narclim: regional climate simulations over …ísfb.cat/curriculum/condocs/narclim_intro.pdfnarclim:...
TRANSCRIPT
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NARCliM: Regional climate simulations over
Australia. Long term analysis
L. Fita
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, CNRS-UPMC, Jussieu, Paris, France
LMD - Réunion Climat – January 11th 2016, Paris
Contact: [email protected]
– p. 1
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Introduction
• Regional climate? But, why?
– p. 2
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Introduction
• Regional climate? But, why?
• On the different IPCC reports (www.ipcc.ch):
– p. 2
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Introduction
• Regional climate? But, why?
• On the different IPCC reports (www.ipcc.ch):
• Evolution of Horizontal resolutions and complexity of Global Climate Models(GCMs):
[IPCC, AR4, 1997]– p. 2
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Introduction
• Regional climate? But, why?
• On the different IPCC reports (www.ipcc.ch):
• Regional climate simulations to improve representation of a given zone [F.
Giorgi, 91, Rev. Geophys.]
– p. 2
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Introduction
• Regional climate? But, why?
• On the different IPCC reports (www.ipcc.ch):
• Regional climate simulations to improve representation of a given zone [F.
Giorgi, 91, Rev. Geophys.]
− Better representation of the orography/morphology
− Better representation of the atmospheric processes
− Better representation of the small scales
– p. 2
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Introduction
• Regional climate? But, why?
• On the different IPCC reports (www.ipcc.ch):
• Regional climate simulations to improve representation of a given zone [F.
Giorgi, 91, Rev. Geophys.]
− Better representation of the orography/morphology
− Better representation of the atmospheric processes
− Better representation of the small scales
IPSL-CMIP5 IPSL-CMIP5 EuroCordex (0.44◦)
– p. 2
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Methodology: Regional Climate Simulation
• There is not computational resources to run global climate simulations at
high resolutions (< 10 km)
– p. 3
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Methodology: Regional Climate Simulation
• There is not computational resources to run global climate simulations at
high resolutions (< 10 km)
• GCMs provide global climate evolution
– p. 3
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Methodology: Regional Climate Simulation
• There is not computational resources to run global climate simulations at
high resolutions (< 10 km)
• GCMs provide global climate evolution
• Regional model to simulate at higher resolution, but smaller region
– p. 3
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Methodology: Regional Climate Simulation
• There is not computational resources to run global climate simulations at
high resolutions (< 10 km)
• GCMs provide global climate evolution
• Regional model to simulate at higher resolution, but smaller region
• Scale of climate simulations. Climate information at low resolution fromGCM, downscaled by the regional model.
GCM → RCM
– p. 3
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Methodology: Regional Climate Simulation
• There is not computational resources to run global climate simulations at
high resolutions (< 10 km)
• GCMs provide global climate evolution
• Regional model to simulate at higher resolution, but smaller region
• Scale of climate simulations. Climate information at low resolution fromGCM, downscaled by the regional model.
GCM → RCM
• GCM data: initial and boundary conditions for RCM
– p. 3
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Methodology: Regional Climate Simulation
• There is not computational resources to run global climate simulations at
high resolutions (< 10 km)
• GCMs provide global climate evolution
• Regional model to simulate at higher resolution, but smaller region
• Scale of climate simulations. Climate information at low resolution fromGCM, downscaled by the regional model.
GCM → RCM
• GCM data: initial and boundary conditions for RCM
– p. 3
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Methodology: Regional Climate Simulation
• There is not computational resources to run global climate simulations at
high resolutions (< 10 km)
• GCMs provide global climate evolution
• Regional model to simulate at higher resolution, but smaller region
• Scale of climate simulations. Climate information at low resolution fromGCM, downscaled by the regional model.
GCM → RCM
• GCM data: initial and boundary conditions for RCM
• Expected results:
− Main synoptic climate characteristics: Temperature, jet position, stormtrack... from GCM
− Improvement on representation of extreme events
− Improvement on representation of local phenomena: clouds, seabreeze, convection, fog, katabatic/anabatic winds, ...
