narpm broker / owner retreat february 2012 · 2014. 6. 20. · family rental operators 31 60 0 10...

Please refer to the end of the slide presentation for disclosure information.

Ivy Zelman Dennis McGill, CFA Alan Ratner, CFA Dave Bragg212-993-5831 212-993-5833 212-993-5834 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Scott Rednor Ryan McKeveny Kevin Rate212-993-5842 212-993-5837 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Zelman & AssociatesNARPM Broker / Owner Retreat

February 2012

Ivy Zelman Dennis McGill, CFA Alan Ratner, CFA Dave Bragg212-993-5831 212-993-5833 212-993-5834 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Scott Rednor Ryan McKeveny Kevin Rate Matt Miller212-993-5842 212-993-5837 212-993-5830 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

A Deep Dive into Housing

Demographics2

Rounding Out the Housing Mosaic

3Source: Census Bureau, Zelman & Associates analysis Note: Total households = 116.7 million

4

An All-Encompassing View of the Housing Market

Source: Census Bureau, Zelman & Associates analysis

2010 Census - Units in Millions Single-Family2-4 Unit Multi-

Family5-Plus Multi-

FamilyManufactured

Housing TotalTotal Housing Units 88.8 10.9 23.5 8.6 131.7

% of Total Housing Units 67% 8% 18% 7% 100%

Households 80.4 9.2 20.0 7.1 116.7% of Households 69% 8% 17% 6% 100%

Population 221.7 21.9 39.1 18.1 300.8% of Total Population 74% 7% 13% 6% 100%Persons / Households 2.76 2.37 1.96 2.55 2.58

Owner-Occupied Households 66.8 1.6 2.4 5.2 76.0% of Owner-Occupied Households 88% 2% 3% 7% 100%

Owner-Occupied Population 180.4 3.9 4.2 12.8 201.3% of Owned Population 90% 2% 2% 6% 100%

Renter-Occupied Households 13.7 7.6 17.5 1.9 40.7% of Renter-Occupied Households 34% 19% 43% 5% 100%

Renter-Occupied Population 41.3 18.0 34.9 5.2 99.5% of Rental Population 41% 18% 35% 5% 100%

Depressed Household Formation Temporarily Reducing Requirement for New Housing Stock

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Jan-

00

May

-00

Sep-

00

Jan-

01

May

-01

Sep-

01

Jan-

02

May

-02

Sep-

02

Jan-

03

May

-03

Sep-

03

Jan-

04

May

-04

Sep-

04

Jan-

05

May

-05

Sep-

05

Jan-

06

May

-06

Sep-

06

Jan-

07

May

-07

Sep-

07

Jan-

08

May

-08

Sep-

08

Jan-

09

May

-09

Sep-

09

Jan-

10

May

-10

Sep-

10

Jan-

11

May

-11

Sep-

11

6-Month Average Household Growth

2000-09 Average

2010-19 Estimate

Note: Monthly household estimates are highly volatile and should be viewed in that context

5Source: Census Bureau, Zelman & Associates analysis

Economic Environment Has Temporarily Stunted Household Formation

62.3%

33.4%

15.4%

7.8%5.9%

62.6%

37.7%

19.0%

9.1%

5.7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

18-21 22-24 25-29 30-34 35-39

20-Year Average 1Q11

Percentage of Adult Children Living With Parents

Above-Average Share of 22-34 Year Olds Indicative of Doubling Up


Job Growth Was Strongest Since 2006, Positive for Household Formation

7Source: BLS, Zelman & Associates analysis

311

(857)

1,152

2,791

3,851

2,150

2,794

3,357 3,001

3,173

1,953

(1,762)

(540)

87

2,047

2,496

2,069

1,100

(3,603)

(5,060)

1,027

1,820

(6,000)

(5,000)

(4,000)

(3,000)

(2,000)

(1,000)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,00019

90

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Absolute Annual Change in Nonfarm PayrollsUnits in Thousands

Recent Job Growth Has Been Driven by Younger, Household-Forming Ages

8Source: BLS, Zelman & Associates analysis

35%

73%

-31%

10%

31%

12%

23%

-12%

38% 37%

65%

56%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

20-34 Year Olds as % of Change in Payrolls

Age of Households Typically Dictate the Types of Housing Needed to Shelter Population

