national association of home builders
DESCRIPTION
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS. 2012 Single Family Starts = 535,000 Up 24% from 2011 This represents 44% of what would be considered normal (1.2170M) Forecast 2013 = 650,000 SF + 22% Forecast 2014 = 845,000 SF + 30%. CORE LOGIC. IN 2012: Total Homes Sales Increased 6% - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS
2012 Single Family Starts = 535,000
Up 24% from 2011
This represents 44% of what would be considered normal (1.2170M)
Forecast 2013 = 650,000 SF + 22%
Forecast 2014 = 845,000 SF + 30%
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CORE LOGIC
IN 2012:
• Total Homes Sales Increased 6%
• Non-Distressed Home Sales Increased 11%
• REO Sales Declined 20%(3rd consecutive decline)
• Serious Delinquencies Dropped 7.4% 6.9%
• Core Logic Home Price Index (based on repeat sales) Increased 6.3% (largest since 2006)
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GLAR MLS 2012• Existing Home Sales Have Posted Six Consecutive
Quarters of Sales Growth (starting in Q3 2011)
Houses Sold on MLS ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘ 12 ‘12
vs.’1115,181 14,748 11,369 11,648 11,442 10,974 12,724 +15.9%
Median Sales Price ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘ 12 ‘12
vs.’11138.5 139.0 134.9 132.0 138.0 134.1 140.0 +4.3%
• Average and Cumulative Day on Market Both Down in ’12 vs. ‘11
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PERCENT CHANGE IN HOUSE PRICES/MSANational
MSA Rank 1-yr Qtr. 5-yrBirmingham, AL 222 -1.3% -0.2 -8.8%Charlotte, NC 201 -0.8% 0.4 -12.9%Cincinnati, OH 213 -1.0% -0.5 -8.3%Cleveland, OH 265 -2.2% - -13.3%Columbus, OH 186 -0.3% -0.3 -6.9%Dayton, OH 212 -1.0% 0.1 -9.9%Houston, TX 30 3.4% 0.9 5.5%Indianapolis, IN 149 0.3% 0.2 -3.9%Knoxville, TN 156 0.1% 0.6 -5.5%Memphis, TN 206 -1.0% -0.1 -12.1%
Louisville, KY 133 0.6% 0.4 -2.8%
Oklahoma City 64 2.0% 0.7 2.2%Portland, OR 66 2.0% 1.8 -21.0%Raleigh, NC 181 -0.2% - -6.6%Richmond, VA 230 -1.5% - -18.1%Seattle, WA 63 2.0% 1.4 -23.1%
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency
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TOP 20 MSA LARGEST5-YEAR PERCENT LOSS IN HOME PRICES
Las Vegas, NV -54.3%Vallejo, CA -45.6%Stockton, CA -44.9%Daytona Beach, FL -44.3%Reno, NV -44.0%Orlando, FL -42.8%Ocala, FL -42.7%Salvias, CA -41.7%Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL -41.6%Riverside – San Bernadine, CA -41.3%Port St. Lucie, FL -40.9%Yuba City, CA -40.7%Naples – Marco Island, FL -40.1%Visalia, CA -39.8%Ft. Lauderdale, FL -39.0%Palm Bay – Melbourne, FL -38.8%Fresno, CA -38.5%Phoenix, AZ -38.4%Bradenton – Sarasota, FL -38.0%West Palm Beach, FL -37.8%Cape Coral – Ft. Myers, FL -37.8%
Louisville, KY -2.8%Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency
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Residential Building Permits 20122012 2011 ’12 vs ’11
Jefferson 1003 671 +49.4Oldham 156 112 39.3Shelby 136 73 86.3Spencer 47 46 2.2Bullitt 292 213 37.137.1
1634 1115 +46.5%
Clark 349 227 +53.7Floyd 169 98 72.4Harrison 96 64 50.0
614 389 +57.8%8-County Total 2,248 1504 +49.5%
Note: Nelson 114 122 -6.6% Hardin 254 210 +21%
Source: The Market Edge
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Residential Building Permit 2012Market Comparison
%CHANGE MARKET 2012 vs. 2011
Louisville KY 42.5%
Lexington KY 33.1%Evansville IN 24.3%
Asheville NC 21.5%Charlotte NC 30.4%Fayetteville NC -------Hickory NC 12.3%Triad NC 3.2%Raleigh NC 31.8%Upstate NC 32.1%Chattanooga TN 27.7%Knoxville TN 23.9%Tri-Cities TN -4.5%
Source: The Market Edge
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Improving Markets Index
1223
3041
76
98 99 101 100
80 84 8099
103
125
201
242
259
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Perm
its
4225
4790
5015
5137
4348
5294
3749
3297
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Perm
its
4225
4790
5015
5137
4348
5294
3749
3297
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Source: local government permitting departments
J11
F M A M J J A S O N D J12
F M A M J J A S O N D J13
F
-27.7%
-18%
-11.7%
-22.5%
-2.4%
59.6%
34.2%
13.2%
-1.2%
97.5%
49.5%48.8%
29.9%
38.6%
52.6%
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NAHB E-BOOK/SURVEY RESULTSWHAT HOME BUYERS
REALLY WANT
The lot size is not a factor for 25% of buyers
47% want three bedrooms32% want four bedrooms
57% of home buyers prefer a single-story home31% prefer two stories
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home BuildersNAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
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60 % of buyers want a full or partial basement
48% want the Master Bedroom on the 2nd floor70% prefer the Washer & Dryer on the 1st floor
Buyers focus on “Quality & Appearance” where looking at home components such as flooring, doors, kitchen countertops, cabinets, etc.
