M E M O R A N D U M

To: Michael Walker, Senior Planner, City of Napa

From: Rajeev Bhatia, Principal, Brendan Hurley, Planner, and Mayu Tanaka, Planner

Re: 2040 General Plan Buildout Projections

Date: February 24, 2021

Developing buildout projections is a critical step in the general plan update process. Forecasting the growth in population, housing, and employment likely to result from implementation of the 2040 General Plan will inform key planning decisions and serve as the basis for environmental review under the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA). Specifically, the buildout projections will be used to estimate future traffic conditions, pollutant emissions, and planning for parks and infrastructure, that will in turn inform development of policies in the General Plan and quantify potential environmental impacts.

Because most development will be carried out through private initiative rather than directly by the City, the amount and pace of development will be determined largely by market forces, and influenced by land availability, appropriate land use designations and zoning, financial feasibility of development, and City policy related to difficulty or ease of undertaking development. Thus projections 20 years into the future are not a forecast, but rather informed estimates of development likely to result.

This memo summarizes the methodology and assumptions used to develop projections for the City of Napa General Plan Update. It also outlines the purpose and uses of buildout projections and presents the findings of the analysis.

PARAMETERS FOR PROJECTIONS

Cities are rarely, if ever, built out to the maximum capacity allowed under zoning/land use designations. Land supply and availability of appropriately zoned sites is crucial, but development that actually results is tempered by a variety of market forces and interest on part of property owners. For example, a City can zone for a large amount of retail space, but if underlying market demand factors do not support this, it will not get built. The same applies to residential development; for example, City of Napa zoning currently permits mixed-use and multifamily residential as a permitted use in several downtown zones and as a conditional use in most commercial zones; however, many of the designated sites continue to be used exclusively for commercial uses. On these sites, interested owners would need to consider not just the market demand and financial feasibility of multifamily residential development but also how that would compare to continuation of or investments in uses already at the site.

Sites are also often not built to the permitted maximum intensity (floor area ratio) or density (housing units per acre). Construction costs, need for structured parking, and market factors all

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play a role in development that is realized. In many communities in the Bay Area for example, developers see greater profitability in undertaking townhome rather than multifamily housing development, despite the overall shortage of housing that exists.

As such, future projections for the 2040 General Plan (also sometimes referred to as “buildout”) are neither forecasts or predictions, nor estimates of theoretical maximum zoning capacity, but rather represent a reasonably foreseeable estimate of development potential, factoring in the capacity of land in the Planning Area as well as foreseeable market demand. These projections are shown in the form of housing units and population, and non-residential building area and population.

METHODOLOGY

To develop a reasonably foreseeable projection of housing and job growth for the planning period, Dyett & Bhatia conducted a parcel-based analysis that considers existing uses, development potential given environmental and other factors, and market demand. The methodology for the projections is described below.

Opportunity Sites

Building upon findings from the 2019 Existing Conditions Report, information on existing development patterns available from the City, Napa County tax assessor’s data from 2018, and focused windshield surveys were used to identify and underutilized parcels as opportunity sites, or places where change (i.e., new development or redevelopment) is most likely to occur. Underutilized sites were defined as parcels with low to moderate assessed improvements (i.e., buildings) to land value (AV) ratio, floor area ratio (FAR), or both.

A parcel with an AV ratio of less than one may be considered underutilized, and the lower the value of permanent structures on a site relative to land value, the greater the propensity to change, especially if market conditions and zoning regulations allow higher development values to be realized. Floor area ratio (FAR) is a measure of building intensity, defined as the ratio of building floor area to overall site area. A low intensity means that buildings are small in floor area compared to the overall site and therefore have potential for intensification in the future.

Using these criteria and Geographic Information Systems (GIS), approximately 1,500 parcels (about 612 acres) were flagged as opportunity sites. As seen in Figure 1, these parcels are generally along major corridors that correspond with the Focus Areas that were the central concepts explored with the community during prior outreach activities, as well as areas at city edges, including the land in the Napa Pipe area.

Pipeline Projects

A list of pipeline projects, or current major development projects under review, approved, or under construction, was provided by City staff. Project details including any new housing and non-

ATTACHMENT 6

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residential development were joined to the parcel database. Buildout assumes that all pipeline development will occur during the planning period.