– p. 3
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NARCliM project
• Collaborative Work with Dr. Daniel Argüeso and A. Prof. Jason P. Evans
– p. 4
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NARCliM project
• Collaborative Work with Dr. Daniel Argüeso and A. Prof. Jason P. Evans
•
http://climatechange.environment.nsw.gov.au/Climate-projections-
– p. 4
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NARCliM project
• Collaborative Work with Dr. Daniel Argüeso and A. Prof. Jason P. Evans
•
http://climatechange.environment.nsw.gov.au/Climate-projections-
• Regional Climate modeling project for Australia for the NSW and ACT
– p. 4
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NARCliM project
• Collaborative Work with Dr. Daniel Argüeso and A. Prof. Jason P. Evans
•
http://climatechange.environment.nsw.gov.au/Climate-projections-
• Regional Climate modeling project for Australia for the NSW and ACT
• Two domains of simulation (50 [CORDEX, AUS44] and 10 Km) with WRF3.3
– p. 4
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NARCliM project
• Collaborative Work with Dr. Daniel Argüeso and A. Prof. Jason P. Evans
•
http://climatechange.environment.nsw.gov.au/Climate-projections-
• Regional Climate modeling project for Australia for the NSW and ACT
• Two domains of simulation (50 [CORDEX, AUS44] and 10 Km) with WRF3.3
– p. 4
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NARCliM project
• Collaborative Work with Dr. Daniel Argüeso and A. Prof. Jason P. Evans
•
http://climatechange.environment.nsw.gov.au/Climate-projections-
• Regional Climate modeling project for Australia for the NSW and ACT
• Two domains of simulation (50 [CORDEX, AUS44] and 10 Km) with WRF3.3
• Climate uncertainty → Ensemble of 12 members: 4 GCM as forcing + 3
WRF physic configurations. [Evans et al., 2014, Geosci. Model Dev]
– p. 4
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NARCliM project
• Collaborative Work with Dr. Daniel Argüeso and A. Prof. Jason P. Evans
•
http://climatechange.environment.nsw.gov.au/Climate-projections-
• Regional Climate modeling project for Australia for the NSW and ACT
• Two domains of simulation (50 [CORDEX, AUS44] and 10 Km) with WRF3.3
• Climate uncertainty → Ensemble of 12 members: 4 GCM as forcing + 3
WRF physic configurations. [Evans et al., 2014, Geosci. Model Dev]
• GCMs and WRF configuration following criteria of independence and
performance [Bishop & Abramowitz, 2013, Clim. Dyn.]
– p. 4
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NARCliM project
• Collaborative Work with Dr. Daniel Argüeso and A. Prof. Jason P. Evans
•
http://climatechange.environment.nsw.gov.au/Climate-projections-
• Regional Climate modeling project for Australia for the NSW and ACT
• Two domains of simulation (50 [CORDEX, AUS44] and 10 Km) with WRF3.3
• Climate uncertainty → Ensemble of 12 members: 4 GCM as forcing + 3
WRF physic configurations. [Evans et al., 2014, Geosci. Model Dev]
• GCMs and WRF configuration following criteria of independence and
performance [Bishop & Abramowitz, 2013, Clim. Dyn.]
– p. 4
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NARCliM project
• Final Ensemble: 4 GCMs x 3 WRF physics
GCMs
MIROC
ECHAM5
CCCMA3.1
MK3.0
×WRF
pbl&sfc cu mp rad
MY J/Eta KF WDM 5 Dudhia/RRTM
MY J/Eta BMJ WDM 5 Dudhia/RRTM
Y SU/MM5 KF WDM 5 CAM/CAM
– p. 5
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NARCliM project
• Final Ensemble: 4 GCMs x 3 WRF physics
GCMs
MIROC
ECHAM5
CCCMA3.1
MK3.0
×WRF
pbl&sfc cu mp rad
MY J/Eta KF WDM 5 Dudhia/RRTM
MY J/Eta BMJ WDM 5 Dudhia/RRTM
Y SU/MM5 KF WDM 5 CAM/CAM
• 3 time-windows: 1990-2009, 2020-2039, 2060-2079 and control period withNNRP: 1950-2009
– p. 5
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NARCliM project
• Final Ensemble: 4 GCMs x 3 WRF physics
GCMs
MIROC
ECHAM5
CCCMA3.1
MK3.0
×WRF
pbl&sfc cu mp rad
MY J/Eta KF WDM 5 Dudhia/RRTM
MY J/Eta BMJ WDM 5 Dudhia/RRTM
Y SU/MM5 KF WDM 5 CAM/CAM
• 3 time-windows: 1990-2009, 2020-2039, 2060-2079 and control period withNNRP: 1950-2009
