nasa and noaa model behavior - microsoft much carbon dioxide is a huge experiment, and we’re in...

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Learn about environmental issues, their effect on your community and actions for your involvement. Reconnect with your environment SP19371 Check out these websites to learn more: http://co2now.org/ www.globalcarbonproject.org/ science/sfi.htm www.oar.noaa.gov/climate/ t_observing.html www.seagrant.psu.edu/extension/ climatechange.htm Collect articles about climate change with an international, national, state and local focus. Compare what you read about climate change with what you hear about climate change. Make sure to reference the science of climate change. Is climate change a serious problem we should address? Do you want to convince others to stop producing CO2 and other greenhouse gases? Send your thoughts to [email protected]. CONTRIBUTED PHOTO Earth Action Education Director Pat Lupo, OSB, gives Fort LeBoeuf students the opportunity to share what they learned about human impact on oceans and aquatic ecosystems. Filling the atmosphere with too much carbon dioxide is a huge experiment, and we’re in the test tube. By burning fossil fuels that were trapped underground for millions of years, humans have rapidly created an excess of this greenhouse gas in the wake of the Industrial Revolution. Ocean and forests suck some of this carbon dioxide (CO2) out of the air. That’s a scientific fact. In ad- dition to soil, these carbon sinks play an important role in main- taining proper levels of CO2 in the earth’s atmosphere by ab- sorbing more carbon dioxide than they emit. The question is: Can they keep pace with all the extra human- produced CO2? When Inez Fung joined a cli- mate-modeling team at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Stud- ies at Columbia University, she began earnestly thinking about the earth’s carbon cycle. It was obvious to her that the earth’s ability to absorb CO2 is vital for analyzing climate change. Fung’s commitment and work to account for every gram of heat- trapping carbon dioxide on the planet earned her recognition as one of Scientific American’s 50 most influential scientists in 2005. Currently she is the di- rector of the Berkeley Institute of the Environment at the Uni- versity of California-Berkeley. Her childhood love of math, her training in mathematics at MIT, her work at NASA and her pas- sion for tackling big problems make her a perfect choice. While Charles Keeling and other scientists clearly showed that CO2 concentration is ris- ing and causing the planet to warm, Fung’s research gives us a better understanding of the current and future role played by carbon sinks. Any decrease in their capacity to absorb CO2 could dramatically increase the speed and intensity of global cli- mate change. Using her detailed data analy- sis, Fung built a large-scale com- puter model to represent the CO2 sources and sinks and where and when they vary. More recently, Fung has coupled her carbon- cycle model onto existing large- scale computer climate models to project how land and ocean carbon sinks are likely to change as the average global tempera- tures rises. Until now, earth’s land, vegeta- tion and oceans have soaked up roughly half of all the CO2 from fossil fuels. But one of Fung’s major findings is that droughts have already diminished the land’s ability to take up CO2 and will continue to do so on a global scale. Observational data sup- ports her research. Her model also projects that the tropics are likely to become hotter and drier in the summer, causing plants to slow their CO2 intake to avoid water loss. Atmo- spheric measurements over the past decade have already con- firmed this effect. Fung worries that increasing regional droughts will further hasten warming trends because her research shows that soil moisture is a key variable. In 2013 a new satellite, the Or- biting Carbon Observatory (OCO- 2), is expected to launch, giving Fung volumes of data on atmo- spheric levels of CO2. She will go from drawing upon roughly 100 observations every two weeks to a million. And because the OCO can read CO2 levels of the en- tire atmospheric column, it will eliminate the need to guess about variations at different altitudes. Fung’s colleagues are paying close attention to her analysis, and her work is widely cited. It is hoped that policymakers and regular citizens will use the in- formation to take action before the carbon sinks become satu- rated with all the extra CO2 we are producing. Using less oil, coal and gas and replacing them with renewable sources of energy that don’t produce CO2 will certainly help. To extend today’s learning, teachers can find lessons at www. goerie.com/nie. ANNA MCCARTNEY, a communications and education specialist for Pennsylvania Sea Grant, can be reached by