Development Assumptions

New development is the net change in housing and non-residential building area that will occur based on the tier of the opportunity site and changes in land use designation as provided by the Draft General Plan. Opportunity sites were ranked in a tiering system by their existing conditions (i.e., AV ratio, FAR, vacant status, and location) and assigned a development potential, or amount of the parcel that is likely to undergo development during the planning period. This factor was applied to the size of each parcel to determine potential new developable area, as well as the proportion of existing buildings that would be redeveloped. Table 1 summarizes the criteria and development potential that were assigned and Figure 1 maps the opportunity sites.

Table 1: Development Assumptions

Category Criteria Development

Potential

Tier 1 Vacant land 80%

Tier 2 Both Low FAR1 and Low AV Ratio2 50%

Tier 3 Only Low FAR or Low AV Ratio, or both Moderate FAR and Moderate AV Ratio 40%

Tier 4 Only Moderate FAR or Moderate AV Ratio 20%

1. Low FAR is less than 0.2; Moderate FAR is between 0.2 and 0.5.

2. Low AV Ratio is less than 0.4; Moderate AV Ratio is between 0.4 and 0.6.

Dyett & Bhatia, 2021

Land Use Assumptions

Land use classifications based on the Draft General Plan Land Use map (Figure 2) were then applied to each opportunity site. Given that not all parcels within a land use designation will reach the maximum allowed development intensity or residential density, average values were assumed to calculate the amount of new development at each site. For example, the Business Professional designation allows for a maximum residential density of 40.0 dwelling units per acre and a maximum development intensity of 1.20 FAR; the assumed average residential density and non-residential development intensity were set below these thresholds, at 10.0 dwelling units per acre and 0.40 FAR.1 Non-residential development was then further classified by use based on the land use designation in order to translate the associated growth in employment. For instance, all non-residential development in Business Professional sites was assumed to be commercial (e.g., office, retail uses).

1 A non-vacant site would subtract the amount of redeveloped existing building area from its respective existing use

category to yield net new development. This may lead to negative values of net change at some sites.

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Sites with special considerations were calculated separately, including the Downtown Specific Plan Area and other certain locations that may require additional analysis such as the Ghisletta Properties (between Foster Road and Golden Gate Drive, south of Irene M. Snow Elementary School). For opportunity sites within the Downtown Specific Plan Area, development density and intensity were assigned by the respective zoning district of each site (i.e., Downtown I, Downtown II, or Transition). The remaining special sites underwent an exploratory environmental constraints analysis to determine the level of development potential. The resulting calculations for these sites are an estimate based on this analysis and are not a determination of actual capacity or proposed development.

DEVELOPMENT SUMMARY

Table 2 shows existing, pipeline, and new housing units and building area, as well as existing and projected population, jobs, and jobs/employed residents balance. As shown in Table 2, there are approximately 30,700 housing units, 51,200 jobs, and 8.7 million square feet of commercial uses and 8.0 million square feet of industrial uses in the City of Napa. Pipeline development includes 3,200 housing units, 883,000 square feet of commercial uses, and 92,000 square feet of industrial development, and additional new development would provide for approximately 4,000 housing units, 1.4 million square feet of commercial uses, and 1.6 million square feet of industrial development. Buildout of the 2040 General Plan is thus projected to result in a citywide total of 37,900 housing units, 61,900 jobs, 10.9 million square feet of commercial uses, and 9.6 million square feet of industrial uses.

Population Growth

Total population was derived from the number of housing units, based on a household size of 2.66 persons per household, 6.7 percent vacancy rate (vacancy rate as of January 2020), and a group quarters population of 1.6 percent, which translates to roughly 15,900 new residents over the next 20 years. It is noted that this calculation is based on total housing inventory and reflects a citywide average household size. Figure 3 illustrates this relationship between population and housing.