43%

57%

69%

75%

79%

81% 82%83% 82% 82%

81%80%

74%

34%

50%

64%

73%

76%78%

80% 80% 80% 79%78%

75%

68%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-Plus

Max

Median

MinSingle-Family / Manufactured Housing Share of Households

1992-2010

Lifestyle changes of marriage and children impact early housing decisions; death and health impact later housing choices



$86,

690

$80,

630

$74,

040

$71,

670

$73,

500

$87,

340

$109

,620

$40,

800

$47,

180

$47,

970

$38,

370

$37,

790

$39,

980

$39,

960

$45,

520

$29,

160

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

SFD SFA 2-4 Apt 5-9 Apt 10-19Apt

20-49Apt

50+Apt

MH SFD SFA 2-4 Apt 5-9 Apt 10-19Apt

20-49Apt

50+Apt

MH

Owner-Occupied Household Income Renter-Occupied Household Income

Choice of Shelter Driven By Lifestyle,Owning Driven By Financial Situation

11

The Single-Family Rental Market

The Single-Family Rental Market


In Fact, Single-Family Rentals Have Been The Biggest Beneficiary of Foreclosures

-0.7%

26.7%

3.8%

9.1%

12.5%

8.6%

0.1%

14.9%

4.6%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Single-FamilyOwned

Single-FamilyRented

2-4 UnitOwned

2-4 UnitRented

5-Plus UnitOwned

5-Plus UnitRented

TotalOwned

TotalRented

Total

Change in Households2011 versus 2005

Foreclosures are primarily shifting occupants to single-family rentals, not apartments


Apartments Seeing Virtually No Boost in Most Distressed Markets

0.2%

66.8%

9.4% 10.5%

1.2%

30.9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Single-FamilyOwned

Single-FamilyRented

5-Plus UnitOwned

5-Plus UnitRented

Total Owned Total Rented

Change in Households in AZ, FL and NV2011 versus 2005

Foreclosures are primarily shifting occupants to single-family rentals, not apartments


15

Single-Family Renters More Likely to Have Owned Home, Been Foreclosed On

Source: Zelman & Associates Renter Survey

32%

42%

35%

16%

31%

22%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Multi-Family Renter Single-Family Renter All Renters

Owned A Home Foreclosure Victim

Have you ever owned a home? If you previously owned a home were you foreclosed on?

Foreclosures Are More Beneficial to Single-Family Rental Operators

31

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Apartment Operators Single-Family Property Managers

Rate the benefit to your business from former homeowners that fell victim to foreclosure.

On a scale of 0-1000 = No benefit

100 = Great benefit

16Note: Figures represent trailing six-month averageSource: Zelman & Associates Single-Family Rental Survey

Only 16% of Single-Family Renters Come from Apartments

17Source: Zelman & Associates Single-Family Rental Survey

The Majority of Single-Family Renters Leave to Rent Another House


Current Move-Out to Buy Activity is Well Below Long-Term Average Level

12.5%

20.4%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

Last Twelve Month Average Long-Term Average

What percentage of your departing tenants buy homes when they depart one of your rentals?


On Average, Contacts Estimate that 25% of Residents are Below Market Rents


Single-Family Rental Managers Raising Renewals By Average of 3%

1.7%

2.1%

1.8%

2.1% 2.0%

2.2%

3.0%2.9%

2.9%

3.2%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

Apr-11 May-11 July-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12

By approximately how much are you raising rents on renewing residents?


Contacts Remain Optimistic on Rent Growth Outlook

5.0%

6.2%

7.8%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

Current Next Twelve Months Months 13-24

Current New Move-In Pricing and Rent Growth Outlook


‘Reluctant Landlords’ Wait from Home Price Appreciation

20

23

21

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12

Please rate the appetite of your investor clients to sell their rental properties within the next year:

0 = Very Little Interest100 = Very Strong Interest


Majority of Contacts Expect to Grow Through Transfer to Professional Management


25

Single-Family For-Sale Market and

Housing Affordability

Homeownership Rate Expected to Remain Under Pressure During First Half of the Decade

