n=248)

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for Quebecis based on a composite of the following public

opinion measures: the national ballot, which party

individuals would consider voting for, the top twochoices for Prime Minister, and whether each party

leader has good leadership qualities. There arewider margins of accuracy for regional subsamples.



[email protected]




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58

5657

59

43

45

33 32

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65



Ontario Weekly Index Tracking Scores(Four week rolling average ending November 7th, 2014, n=300)

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for Ontariois based on a composite of the following public


individuals would consider voting for, the top twochoices for Prime Minister, and whether each party

leader has good leadership qualities. There arewider margins of accuracy for regional subsamples.



[email protected]




10/36

5451

62 63

38

43

33

30

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70



Prairies Weekly Index Tracking Scores(Four week rolling average ending November 7th, 2014, n=200)

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for the

Prairies is based on a composite of the following

public opinion measures: the national ballot, whichparty individuals would consider voting for, the top two

choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party

leader has good leadership qualities. There are widermargins of accuracy for regional subsamples.



[email protected]




11/36

60

57

50

4949

55

3837

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70



Briti sh Columbia Weekly Index Tracking Scores(Four week rolling average ending November 7th, 2014, n=152)

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for BC isbased on a composite of the following public opinion

measures: the national ballot, which party individuals

would consider voting for, the top two choices forPrime Minister, and whether each party leader has

good leadership qualities. There are wider marginsof accuracy for regional subsamples.



[email protected]




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Party Power Index Tracking by Age



13/36

5655

5552

49

3835

33

38

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70



18 to 29 Weekly Index Tracking Scores(Four week rolling average ending November 7th, 2014, n=205)

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for the 18 to29 age group is based on a composite of the following


party individuals would consider voting for, the top twochoices for Prime Minister, and whether each party

leader has good leadership qualities. There are widermargins of accuracy for age subsamples.



[email protected]




14/36

58 60

51

55

4651

37

3130

24

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65




The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for the 30 to 39age group is based on a composite of the following






[email protected]




15/36

60

5652

53

43

51

31

34

26

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65




The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for the 40 to49 age group is based on a composite of the following


party individuals would consider voting for, the top twochoices for PM, and whether each party leader has

good leadership qualities. There are wider margins ofaccuracy for age subsamples.



[email protected]




16/36

59

57

49

49

5053

32

31

30

27

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65




The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for the 50 to 59age group is based on a composite of the following






[email protected]




17/36

55

5254

54

49

50

30

2629 27

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60



60 plus Weekly Index Tracking Scores(Four week rolling average ending November 7th, 2014, n=239)

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for the 60 plusage group is based on a composite of the following public


individuals would consider voting for, the top two choicesfor Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has

good leadership qualities. There are wider margins ofaccuracy for age subsamples.



[email protected]




18/36

Party Power Index Tracking by Gender



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Male Weekly Index Tracking Scores(Four week rolling average ending November 7th, 2014, n=465)

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for males isbased on a composite of the following public opinion



good leadership qualities. There are wider margins ofaccuracy for gender subsamples.



[email protected]



57

5456

57

4750

31

2929

26

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65



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58

57

47

51

4951

35 33

32 30

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65



Female Weekly Index Tracking Scores(Four week rolling average ending November 7th, 2014, n=534)

The Nanos Party Power Index Tracking for females isbased on a composite of the following public opinion



good leadership qualities. There are wider margins ofaccuracy for gender subsamples.



[email protected]




21/36

National Vote Considerations Tracking



22/36


National Weekly Tracking(Four week rolling average ending November 7th, 2014, n=1,000)

Question: For each of the following federalpolitical parties, please tell me if you would

consider or not consider voting for it.[RANDOMIZE] Conservative Party



[email protected]

42%39%

38%

41% 42%

37% 39%

37% 38% 39%

41% 42% 41%39%

41%39%

43%41%

52%

50% 51%

51%47% 54% 52%

55%51% 50%

50% 50% 51% 53% 49% 53%51%

50%

6% 11% 12% 8% 10% 10% 10% 8% 11% 11% 9% 8% 8% 8% 10% 8% 7% 10%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2013-06 2013-09-07

2013-10-12

2013-11-16

2013-12-21

2014-01-25

2014-02-28

2014-04-04

2014-05-09

2014-06-13

2014-07-18

2014-08-22

2014-09-26

2014-10-31

Would consider voting Conservative Would not consider voting Conservative Unsure




23/36


Question: For each of the following federal

political parties, please tell me if you would

consider or not consider voting for it.[RANDOMIZE] NDP



[email protected]

