national - corelogic...national-4%-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% feb-90 feb-97 feb-04 feb-11 feb-18 combined...
TRANSCRIPT
©2017 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential.
Housing market
update
March 2018
1
National
©2017 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential.
Number of dwellings
9.9 million
Outstanding
mortgage debt
$1.73 trillion
Household wealth
held in housing
52.2%
Total sales p.a.
462.593
Gross value of
sales p.a.
$296.4 billion
The value of Australian housing sits at $7.5
trillion
2Source: CoreLogic, RBA, ASX, ABS, APRA
Residential Real Estate
$7.5 Trillion
Australian Superannuation
$2.5 Trillion
Australian Listed Stocks
$1.9 Trillion
Commercial Real Estate
$0.972 Trillion
©2017 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential.
-2.4%
-0.4%
-0.1%
0.1%
-0.7%
3.2%
-2.0%
-0.2%
-1.2%
0.9%
-0.8%
-5% 0% 5%
Sydney
Melbourne
Brisbane
Adelaide
Perth
Hobart
Darwin
Canberra
Combined capitals
Combined regionals
National
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Feb-90 Feb-97 Feb-04 Feb-11 Feb-18
Combined capitals Combined regionals
While capital city dwelling values have fallen
over the quarter, regional markets have seen
a rebound in growth
3Source: CoreLogic
Quarterly change in dwelling values Quarterly change in dwelling values to Feb-18
©2017 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential.
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Feb-83 Feb-90 Feb-97 Feb-04 Feb-11 Feb-18
Combined capitals Combined regionals
-0.5%
6.9%
1.8%
2.2%
-2.7%
13.1%
-7.4%
3.2%
2.0%
2.8%
2.2%
-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
Sydney
Melbourne
Brisbane
Adelaide
Perth
Hobart
Darwin
Canberra
Combined capitals
Combined regionals
National
The gap between the annual change in
capital city and regional markets is widening
as capital city value growth slows sharply
4Source: CoreLogic
Annual change in dwelling values Annual change in dwelling values to Feb-18
©2017 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential.
The higher valued housing stock is leading
the declines across the market
5Source: CoreLogic
Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values by deciles, National as at February 2018
1.5%0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4%
-0.1%-0.6%
-1.3%
-2.6%
1.4% 1.2%2.1%
3.7%
4.8%5.2%
4.5%3.6%
3.1%
-1.5%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Quarterly Annual
©2017 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential.
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Feb-98 Feb-03 Feb-08 Feb-13 Feb-18
6Source: CoreLogic
Annual change in dwelling values
Sydney dwelling values
have fallen by -2.4%
over the three months
to February 2018 and
they are -0.5% lower
over the past year.
Dwelling values across
Sydney are now -3.7%
lower than their July
2017 peak.
Sydney
Combined
capitals
©2017 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential.
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Feb-98 Feb-03 Feb-08 Feb-13 Feb-18
7Source: CoreLogic
Annual change in dwelling values
Dwelling values have
fallen by -0.4% over the
three months to
February 2018 in
Melbourne. Over the
past year dwelling
values are 6.9% higher
although they are now
-0.4% lower than they
were at their peak in
November 2017.
Melbourne
Combined
capitals
©2017 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential.
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Feb-98 Feb-03 Feb-08 Feb-13 Feb-18
8Source: CoreLogic
Annual change in dwelling values
Brisbane home values
decreased by -0.1%
over the three months
to February 2018
however, they are
1.8% higher over the
past year. Dwelling
values in Brisbane are
now -0.1% lower than
they were at their
December 2017 peak
BrisbaneCombined
capitals
©2017 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential.
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Feb-98 Feb-03 Feb-08 Feb-13 Feb-18
9Source: CoreLogic
Annual change in dwelling values
Dwelling values in
Adelaide increased by
0.1% over the three
months to February
2018 and are 2.2%
higher over the past
year. Dwelling values
in Adelaide are now
-0.2% lower than their
December 2017 peak.
Adelaide
Combined
capitals
©2017 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential.
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Feb-98 Feb-03 Feb-08 Feb-13 Feb-18
10Source: CoreLogic
Annual change in dwelling values
Perth dwelling values
fell by -0.7% over the
three months to
February 2018 and
they are -2.7% lower
over the past year.
Dwelling values in
Perth are now -11.0%
lower than they were
at their peak in June
2014.
Perth
Combined
capitals
©2017 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential.
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Feb-98 Feb-03 Feb-08 Feb-13 Feb-18
11Source: CoreLogic
Annual change in dwelling values
Dwelling values in
Hobart rose 3.2% over
the three months to
February 2018 and are
13.1% higher over the
past year. House
values have increased
by 13.6% over the
past 12 months and
unit values have
increased by 10.8%.
Hobart
Combined
capitals
©2017 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential.