69.2%

67.0%

64.5%65.1%

67.2%

60%

62%

64%

66%

68%

70%

72%20

00 R

ate

Age

Prop

ensi

ty

Rac

e

2005

Rat

e

Age

Prop

ensi

ty

Rac

e

2010

Rat

e

Age

Prop

ensi

ty

Rac

e

2015

Rat

e

Age

Prop

ensi

ty

Rac

e

2020

Rat

e

Expected pipeline of delinquencies and

foreclosures

Modest benefit as housing downturn fades from memory, mortgage

availability normalizes

Foreclosures and recession

Healthy economy, favorable consumer

view of housing, home price

appreciation and easy mortgage credit

Drivers of Homeownership RateData Based on Housing Vacancy Survey


Home Prices Have Never Been Cheaper Over Last 30 Years, Per Consumers

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,0001Q

80

1Q81

1Q82

1Q83

1Q84

1Q85

1Q86

1Q87

1Q88

1Q89

1Q90

1Q91

1Q92

1Q93

1Q94

1Q95

1Q96

1Q97

1Q98

1Q99

1Q00

1Q01

1Q02

1Q03

1Q04

1Q05

1Q06

1Q07

1Q08

1Q09

1Q10

1Q11

Single-Family Housing Starts Home Price Optimism Index - 5 Quarter Lead

Note: Consumers' Views of Home Prices Lead New Home Construction by 4-6 Quarters; High Values of Home Price Optimism Index Imply Housing is Cheap, According to Consumers

27Source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, Zelman & Associates analysis

Mortgage Payment Implies Homes Are Affordable But Lack of Down Payment a Major Impediment

28Source: CoreLogic, Mortgage Bankers Association, Zelman & Associates analysis

$812

$1,168

$796$787

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

1Q00

Pay

men

t

Hom

e P

rice

Mor

tgag

e R

ate

2Q03

Pay

men

t

Hom

e P

rice

Mor

tgag

e R

ate

2Q06

Pay

men

t

Hom

e P

rice

Mor

tgag

e R

ate

1Q11

Pay

men

t

Monthly Payment on 3.5% FHA Down Payment Mortgage

29

Few Households Can Afford Down Payment Today

32%

37%

40%

27%

33%

46%

50%

36%

30%

36%

50%

33%

41%

32%33%32%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75 - Plus All Ages

Multi-Family Renters Single-Family Renters

Percent of Renters that Have Savings Equal to 3.5% of Median Existing Home Price


Low P&I as Percent of Income Ignores Down Payment Hurdle, Maintenance Expenses

39%

46%

43%

35% 36%

32%

27%

27%

27%

27%

26%

25%

24%

22% 24

%

23%

22%

22%

21% 21

% 23%

22%

22%

22% 23

% 25% 26

%

24%

20%

16%

16%

14%

22% 24

%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%19

80

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Oct

-11

Ave

r…

Med

ian

Monthly Principal & Interest on a 30-Year FRM as % of Income (assumes 10% down payment and median existing home price)

30Source: NAR, Zelman & Associates analysis

The Simplistic Comparison of P&I-to-Rent Will Look Increasingly Favorable

1.07 1.06

1.01

1.071.13

1.04

1.11 1.12

1.19

1.301.33

1.25

1.09

0.910.86

0.810.78 0.76

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E

Monthly Principal & Interest Cost Versus Rent CostAssumes Median Home Price and 10% Downpayment

31Source: Moody’s Economy.com, Axiometrics, Zelman & Associates analysis

Collapse in Home Prices and Low Rates Put Carrying Costs in Favorable Light

32Source: Axiometrics, MBA, NAR, Zelman & Associates Single-Family Rental Manager Survey, Zelman & Associates analysis

$1,065 $1,056

$1,374

$819

$1,023 $1,100

$977

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

3Q00 3Q03 3Q06 3Q11 With Insurance,Taxes

Single-FamilyRent

Apartment Rent

Principal and Interest Payment on 3.5% FHA Down Payment Mortgage for Median Existing Home Note: Monthly ownership cost

assumes 1% for taxes and $750 per year of insurance and

excludes benefit of interest deduction. Both ownership and

rental cost excludes maintenance expenditures

Note: Apartment Rent Represents Unit Size of 917 Square FeetAccording to Z&A Survey, Average Square Footage of a Single-Family Rental is 1,509 feet

Market Comparison of Monthly Cost to Rent an Apartment and Own a Single-Family Home