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Figure 3: Housing and Population Growth

Source: California Department of Finance Population and Housing Estimates Tables E-5 (2020) and E-8 (2007, 2012)

Job Growth

The number of jobs in the City of Napa is projected to increase from 51,200 jobs in 2019 to 61,900 jobs in 2040. New jobs were calculated by applying the following employment density factors to new development by land use category:

• 225 square feet per job (s.f./job) for retail

• 250 s.f./job for office

• 1,000 s.f./job for industrial

• 500 s.f./job for institutional

• 500 s.f./job for hotel/other uses

Jobs associated with industry sectors that are not tied to land use, such as construction and transportation, were included by assuming a consistent proportional growth factor.

Jobs/Housing Balance

Jobs/housing balance is more correctly measured as jobs/employed residents’ ratio, where jobs represent the number of jobs in the city and employed residents the number of Napa residents that are employed. A jobs to employed residents’ ratio of 1.0 indicates a perfect balance – that is the number of out-commuters is balanced by the number of in-commuters.

202079,300

204095,700

202030,700

204037,900

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Hou

sing

Uni

ts

Popu

latio

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City of Napa Population Buildout Population

Existing Housing Units Buildout Housing Units

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As shown in Table 2, the present jobs/employed residents’ ratio in Napa is 1.19, or a housing deficit of approximately 19 percent. General Plan projections show jobs and housing growing at similar rates over the next 20 years; thus the city’s housing deficit would persist. However, the General Plan does allow for additional housing (as well as employment uses) beyond those projected; should the market for residential uses—especially multi-family and housing in mixed-use developments—be larger than projected, greater job/employment residents’ parity could result.

Table 2: Development Projections Summary Existing2 Change3 2040 Total Growth

Residential

Housing Units 30,700 7,200 37,900 23%

Pipeline 3,200

Additional New 4,000

Population 79,300 15,900 95,700 20%

Employed Residents 43,000 9,000 52,000 Non-Residential

Commercial (s.f.) 8,655,000 2,293,000 10,948,000 Pipeline 883,000

Additional New 1,410,000

Industrial (s.f.) 7,979,000 1,662,000 9,641,000 Pipeline 92,000

Additional New 1,570,000

Total 16,634,000 3,955,000 20,589,000 Jobs 51,200 10,700 61,900 21%

Jobs/Housing Balance

Jobs/Employed Residents 1.19 1.19 1. Building area rounded to the nearest 1,000; other values rounded to the nearest 100. Totals may not add up

due to rounding.

2. Existing building area is from CoStar/EPS, Inc. Existing jobs are 2019 estimates from State EDD. Existing housing and population are 2020 estimates by State DoF.

3. Change is the total of additional new development and major development projects that are currently in the pipeline. Additional development is the net value of new development and redevelopment.

CoStar/Economic & Planning Systems, 2019; California Employment Development Department, 2021; California Department of Finance, 2021; Dyett & Bhatia, 2021.