58%

41%43% 42% 43%

40% 41% 41%

39% 40%

46%43% 43% 44% 44%

45%44%41%

30% 48% 45%

48%44% 49% 47%

49%48%

49% 43% 46% 48%

48%

43%45%

47%47%

12% 11% 12% 10% 13% 12% 12% 10% 13% 11% 11% 10% 10% 8% 14% 11% 9% 12%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013-06 2013-09-07

2013-10-12

2013-11-16

2013-12-21

2014-01-25

2014-02-28

2014-04-04

2014-05-09

2014-06-13

2014-07-18

2014-08-22

2014-09-26

2014-10-31

Would consider voting NDP Would not consider voting NDP Unsure





24/36




consider or not consider voting for it.[RANDOMIZE] Liberal Party



[email protected]

62%

50%52% 50%

47%

53%50%

47%

51%50%

55%53%

55% 54%57%

59%59%

52%

26%40% 38% 39% 41%

38%38%

42%36% 39%

36%37% 35%

40%33%

33%34%37%

12% 10% 11% 10% 12% 10% 13% 11% 13% 12% 9% 10% 10% 7% 10% 8% 8% 11%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013-06 2013-09-07

2013-10-12

2013-11-16

2013-12-21

2014-01-25

2014-02-28

2014-04-04

2014-05-09

2014-06-13

2014-07-18

2014-08-22

2014-09-26

2014-10-31

Would consider voting Liberal Would not consider voting Liberal Unsure





25/36


Question: For each of the following

federal political parties, please tell me if

you would consider or not consider votingfor it. [RANDOMIZE] Bloc Qubcois



[email protected]

35%

40%

35%

30%33% 32%

36% 35%

24%

34%31%

33%

25%

31%

32%30%

25%

33%

52%

51%59%

60% 59%

59% 56% 58%

64%56%

62% 59%65%

63% 62%67%

68%58%

13% 9% 6% 9% 8% 9% 8% 7% 12% 10% 7% 8% 10% 6% 6% 4%

7% 10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013-06 2013-09-07

2013-10-12

2013-11-16

2013-12-21

2014-01-25

2014-02-28

2014-04-04

2014-05-09

2014-06-13

2014-07-18

2014-08-22

2014-09-26

2014-10-31

Would consider vot ing BQ Would not consider vot ing BQ Unsure

Quebec only Weekly TrackingFour week rolling average ending November 7th, 2014, n=248)




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consider or not consider voting for it.[RANDOMIZE] Green Party



[email protected]

38%

27% 26%24%

30%27% 26%

28%

24%

27% 28% 27%

33%31%

26% 26%27%28%

46%

61% 62% 66% 61% 63% 63% 62% 64% 62%

63%62%

59% 61%63%

65%65% 63%

16% 11% 12% 10% 10% 10% 11% 10% 12% 11% 10% 11% 8% 8% 11% 9% 8 % 9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013-06 2013-09-07

2013-10-12

2013-11-16

2013-12-21

2014-01-25

2014-02-28

2014-04-04

2014-05-09

2014-06-13

2014-07-18

2014-08-22

2014-09-26

2014-10-31

Would consider voting Green Would not consider vot ing Green Unsure





27/36

National Leadership Tracking



28/36


Question: Of the current federal political

party leaders, could you please rank yourtop two current local preferences for

Prime Minister? [ROTATE PARTY

LEADERS]



[email protected]

30%

30%29%

32%

17%

20%

1% 1%

6%

4%

14%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Justin Trudeau (Liberal) Stephen Harper (Conservative) Thomas Mulcair (NDP)

Beaulieu (Bloc) Elizabeth May (Green) Unsure

National Weekly Tracking First Ranked Choice(Four week rolling average ending November 7th, 2014, n=1,000)




29/36



political party leaders, do you think they have

or do not have the qualities to be a goodpolitical leader? [RANDOMIZE] Stephen

Harper

Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237


55%

50%

55% 54%50%

53%

49% 50%52% 53%

56% 55% 54%

49%

54% 55%

59%

38% 42%36%

39% 41% 39% 43% 42% 40% 37% 35% 36% 37% 44% 37%

38% 33%

7% 7% 10% 8% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 10% 9% 10% 9% 7% 9% 7% 8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013-08-10

2013-09-14

2013-10-19

2013-11-23

2013-12-28

2014-02-01

2014-03-07

2014-04-11

2014-05-16

2014-06-20

2014-07-25

2014-08-29

2014-10-03

2014-11-07

Has qual it ies of a good leader Does not have qual it ies of a good leader Unsure





30/36




or do not have the qualities to be a goodpolitical leader? [RANDOMIZE] Thomas

Mulcair

Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237


45%44% 43% 43%

51%49%

46%49% 48%

50% 51%

47%

51% 52%49%

52% 52%

30%28%

28%

31%

28%

26% 29% 28% 29% 27%

28%

27% 26% 25% 27%

26%23%

25% 27% 29% 26% 21% 25% 25% 23% 24% 23% 22% 26% 24% 24% 24% 23% 25%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013-08-10