1.82

1.82

1.78

1.69

1.64

1.55

1.49

1.48

1.47

1.38

1.32

1.29

1.26

1.23

1.13

1.13

1.11

1.10

1.09

1.02

1.01

1.00

0.99

0.96

0.96

0.92

0.92

0.73

1.06

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

Ora

nge

Cou

nty

San

Fra

ncis

co B

ay A

rea

Ral

eigh

San

Jos

e

Cha

rlotte

San

Die

go

Den

ver

Sea

ttle

Aus

tin

Ric

hmon

d

Hou

ston

Bal

timor

e

Nas

hvill

e

Was

hing

ton

DC

Dal

las

New

Yor

k M

etro

Bos

ton

Phi

lade

lphi

a

Los

Ange

les

Chi

cago

Pho

enix

Jack

sonv

ille

Mem

phis

Sou

th F

L

Tam

pa

Orla

ndo

Inla

nd E

mpi

re

Atla

nta

Uni

ted

Sta

tes

All-In Monthly Cost to Own (Conventional Mortage) Relative to Total Apartment Rent Costs

33Source: NAR, Axiometrics, Tax Foundation, Zelman & Associates analysis

34

The American Dream is Still Alive82% of 25-34 Year Old Renters Want to Own in Next Five Years


69%

83%

69%

60%

50%

21%

8%

73%

82%

72%

61%

41%

82%

0%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75 - Plus

Multi-Family Renters Single-Family Renters

Share of Renters that want to Own a Single-Family Home in the Next Five Years

35

Renters Choose Dwelling First, Then Decide Whether to Rent or Buy

59.9% 57.3%

16.2%20.7%

16.4% 18.5%

49.8% 42.0%

18.0% 19.8%

27.7%30.7%

5.6% 4.4% 6.4% 6.7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Mult-Family Renters 25-34 Multi-FamilyRenters

Single-Family Renters 25-34 Single-FamilyRenters

Move in with Family or Friend

Buy A House

Rent a Single-Family Home

Rent an Apartment

If you were to move from your current rental, which choice would you likely make?


Not Surprisingly, Married Couples More Likely to Desire Homeownership

94%

89%

83% 82% 81%

78%76%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

Married ApartmentRenter

Married Single-Family Renter

All ApartmentRenters

All Respondents All Single-FamilyRenters

Single Single-Family Renter

Single ApartmentRenter

Percentage of 25-34 Year Old Householders that Want to Own a Single-Family Home in Next Five Years

36Source: Zelman & Associates Renter Survey

What Percentage of Renters that Want to Own Could Pull the Trigger?

50%

43% 42%39%

36%

33%

24%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Married ApartmentRenter

Married Single-Family Renter

All ApartmentRenters

All Respondents Single ApartmentRenter

All Single-FamilyRenters

Single Single-Family Renter

Percentage of 25-34 Year Old Householders that Want to Own a Single-Family Home in Next Five Years AND Have

Savings Equal to 3.5% Down Payment

37Source: Zelman & Associates Renter Survey

38

Higher Income and Low Mortgage Rates Expected to Drive Decision Making

84

7572 72

66

62

69

86

7775

79

66

5956

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Higher Income Lower mortgagerates

A further decline inhome prices

Improved JobSecurity

Greater ConfidenceHome is Good

Investment

Rent increases Plans to start a family

25-34 Year Old Multi-Family Renters 25-34 Year Old Single-Family Renters

Most Important Catalyst to Buying a Single-Family Home in Next Five Years (0 = Not Important; 100 = Very Important)


Many Homeowners are Hindered by Negative Equity, But Many Also Own or Have Robust Equity

39Source: CoreLogic, Census Bureau, Zelman & Associates analysis

Negative Equity in Depressed Housing Markets to Keep Housing Turnover Low

58%

47%

44%

35%

30% 30%

23%22%

15%14%

12% 11%10%

7%6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

NV AZ FL MI CA GA ID US SC TN NC IN TX PA NY

Share of Mortgage Holders With Negative Equity in Key StatesAs of 3Q11

Note: 22 states covering 40% of households average less than 15% whilesix states covering 25% of households average more than 25%.

40Source: CoreLogic, Zelman & Associates analysis

We Forecast Modest Home Price Deflation in 2012

10%

14%

15%

6%

-4%

-13%

-11%

0%

-4%

-2%

11%

14% 14%

1%

-8%

-16%

-3% -3%-4%

-2%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%20

03

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

E

2012

E

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

E

2012

E

Change in Existing Home Prices

Average Change Year-End Change

41Source: Zelman & Associates analysis

42

Apartment Fundamentals

New Move-in and Renewal Pricing Power Flattish in Seasonally Slow Month

2.3%

2.9%

2.8%

3.5%

3.3% 3.

5%

4.3% 4.

4%

5.6% 5.

8%

5.6% 5.

