national integrated drought information system
DESCRIPTION
National Integrated Drought Information System. Southeast US Pilot for Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin 6 November 2012. Outline. Welcome – Keith Ingram, UF, Southeast Climate Consortium - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: National Integrated Drought Information System](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062310/56816016550346895dcf174b/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
National Integrated Drought Information SystemSoutheast US Pilot for Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin6 November 2012
![Page 2: National Integrated Drought Information System](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062310/56816016550346895dcf174b/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
OutlineWelcome – Keith Ingram, UF, Southeast Climate
ConsortiumCurrent drought status and how we got here – Pam
Knox, University of Georgia & Victor Murphy, NWSStreamflows and groundwater – Todd Hamill, SERFCReservoirs’ status and projections – Bailey Crane, US
ACESeasonal outlooks – Pam Knox, UGAStreamflow forecasts – Jeff Dobur, SE River Forecast
Center, NOAASummary and Discussion – Keith Ingram, SECC
![Page 3: National Integrated Drought Information System](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062310/56816016550346895dcf174b/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Current drought status from Drought Monitor
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html
![Page 4: National Integrated Drought Information System](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062310/56816016550346895dcf174b/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
7-Day Accumulated Precipitation ending on 11/5/2012
![Page 5: National Integrated Drought Information System](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062310/56816016550346895dcf174b/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Cumulative Percent of Normal
Past 30 days
Since Jan. 1
http://water.weather.gov/precip/
![Page 6: National Integrated Drought Information System](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062310/56816016550346895dcf174b/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Departure from normal for 24-month accumulated precipitation, Sep 2012
![Page 7: National Integrated Drought Information System](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062310/56816016550346895dcf174b/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
2-year precipitation ending in September
![Page 8: National Integrated Drought Information System](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062310/56816016550346895dcf174b/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Realtime stream flow compared with historical monthly averages
Current:
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
Previous Brief:
![Page 9: National Integrated Drought Information System](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062310/56816016550346895dcf174b/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Below Normal 7-day Average Streamflows
Below normal 7-day average streamflow as compared with
historical streamflow for day shown
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
Current:
Previous brief:
![Page 10: National Integrated Drought Information System](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062310/56816016550346895dcf174b/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Lake Lanier Inflows
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
Chestatee near Dahlonega (02333500)
Chattahoochee near Cornelia (02331600)
![Page 11: National Integrated Drought Information System](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062310/56816016550346895dcf174b/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Current Streamflows
Chattahoochee at West Point (02339500)
Flint at Bainbridge (02356000)
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
![Page 12: National Integrated Drought Information System](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062310/56816016550346895dcf174b/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Streamflows
Apalachicola at Chattahoochee (02358000)
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
![Page 13: National Integrated Drought Information System](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062310/56816016550346895dcf174b/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Groundwater Status
http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov
Miller County, GA(Upper Floridan Aquifer)
![Page 14: National Integrated Drought Information System](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062310/56816016550346895dcf174b/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
USACE – ACF Operations
![Page 15: National Integrated Drought Information System](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062310/56816016550346895dcf174b/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
10/12/12
10/13/12
10/14/12
10/15/12
10/16/12
10/17/12
10/18/12
10/19/12
10/20/12
10/21/12
10/22/12
10/23/12
10/24/12
10/25/12
10/26/12
10/27/12
10/28/12
10/29/12
10/30/12
10/31/12
11/01/12
11/02/12
11/03/12
11/04/12
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7-DAY MOVING AVERAGE INFLOWVERSUS 1-DAY CHATTAHOOCHEE FLOW
ENTIRE BASIN INFLOW CHATTAHOOCHEE FLOW
AVER
AGE
INFL
OW
![Page 16: National Integrated Drought Information System](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062310/56816016550346895dcf174b/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
2012 ACF Basin Composite Conservation & Flood Storage
![Page 17: National Integrated Drought Information System](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062310/56816016550346895dcf174b/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Lake Lanier
![Page 18: National Integrated Drought Information System](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062310/56816016550346895dcf174b/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
West Point
![Page 19: National Integrated Drought Information System](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062310/56816016550346895dcf174b/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
W.F. George
![Page 20: National Integrated Drought Information System](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062310/56816016550346895dcf174b/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Woodruff
![Page 21: National Integrated Drought Information System](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062310/56816016550346895dcf174b/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-5.shtml
5-Day Precipitation Forecast
![Page 22: National Integrated Drought Information System](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062310/56816016550346895dcf174b/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
![Page 23: National Integrated Drought Information System](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062310/56816016550346895dcf174b/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml
7-day average Pacific Ocean SST Anomalies
![Page 24: National Integrated Drought Information System](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062310/56816016550346895dcf174b/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
![Page 25: National Integrated Drought Information System](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062310/56816016550346895dcf174b/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
During a neutral phase, the likelihood of a severe freeze is much greater than during either an El Niño or a La Niña event.
