NAS Report Summary and Analysis Revised

ME-449

Spring 2006

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• Sustainability – joint objectives of meeting human needs while preserving life support systems and reducing hunger & poverty.

• Recent collective focus – peace, freedom, improved living conditions & healthy environment.

• Sustain – nature, life support systems, community

• Develop – people, economy, society

• GEF – environmental funding mechanism

• Science (compass) & Politics (gyroscope)

• Hope lies in viewing sustainable development as a process NOT a destination.

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• Too diverse• Development topic – difficult to define several of the

variables.• Many topics interact – only explains how to deal with

them individually not collectively.

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A Brief History of the Brief History of Sustainability

SustainNature

Life SupportCommunity

DevelopPeople

EconomySociety

What tradeoffs are made?Who decides?

In what time frame?

Goals for DevelopmentFeed

HouseNurtureEducateEmploy

Goals for SustainingQuality and Supply of Water

Controlling Emissions into AtmosphereProtecting the Oceans

Maintaining Species and Ecosystems

Meeting TargetsImportant Meetings•Brandt Comission (1980)•Brundtland Comission (1987)•UNCED ‘Agenda 21’ (1992)

Why aren’t targets being met?•Increasing world population•Social/Political Factors•Limited Time Frame

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A Quick Critique of the Argument

Provides lots of Options…•Development in Third World

•Food and Shelter•Nurturing Children

•Preserving the Habitat•Controlling emissions•Conserving resources

…But Little Direction•What is most important?

•Developing•Sustaining

•What order should they be addressed?•In what time frame?

•1-2 Generations•Indefinitely

More Specifically•Concrete Qualitative Goals

•Reduce Undernourishment by 30%•Reduce NOx emissions to at most 1987 levels

•But how do we meet them?

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A Summary of “Trends and Transitions”, by Sandy Fergus

•Addresses the individual topics and interactions between the trends in human development and earth’s environment

•Have identified seven interlinked transitions as the requirements to a more sustainable world: demographic, technological, economic, social, institutional, ideological, and informational transitions. They are not all addressed.

•The increasing population is leading us closer and closer to unsustainability. (food, water, electricity)

•Human abuse of the natural world is causing new and re-emergent pant and animal diseases.

•There are decelerating rates in some pollutants, and accelerating rates in others along with increased deforestation and water withdrawals.

•As incomes rise in developing countries, air and water pollution decreases, however material consumption increases leading to increased trash production and carbon dioxide emissions. •With the destruction of the ozone by CFC’s, the Montreal Protocol was implemented to reduce CFC e missions, however this was only signed by only 24 countries, developing countries are allowed to continue using CFC’s until the year 2040. Very little CFC’s are needed for lots of ozone destruction.

•Increasing greenhouse gases are leading to a warmer climate.

•Pollution needs to start decreasing on the individual level in order to grow into global level reduction.

•The continuation of using the earth’s resources as we know it, the current consumption levels and with the anticipated future population growth, is unsustainable.

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Critique of paper “Trends and Transitions”, by Sandy Fergus

• Since environmental quality can improve with prosperity, shouldn’t the richer nations have a responsibility to supply poor and developing nations with the technology and machines needed to reduce air and water pollution, and emissions contributing to global warming. It is in the whole world’s best interest since we are all effected by what each country does. This is not addressed.

• They are doing a two generation study, however within those two generations we will have already depleted our oil and natural gas reserves. Other forms of energy will need to be in place for a sustainable future, however this is not even addressed.

• This paper really does not offer any solutions to any of the pollution problems. Yes people need to individually reduce consumption and pollution emission, but countries that do not have the resources to do this should be given help by countries that can afford it.

• All this paper is doing is watching what is happening there is no action, nothing being done to stop the destruction of our environment.

• They are concerned with feeding people, however all over America all of our farm land is being turned into business and housing districts.

• The earth is not sustainable as it is, anyone with half a brain should be able to see this. We need to make changes now, not just sit and talk about it. We need action.

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Ch. 2: Trends and Transitions

• Trends: Recent societal changes are staggering– For 10 of 13 environmental problem areas, half of the change has

occurred in our lifetime• Trends are not constant

– Certain locations are becoming unstable

• Transitions: Atmospheric and climate changes– Ozone depletion is less of a problem– Greenhouse gas effects on the rise– Local air pollutants still problem in East Asia

• Conclusion: Looking forward– “[If current trends] persist, many human needs will not be met, life support systems will be

dangerously degraded, and the numbers of hungry and poor will increase.”– “Even the most alarming current trends, however, may experience transitions that enhance the

prospects for sustainability”

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Ch. 2: Trends and Transitions

• Agreed with adapting to current societal and environmental trends (Evolving goals)– Cultivate new dangerous trends to transition

them towards a sustainable future– Instead of creating long-term plan to reach

sustainability, just fix individual problems as they arise (CFC emissions)

• Admits that there are current problems, but does not provide any solutions to our current dilemmas

