narval - halo home · 6/ 58 narval post-frontal var(x) = 0.0377, 0.0394 std(x) = 0.1943, 0.1985...

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Christian Klepp, Stephan Bakan, Gerhard Peters, Bjorn Stevens, Lutz Hirsch, Johannes Quaa s Klima Campus Meteorologisches Institut, Universität Hamburg Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg NARVAL North Atlantic Rainfall Validation

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Page 1: NARVAL - HALO Home · 6/ 58 NARVAL Post-frontal VAR(x) = 0.0377, 0.0394 STD(x) = 0.1943, 0.1985 VAR(y) = 0.0046, 0.0213 STD(y) = 0.0680, 0.1677 RMSE = 0.19 ,0.36 BIAS = 0.18 ,0.32

Christian Klepp, Stephan Bakan, Gerhard Peters, Bjorn Stevens, Lutz Hirsch, Johannes Quaas

Klima Campus

Meteorologisches Institut, Universität HamburgMax-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg

NARVALNorth Atlantic Rainfall Validation

Page 2: NARVAL - HALO Home · 6/ 58 NARVAL Post-frontal VAR(x) = 0.0377, 0.0394 STD(x) = 0.1943, 0.1985 VAR(y) = 0.0046, 0.0213 STD(y) = 0.0680, 0.1677 RMSE = 0.19 ,0.36 BIAS = 0.18 ,0.32

NARVAL Partner

University of HamburgUniversity of CologneUniversity of LeipzigUniversity of MainzUniversity of FrankfurtUniversity of Heidelberg

Institute for Tropospheric Research, Leipzig

Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, HamburgMax Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz

DLR

no DFG funding yet

Page 3: NARVAL - HALO Home · 6/ 58 NARVAL Post-frontal VAR(x) = 0.0377, 0.0394 STD(x) = 0.1943, 0.1985 VAR(y) = 0.0046, 0.0213 STD(y) = 0.0680, 0.1677 RMSE = 0.19 ,0.36 BIAS = 0.18 ,0.32

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Ober-pfaffenhofen

NARVAL- Postfrontal

NARVAL- Trade

New Foundland

Barbados

Concept

cum

ulus

Page 4: NARVAL - HALO Home · 6/ 58 NARVAL Post-frontal VAR(x) = 0.0377, 0.0394 STD(x) = 0.1943, 0.1985 VAR(y) = 0.0046, 0.0213 STD(y) = 0.0680, 0.1677 RMSE = 0.19 ,0.36 BIAS = 0.18 ,0.32

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NARVAL Post-frontal

mm/h

HOAPS

mm/h

GPCP GPROF 6.0

mm/h

ECMWF

Hamburg Ocean-Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite data (SSM/I)

Global Precipitation Climatology Project

ECMWF numerical weather prediction model

Page 5: NARVAL - HALO Home · 6/ 58 NARVAL Post-frontal VAR(x) = 0.0377, 0.0394 STD(x) = 0.1943, 0.1985 VAR(y) = 0.0046, 0.0213 STD(y) = 0.0680, 0.1677 RMSE = 0.19 ,0.36 BIAS = 0.18 ,0.32

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NARVAL Post-frontal

REMO 137 Cases (24%)

Jan1988 to Dec 2001

GPROF6.0

Fre

quen

y oc

curr

ence

758 mesocyclone systems in HOAPS in 18 years

HOAPS 555 Cases REMO-C 296 Cases (53%)

ERA-40ERA-40 41 Cases ( 7%)(from 1994 to 1999 only)

Mesoscale system frequeny occurrence per month (twice daily) with precip > 1mm/h in the outflow region of the LabSea

Page 6: NARVAL - HALO Home · 6/ 58 NARVAL Post-frontal VAR(x) = 0.0377, 0.0394 STD(x) = 0.1943, 0.1985 VAR(y) = 0.0046, 0.0213 STD(y) = 0.0680, 0.1677 RMSE = 0.19 ,0.36 BIAS = 0.18 ,0.32