![Page 26: National Integrated Drought Information System](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062310/56816016550346895dcf174b/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Fall Rainfall Climatology
![Page 27: National Integrated Drought Information System](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062310/56816016550346895dcf174b/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
1-3 Month Temperature Outlook
![Page 28: National Integrated Drought Information System](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062310/56816016550346895dcf174b/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
1- and 3-Month Precipitation Outlook
![Page 29: National Integrated Drought Information System](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062310/56816016550346895dcf174b/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Tropical Outlook
![Page 30: National Integrated Drought Information System](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062310/56816016550346895dcf174b/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
![Page 31: National Integrated Drought Information System](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062310/56816016550346895dcf174b/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Above Normal
Near Normal
Below Normal
1-Month Streamflow Forecasts
Apalachicola WatershedSoutheast River Forecast Center
Lake Lanier Inflows
Whitesburg
West Point
Columbus
WF George
Columbus
Woodruff
Blountstown
Lovejoy
Carsonville
Albany
November 5th – December 5th
2012
![Page 32: National Integrated Drought Information System](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062310/56816016550346895dcf174b/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Above Normal
Near Normal
Below Normal
3-Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forecasts
Apalachicola WatershedSoutheast River Forecast Center
Lake Lanier Inflows
Whitesburg
West Point
Columbus
WF George
Columbus
Woodruff
Blountstown
November 5th 2012 – February 4th 2013
Lovejoy
Carsonville
Albany
37%
42%
21%
68%
23%9%
60%32%
8%
71%20%
9%
76%
19%5%
![Page 33: National Integrated Drought Information System](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062310/56816016550346895dcf174b/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Summary• Rains during the previous week have been less
than 0.5 inches and drought continues throughout the basin except the Florida panhandle
• 30-day rainfall totals are less than 20% of normal and rainfall to date this year is 50-80% of normal
• The two-year rainfall total is 10 to 30 in below normal in the basin, with the 2-year rainfall total for Sep 2012 being the lowest since 1900
![Page 34: National Integrated Drought Information System](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062310/56816016550346895dcf174b/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Summary• Inflows to Lake Lanier have dropped sharply and
streamflows and ground water remain near historic lows in southern GA and AL
• Full basin inflows have dropped below 2000 cfs, well below the 5000 cfs needed to meet minimum flows for the Apalachicola
• Composite storage for the basin is in the middle of conservation zone 3 and is expected to continue to track downward for the near future
• Less than 0.5 inch of rainfall is forecast I the basin for the next 5 days
![Page 35: National Integrated Drought Information System](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062310/56816016550346895dcf174b/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Summary• ENSO Neutral conditions continue, which means that we
can expect 3 to 5 inches of rain in the ACF for each of the months of November and December
• The 3-month outlook calls for relief of drought through most of the basin
• Nonetheless, streamflow forecasts for the next 1 month show the greatest probability of below normal streamflows throughout the basin
• Streamflows for the next 3 months also have the greatest probability of being below normal, except for Lake Lanier, which is has a 42% probability of being normal, but also has a 37% probability of being below normal
![Page 36: National Integrated Drought Information System](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062310/56816016550346895dcf174b/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
ReferencesSpeakers
Pam Knox, UGAVictor Murphy, NWSTodd Hamill, SERFCBailey Crane, USACEJeff Dobur, SERFC
ModeratorKeith Ingram, SECC
Additional informationGeneral drought information
http://drought.gov http://www.drought.unl.edu
General climate and El Niño information http://agroclimate.org/climate/
Streamflow monitoring & forecastinghttp://waterwatch.usgs.gov http://www.srh.noaa.gov/serfc/
Groundwater monitoringhttp://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov
![Page 37: National Integrated Drought Information System](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062310/56816016550346895dcf174b/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Thank you!
Next briefing20 November 2012, 1:00 pm EST
Slides from this briefing will be posted at http://drought.gov/drought/regional-programs/acfrb/acfrb-home
Please send comments and suggestions to:[email protected]