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Exploring the Future-Even though looking at future possibilities is to say the least an inexact science, “what-if” analyses about our future have an important role in shaping strategies we use to transition towards sustainability-These strategies may be evaluated on four criteria

-Scientific credibility: does the strategy make systemic but skeptical use of scientific knowledge and sufficiently deal with the issue of uncertainty

-Political legitimacy: does the strategy seem fair and legitimate to the group of futures it affects and will it be supported with collective action-Practical Utility: is the strategy sufficiently flexible and realistic in its demand for time and other resources-Effectiveness: will the strategy work and shed light on issues of importance

-There are three types of strategies presented in the chapter-Integrated Assessment Models try to link in a consistent fashion models of the environment to those of society-Scenarios do not predict the future, but pose possible outcomes-Regional Information Systems contain elements of scenario development as well as integrated modeling to look on a smaller scale

-A regional scale approach is a way to present scientific knowledge in a way that nonspecialists can understand and be motivated by-A transition towards sustainability is possible over the next two generations given

-significant advances in basic knowledge-social capacity and technological capabilities to utilize it-political will to turn this knowledge and know-how into action

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Critical Evaluation• Agreements

– There is now way to know for sure where we will be two generations from now, but it is important to theorize and make models that are flexible yet reasonable

– On the small scale (i.e. regional information systems), issues illuminated by “what-if” analyses are presented to a group of individuals who are directly affected by the issue at hand and are more likely to act

– Think local, act global• Disagreements

– The authors seem overconfident about success and the timeline of achieving a transition towards sustainability

– “Despite the hopeful examples, societies are far from having a recipe to achieve sustainable results”

– Regional Information systems “have often merely shifted the domain of controversy from the overtly political realm to apparently technical context in which political disagreements are merely pushed beneath a surface of numbers and graphs”

– “Long-term monitoring has been difficult, even in developed nations”

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Summarization StationChapter 3 Exploring The Future

R.C. Mackin Introduction: Acting out our future in a fair,

effective, and efficient manner. Aims to set forth structured &

disciplined thinking as a key to sustainable transition.

4 Strategies for Exploring Future: Scientific Credibility, Political Legitimacy, Practical Utility, and Effectiveness…with various mixture of approaches to fulfill these strategies.

Effective Tool: Causal Process Models // Effective Strategy: Extrapolation

In lieu of science, “Expert Judgments” have worked, as has Strategic Gaming assessment, predicting outcomes of varying levels of uncertainty.

IAMs (Integrated Assessment Models) – link formal environmental models with societal issues and social processes, using Scenarios & Regional Information Systems

History of Regional Information Systems, citing examples of mediation between conflicting groups to benefit both sides and environment at the same time

Conclusion: Two-Generation goal of possible sustainable transition:

- (1) Advances in basic knowledge, (2) Utilization of knowledge via social capacity and technology, (3) political will to act on knowledge

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Cost-Benefit Analysis in all proposals, giving drawbacks and perks of each method. i.e. Pros and Cons of Study Panels

Questions limits and precision of literature like Silent Spring, though this paper itself is guilty of its accusations

Case Study on Hunger and Carbon does poor job of linking the two entities (What is the significance?)

Sure, I agree with many of the points, but how will my reading this paper actually lead to a sustainable transition ?

Relies too heavily on expert analyses when the “trickle down” effect of such analyses’ intellect is questionable

- Does not seem too be concerned with the Last Oasis (Sandra Postel)

Critique + Evaluation = CritiquationChapter 3 Exploring The Future

R.C. Mackin

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4 Environmental Threats and Opportunities

Two main questions

Greatest threats facing world advocating sustainability?

Promising opportunities to combat/avoid threats?

Industry Energy

Living Resources

Water

Sustainability

Issues

Interaction Perspectives

Atmosphere & Climate

Goods and materials market increasingwasteUS generates 12 billion tons of industrial waste/year

Need to provide incentives for industries to reuse, refurbishProgram remanufactured equipment from 30,000 old copiers

Energy increase to meet needs/users decrease use to preserveGov. R&D won’t find sustainable technology Must find new mechanism to support research

Human population requires food, shelter, goods from EarthEcosystem is an under recognized service - recycling, mitigation

Must find a way to sustainably manage resource societies

Water sustains and links sustainability of industry, human health, urban development, agriculture, biodiversity and function

There is adequate water supply per capita, but not all have access Concerns: quality, amount per capita, cleanliness

Rural areas don’t have access, resulting in 5-10 million deaths

To solve air problems, must evaluate multiple gases that interactEx: US regulated hydrocarbons for years but no improvementRecognition/regulation of nitrogen oxides needs controlInteraction of atmospheric changes: nitrogen compounds and CO2

Damage vegetation, increase greenhouse emissions

Most significant threat: cumulative, interaction consequencesEx: burning natural gas has higher E yield per moleculeInteractions on all scales, so need research on all scalesSuccessful challenges to sustainability focus on specific locations

four most serious threats1. Affect multiple sectors2. Have cumulative/delayed consequences3. Are irreversible/difficult to change4. Have potential to interact with each other

location concerns•Cannot lump all problems together - “location specific”•Effects accumulate, ex: pollutants travel around world•Ex: stratospheric ozone depletion•Should focus attention on hazards that cut across sectors

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Threats Which are the most critical hindrances to sustainability? Water & air pollution – Fossil fuel combustion is the source of critical air pollution

problems throughout the world.