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Feb-98 Feb-03 Feb-08 Feb-13 Feb-18
12Source: CoreLogic
Annual change in dwelling values
Darwin dwelling
values fell by -2.0%
over the three months
to February 2018 and
are -7.4% lower over
the past year. At the
end of February 2018,
dwelling values in
Darwin were -22.3%
lower than their
historic peak.
Darwin
Combined
capitals
©2017 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential.
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Feb-98 Feb-03 Feb-08 Feb-13 Feb-18
13Source: CoreLogic
Annual change in dwelling values
Dwelling values in
Canberra fell by -0.2%
over the three months
to February 2018
however, they are
3.2% higher over the
past year. House
values have increased
by 3.8% over the year
while unit values are
1.1% higher.
Canberra
Combined
capitals
©2017 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential.
-9.4%
-13.7%
-12.0%
1.9%
1.4%
0.3%
3.6%
-5.0%
-8.8%
-4.6%
-7.3%
-20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5%
Sydney
Melbourne
Brisbane
Adelaide
Perth
Hobart
Darwin
Canberra
Combined capitals
Combined regionals
National
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Feb-98 Feb-03 Feb-08 Feb-13 Feb-18
Transaction numbers remain lower than a year
ago due to fewer settled sales in the largest
capital cities
14Source: CoreLogic
Number of settled sales, combined capitals Year on year change in annual sales
©2017 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential.
2.3%
3.8%
0.5%
2.8%
-1.6%
10.2%
-1.6%
4.4%
2.2%
2.8%
2.4%
-5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
Sydney
Melbourne
Brisbane
Adelaide
Perth
Hobart
Darwin
Canberra
Combined capitals
Combined regionals
National
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Feb-08 Feb-10 Feb-12 Feb-14 Feb-16 Feb-18
Combined capitals Combined regionals
Regional markets have recorded stronger
annual rental growth than capital cities over
the past year
15Source: CoreLogic
Annual change in dwelling rents Annual change in dwelling rents to Feb-18
©2017 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential.
3.2%
2.9%
4.4%
4.3%
3.9%
5.0%
5.9%
4.5%
3.4%
4.9%
3.7%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
Sydney
Melbourne
Brisbane
Adelaide
Perth
Hobart
Darwin
Canberra
Combined capitals
Combined regionals
National
3%
4%
5%
6%
Feb-08 Feb-10 Feb-12 Feb-14 Feb-16 Feb-18
Combined capitals Combined regionals
Gross rental yields have continued to lift
from record low levels as rental growth
outpaces value growth in many cities
16Source: CoreLogic
Gross rental yields Gross rental yields as at Feb-18
©2017 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential.
-12.5%
-8.3%
-5.9%
-5.6%
-5.5%
-5.2%
-5.1%
-3.7%
-6.1%
-14.0% -12.0% -10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0%
Darwin
Perth
Adelaide
Brisbane
Sydney
Hobart
Melbourne
Canberra
Combined caps
38
46
61
66
68
71
77
86
63
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Hobart
Adelaide
Melbourne
Canberra
Sydney
Brisbane
Perth
Darwin
Combined caps
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
Jan 06 Jan 09 Jan 12 Jan 15 Jan 18
0
20
40
60
80
100
Jan 06 Jan 09 Jan 12 Jan 15 Jan 18
Average days on market, Combined capitals
Despite the seasonal spike, dwellings are
generally taking longer to sell than they
were a year ago
17Source: CoreLogic
Average rate of vendor discounting, Combined capitals
©2017 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential.
StateNo of new
listings
12 mth
change (%)
No of total
listings
12 mth
change (%)
NSW 13,873 3.5% 50,229 10.7%
Vic 12,757 0.0% 49,990 -5.3%
Qld 10,627 -3.6% 63,230 -3.1%
SA 2,945 -7.2% 18,086 -1.4%
WA 6,223 6.1% 35,998 0.8%
Tas 1,089 -14.3% 5,610 -25.1%
NT 240 -6.3% 2,088 -1.2%
ACT 805 -12.8% 2,356 4.3%
National 48,559 -0.2% 227,587 -0.8%
Capital cityNo of new
listings
12 mth
change (%)
No of total
listings
12 mth
change (%)
Sydney 8,595 5.3% 26,656 27.4%
Melbourne 9,398 0.8% 30,675 6.1%
Brisbane 4,544 -7.9% 19,945 -0.9%
Adelaide 2,147 -5.4% 8,543 4.5%
Perth 4,521 6.8% 22,005 2.4%
Hobart 408 -19.8% 1,083 -36.0%
Darwin 172 -9.0% 1,493 -2.9%
Canberra 784 -13.2% 2,261 3.4%
Combined capitals 30,569 0.2% 112,661 7.3%
Nationally there are fewer properties
advertised for sale than a year ago but
across individual capital cities the trends
vary substantially
18Source: CoreLogic
Number of new and total properties advertised for sale, 28 days to 25 February 2018
©2017 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential.