• Weak spectral nudging [von Storch et al, 2000, Mon. Weather Rev.] winds andgeopotential, down 500 hPa, d01
– p. 5
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NARCliM project
• Final Ensemble: 4 GCMs x 3 WRF physics
GCMs
MIROC
ECHAM5
CCCMA3.1
MK3.0
×WRF
pbl&sfc cu mp rad
MY J/Eta KF WDM 5 Dudhia/RRTM
MY J/Eta BMJ WDM 5 Dudhia/RRTM
Y SU/MM5 KF WDM 5 CAM/CAM
• 3 time-windows: 1990-2009, 2020-2039, 2060-2079 and control period withNNRP: 1950-2009
• Weak spectral nudging [von Storch et al, 2000, Mon. Weather Rev.] winds andgeopotential, down 500 hPa, d01
• Permanent contact with stake-holders and funding agencies to meet
demands: A list of about 50 variables were finally provided
– p. 5
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NARCliM project
• Final Ensemble: 4 GCMs x 3 WRF physics
GCMs
MIROC
ECHAM5
CCCMA3.1
MK3.0
×WRF
pbl&sfc cu mp rad
MY J/Eta KF WDM 5 Dudhia/RRTM
MY J/Eta BMJ WDM 5 Dudhia/RRTM
Y SU/MM5 KF WDM 5 CAM/CAM
• 3 time-windows: 1990-2009, 2020-2039, 2060-2079 and control period withNNRP: 1950-2009
• Weak spectral nudging [von Storch et al, 2000, Mon. Weather Rev.] winds andgeopotential, down 500 hPa, d01
• Permanent contact with stake-holders and funding agencies to meet
demands: A list of about 50 variables were finally provided
• A NON-NARCliM experiment at 2 km for the Sydney area was also carriedout (another talk)
– p. 5
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NARCliM: Control period results
• L. Fita, J. P. Evans, D. Argüeso, A. King and Y. Li: Evaluation of theregional climate response in Australia to large-scale climate modes in the
historical NARCliM simulations, Climate Dyanmics (2nd revision)
− Analysis of the bias of the 3 WRF physics to gridded observational data,AWAP, [Jones et al., 2009, Aus. Meteoro. Mag.]
− Analysis of the long term climate evolution in comparison with climatemodes
− Analysis based on grid points and in climate regions
– p. 6
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Data set-up
• Definition of spatial 14 regions by climate seasonal clustering (k-means,
[Argüeso et al., 2011, J. Climate] ) of pr, tasmin and tasmax
– p. 7
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Data set-up
• Definition of spatial 14 regions by climate seasonal clustering (k-means,
[Argüeso et al., 2011, J. Climate] ) of pr, tasmin and tasmax
reg. climate reg. climate
1 extreme dry desert 2 alpine temperate
3 tropical 4 desert + tropical storm
5 semi-desert 6 desert + storm
7 temperate wet 8 Mediterranean
9 alpine wet 10 coastal sub-tropical
11 desert 12 tropical
13 tropical 14 mountain sub-tropical
– p. 7
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Data set-up
• Definition of spatial 14 regions by climate seasonal clustering (k-means,
[Argüeso et al., 2011, J. Climate] ) of pr, tasmin and tasmax
• Masking of the gridded data-based by means of: availability of station datain both space and time
– p. 7
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Data set-up
• Definition of spatial 14 regions by climate seasonal clustering (k-means,
[Argüeso et al., 2011, J. Climate] ) of pr, tasmin and tasmax
• Masking of the gridded data-based by means of: availability of station datain both space and time
minimum distance of 100km for precipitation and 150km for temperature; minimum period of
data used is 25 years for precipitation and 15 years for temperature; and the minimum
percentage of data present is 20% for precipitation and 10% for temperature
– p. 7
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Bias results
− general positive bias all RCMs
− R2 smallest bias
− All over-estimate precipitation along the Great Dividing Range
− R1 and R3 consistently overestimate precipitation in northern Australia,(tropical convection, monsoon). Use of the Kain-Fristch cumulusparameterization. R2 (Betts-Miller-Janjic)
− RCM biases different from reanalysis (NNRP)
– p. 8
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Bias results
− R3 different biases than R1 and R2
− R1, R2 southward bias increasing.