e-mail at [email protected]. Model behavior Influential scientist pinpoints climate-change data so we can understand problems and find solutions By ANNA MCCARTNEY Contributing writer CONTRIBUTED PHOTO/National Academy of Sciences Clilmate scientist Inez Fung’s job is to try to predict the future of the earth’s climate. Her tools are mathematical equations and models, and superfast computers. Like any good scientist, she is always asking new questions and searching for new puzzles to solve so she can help us better understand and respond to the changes. What: Visit the TREC between Jan. 15 and March 25 and receive a chance to win a guided tour of the Presque Isle Lighthouse on May 29. Cost: No fees; participants must be age 16 and up to enter. When: 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. daily For more information, contact: Stacey Marendt at 217-9638 What: Outside the Window pre-school program; kids ages 3-5 with an accompanying adult can explore the natural world with books, crafts and outdoor activities. When: 10 a.m. to 11 a.m. on the following days: Feb. 12 and 18: Groundhogs; March 12 and 25: Animals Wake Up; April 9: Frogs; May 14: Plant a Garden Where: At the Tom Ridge Environmental Center and other Presque Isle locations (dress for outdoor activities) Cost: $3 per child per class, registration required For more information, contact: the Park Office at 833-7424 LEARN MORE 2010 Hottest year on record, globally, in a tie with 2005. It was also the wettest year ever recorded — think Pakistan, Australia,Tennessee, and California and their epic floods. 34 Consecutive years that global temperatures have been above the average for the 20th century. 14 Consecutive years that temperatures in the U.S. have been above the long-term average. 9 Number of the 10 warmest years on record since 2000. 58.12 Average planet surface temperature last year, in degrees Fahrenheit 57 Average planet surface, in degrees Fahrenheit, during the 20th century. 1976 The last year that global average temperatures were below normal. SOURCE: NASA and NOAA BY THE NUMBERS This page brought to you by: Carbon dioxide is produced naturally but human activity has greatly increased the amount of this greenhouse gas since the Industrial Revolution. Vehicles alone produce almost one-fourth of the CO2 released into the air. Scientists are seeing evidence of climate extremes that have never been seen before. Arctic sea ice has thinned and mountain glaciers have shrunk. Four-fifths of the glaciers in Montana’s Glacier National Park have disappeared in the past 100 years and if warming continues, they could all disappear in the park by 2030. The loss of land ice and the warming of oceans have caused a slow but steady rise in sea levels. The number of days with frost has decreased over most areas of the earth. The 20th century was the warmest in the past 1,000 years. And 9 of the 10 warmest years in the last 150 have occurred since 1990. Droughts are more severe in some areas. Some trees are budding earlier in the spring and some plants are growing in places that were once too cold for them. The carbon dioxide content of the earth’s oceans has been increasing since 1750, and is currently increasing about 2 billion tons per year. This has increased ocean acidity by about 30 percent. FAST FACTS How does an underwater struggle for survival off the “Wild Coast” of South Africa relate to students from Fort LeBoeuf Mid- dle School? The Earth Action Youth Train- ingDayattheTomRidgeEnviron- mental Center involved students in grades 6-8 in activities to bring home the message that human ac- tivity impacts the survival of the entire aquatic ecosystem. The day began with an intro- duction and viewing of the “Wild Ocean” on the Big Green Screen. Students then attended a variety of workshops that helped them explore aquatic organisms and their interaction within an eco- system. “My favorite part of the day was playing the predator/prey game. I learned about the animal food chain and how herbivores are typically on the bottom with car- nivores and top carnivores on top,” said Samanthalyn Weryha. When students were asked to share what we can do to protect the aquatic ecosystem, Skylar Fox and Jacob Burkley both agreed it’s important to get friends and families together to pick up trash on the beach so it does not make its way to the water. Rachael Wil- son suggests you use recyclable containers. The all-day event was made possible with a grant from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection’s Coastal Resources Management Program. ANNA MCCARTNEY, a communications and education specialist for Pennsylvania Sea Grant, can be reached by e-mail at [email protected]. Students acquire skills to save our ecosystem By ANNA MCCARTNEY Contributing writer Tuesday, January 25, 2011 | Erie Times-News | GoErie.com | 3D