2013-09-14

2013-10-19

2013-11-23

2013-12-28

2014-02-01

2014-03-07

2014-04-11

2014-05-16

2014-06-20

2014-07-25

2014-08-29

2014-10-03

2014-11-07

Has qualities of a good leader Does not have qualities of a good leader Unsure





31/36




or do not have the qualities to be a goodpolitical leader? [RANDOMIZE] Justin

Trudeau

Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237


55%54%

58%

54%52% 53%

55% 54%53% 52% 53%

54%52% 53%

58%

62%

54%

29%29% 24%

32%32% 31%

31% 33% 32% 34% 34% 32%

33%34%

31% 25% 33%

16% 17% 18% 14% 16% 16% 14% 14% 15% 14% 13% 14% 16% 13% 11% 12% 13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013-08-10

2013-09-14

2013-10-19

2013-11-23

2013-12-28

2014-02-01

2014-03-07

2014-04-11

2014-05-16

2014-06-20

2014-07-25

2014-08-29

2014-10-03

2014-11-07

Has qual it ies of a good leader Does not have quali ties of a good leader Unsure





32/36




or do not have the qualities to be a goodpolitical leader? [RANDOMIZE] Mario Beaulieu



[email protected]

23% 25%

15%

21% 21%18% 20%

23% 21% 22% 24%

19%17%

23%

16%19%

19%

40%

46%

48%

50% 52%49%

49% 48% 50% 45%48%

49%

46%

50%

53% 53%49%

37% 29% 38% 29% 28% 33% 31% 28% 30% 33% 28% 33% 37% 27% 31% 28% 32%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013-08-10

2013-09-14

2013-10-19

2013-11-23

2013-12-28

2014-02-01

2014-03-07

2014-04-11

2014-05-16

2014-06-20

2014-07-25

2014-08-29

2014-10-03

2014-11-07


Quebec only Weekly Tracking(Four week rolling average ending November 7th, 2014, n=248)




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or do not have the qualities to be a goodpolitical leader? [RANDOMIZE] Elizabeth May



[email protected]

31% 30% 31%28%

33%30% 32% 30%

26%

34% 35% 34% 34% 35%

32%30% 30%

43%

41% 40% 44% 40%

40%41% 43%

46% 39%

40%

38% 38%

38% 41%

40% 39%

26% 29% 29% 28% 26% 30% 28% 27% 28% 27% 25% 28% 28% 27% 27% 30% 31%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013-08-10

2013-09-14

2013-10-19

2013-11-23

2013-12-28

2014-02-01

2014-03-07

2014-04-11

2014-05-16

2014-06-20

2014-07-25

2014-08-29

2014-10-03

2014-11-07






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Methodology



35/36

Survey Methodology


The Weekly Nanos Party Power Index Tracking is produced by the Nanos Research Corporation,

headquartered in Canada, which operates in Canada and the United States. The data is based

on random telephone interviews with 1,000 Canadians (land- and cell-lines), using a four weekrolling average of 250 respondents each week, 18 years of age and over. The random sample of

1,000 respondents may be weighted by age and gender using the latest census information for

Canada. The interviews are compiled into a four week rolling average of 1,000 interviews, whereeach week the oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group of 250 interviews isadded. The views of 1,000 respondents are compiled into a diffusion brand index for each party

that goes from 0 to 100, where 0 means that the party has no brand strength and 100 means it

has maximum brand strength. A score above 50 is an indication of brand strength for the partyand its leader at this time.

The current report is based on a four week rolling average of Canadian opinion ending November7th, 2014.

A random telephone survey of 1,000 Canadians is accurate 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus,19 times out of 20.

Download our app to get thelatest Nanos Numbers

streamed to your iPhone.


36/36

www nanosresearch com 39

About NanosNanos is one of North Americas most trusted research and strategy organizations. Our team of

professionals is regularly called upon by senior executives to deliver superior intelligence and market

advantage whether it be helping to chart a path forward, managing a reputation or brand risk or

understanding the trends that drive success. Services range from traditional telephone surveys, through

to elite in-depth interviews, online research and focus groups. Nanos clients range from Fortune 500companies through to leading advocacy groups interested in understanding and shaping the public

landscape. Whether it is understanding your brand or reputation, customer needs and satisfaction,

engaging employees or testing new ads or products, Nanos provides insight you can trust.

View our brochure

Nik Nanos FMRIA

Chairman, Nanos Research Group

Ottawa (613) 234-4666 ext. 237Washington DC (202) 697-9924

[email protected]

nanos political index 2014-11-07

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