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NARVAL Post-frontal

VAR(x) = 0.0377, 0.0394STD(x) = 0.1943, 0.1985VAR(y) = 0.0046, 0.0213STD(y) = 0.0680, 0.1677RMSE = 0.19 ,0.36BIAS = 0.18 ,0.32r = 0.25, -0.46

Virga observed

r = 0.6

Disdrometer: temporal window± 45 min around individual SSM/I overpass

HOAPS: spatial window 110km centered around ship position

rincl_corr_neg=0.57rincl_corr_neg > 6min =0.94

Klepp et al., 2009 (in review)

Collocated ship to HOAPS satellite F13, F14, F15 data for 52 precip events Point-to-area validation for events shorter, longer 6 min duration

Page 7: NARVAL - HALO Home · 6/ 58 NARVAL Post-frontal VAR(x) = 0.0377, 0.0394 STD(x) = 0.1943, 0.1985 VAR(y) = 0.0046, 0.0213 STD(y) = 0.0680, 0.1677 RMSE = 0.19 ,0.36 BIAS = 0.18 ,0.32

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NARVAL Post-frontal

• Convective mesoscale postfrontal precipitation

• Deficit of existing satellite and NWP data to detect such systems

• Systems can lead to unpredicted high impact weather over Europe

• HOAPS – the Hamburg Ocean Atmosphere Parameters and fluxes from Satellite data climatology detects such systems

• in agreement with data from Voluntary Observing Ships

• These findings need to be validated in terms of quantitative amounts

Page 8: NARVAL - HALO Home · 6/ 58 NARVAL Post-frontal VAR(x) = 0.0377, 0.0394 STD(x) = 0.1943, 0.1985 VAR(y) = 0.0046, 0.0213 STD(y) = 0.0680, 0.1677 RMSE = 0.19 ,0.36 BIAS = 0.18 ,0.32

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NARVAL Trade cumulus

Page 9: NARVAL - HALO Home · 6/ 58 NARVAL Post-frontal VAR(x) = 0.0377, 0.0394 STD(x) = 0.1943, 0.1985 VAR(y) = 0.0046, 0.0213 STD(y) = 0.0680, 0.1677 RMSE = 0.19 ,0.36 BIAS = 0.18 ,0.32

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Unobstructed Trades

Mineral Ash Maximum

Deep Convection

Biomass BurningStatistics of Shallow Convection

NARVAL Trade cumulus

Page 10: NARVAL - HALO Home · 6/ 58 NARVAL Post-frontal VAR(x) = 0.0377, 0.0394 STD(x) = 0.1943, 0.1985 VAR(y) = 0.0046, 0.0213 STD(y) = 0.0680, 0.1677 RMSE = 0.19 ,0.36 BIAS = 0.18 ,0.32

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NARVAL Trade cumulus

ACPC Barbados Field Study

Page 11: NARVAL - HALO Home · 6/ 58 NARVAL Post-frontal VAR(x) = 0.0377, 0.0394 STD(x) = 0.1943, 0.1985 VAR(y) = 0.0046, 0.0213 STD(y) = 0.0680, 0.1677 RMSE = 0.19 ,0.36 BIAS = 0.18 ,0.32

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NARVAL Trade cumulus

The MPI-M (MIRA 36) Scanning Cloud Radar

Differential absorption lidar Five-channel Raman lidar

Page 12: NARVAL - HALO Home · 6/ 58 NARVAL Post-frontal VAR(x) = 0.0377, 0.0394 STD(x) = 0.1943, 0.1985 VAR(y) = 0.0046, 0.0213 STD(y) = 0.0680, 0.1677 RMSE = 0.19 ,0.36 BIAS = 0.18 ,0.32

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Additional MPI-M and U Cologne Instrumentation

• JENOPTIK CHM 15K Ceilometer. Measurement range to 0.03-15 km with 15 m resolution, multiple cloud layer detection, aerosol, cloud penetration depths and boundary layer height.