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Page 1: NASA and NOAA Model behavior - Microsoft much carbon dioxide is a huge experiment, and we’re in the test tube. By burning fossil fuels that were trapped underground for millions

Learn about environmental issues, their effect on your community and actions for your involvement.

Reconnect with your environmentSP19371

Check out these websitesto learn more:

http://co2now.org/www.globalcarbonproject.org/

science/sfi.htmwww.oar.noaa.gov/climate/

t_observing.htmlwww.seagrant.psu.edu/extension/

climatechange.htm

Collect articles about climate change with an international, national,state and local focus. Compare whatyou read about climate change withwhat you hear about climatechange. Make sure toreference the science ofclimate change. Is climatechange a serious problemwe should address? Do youwant to convince others tostop producing CO2 and othergreenhouse gases? Send yourthoughts to [email protected].

CONTRIBUTED PHOTO

Earth Action Education Director Pat Lupo, OSB, gives Fort LeBoeufstudents the opportunity to share what they learned about humanimpact on oceans and aquatic ecosystems.

Filling the atmosphere withtoo much carbon dioxide is ahuge experiment, and we’re inthe test tube.

By burning fossil fuels thatwere trapped underground formillions of years, humans haverapidly created an excess of thisgreenhouse gas in the wake ofthe Industrial Revolution.

Ocean and forests suck someof this carbon dioxide (CO2) outof the air.

That’s a scientific fact. In ad-dition to soil, these carbon sinksplay an important role in main-taining proper levels of CO2 inthe earth’s atmosphere by ab-sorbing more carbon dioxidethan they emit.

Thequestionis:Cantheykeeppace with all the extra human-produced CO2?

When Inez Fung joined a cli-mate-modeling team at NASA’sGoddardInstituteforSpaceStud-ies at Columbia University, shebegan earnestly thinking aboutthe earth’s carbon cycle. It wasobvious to her that the earth’sability to absorb CO2 is vital foranalyzing climate change.

Fung’s commitment and worktoaccountforeverygramofheat-trapping carbon dioxide on theplanet earned her recognitionas one of Scientific American’s50 most influential scientistsin 2005. Currently she is the di-rector of the Berkeley Instituteof the Environment at the Uni-versity of California-Berkeley.Her childhood love of math, hertraining in mathematics at MIT,her work at NASA and her pas-sion for tackling big problemsmake her a perfect choice.

While Charles Keeling andother scientists clearly showedthat CO2 concentration is ris-ing and causing the planet towarm, Fung’s research gives usa better understanding of thecurrent and future role playedby carbon sinks. Any decreasein their capacity to absorb CO2could dramatically increase thespeedandintensityofglobalcli-mate change.

Using her detailed data analy-sis, Fung built a large-scale com-putermodeltorepresenttheCO2sourcesandsinksandwhereandwhen they vary. More recently,Fung has coupled her carbon-

cycle model onto existing large-scale computer climate modelsto project how land and oceancarbonsinksarelikely tochangeas the average global tempera-tures rises.

Untilnow,earth’sland,vegeta-tion and oceans have soaked uproughly half of all the CO2 fromfossil fuels. But one of Fung’smajor findings is that droughtshave already diminished theland’s ability to take up CO2 andwill continue to do so on a globalscale. Observational data sup-ports her research.

Her model also projects thatthe tropics are likely to becomehotter and drier in the summer,causing plants to slow their CO2intake to avoid water loss. Atmo-

spheric measurements over thepast decade have already con-firmed this effect. Fung worriesthatincreasingregionaldroughtswill further hasten warmingtrends because her researchshows that soil moisture is a keyvariable.

In 2013 a new satellite, the Or-bitingCarbonObservatory(OCO-2), is expected to launch, givingFung volumes of data on atmo-spheric levels of CO2. She will gofrom drawing upon roughly 100observations every two weeks toa million. And because the OCOcan read CO2 levels of the en-tire atmospheric column, it willeliminatetheneedtoguessaboutvariations at different altitudes.

Fung’s colleagues are paying

close attention to her analysis,and her work is widely cited. Itis hoped that policymakers andregular citizens will use the in-formation to take action beforethe carbon sinks become satu-rated with all the extra CO2 weareproducing.Usinglessoil,coaland gas and replacing them withrenewablesourcesofenergythatdon’t produce CO2 will certainlyhelp.

To extend today’s learning,teacherscanfindlessonsatwww.goerie.com/nie.

A N N A M C C A R T N E Y, acommunications and educationspecialist for Pennsylvania SeaGrant, can be reached by e-mail [email protected].