while…When looking at appliances, the focus is on “Quality & Brand”
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
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• In the Kitchen:A walk-in pantry, table space for eating and a double sink are considered essential/desirable by 84% of buyers
• In the Bathroom:An exhaust fan, linen closet and both a shower stall and tub in Master bath are essential/desirable to 80% of buyers
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home BuildersNAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
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• When Rating Windows:67% want energy star rated
windows, triple pane insulating glass and low-e insulating glass
• Decorative Features:88% Want ceiling fans60% Want built-in shelving and
ceiling crown moldingSource: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home Builders
NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
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• Laundry Room:57% Buyers find it essential and would not buy a home without it
36% Find it desirable
• Garage Storage:32% Rate it essential54% Desirable
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home BuildersNAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
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• The Three Most Wanted Outdoor Features:90% Exterior lighting essential/desirable83% Patio80% Front porch
• Master Bath Location:45% Essential36% Desirable
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home BuildersNAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
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• 62% Would choose a smaller home with higher quality products and amenities than a larger home with fewer amenities
• 73% Agree that the projected utility costs of a home would influence their decision today
• 71% Would prefer to buy a home from a builder that provides home energy ratings
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home BuildersNAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
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• Location of choice for new home buyers:Central City – 8 %Close-in Suburbs – 30%Outlying Suburb – 38%Rural Area – 27 %
and small towns
• Community features to seriously influence the buying decision:
Walking/Jogging Trails – 60%Park Area - 54%Outdoor Swimming Pool – 50%
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home BuildersNAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
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• 70% of home buyers see value in professional designations for building/remodeling contractors
‒ “More Professional & Credible”‒ “Provide better quality work and
craftmanship”‒ “Provide better service levels”‒ “More Reliable”
Top Two Reasons for Selecting a Contractor:1. “Reputation for quality construction”2. “Reputation for completing projects on budget”
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home BuildersNAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
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Type of Home Preferred(Percent of Respondents)
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home BuildersNAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
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Features Most Wanted by Home Buyers(Percent of Respondents)
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home BuildersNAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
31% 54%
36% 49%
32% 54%
48% 40%
35% 54%
39% 51%
41% 49%
53% 37%
28% 63%
57% 36%
36% 58%
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Outdoor Features Rated Essential or Desirable(Percent of Respondents)
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home BuildersNAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
6% 27%
6% 31%
21% 39%
17% 45%
21% 51%
22% 55%
29% 49%
26% 54%
27% 56%
41% 49%
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Accessibility Features Rated Essential or Desirable(Percent of Respondents)
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home BuildersNAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
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2004 2007 2012
A full bath on the main level 75 74 81
Non-slip floor surfaces 62 53 63
An entrance without steps 42 38 50
Bathroom aids, such as grab bars
or seating in shower
40 35 46
Accessibility Features - History(Percent of Respondents Rating Essential of Desirable in 2012
and Important to Very Important in 2004 and 2007 )
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home BuildersNAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
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Share of Buyers Willing to Buy Home W/out a Living Room by Division
(Percent of Respondents )
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home BuildersNAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
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Amenities that Would Seriously Influence Buyers toChoose a Community
(Percent of Respondents )
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home BuildersNAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
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2004 2007 2012
Walking/jogging trails 51 49 60
Park area 52 43 54
Outdoor swimming pool 36 36 50
Lake 32 33 45
Exercise room 30 27 39
Convenience Store n/a 28 32
Drug Store n/a 28 32
Playgrounds 26 22 31
Public transportation 34 24 29
Clubhouse 21 21 26
Security guard at gate 30 17 25
Card-operated gate, no guard 16 14 19
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home BuildersNAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
Community Features that Influence Purchase Decision - History
(Percent of Respondents )
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2004 2007 2012
Tennis courts 10 10 17
Arts and Crafts n/a 7 14
Basketball courts 9 8 13
Business center 17 8 13
Billiard room 9 6 12
Daycare center 9 8 9
Baseball/ softball field 8 6 9
Soccer field 5 4 6
Racquetball courts 4 3 6
Equestrian facilities n/a 3 5
Other 11 13 6
Source: “What Home Buyers Really Want”, National Association of Home BuildersNAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group
Community Features that Influence Purchase Decision – History Cont.
(Percent of Respondents )
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NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
2011 COMMUNITY PREFERENCE SURVEY
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61% Choose larger lots and needing to drive, than 37% who choose to live on smaller lots within walking distance to schools, stores and restaurants
78% Americans consider being within 30-minutes of work important in choosing where to live.
88% Say the neighborhood where the house is located is a bigger consideration where to live than the size of the house.
Important Choice Decisions77% Sidewalks and places to take a walk75% High quality public schools
Source: National Realtors Association 2011 Community Survey
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Source: National Realtors Association 2011 Community Survey
Importance of Community Characteristics
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Preferred Versus Actual Community Type
Source: National Realtors Association 2011 Community Survey
22%16%
14%18%
19%12%
26%28%
19%11%
5%8%
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Preferred Versus Actual Housing Type
Source: National Realtors Association 2011 Community Survey