national / international ops rain, temperature, wind weaknesses & solutions national /...
TRANSCRIPT
national / international ops
rain, temperature, wind
weaknesses & solutions
national / international ops
rain, temperature, wind
weaknesses & solutions
Meteorological information for Meteorological information for locust control operationslocust control operations
FAO experienceFAO experience
Meteorological information for Meteorological information for locust control operationslocust control operations
FAO experienceFAO experience
Keith CressmanLocust Forecasting OfficeRome, Italy
Keith CressmanLocust Forecasting OfficeRome, Italy
Desert Locust countriesDesert Locust countries
2 / 9
Recession area = 16 million sq. km
Invasion area = 32 million sq. km (20% of world land mass)
Recession area = 16 million sq. km
Invasion area = 32 million sq. km (20% of world land mass)
MAU
MLI NERCHD
SUDERI
EGY SAU
YEM
SOM
OMN
IRN PAK
IND
LIBALG
MOR
TUN
ETH
DJI
Migration after summer Migration after winter/spring
Desert Locust programmesDesert Locust programmes
3 / 9
National (Locust Control Centres)
Outputs
• assess situation• forecasts (short)• plan surveys and control ops
10-day sit reps
monthly bulletins
Regional (FAO Commissions)• national strengthening
International (FAO HQ)• assess situation• forecast (short-medium)• advise surveys
monthly bulletins
interim updates
warnings
Desert Locust information flowDesert Locust information flow
4 / 9
International -
National -
Field -
International -
National -
Field -
FAO Desert LocustInformation Service
Locust Control Centre
survey and control teams
FAO Desert LocustInformation Service
Locust Control Centre
survey and control teams
( RAMSES data files, reports )
( forms, eLocust data files )
Current Desert Locust situation / forecastCurrent Desert Locust situation / forecast
Spring 2005 breeding
Gambia
G. Bissau Guinea
AlgeriaWestern Sahara
Libya
Morocco
Tunisia
Cape Verde
Mauritania
MaliNiger
Chad
SenegalBurkina
Faso
bands swarmsbands swarms invading swarmsinvading swarms
18 Oct 2004
5 / 9
The situation on the ground ...The situation on the ground ...
6 / 9
Meteorological data and Desert LocustMeteorological data and Desert Locust
7 / 9
Data Actual Forecast Use
Rainfall total daily
decadal
monthly
+1 day
+10 day
+30 day
seasonal
breeding
migration
Temperatu
re
min/max daily
decadal
monthly
+1 day
+10 day
+30 day
seasonal
maturation
migration
Wind direction
speed
height
12 h migration
Weather thresholdsWeather thresholds
8 / 9
25 mm in two consecutive months
> 17°C (copulating & laying)> 15-26°C (take-off)> 9-17°C (sustained flight)
< 7 m/s (take-off)< 1800 m (flight heights)
25 mm in two consecutive months
> 17°C (copulating & laying)> 15-26°C (take-off)> 9-17°C (sustained flight)
< 7 m/s (take-off)< 1800 m (flight heights)
RainRain
TempTemp
WindWind
varies if solitary/gregarious locusts
Current weaknessesCurrent weaknesses
9 / 9
• poor rain station coverage
• national station data incomplete / errors
• LCC does not make use of data
• weak LCC / NMS link
• FAO/DLIS does not use forecast products
• poor rain station coverage
• national station data incomplete / errors
• LCC does not make use of data
• weak LCC / NMS link
• FAO/DLIS does not use forecast products
increase rains stations
reduce transmission errors
indicate data requirements
regional workshop
use forecast products
increase rains stations
reduce transmission errors
indicate data requirements
regional workshop
use forecast products
Potential solutionsPotential solutions
• poor rain station coverage
• national station data incomplete / errors
• LCC does not make use of data
• weak LCC / NMS link
• FAO/DLIS does not use forecast products
• poor rain station coverage
• national station data incomplete / errors
• LCC does not make use of data
• weak LCC / NMS link
• FAO/DLIS does not use forecast products
ID Day/Mo Hr Period .mm Station
61627 7 10 12 6 60 Linguere SEN
61627 7 10 18 12 60 Linguere SEN
61627 8 10 6 24 20 Linguere SEN
62640 7 10 12 24 722 Abu Hamed SUD
62640 8 10 0 24 700 Abu Hamed SUD
62650 7 10 12 24 722 Dongola SUD
62660 7 10 12 24 622 Karima SUD
62660 7 10 21 24 700 Karima SUD
62660 8 10 0 24 600 Karima SUD
62680 7 10 21 24 622 Atbara SUD
62721 7 10 12 24 722 Khartoum SUD
62721 7 10 21 24 622 Khartoum SUD