Model behaviorInfluential scientist pinpoints climate-change dataso we can understand problems and find solutionsBy ANNA MCCARTNEYContributing writer

CONTRIBUTED PHOTO/National Academy of Sciences

Clilmate scientist Inez Fung’s job is to try to predict the future of theearth’s climate. Her tools are mathematical equations and models,and superfast computers. Like any good scientist, she is always askingnew questions and searching for new puzzles to solve so she can helpus better understand and respond to the changes.

What: Visit the TREC between Jan. 15 and March 25 and receive achance to win a guided tour of the Presque Isle Lighthouse on May29.Cost: No fees; participants must be age 16 and up to enter.When: 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. dailyFor more information, contact: Stacey Marendt at 217-9638

What: Outside the Window pre-school program; kids ages 3-5 withan accompanying adult can explore the natural world with books,crafts and outdoor activities.When: 10 a.m. to 11 a.m. on the following days: Feb. 12 and 18:Groundhogs; March 12 and 25: Animals Wake Up; April 9: Frogs; May14: Plant a GardenWhere: At the Tom Ridge Environmental Center and other PresqueIsle locations (dress for outdoor activities)Cost: $3 per child per class, registration requiredFor more information, contact: the Park Office at 833-7424

Learn More

2010Hottest year on record, globally, in a tie with 2005. It was

also the wettest year ever recorded — think Pakistan,Australia, Tennessee, and California and their epic floods.

34Consecutive years that global temperatures have

been above the average for the 20th century.

14Consecutive years that temperatures in the

U.S. have been above the long-term average.

9Number of the 10 warmestyears on record since 2000.

58.12Average planet surface temperature

last year, in degrees Fahrenheit

57Average planet surface, in degreesFahrenheit, during the 20th century.

1976The last year that global averagetemperatures were below normal.

SOURCE: NASA and NOAA

By the nuMBers

This page brought to you by:

▀Carbon dioxide is producednaturally but human activityhas greatly increased theamount of this greenhouse gassince the Industrial Revolution.

▀Vehicles alone produce almostone-fourth of the CO2 releasedinto the air.

▀Scientists are seeing evidenceof climate extremes that havenever been seen before.

▀Arctic sea ice has thinned andmountain glaciers have shrunk.Four-fifths of the glaciers inMontana’s Glacier NationalPark have disappeared in thepast 100 years and if warmingcontinues, they could alldisappear in the park by 2030.

▀The loss of land ice and thewarming of oceans havecaused a slow but steady risein sea levels.

▀The number of days with frosthas decreased over mostareas of the earth.

▀The 20th century was thewarmest in the past 1,000years. And 9 of the 10 warmestyears in the last 150 haveoccurred since 1990.

▀Droughts are more severe insome areas.

▀Some trees are budding earlierin the spring and some plantsare growing in places that wereonce too cold for them.

▀The carbon dioxide content ofthe earth’s oceans has beenincreasing since 1750, and iscurrently increasing about 2billion tons per year. This hasincreased ocean acidity byabout 30 percent.

Fast FaCts

How does an underwaterstruggleforsurvivaloffthe“WildCoast” of South Africa relate tostudentsfromFortLeBoeufMid-dle School?

The Earth Action Youth Train-ingDayattheTomRidgeEnviron-mental Center involved studentsingrades6-8inactivitiestobringhomethemessagethathumanac-tivity impacts the survival of theentire aquatic ecosystem.

The day began with an intro-duction and viewing of the “WildOcean”ontheBigGreenScreen.Students then attended a varietyof workshops that helped themexplore aquatic organisms andtheir interaction within an eco-system.

“Myfavoritepartofthedaywasplaying the predator/prey game.I learned about the animal food

chain and how herbivores aretypically on the bottom with car-nivores and top carnivores ontop,” said Samanthalyn Weryha.

When students were asked toshare what we can do to protecttheaquaticecosystem,SkylarFoxand Jacob Burkley both agreedit’s important to get friends andfamiliestogethertopickuptrashon the beach so it does not makeitswaytothewater.RachaelWil-son suggests you use recyclablecontainers.

The all-day event was madepossible with a grant from thePennsylvania Department ofEnvironmental Protection’sCoastal Resources ManagementProgram.

A N N A M C C A R T N E Y, acommunications and educationspecialist for Pennsylvania SeaGrant, can be reached by e-mail [email protected].

Students acquire skillsto save our ecosystemBy ANNA MCCARTNEYContributing writer

Tuesday, January 25, 2011 | Erie Times-News | GoErie.com | 3D