National Human Development Reports

Measurement Innovation

GCC Human Development Workshop

9-11 May 2011– Doha, Qatar

Regional, National and Local HDRs:More than just Reports

Since 1992, more than 600 National and Local HDRs, as well as 30 Regional Reports, in more then 130 countries.

• Critical to progress in human development is the ability to measure and closely monitor it.

• Human development statistics aims at evidence-based policy-making that reduce social, political and economic exclusion that keep people from realizing their capabilities:– Highlight issues (inequalities concealed by national figures)– Inform programme design and policy choice– Forecast the future– Monitor and evaluate policy impact

Statistics in NHDRs

Foster public debate on national human development challenges (and their magnitude) for policies to eliminate deprivation,•Adaptation of indices from global HDR•Innovative methodologies and indicators to measure local human development inequalities•Complementing indices with other statistical analysis (based on NHDR’s theme), to strengthen the messages•Participatory research methodologies (e.g. perception surveys or focus groups)•Capture short-term effects of policies•Capacity building for collection, analysis and dissemination of human development statistics

Data Challenges

• The quality of available data depends on:– local capacity– political situation– attention to data collection and harmonization– timeliness of data collection

• Many NHDRs supplement their findings with:– qualitative data collection and analysis (to validate findings

and put a human face on the numbers– human development principles of participation,

transparency and accountability applied to data collection, analysis and dissemination

Key statistical principles for NHDRs

•Data Collection– Involvement of national statistics organization – Adequate budgetary, human resources and time– Create a statistical advisory group for technical guidance – Learn from experience from other countries– Report on meta-data and data codification, frequency, scale,

enumeration units, selection process, coverage, etc.– Explain differences between national and international data– Ensure data comparability (in time, sources, etc.)•Data Analysis and Interpretation– Mix of qualitative and quantitative methods – Trained researcher for econometric methods– Sources of error explained clearly– Correlation is not interpreted as causality– Focus on excluded groups

Key statistical principles for NHDRs

•Constructing Composite Indices– Need for a theoretical model with a clear objective– indicators well defined, relevant and accessible, discussed with

experts and their inter-relationships analysed– Explain weighting and aggregation– Conduct sensitivity and uncertainty analyses•Disaggregating Data– If availability of reliable data: disaggregate by gender and other

parameters of exclusion– Disaggregated data must be representative of these subgroup– If possible identify trends.

“Every number is guilty unless proved innocent.” C. R. RAO (RAO 1997)

Disaggregation• Data on minorities collected for 800-

1,000 households in 5 country • The first-ever household study of the

Roma, and the first disaggregation of MDG

• Conventional household budget surveys and labour force surveys to allow comparison among countries and with the rest of population

• Nine countries have since adopted MDG targets for the Roma (baseline data from the report and follow up surveys).

South-east and Central Europe, 2003The Roma HDR

Subjective data• Methodology for a survey analysing subjective aspects in collaboration with psychologists• Two sets of indicators:

― Objective: based on the seven realms of human security in global HDR 2004, modified for the Latvia context

― Subjective: degree or intensity of people’s concern about 64 issues (individual strategies to increase security)

• 5 major security factors in Latvia, (disaggregated by gender, age, region and level of income) influenced public health and domestic violence policies

Latvia HDR 2003Human Security

Quantitative data for quality analysis

• Advocacy for eliminating gender stereotypes: girl children are often taken out of school because it is assumed that educating girls is not a “good economic investment.”

• Analysing the financial returns to education for both men and women, the report revealed that they are in fact higher for women.

Cambodia HDR 1998Women and development

Filling the gaps of global HDI

Global HDI does not account for quality education• New Measure of Knowledge with

10 indicators: quality adjusted mean years of schooling, daily newspapers, radios, TV sets, scientists and engineers, patent applications, books published, telephones, and internet.

• Aggregation of indicators with the “Borda” rule

• Comparing levels of knowledge with the “East Asian Tigers”: Arab States are lagging behind

Arab Regional HDR 2003Building a Knowledge Society

Measuring deprivations

• three social exclusion indices:– Human social exclusion index (HSEI)– Extreme human social exclusion

index (HSEI-1)– long term human social exclusion

index (HSEI-2)

• 5 dimensions: living standards, health, education, participation in society, access to services– Indicators collected through ad-hoc

survey (Laeken indicators)

• Results disaggregate geographically and urban/rural

Bosnia and Herzegovina HDR 2007Social Inclusion

Measuring new DimensionsTwo indices of local development:• Political Competition Index (PCI):

contestability of election impact the pressure to deliver services– E.g. number of parties, margins of

victory, loss of majority by party in power, etc.

• Index of Crime Incidence and Violence (ICIV)– theft, murder, intentional damage and

criminal acts

• Calculated for all Mexican states and analysed vis-à-vis state HDI

Mexico HDR 2004Local Development

Resources

Measuring Human Development: A Primer

• English Version available here: http://hdr.undp.org/en/nhdr/support/primer/

• Available on-line in Arabic: http://www.arab-hdr.org/publications/other/hdresources/primer-ar.pdf