National Agricultural National Agricultural Decision Support Decision Support System (NADSS)System (NADSS)

A Geospatial Decision Support System for Agricultural Risk Management

Principal Investigator: S. Goddard,Co-Principals: J. Deogun, M.J. Hayes, K.G. Hubbard, S.E. Reichenbach, P.Z. Revesz, W.J. Waltman, and D.A. Wilhite

Co-Investigators: M.E. Tooze, S.K. Harms, J.S. Peake, and T. Tadesse

The PartnershipThe Partnership

National Science Foundation’s Digital Government Program

National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska--Lincoln

High Plains Regional Climate Center, UNL

USDA Risk Management Agency, Natural Resources Conservation Service, National Agricultural Statistics Service, and the Farm

Service Agency

USGS EROS Data Center

Nebraska Research Initiative on Geospatial Decision Support Systems

GIS Workshop

FundingFunding

Source: Source: NSF: $1 Million, 7/01—6/04NSF: $1 Million, 7/01—6/04

Title: Title: DIGITAL GOVERNMENT: A Geospatial Decision DIGITAL GOVERNMENT: A Geospatial Decision Support System for Drought Risk ManagementSupport System for Drought Risk Management

Principal InvestigatorsPrincipal Investigators: Steve Goddard, Jitender Deogun, Michael J. : Steve Goddard, Jitender Deogun, Michael J. Hayes, Kenneth G. Hubbard, Stephen Reichenbach, Peter Revesz, W.J. Hayes, Kenneth G. Hubbard, Stephen Reichenbach, Peter Revesz, W.J. Waltman, Donald A. Wilhite, and Mark D. Svoboda, University of Waltman, Donald A. Wilhite, and Mark D. Svoboda, University of Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL), Lincoln, Nebraska 68588-0115. Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL), Lincoln, Nebraska 68588-0115. (goddard@cse.unl.edu)(goddard@cse.unl.edu)Co-InvestigatorsCo-Investigators: Sheri K. Harms, University of Nebraska-Kearney; : Sheri K. Harms, University of Nebraska-Kearney; J.S. Peake, University of Nebraska-Omaha; Ray Sinclair and Sharon J.S. Peake, University of Nebraska-Omaha; Ray Sinclair and Sharon Waltman, USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service, National Waltman, USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service, National Soil Survey Center, Lincoln, NE; and Marcus Tooze, GIS Workshop, Soil Survey Center, Lincoln, NE; and Marcus Tooze, GIS Workshop, Lincoln, NE.Lincoln, NE.

FundingFunding

Source: Source: USDA RMA/FCIC: $1.3 Million, 10/02—9/04USDA RMA/FCIC: $1.3 Million, 10/02—9/04

Title: Title: RISK ASSESSMENT AND EXPOSURE ANALYSIS RISK ASSESSMENT AND EXPOSURE ANALYSIS ON THE AGRICULTURAL LANDSCAPE: A Holistic ON THE AGRICULTURAL LANDSCAPE: A Holistic Approach to Spatio-Temporal Models and Tools for Agricultural Approach to Spatio-Temporal Models and Tools for Agricultural Risk Assessment and Exposure AnalysisRisk Assessment and Exposure Analysis

Principal InvestigatorsPrincipal Investigators: Steve Goddard, Jitender Deogun, Michael J. : Steve Goddard, Jitender Deogun, Michael J. Hayes, Kenneth G. Hubbard, H. Douglas Jose, Stephen Reichenbach, Hayes, Kenneth G. Hubbard, H. Douglas Jose, Stephen Reichenbach, W.J. Waltman, Donald A. Wilhite, and Mark D. Svoboda, University of W.J. Waltman, Donald A. Wilhite, and Mark D. Svoboda, University of Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL), Lincoln, Nebraska 68588-0115. Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL), Lincoln, Nebraska 68588-0115. (goddard@cse.unl.edu)(goddard@cse.unl.edu)Co-InvestigatorsCo-Investigators: Norman Bliss, EROS Data Center; Sioux Falls, SD: : Norman Bliss, EROS Data Center; Sioux Falls, SD: Sheri K. Harms, University of Nebraska-Kearney; and J.S. Peake, Sheri K. Harms, University of Nebraska-Kearney; and J.S. Peake, University of Nebraska-Omaha; Ray Sinclair and Sharon Waltman, University of Nebraska-Omaha; Ray Sinclair and Sharon Waltman, USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service, National Soil Survey USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service, National Soil Survey Center, Lincoln, NE; and Marcus Tooze, GIS Workshop, Lincoln, NE.Center, Lincoln, NE; and Marcus Tooze, GIS Workshop, Lincoln, NE.