Residual industry production Repercussions from human activities

Opportunities Integrative solutions – Political, industrial, commercial, agricultural, environmental

interaction

Continued pursuit of sufficient support of clean energy transition Incentives for clean energy use – i.e. little or no CO2 emission Incremental steps toward sustainability

Environmental Threats and Opportunities SummaryPresented by Chris Rolland

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Agreements Threats

• Canoe-steering society• Presented criteria of threats• Fossil fuel dependence• Imbalance of per capita water resources

Opportunities• Cooperation between global sectors• Clean energy transition needs increased government backing• Most progress is made with incremental local controls of threats

Disagreements Skepticism of drastic environmental changes in next 50 years

Environmental Threats and Opportunities EvaluationPresented by Chris Rolland

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“Indicators are repeated observations of natural and social phenomena that represent systematic feedback.”

Efforts to Formulate IndicatorsThe Pressure-State-Response framework was presented as a guideline for achieving sets of indicators that would help society to navigate towards sustainability. Human activities exert the pressures which affect the state of the environment and natural resources. These changes elicit societal responses.

Indicators of Sustainable DevelopmentBoth the World Bank and the UN Commission on Sustainable Development have compiled sets of indicators. The World Bank’s set is conceptually clear although the indicators are estimated using drastic assumptions. The UN set includes indicators that are not now being measured and addresses the need to transfer measurement methods to developing countries.

Charting Progress Toward the GoalsFive kinds of information that need to be monitored were addressed: human welfare, planetary circulatory systems, critical region identification, productive landscape health and local ecosystem recognition.

Reporting on the Transition

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Critical Evaluation

• Without a common definition of sustainability, a common set of indicators for the progress toward sustainability cannot be decided.

• A common definition has not been reached because of lack of agreement on what to develop, what to sustain and for how long. Would identifying a set of common goals be possible? Can organizations with common goals achieve a common definition with a working set of indicators?

• General examples of indicators were given and the need for local and regional indicators was discussed. What types of indicators would be useful on a local level? How would these local indicators be used with the broader sets taken from global indicators?

• How should the five types of information identified be weighted in determining the path to sustainability?

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Reporting on the Transition - Summary• Indicators must be set up to monitor

changes in and conditions of the environment

– Repeated observations; represent systematic feedback

– A variety required to chart progress towards transition: Goals- meet human needs, preserve life support systems

– Interactive sustainability – “Pressure State Response” framework (US Gov)

– Must satisfy all sides of “the debate”• Definitions of Sustainability are unclear;

Time Frame difficult to define– Generally: Economy, environmental

quality, and human well-being– Time and resources must be spent to

determine meaning, before indicators can even be considered

– Model indicators in economic development sectors based on longer, more documented periods

– Environmental indicators are weak over long term series

Sam Veague

ME 449

• Variation in decision makers– US Fed – Large Scale, Long Range

– Seattle Ad Hoc- Regional community

– UN CSD- broad selection of indicators, not all have measurements

– World Bank- “Produced,” “Natural,” and “Human Resources”

• Rate of change in conditions to great for public policy

– Global circulation travels faster than regulations are put in place

– Learning from mistakes leads to “living on the edge”

• Five types of Info. for transition:1. Human Welfare

2. Global Phenomena

3. Critical Zones of Env. Vulnerability

4. Management of policy, urbanization

5. Ecosystems and protected areas

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Reporting on the Transition – Critical Analysis• Descriptions of indicators and

indicator purpose was thorough– Need of reliable indicators was fully

established – Examples discussed, led to broad

understanding of needs– Good job outlining many parameters

necessary to consider– Must satisfy all sides of “the debate”

• Clear development of debate within solutions, and relative scale required

– Region specific necessary, global action also required (As before, think local, act global?)

– With changing conditions, useful indicators may quickly become obsolete

• Undecided definition of variables and requirements hinders progress

– Issue of understanding needs before solutions can even begin

– Why can’t more indicators be put in place while debate continues?

Sam Veague

ME 449

• Not all examples clear– Intrinsic to debate: what is included in

sustainability requirement?

– Do we always need to include economic progress in defining and choosing indicators?

• No decisive result in Chapter 5– Chapter does a good job of outlining

debated issues, scale and time frame involved, choosing the purpose of eventual goals

– Does not define goals, sustainability, or responsibility

– Assumes goals of human needs and life support, does not discuss validity of these goals, or alternatives.

• World Bank – Total capitol increase = transition towards sustainability?