– p. 8
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Bias results
− RCMs negative bias
− Largest bias in the south-east
− RCMs’ biases independent of those in the driving reanalysis (NNRP).
− No correspondence between more precipitation + cooler temperatures[Power, 1998, Aus Meteo. Mag.] . bias fom intensity? instead of frequency(more cloudiness)?
– p. 8
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Bias results
− Seasonal sensitivity only for
NNRP, R2 and in JJA (Winter) for
all models. Equatorwards shift of
the storm track
− Strong overestimation in the
northern tropical region R1 and
R3. (Kain-Fritsch cumulus
scheme too active)
− Small bias along the Great Divid-
ing Range in JJA
– p. 8
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Regional results
− 4 representative regions: 7, 8, 9, 13
− Small tendency to over/underestimate in summer/winter
− reg. 8 south-west coast underestimation increases higher amounts (related to storm
tracks)
− reg. 9 western Tasmania, strong topographic influences not adequately captured at 50 km
− Better representation over tropical regions (12, 13) by re-analysis io dry season JJA
– p. 9
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Regional results
− Gross features wellrepresented
− R1 and R3 over-estimateinter-annual variability
− RCMs reproduce wetperiods of 1950s or 1970snot seen by re-analyses
− R3 largest differences
– p. 9
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Regional results
− Observed warming ten-
dency hotter in RCMs (notappreciable in the NNRP).
– p. 9
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LongTerm: correlation results
• Grid point correlations with temporal series of climate modes
Index Period Source
Niño 1+2 1950-2009 NOAA
Niño 3.4 1950-2009 KNMI
IPO 1950-2007 MO-HCCC
SOI 1951-2009 NOAA
DMI 1958-2009 JAMSTEC
Blocking 1950-2009 CCRC, P. Mahler using NOAA 20CR re-analysis
SAM 1957-2009 BAS
– p. 10
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LongTerm: correlation results
SON pracc SON tasmin SON tasmax
− For pracc RCM larger area, NNRP shows weaker correlations at East.
− tasmin dipole pattern south-west the north-east
− tasmax less significant and models generally fail negative correlation East
− Rmean shows a better correlation map except for precipitation with a clear stronger and
wider positive correlation– p. 10
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LongTerm: correlation results
SON pracc SON tasmin SON tasmax
− Only results for SON (largest correlations)
− SOI, niño 3.4 and blocking highest correlations
− RCMs better regional correlations with precipitation.
− RCMs overestimate corr. tasmin underestimate tasmax
– p. 10
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LongTerm: correlation results
SOI pracc SOI tasmin SOI tasmax
− Maximum correlated index grid-point map (SON, only)
− Precipitation kind of correct, but different maps
− Over dependence on the DMI index in certain parts
– p. 10
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Conclusions
• RCMs tend to generally improve climate representation in a complexclimate region as Australia, but not all aspects
– p. 11
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Conclusions
• RCMs tend to generally improve climate representation in a complexclimate region as Australia, but not all aspects
• Long term simulations allow to analyze long term climate characteristics
– p. 11
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Conclusions
• RCMs tend to generally improve climate representation in a complexclimate region as Australia, but not all aspects
• Long term simulations allow to analyze long term climate characteristics
• Good RCM spread following independence-performance
– p. 11
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Conclusions
• RCMs tend to generally improve climate representation in a complexclimate region as Australia, but not all aspects
• Long term simulations allow to analyze long term climate characteristics
• Good RCM spread following independence-performance
• Some RCMs results even better than re-analysis (model, variable, region
and seasonal dependency)
– p. 11
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Conclusions
• RCMs tend to generally improve climate representation in a complexclimate region as Australia, but not all aspects
• Long term simulations allow to analyze long term climate characteristics
• Good RCM spread following independence-performance
• Some RCMs results even better than re-analysis (model, variable, region
and seasonal dependency)
• Complementary information about RCM performance: better representationof teleconnections with climate modes in many cases, but wrongly in others
– p. 11
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Conclusions
• RCMs tend to generally improve climate representation in a complexclimate region as Australia, but not all aspects
• Long term simulations allow to analyze long term climate characteristics
• Good RCM spread following independence-performance
• Some RCMs results even better than re-analysis (model, variable, region
and seasonal dependency)
• Complementary information about RCM performance: better representationof teleconnections with climate modes in many cases, but wrongly in others
Thank you for your attention!!– p. 11