national economic conditions john weinberg august 11, 2010
TRANSCRIPT
National Economic Conditions
John Weinberg
August 11, 2010
2
Real Gross Domestic Product
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS QUARTER AT COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE [Percent]:
Gross Domestic Product -0.7 1.6 5.0 3.7 2.4
Personal Consumption Expenditures -1.6 2.0 0.9 1.9 1.6
Nonresidential Fixed Investment -7.5 -1.7 -1.4 7.8 17.0Structures -20.2 -12.4 -29.2 -17.8 5.2Equipment & Software 0.2 4.2 14.6 20.4 21.9
Residential Fixed Investment -19.7 10.6 -0.8 -12.3 27.9
Exports of Goods & Services -1.0 12.2 24.4 11.4 10.3Imports of Goods & Services -10.6 21.9 4.9 11.2 28.8
Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers -1.2 1.8 0.2 1.3 4.1
LEVEL IN QUARTER AT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATE [Billions of Chained (2005) Dollars]:
Change in Private Inventories -161.8 -128.2 -36.7 44.1 75.7
Net Exports of Goods & Services -342.0 -390.8 -330.1 -338.4 -425.9
-1.6
2009
Government Consumption Expenditures & Gross Investment
2010
6.1 1.6 -1.4 4.4
3
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Month over Month % Change
Income
Expenditures
Year over Year % Change
Real PersonalIncome
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
June
Personal Income & Expenditures
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics
Notes: December 2004 real personal income figure excludes the Microsoft dividend.
Apr May June
0.4 0.4 0.2
-0.1 0.2 0.1
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
4
Quarterly average of monthly changes, Thousands of persons
Q2 Avg.
Nonfarm Payroll Employment
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
July -131June -221May 432Apr. 313Mar. 208
Monthly Change
5
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
% Change from previous quarter at annual rate
Q221.9%
Real Investment in Equipment & Software
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics
6
80
85
90
95
100
105
80
85
90
95
100
105
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2007 = 100
June89.63
Industrial Production Index: Manufacturing
Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics
7
DIFFUSION INDEXES: Numbers above 50 percent indicate a preponderance of expanding firm activity.
ISM: Business Survey Indexes
Source: Institute for Supply Management/Haver Analytics
MANUFACTURING BUSINESS: NONMANUFACTURING BUSINESS:
June July June July
Purchasing Managers Index 56.2 55.5 NonManufacturing Index 53.8 54.3
Production 61.4 57.0 Business Activity 58.1 57.4
New Orders 58.5 53.5 New Orders 54.4 56.7
Employment 57.8 58.6 Employment 49.7 50.9
Supplier Deliveries 57.3 58.3 Supplier Deliveries 53.0 52.0
Inventories 45.8 50.2 Inventories 58.5 55.5
Prices 57.0 57.5 Prices 53.8 52.7
Backlog of Orders 57.0 54.5 Backlog of Orders 55.5 52.0
New Export Orders 56.0 56.5 New Export Orders 48.0 52.0
Imports 56.5 52.5 Imports 48.0 48.0
8
Overall and Core Consumer Expenditure Price Indices
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Board of Governors, Haver Analytics
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Year over Year % Change
June 1.4%1.4%
9
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Aug. 6
5-Year
5-Year5 Years Ahead
TIPS Inflation Compensation
Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics
Percent
10
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
June4.7 mil.
Existing Single-Family Home Sales
Source: National Association of Realtors/Haver Analytics
Millions of Homes
Average Annual Existing Home Sales: 1990 through 1999
11
Residential Investment
Source: Haver Analytics
12
Industrial Production
Source: Haver Analytics
13
Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
95
100
105
110
115
120
95
100
105
110
115
120
t-8 t-7 t-6 t-5 t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 t+5 t+6 t+7 t+8
Quarters Before/After NBER Business Cycle Trough (Recessions end at t)
1973:Q4 - 1975:Q1
1981:Q3 - 1982:Q4
1990:Q3 - 1991:Q1
2001:Q1 - 2001:Q4
2007:Q4 - 2009:Q2
Index, Trough=100
Short and Long Term Unemployment Rates
14Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
15
Labor Participation Rate
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
Q264.7%
Percentage
16
Federal Debt Held by Public as Percentage to GDP
Source: Office/ of Management and Budget/Haver Analytics
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Percentage