ATTACHMENT 6

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NAPACOUNTY

Nap

a River

TrancasStreetCorridor

JeffersonStreetCorridor

Lincoln &Soscol Ave

DowntownCore

Imola &SoscolAve

1st St

Redwood Rd

1stA

ve

Imola Ave

Pueblo Ave

Congress ValleyRd

Coombsvil le Rd

Browns Valley Rd

California Blvd

S Jefferson St

Old Sonoma

Rd

4th

Av eW Imola Ave

Orchard Ave

Wes

tview

Dr

Dry Creek Rd

Soscol Ave

3rd St

Jefferson St

Lincoln AveBig Ranch Rd

Trancas St

Mon

ticell

o Rd

Hagen Rd

Vichy Ave

Silverado Trl

Foot

hill

Blvd

S C

oom

bs S

t

Buhman Ave

Ash St

W Lincoln Ave

Yajome St

Caro l D

r

Laurel St

S Ter

race

Dr

Terr

ace

Dr

Coo

mbs

St

ShurtleffAve

Main St

W Pueblo Ave

Shetler Ave

Salvador Ave

Kilburn Ave

2nd St

Trower Ave

FosterRd

Golde

nG

ate

Dr

Linda Vista Ave

Dri

vew

ay

Mon tecito Blvd

East

Ave

Oak St

Monte Vist aD

r

SF ra nklin

S t

Wine Country Ave

E Spring St

W Park Ave

Muller Dr

Oxford St

Vine Hill Dr

Fran

klin

St

A St

Scenic Dr

Sierra Ave

P artric k Rd

G St

Pine

wood

Dr

Spring StGeorgia St

Beard Rd

Pine St

Kansas Ave

Central Ave

Twin O a ksD

r

F airfax

Dr

Source: City of Napa, 2019; Napa County, 2018; Dyett and Bhatia, 2021

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 Feet

0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 Mile

25Acres

100Acres

Figure 1:Opportunity Sites

NapaValley

College

NapaHigh

School

VintageHigh

SchoolJustin-SienaHigh

School

KennedyPark

AlstonPark

Stanly RanchSouth Wetlands

Open Space

WestwoodHills

TrancasCrossing

SouthJefferson

Park

Opportunity Category

Current Development Project

Tier 1 (80%)

Tier 2 (50%)

Tier 3 (40%)

Tier 4 (20%)

Map Base

City of Napa

Sphere of Influence

2040 General Plan Area

Downtown Area Specific Plan

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ATTACHMENT 6

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DomaineCarneros

SilveradoResort + Spa

NAPA COUNTY

NAPA COUNTY

Nap

a Riv

er

TrancasStreetCorridor

JeffersonStreetCorridor

Lincoln &Soscol Ave

DowntownCore

Imola &SoscolAve

Pueblo Ave

1st St

Redwood Rd

1stA

ve

Imola Ave

Congress ValleyRd

Coombsville Rd

Browns Valley Rd

California Blvd

S Jefferson St

Old Sonoma

Rd

4thA

v eW Imola Ave

Orchard Ave

Wes

tvie

wD

r

Dry Creek Rd

Soscol Ave

3rd St

Jefferson St

Lincoln Ave

Big Ranch Rd

Trancas St

Montic

ello

Rd

Hagen

Rd

Vichy Ave

SilveradoTrl

Foot

hill

Blvd

Buhman Ave

Ash St

W Lincoln Ave

Yajome St

Carol D

r

Laurel St

S Ter

race

Dr

Terr

ace

Dr

Coo

mbs

St

ShurtleffA

ve

Main St

W Pueblo Ave

Shetler Ave

Salvador Ave

Kilburn Ave

2nd St

Trower Ave

FosterRd

Golde

nG

ate

Dr

Linda Vista Ave

Driv

eway

Montecito Blv d

East

Ave

Oak St

MonteVist aD

r

SF

r anklin St

Wine Country Ave

E Spring St

W Park Ave

Muller Dr

Oxford St

Vine Hill D r

Fran

klin

St

A St

Scenic Dr

Sierra Ave

P artric k Rd

G St

Pine

wood

Dr

Spring StGeorgia St

Beard Rd

Pine St

Kansas Ave

Central Ave

Twin OaksD

r

F airfax

Dr

Source: Napa County, 2018; City of Napa, 2021; Dyett and Bhatia, 2021

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 Feet

0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 Mile

25Acres

100Acres

'JHVSF����Draft Land Use Plan

NapaValley

College

NapaHigh

School

VintageHigh

SchoolJustin-SienaHigh

School

KennedyPark

AlstonPark

Stanly RanchSouth Wetlands

Open Space

Map Update:2/12/2021

Map Base

City of Napa

Sphere of Influence

2040 General Plan Area

Napa River

WestwoodHills

TrancasCrossing

SouthJefferson

Park

Focus Areas

Downtown Area Specific Plan

ResidentialVery Low Density Residential

Low Density ResidentialMedium Density Residential

High Density Residential

Traditional Residential

CommercialHospitality Commercial

General Commercial

Business Professional

Mixed-UseResidential Mixed-Use

Corridor Mixed-Use Low

Corridor Mixed-Use High

Napa Pipe Mixed-UseDowntown Specific Plan

Downtown Core Commercial

Downtown Mixed-Use

Downtown NeighborhoodDowntown Public

Oxbow Commercial

Downtown Parks and Open Space

Public-InstitutionalPublic-Serving

AgricultureOpen Space & Parks

GreenbeltIndustrial

Light Industrial

Business Park

ATTACHMENT 6