• Micro Rain Radar (MRR): Compact 24 GHz FMCW-radar, 10 - 200 m resolution. Drop size distributions, liquid water & drop fall speed characteristics.

• CCN Measurements?

• Microwave radiometer

Page 13: NARVAL - HALO Home · 6/ 58 NARVAL Post-frontal VAR(x) = 0.0377, 0.0394 STD(x) = 0.1943, 0.1985 VAR(y) = 0.0046, 0.0213 STD(y) = 0.0680, 0.1677 RMSE = 0.19 ,0.36 BIAS = 0.18 ,0.32

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HALO

Connecting Ground-Based Measurements to the large-scale structure of the lower troposphere, and ongoing satellite based remote sensing climatologies.

Page 14: NARVAL - HALO Home · 6/ 58 NARVAL Post-frontal VAR(x) = 0.0377, 0.0394 STD(x) = 0.1943, 0.1985 VAR(y) = 0.0046, 0.0213 STD(y) = 0.0680, 0.1677 RMSE = 0.19 ,0.36 BIAS = 0.18 ,0.32

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HALO Instrumentation

• HALO HAMP (Hamburg/DLR Microwave Package).

• DLR water-vapor DIAL and/or wind lidar.

• Dropsondes.

• Downward looking infrared and visible imagers.

• Fast 10 Hz state variables (U,V, W, T & Q).

• Liquid water measurements.

• Cloud Spectrometers.

• Aerosol/CCN Characterization.

Page 15: NARVAL - HALO Home · 6/ 58 NARVAL Post-frontal VAR(x) = 0.0377, 0.0394 STD(x) = 0.1943, 0.1985 VAR(y) = 0.0046, 0.0213 STD(y) = 0.0680, 0.1677 RMSE = 0.19 ,0.36 BIAS = 0.18 ,0.32

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HALO Deployment strategy

• 2-4 day missions: day 1 depart Oberpfaffenhofen; day 2 or 3 short flight over Barbados (optional); day 4 return to Oberpfaffenhofen.

• High-Altitude, remote-sensing ferry legs along trajectory of airmass advecting over Barbados.

• Dropsondes deployed along trajectories (ferry legs).

• Interception of Barbados-bound airmass along ferry, ideally coincident with overpass of polar orbiters. This interception should be 3-5 days upstream of target on outbound legs, 1-2 days upstream on return legs.

• In situ characterization (as endurance allows) of the lower troposphere, boundary layer, cloud, aerosol structure (and surface fluxes) at interception points, and in radar scanning volume upon landing/take-off at Barbados.

• Super-site overflights out- or inbound (Lindenberg, Cabauw, Chilbolton, ...)

Page 16: NARVAL - HALO Home · 6/ 58 NARVAL Post-frontal VAR(x) = 0.0377, 0.0394 STD(x) = 0.1943, 0.1985 VAR(y) = 0.0046, 0.0213 STD(y) = 0.0680, 0.1677 RMSE = 0.19 ,0.36 BIAS = 0.18 ,0.32

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Ober-pfaffenhofen

NARVAL- Postfrontal

NARVAL- Trade

New Foundland

Barbados

Concept

cum

ulus

Page 17: NARVAL - HALO Home · 6/ 58 NARVAL Post-frontal VAR(x) = 0.0377, 0.0394 STD(x) = 0.1943, 0.1985 VAR(y) = 0.0046, 0.0213 STD(y) = 0.0680, 0.1677 RMSE = 0.19 ,0.36 BIAS = 0.18 ,0.32

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Full science and “light” options

• “light”: only HAMP and dropsondes, potentially filling idle times

• optimum flight schedule:December-January-February for Northern routeMarch-April for Southern route

• if possible, better statistics by repeated flights

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• Kick-off meeting 11-12 November in Hamburg(please contact Lutz Hirsch <[email protected]>)

• Bellypod ahead of windpods and PMS in certification

• HAMP ground-based version (mobile on trailer) exists

• Certification relatively advanced (expected spring 2010)

Status