7%

5.6%

4.8%

4.7% 4.

8% 4.9%

1.7%

2.1%

2.6% 2.

7%

2.7%

3.2%

4.2%

4.0%

4.7% 5.

0% 5.1%

5.1%

4.8%

4.4% 4.

6%

4.4%

4.4%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12

New move-in Renewal

What level of change are you achieving today on new move-in and renewal rents?

43Source: Zelman & Associates Apartment Survey

Survey Contacts Forecast Moderate Rent Growth Deceleration

4.1%3.5%

3.1%

6.2%

-1.2%

-2.5%

-0.1%

1.9%

5.8%

3.8%

2.2%

-0.7%

-5.8%

4.4% 4.2% 4.2% 3.9%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E

Apartment Rent GrowthFourth Quarter versus Fourth Quarter

Note: Historical Figures per Axiometrics; Forecasts per Zelman Apartment Survey Axiometrics Forecasts 5.5% Growth in 2012 and 4.6% in 2013

44Source: Axiometrics, Zelman & Associates analysis

The Rent / Income Relationship Has Troughed, Supports Rent Growth Outlook

$35.5

$37.0

$38.9

$40.7

$42.0 $42.2 $42.4$43.3

$44.3

$46.3

$48.2

$50.2 $50.3$49.8 $49.8

$50.5$51.5

$52.8

20%

22%

24%

26%

28%

30%

$30.0

$35.0

$40.0

$45.0

$50.0

$55.0

$60.0

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E

Median Household Income(in Thousands) - left

Annual Rent to MedianHousehold Income - right

Forecasted Rent to Median Household Income

1996-2011 Average: 23.9%

45Source: Moody’s Economy.com, Axiometrics, Zelman & Associates analysis

Rents in Las Vegas, Phoenix and Orlando are Farthest From Peak Levels

-18.

9%

-11.

5%

-9.3

%

-8.4

% -6.6

%

-5.9

%

-5.5

%

-5.3

% -4.1

%

-4.0

%

-3.6

%

-3.3

%

-2.6

%

-2.0

%

-1.0

%

-0.7

%

-0.5

%

0.3% 0.8% 1.4%

3.3% 3.6%

3.8% 4.

5%

4.6% 6.

1% 7.1%

7.3%

7.6%

1.0%

-25.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%La

s Ve

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4Q11 Market Rent Versus Peak Market Rent (2005-08)

46Source: Axiometrics, Zelman & Associates analysis

San Jose and Houston Lead Job Growth Through December

3.0%

3.0%

2.8%

2.6%

2.3%

2.2%

2.1%

2.0%

1.8%

1.8%

1.7%

1.6%

1.5%

1.5%

1.4%

1.2%

1.1%

0.9%

0.7%

0.6%

0.6%

0.5%

0.5%

0.4%

0.4%

0.3%

0.2%

0.0%

-0.1

%

-0.2

%

1.3%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%S

an J

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Last Twelve Month Job Growth

47Source: Moody’s Economy.com, Zelman & Associates analysis

To Engage in our Free Exchange of Information, Please Contact Us:

Dave [email protected]

(212) 993-5835

48

49

Disclosures (1 of 2)

Analyst Certification

Each analyst of Zelman & Associates whose name appears on the front page of this research report hereby certifies that (i) the recommendations and opinions expressed in the research report accurately reflect the research analyst’s personal views about any and all of the securities or issuers discussed herein that are within such analyst’s coverage universe and (ii) no part of the research analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst in the research report.

Copyright © Zelman & Associates 2012. All rights reserved. All material presented in this document, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright to Zelman & Associates. None of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, or transmitted to or distributed to any other party, without the prior express written permission of Zelman & Associates.

This research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The information and opinions expressed in this research are not offers to sell or solicitations of an offer to buy any security or financial instrument. They do not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual clients. The information on any particular company referred to in this research may not reflect events occurring after the date of publication. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a complete loss of principal may occur.

Zelman & Associates Ratings System:BUY: The security is deemed under-priced by at least 10-15% relative to fair value. HOLD: The security is priced within approximately 10% of fair value. SELL: The security is deemed over-priced by at least 10-15% relative to fair value.

Zelman & Associates Distribution of Investment Ratings as of 12/31/2011:BUY: (33.3%; 0% Investment Banking Clients)HOLD: (63.7%; 0% Investment Banking Clients)SELL: (3.0%; 0% Investment Banking Clients)

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