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18
Nu
mb
er
of
au
cti
on
s
Cle
ara
nce r
ate
Auction clearance rates are higher than
they were late last year but are lower than
they were 12 months ago
19Source: CoreLogic
Combined capital city auction clearance rates and volumes
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0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
Jun-87 Jun-97 Jun-07 Jun-17
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
Jun-87 Jun-97 Jun-07 Jun-17
020,00040,00060,00080,000
100,000120,000140,000
Jun-82 Jun-87 Jun-92 Jun-97 Jun-02 Jun-07 Jun-12 Jun-17
1.6%
2.3%
1.6%
0.6%
0.8%
0.6%
0.1%
1.7%
1.6%
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5%
NSW
VIC
QLD
SA
WA
TAS
NT
ACT
AUST
Housing demand: overseas migration
continues to trend much higher
20Source: CoreLogic, ABS
Quarterly change in national population
Net overseas migration Natural increase Annual change in population
Rolling 4 qtr average
©2017 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Dec-87 Dec-92 Dec-97 Dec-02 Dec-07 Dec-12 Dec-17
Houses Units
Although dwelling approvals are down from
their record high levels they remain well above
long-term average levels
21Source: CoreLogic, ABS
Number of dwellings approved for construction, National
Rolling 6 mth average
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$0.0
$2.0
$4.0
$6.0
$8.0
$10.0
$12.0
$14.0
$16.0
$18.0
Dec-97 Dec-01 Dec-05 Dec-09 Dec-13 Dec-17
($b
)
Owner occupier FHB
Owner occupier non-FHB
Owner occupier refinance
Investors
Demand for finance from first home buyers
continues to climb as investor mortgage
demand continues to fade
22Source: CoreLogic, ABS
Value of housing finance commitments by borrower type
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45.6%
16.9%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
Sep
-08
Sep
-09
Sep
-10
Sep
-11
Sep
-12
Sep
-13
Sep
-14
Sep
-15
Sep
-16
Sep
-17
23
APRA 10% speed limit
Regulatory changes and higher mortgage rates,
have impacted on investment demand and
interest-only demand has shrunk significantlyAnnual change in housing credit
% of mortgages originated on interest only terms
Source: CoreLogic, APRA
Monthly change in housing creditAPRA 30% origination target
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18
Owner occupier housing Investment housing
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18
Owner occupier housing Investment housing
©2017 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential.
-0.05%
0.05%
0.15%
0.30%
0.35%
0.30%
Variable, standard
Variable, discounted
Variable, 3-year fixed
Variable, standard
Variable, discounted
Variable, 3-year fixed
Ow
ner
occ
up
ier
Inve
stor
Change in avg mortgage rate since low point, Jan 2018
5.20%
4.50%
4.15%
5.80%
5.10%
4.45%
Variable, standard
Variable, discounted
Variable, 3-year fixed
Variable, standard
Variable, discounted
Variable, 3-year fixed
Ow
ner
occ
up
ier
Inve
stor
Avg mortgage rate by product type, Jan 2018
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
Jan-58 Jan-63 Jan-68 Jan-73 Jan-78 Jan-83 Jan-88 Jan-93 Jan-98 Jan-03 Jan-08 Jan-13 Jan-18
Mortgage rates remain around historic lows
for owner occupiers but have edged higher for
investors
24Source: CoreLogic, RBA
Standard variable mortgage rates over time
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Commercial Research
Update
March 2018
25
©2017 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential.
The construction pipeline saw 1,636 new
proposals across Australia, worth a
combined $12.6 billion in February
26
PID 7218519: $3.5
billion in works
proposed for the Wilton
North Precinct
QoQ
Change:
-21.6%
YoY
Change:
-23.7%
Number of Projects
QoQ
Change:
+4.2%
YoY
Change:
+41.4%
Value of Projects
©2017 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential.
Across Australia, there were 713 projects
that moved into construction, worth a
combined $5.1 billion in February
27
QoQ
Change:
-7.8%
YoY
Change:
+4.4%
Number of Projects
QoQ
Change:
+9.7%
YoY
Change:
+45.5%
Value of Projects
©2017 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential.
CoreLogic preliminary results suggest an
average commercial auction clearance
rate of 54.6% over February
28
Share of Commercial Auction Sale by Type, Australia Wide – February
Industrial Retail Hotel & Leisure Office Medical & Misc.
40% 26% 3% 26% 5%
©2017 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential. 29
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company in the world. CoreLogic provides property information, analytics and services across Australia, New Zealand and Asia, and
recently expanded its service offering through the purchase of project activity and building cost information provider Cordell. With
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across Australia. Identify the competing brands and independents at a suburb, postcode, user defined territory and State level. Easily locate
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