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National Park Service
Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park
Climate Change in the NPS and the Smokies
National Park Service
Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park
Key Points from Jon Jarvis
• Climate Change is the greatest threat to NPS units.
• It IS happening and it IS caused by humans.
• View it as an opportunity to bring us together, causing us to think and act at the landscape scale.
• Opportunity to create more public – private partnerships
Climate Change Flat Hat Chat
National Park Service
Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park
NPS PrioritiesMitigation
National Park Service
Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park
Science
National Park Service
Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park
Adaptation
National Park Service
Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park
Communication
National Park Service
Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park
NPS Resources
National Park Service
Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park
Climate Change Education:What doesn’t Work
• Fear Appeals
• Doomsday Prophecies
• Arbitrarily Balanced Positions
• Technical & Scientific Language
National Park Service
Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park
• Many Americans think of climate change as a distant problem. National Park Rangers and Interpreters have a unique opportunity to inform, educate, and help Americans connect the dots between global climate change and the United States, through our most prized national landscapes.
• But showing and helping Americans experience the current and projected impacts, should be an especially effective means of education.
National Park Service
Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park
• #1 – Tell local, personal stories about our changing landscape
• #2 – Utilize new technology and social media
• #3 – Create a citizen science program
• #4 – Make connections to the economy, to our families, to patriotism; make it personally relevant
• #5 – Create messages of hope!
Source: Dr. Anthony Leiserowitz, Yale
National Park Service
Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park
Climate Change Impacts in the AppalachiansMore intense precipitation events, extended drought
periods and heat waves
increases in soil erosion, stream sedimentation and wildfires
increases in diseases and insect outbreaks
National Park Service
Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park
National Park Service
Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park
What Makes the Smokies So Special?• Unparalleled scenery
– largest sweep of undeveloped upland wilderness in the East
• 16 peaks > 6,000’
• Rugged, varied topography
• 2,000 miles of streams, 900 miles of trails
• Biodiversity hotspot
National Park Service
Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park
Long-tail Shrew: Species of Concern in NC
Spruce-Fir Moss Spider: Federally Listed Endangered
Species
Red-Cheek Salamander: Smokies Endemic
Saw-Whet Owl: Federal Species of Concern
Photo:Coyle
Photo:Chatfield
Spruce Fir Forest
National Park Service
Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park
National Park Service
Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park
More Questions Than Answers
How much rain will we get in the Smokies?
How will more intense storms or longer droughts impact streams and the life within?
Will there be species shift?
Will pollinators lose synchronization with their host plants?
Will stress from changes in water and temperature impact the ecosystem’s ability to adapt to threats from exotic species or acid deposition?
How will rain be distributed in time and space?
Will bird migration still coincide with food availability?
Are streams warming over time and how will that impact life within?
What are the target species we should be track (i.e. what are the best ecological indicators of climate change - amphibians, avifauna, inverts, etc.)?
National Park Service
Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park
As environmental thresholds shift in space and time, species can either:
1. Adapt2. Migrate3. Become extinct
Could result in native species being replaced by more competitively superior exotic invasive species.
Delcourt and Delcourt, 2009
Unique High Elevation Ecosystem
National Park Service
Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park
Density Distribution of the Red-cheeked salamander
(Plethodon jordani) at GRSM
National Park Service
Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park
Average Daily Minimum January Temperature
(J. Fridley. 2009 Syracuse)
Maximum July Temperature
Fridley, 2009 Syracuse
National Park Service
Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park
ATBI in the Smokies
Known
Estimated Unknown
Non-Vascular Plants / Fungi
Vascular Plants
Invertebrates
Vertebrates
National Park Service
Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park
New Park Records: 7,391
Beetles42 new to science, 1,488 new park records
Snails7 new to science, 50 new park records
Spiders41 new to science, 266 new park records
Millipedes2 new to science, 22 new park records
Algae78 new to science, 566 new park records
Flies29 new to science, 317 new park records
Mushrooms57 new to science, 583 new park records
National Park Service
Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park
New Species to Science: 922
Cosberella lamaralexanderiCollembola = Springtail60 new to science, 144 new park records
Ramazzottius n. sp.Tardigrade = Water bear18 new to science, 55 new park records
Diachaea n sp.Slime Mold17 new to science, 139 new park records
Neophylax kolodskiiCaddisfly5 new to science, 78 new park records
Ligdia n sp.Moth/Butterfly36 new to science, 944 new park records
National Park Service
Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park
National Park Service
Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park
Phenology• The timing of biological activities, life cycle events
• Monitoring phenology is the best way to answer the previous questions
National Park Service
Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park
Timing of Biological Activity• Some seasonal biological
activities are happening 15-20 days earlier than several decades ago: – Trees blooming earlier– Migrating birds arriving earlier– Bees, Butterflies emerging earlier
• Changes in timing differ from species to species, so ecological interactions are disrupted.
European pied flycatcher chicks are now
born later than the caterpillars they eat.
Images used under the terms of the GNU
Free Documentation License.
National Park Service
Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park
Some Phenology Data from Tremont
National Park Service
Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park
National Park Service
Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park
Tornado Damage
April 27, 2011: Category 4, Winds 166-220 mph
National Park Service
Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park
Citizen Science Climate Change Project(s)
Give Them a Personal Connection
National Park Service
Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park
Don’t argue! Offer non-threatening solutions
National Park Service
Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park
Human causes - Human solutions
National Park Service
Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park
Susan Sachs, Great Smoky Mountains National Park
Any Questions?
National Park Service
Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park
National Park Service
Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park
National Park Service
Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park
Myth: Current warming trend is a natural process, the Earth has done this before and nature is capable of coping
Common Myths
National Park Service
Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park
Global Warming or Climate Change?
National Park Service
Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park
Myth: Scientists are in disagreement• 97% agree that climate change is real and
is caused by human activity.• Appearance of disagreement is part of
scientific process as researchers explore hypotheses and theories
• Uncertainty exists on exact impacts, we move forward with the best information available.
• Some of the “disagreement” is just perception about scientific terms i.e. “likely” = between a 66% and 89% probability in the IPCC report.
National Park Service
Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park
Myth: Climate Change is not Caused by Humans
National Park Service
Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park
Myth: If Climate Change were true, we would be seeing impacts already
National Park Service
Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park
“Weather isn’t going to go away because of Climate Change” Dr. Gavin Schmidt, NASA Climate Scientist
Myth: Cold Weather Disproves Climate Change
La Nina El Nino
National Park Service
Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park
Myth: Climate Change is Caused by the Sun
All regions warmed at the surface but the stratosphere cooled the most at the highest altitude
National Park Service
Appalachian Highlands Science Learning CenterGreat Smoky Mountains National Park
Unique habitats
Myth: There is plenty of time to react to Climate Change
Many greenhouse gases will stay in the atmosphere for many years.
• Methane has an atmospheric lifetime of 13.5 years
• Nitrous oxide has an atmospheric lifetime of 120 years
• CO2 atmospheric lifetime is difficult to calculate, recent work indicates it may be as long as tens of thousands of years or as short as 100 years.