Project GoalsProject Goals

Develop a support system of geospatial Develop a support system of geospatial analyses that will enhance agricultural risk analyses that will enhance agricultural risk assessment and exposure analysis. Initial assessment and exposure analysis. Initial emphasis is on drought.emphasis is on drought. Compute and map drought indices at increased Compute and map drought indices at increased

spatial and temporal resolutions.spatial and temporal resolutions. Provide transparent access to distributed Provide transparent access to distributed

geospatial, relational, and constraint databases.geospatial, relational, and constraint databases. Develop new algorithms (using data mining and Develop new algorithms (using data mining and

knowledge discovery techniques) that seek out knowledge discovery techniques) that seek out patterns between weather stations, crop yields, and patterns between weather stations, crop yields, and ENSO events.ENSO events.

Develop new geospatial analyses to better visualize Develop new geospatial analyses to better visualize the emergence, evolution, and movement of the emergence, evolution, and movement of drought.drought.

National Agricultural National Agricultural Decision Support System Decision Support System

(NADSS)(NADSS) http://nadss.unl.edu/http://nadss.unl.edu/

Current ToolsCurrent Tools Our current tools apply Our current tools apply

risk analysis risk analysis methodologies to the methodologies to the study of droughtstudy of drought Integration of basic Integration of basic

models with data models with data generates “information” generates “information” for analysis by decision for analysis by decision makersmakers

Information can be Information can be gathered at any gathered at any resolution for which we resolution for which we have datahave data

http://nadss.unl.eduhttp://nadss.unl.edu

Current NADSS ToolsCurrent NADSS Tools

Current Current NADSS NADSS ToolsTools

Prototype planting date guide tool with climograph, date sliders, numerical information, and navigation buttons.

Sample Climograph and Soil Moisture Regime probability analysis map

Building a Spatial ViewBuilding a Spatial View Data from information and knowledge layers are Data from information and knowledge layers are

translated spatially and interpolated to provide a translated spatially and interpolated to provide a “risk view” for a defined area“risk view” for a defined area

Drought Indices

Soil Data

Climate Data

Reported Yields

Raster interpolation of data points within various windows

Inverse Distance Weighting

Spline

Kriging

Re-summarization of raster data

Generation of displayable images

Risk Indicators Surfacing Display

Other Data Type

Risk Assessment in PracticeRisk Assessment in Practice

By combining several domain specific factors By combining several domain specific factors from our “information layer” we are able to from our “information layer” we are able to create maps displaying the risk for states, create maps displaying the risk for states, regions or countriesregions or countries

The user adjusts weight factors for

each variable

The result is a “spatial” view of risk

Variables are spatially rendered

Risk AssessmentRisk Assessment

Total Market Value

Dairy Farms

Beef Farms

Projecting Potential Impacts for Decision-

Makers as County Profiles

Congressional Delegation

State Legislature

USDA and State Agencies

Commodity Groups and Agribusiness

Data Mining and Data Mining and Knowledge DiscoveryKnowledge Discovery

Cor

n G

rain

Yie

lds

(Bu/

acre

) Clinton County

1966

1973-19741991?

1988

Annual Milk Production

Year

Non-Irrigated Corn Yields of Nebraska Through Time

y = 1.6509x - 3195

R2 = 0.7646

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Cor

n Y

ield

(B

ushe

ls/A

cre)

ENSO events and other El Nino/La Nina processes can serve as a trigger mechanism for drought. Mining the patterns between crop yields and ENSO signals may provide new insights to risk management and fore-casting potential impacts on cropping systems.

