NAS-WIDE Simulation Workshop

December 10, 2008

Interagency Portfolio & Systems Analysis Division

Yuri Gawdiak

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Systems Modeling & Analysis Division

JPDO External Requirements Drivers from OMB

1. Improving NextGen cost and benefit estimation ability, including the ability to quantify the benefits and performance of various levels of investment. The JPDO should work with the NextGen agencies to develop a more systematic, independently-verified methodology for validating the cost of NextGen investments.

2. Developing an analysis of alternatives for the NextGen Exh. 300 that captures benefit-cost ratios and returns on investment, to be submitted in time for agencies’ FY 2010 budget request to OMB in September 2008. The NextGen Exh. 300 also needs to have a designated, qualified project manager.

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Systems Modeling & Analysis Division Stakeholder Benefit Metrics MatrixS

take

hold

ers

Goals: Global leadership Capacity Safety Environment / Noise Environment /Fuel Consumption

Defense Security

Top-level metrics

summary descriptors:

Percent of JPDO milestones on track

Total ATS-related costs per flight

Percent on-time arrivals with traffic volume to

meet predicted demand

Curb-to-curb travel time

Percent of improvements evaluated for

safety

Number of people exposed to >65 dB DNL

Fleet fuel consumed per distance flown

Reduction in flight time arising from flexible use

of SUA

Time passengers spend dedicated

to security

Stakeholder Benefit Metrics

Air Traffic Service Provider

Cost per unit of service On-time performance Reduced accident risk

Reduced SUA-related delays for DoD and civil users

Airspace Users Equipage costsGlobal inter-operability (metric TBD)

Number of flightsOn-time performance

Reduced accident risk

Reduced fuel costs Reduction in flight time and delay from flexible use of airspace

Airports Number of passengersThroughout capacity

Reduced accident risk

Environmental remediation costs

Time passengers spend in security

Fliers & Shippers Cost of delay On-time performancePassenger total trip time

Reduced accident risk

Reduced fuel costs Time passengers spend in security

DoD Global interoperability (metric TBD)

Reduced accident risk

Reduced costs related to use of SUA

Communities Near Airports

Number of flightsNumber of passengers

Reduced accident risk

Population exposed to >65 dB DNL

Reduced local pollutant levels

Internal NextGen Requirements Capabilities Cost/Benefit Mapping

Provide Collaborative Capacity Management

The ability to dynamically balance forecasted airspace and airport demand and utilization in collaboration with enterprise stakeholders through proactive strategic planning and automation (e.g. decision support systems), using airspace and airport design requirements, standards and configuration conditions, and with consideration of other air transportation system resources.

Provide Collaborative Flow Contingency Management

The ability to provide optimal, synchronized, and safe strategic flow initiatives and minimized operational impacts in collaboration with enterprise stakeholders, through real or near real time resolutions informed by probabilistic decision making that address large demand/capacity imbalances within capacity management plans.

Provide Effective Information Sharing Environment

The ability to improve information required by aviation regulation, situational awareness and enhance decision making by managing, integrating, and flexibly delivering, relevant and reliable data and information (e.g., advisories, signals, and alerts) on demand in a format that is accessible, secure, and available to authorized users in a unified and coordinated environment.

Provide Efficient Trajectory Management

The ability to provide trajectories that minimize the frequency and complexity of aircraft conflicts within the flow through trajectory negotiation and adjusting individual aircraft trajectory and/or sequence when resource contention requires.

Provide Flexible Airport Facility & Surface Operations

The ability to reallocate or reconfigure the airport facility and surface assets to maintain an acceptable level of service that will accommodate increasing passenger and cargo demand levels, or changes in operational requirements, through infrastructure development, predictive analyses, automation (e.g. decision support systems), and improvements to technology and procedures.

Provide Integrated Regulatory & Risk Management

The ability to provide appropriate, effective and scalable solutions to mitigate environmental impacts, and safety and security risks in the air transportation system based on proactive risk identification and analysis through improved automation, policies, procedures, and processes using established standards, requirements, and responsibilities.

Provide Flexible Separation Management

The ability to establish and maintain safe separation minima from other aircraft, vehicles, protected airspace, terrain, weather, etc., predict conflicts, and identify resolutions (e.g., course, speed, altitude, etc.) in real time to accommodate increasing capacity demands and traffic levels using automation (e.g. decision support systems) while applying reduced separation standards.

Strategic Global Collaboration & Planning

Tactical, National ,Virtual Real-Time Collaboration & Planning

Infrastructure Standards, Communication Capabilities, & Cross Cutting Services

Infrastructure Standards, Safety & Risk Management Capabilities, & Cross Cutting Services

Real-time Robotic automation & Safety Assurance

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Systems Modeling & Analysis DivisionSystem Modeling Challenges

Productivity/Inefficiencies Safety/Security Risk Exposure

Collaboration BehaviorsMarket/Fleet Strategies

Complex Terminal & Surface Operations

Policy Dynamics System-wide Technology Effects

(Situational Awareness/Data Quality)

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Systems Modeling & Analysis Division

Days

Traffic DemandMarket ModelsFleet Mixes

Sys Arch

EA Sensitivity

Policy Sensitivity

Portfolio Sensitivity

TodayNear Term

Long TermIdeal

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Future Scenario Challenges

Billions of RunsMillions of Runs

Thousands of RunsHundreds of Runs

JPDO Full Lifecycle Evaluations out to 2040

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Systems Modeling & Analysis Division

Summary1. Ability to isolate benefits of individual capabilities include system-

wide infrastructure type benefits2. Identify to current system opportunity costs - missed or short falls in

collaborations in the NAS3. Identification of current productivity levels across all components in

the system4. Ability to incorporate and measure safety and security benefits and

constraints5. Ability to incorporate surface, terminal, and metroplex operations

into the NAS-wide simulations6. Ability to incorporate AOC and Airport business objectives at both

the strategic and tactical levels7. Assess policy and strategic decision risks of the community to fund,

develop, and implement the NextGen R&D and programs8. Ability to run sufficient number of simulations to evaluate a portfolio

of investment options