Genetic Improvement and Management

Year

NIR Corn Yields In Nebraska Through Time

Distributed Geospatial Distributed Geospatial Decision Support System Decision Support System

ArchitectureArchitecture

HTTPIIOPRMITCP

Presentation (User Interface)e.g., Web Interface, Java applet

Knowledge Layere.g., Exposure Analysis, Risk Assessment

Data cache

Data cacheDistributed Spatial and Relational Data

e.g., Climatic Variables, Agricultural Statistics

Data cache

e.g., Drought Indices, Regional Crop LossesInformation Layer

HTTPIIOPRMITCP

Presentation (User Interface)e.g., Web Interface, Java applet

Presentation (User Interface)e.g., Web Interface, Java applet

Knowledge Layere.g., Exposure Analysis, Risk Assessment

Data cache

Knowledge Layere.g., Data Mining, Exposure Analysis, Risk Assessment

Data cache

Data cacheDistributed Spatial and Relational Data

e.g., Climatic Variables, Agricultural Statistics

Data cache

e.g., Drought Indices, Regional Crop LossesInformation Layer

Data cache

e.g., Drought Indices, Regional Crop LossesInformation Layer

Java ClientWeb ClientUser Interface

Knowledge Layer

Drought Vulnerability and Soil Climate Regime Analysis Tools

Drought Exposure Analysis ToolsData Mining Tools

Local Database Cache

DiscoveryLink (Wrapper) OGDI (driver stub)

Attribute Data Cache Geodata Cache

UCAN clientCGI data access (client)

Data Layer(Local)

Local Database Cache

Index Producing Service(SPI, PDSI, NSM)

Interpolation Service(Spline, Kriging, IDW )

Wrapped legacy Mapping Service (ArcPlot, GRASS)

Local Database Cache

Relat ional DB Structure flat files Geospatial DBMLPQ (Constrained DB)

OGDI driverUCAN server

Data Layer(Distributed)

HTTPIIOPRMI

Information Layer

Java ClientWeb ClientUser Interface

Java ClientWeb ClientUser Interface

Knowledge Layer

Drought Vulnerability and Soil Climate Regime Analysis Tools

Drought Exposure Analysis ToolsData Mining Tools

Local Database Cache

Knowledge Layer

Drought Vulnerability and Soil Climate Regime Analysis Tools

Drought Exposure Analysis ToolsData Mining Tools

Local Database Cache

DiscoveryLink (Wrapper) OGDI (driver stub)

Attribute Data Cache Geodata Cache

UCAN clientCGI data access (client)

Data Layer(Local)

Local Database Cache

DiscoveryLink (Wrapper) OGDI (driver stub)

Attribute Data Cache Geodata Cache

UCAN clientCGI data access (client)

Data Layer(Local)

Local Database Cache

Index Producing Service(SPI, PDSI, NSM)

Interpolation Service(Spline, Kriging, IDW )

Wrapped legacy Mapping Service (ArcPlot, GRASS)

Local Database Cache

Index Producing Service(SPI, PDSI, NSM)

Interpolation Service(Spline, Kriging, IDW )

Wrapped legacy Mapping Service (ArcPlot, GRASS)

Local Database Cache

Relat ional DB Structure flat files Geospatial DBMLPQ (Constrained DB)

OGDI driverUCAN server

Data Layer(Distributed)

HTTPIIOPRMI

Information Layer

4-Layer Architecture for 4-Layer Architecture for NADSSNADSS

NADSS Benefits and NADSS Benefits and ImpactsImpacts

Improving spatial and temporal Improving spatial and temporal analysis for drought risk management analysis for drought risk management State level to County level to Field State level to County level to Field

levellevel Monthly Index to Weekly Index (SPI, Monthly Index to Weekly Index (SPI,

PDSI, Newhall Simulation Model)PDSI, Newhall Simulation Model) Responding to drought events more Responding to drought events more

effectively effectively

ConclusionConclusion

We are addressing We are addressing Data Data Interpretation and Data Integration Interpretation and Data Integration problems problems by creating a by creating a Distributed Distributed Geospatial Decision Support SystemGeospatial Decision Support System architecture architecture

The The Distributed Geospatial Decision Distributed Geospatial Decision Support SystemSupport System architecture is architecture is applicable to many other distributed applicable to many other distributed geospatial decision support systemsgeospatial decision support systems