national park service pika habitat occupancy study
TRANSCRIPT
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National Park Service pika habitat occupancy studyPreliminary results from eight parks
Presenters:Chris Ray & Mackenzie Jeffress
Date: 2/11/2011
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Pikas in Peril: Multi‐regional vulnerability assessment of a climate‐sensitive sentinel species
Funded in 2010 by the NPS Climate Change Response Program
Principal Investigators: Chris Ray, Mackenzie Jeffress, Clinton Epps and Susan Wolff
Goals: Assess the American pika’s vulnerability to future climate scenarios projected for the western United States, support the interpretive mission of the NPS, and involve citizens in park science
Following methods described in NPS pika monitoring protocol (Jeffress et al. 2011)
http://science.nature.nps.gov/im/units/ucbn /monitor/pika/pika_peril/
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Targeted for Genetic Studies
Parks with confirmed pika
populations
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1. Document pika occurrence patterns and predict pika distribution in 8 parks
2. Measure gene flow and model connectivity of pika populations within 5 park units.
3. Project climate change effects on the future distribution, connectivity and vulnerability of pika populations in each park.
Probability of occurrence in
CRMO
FromRodhouse et al.
(2010)
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Establish plots during the “haying” season
Late June – early October
Each plot = 24 m in diameter
Survey plots1‐2 surveys/plot
20‐30 minutes/survey
Record pikas and pika sign
Record habitat variables
Collect genetic samples during plot surveys and in transit between plots
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RESULTS ‐ CRLA
Survey period Aug‐Sep
# plots surveyed 85
% “occupied” 65%*
Elevation range (m) 1170‐2429
# genetic samples 190
* Occupancy data are not yet adjusted for detection error
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2010 occupancy survey resultsCRLA –
Crater Lake NP
“Site” = plot
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RESULTS ‐ CRMO
Survey period Jul & Sep
# plots surveyed 56
% occupied 21%*
Elevation range (m) 1511‐1833
# genetic samples 11
* Occupancy data are not yet adjusted for detection error
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2010 occupancy survey resultsCRMO – Craters of the Moon
NMP
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RESULTS ‐ GRTE
Survey period Jul‐Oct
# plots surveyed 119
% “occupied” 45%*
Elevation range (m) 2092‐3635
# genetic samples 112
Photos: Chris Paige (NPS)
* Occupancy data are not yet adjusted for detection error
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2010 occupancy
survey resultsGRTE – Grand
Teton NP
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RESULTS ‐ GRSA
Survey period Aug‐Oct
# plots surveyed 49
% “occupied” 71%*
Elevation range (m) 2811‐3832
Genetic analyses are not funded for GRSA
* Occupancy data are not yet adjusted for detection error
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2010 occupancy
survey resultsGRSA – Great Sand Dunes
NPP
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RESULTS ‐ LAVO
Survey period Jul‐Sep
# plots surveyed 76
% “occupied” 15%*
Elevation range (m) 1840‐3091
# genetic samples 15* Occupancy data are not yet adjusted for detection error
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2010 occupancy
survey resultsLAVO –Lassen
Volcanic NP
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RESULTS ‐ LABE
Survey period Jun & Sep
# plots surveyed 101
% “occupied” 24%*
Elevation range (m) 1249‐1717
Genetic analyses are not funded for LABE
* Occupancy data are not yet adjusted for detection error
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2010 occupancy survey results
LABE – Lava Beds NM
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RESULTS ‐ ROMO
Survey period Jul‐Oct
# plots surveyed 58
% “occupied” 67%*
Elevation range (m) 2572‐3795
# genetic samples 59
* Occupancy data are not yet adjusted for detection error
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2010 occupancy survey resultsROMO – Rocky Mountain NP
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RESULTS ‐ YELL
Survey period Jun‐Sep
# plots surveyed 133
% “occupied” 54%*
Elevation range (m) 1636‐2936
Genetic analyses are not funded for YELL* Occupancy data are not yet adjusted for detection error
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2010 occupancy
survey resultsYELL –
Yellowstone NP
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2010 occupancy*
survey results
for targeted parks
71%
67%
45%
54%
21%
15%
24%
65%
* Occupancy data are not yet adjusted for detection error
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2010 genetic sampling
in targeted parks
Targeted for Genetic Studies
190
15
11
112
59
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• High detection by independent observers• GRSA and ROMO crew: p ≥ 0.92• CRLA, LABE, and LAVO crew: p = 0.89• Discrepancies: Only in plots where just a single “fresh” fecal
sample was found (not very often)
• Potential effects of timing/season• Preliminary analyses suggest that detectability was lower in
some of the earliest surveys• Surveys in 2011 will begin later in the season (after June 30)
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• Occupancy modeling• 2010+2011 data• Detection rates
• Habitat associations• Ecology• Topography• Climate
• Genetic analyses• Vulnerability analyses
A timeline could go over here
Activity Timeline
Preliminary data analysis, analyze genetic samples
Right now
Second year of field surveys/sample collection
Summer / Fall 2011
Occupancy modeling, genetic modeling and vulnerability analyses
Winter / Spring 2012
Complete reports and predictive distribution modeling/mapping
2012
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• Occupancy modeled as a (logistic) function of • elevation, slope gradient, aspect• rock size, crevice depth, rock shade • vegetation cover/classes, presence of water• marmot/woodrat presence• climatic variables!
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Previous data are available from identical or “similar” studies in…• Craters of the Moon NM&P• Lava Beds NM• Southern Rockies
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Aa lava
Pahoehoe lava
But…occupancy was higher in more complex lava landscapes
RESULTS ‐ CRMO
Survey period Jul‐Sep
# plots surveyed 56
% occupied 21%*
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2007-2009 inventory work (Rodhouse et al. 2010) 2010 survey results
Pahoehoe lava
Aa lava
µ = 0.45 µ = 0.46
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RESULTS ‐ LABE
Survey period Jun‐Sep
# plots surveyed 101
% “occupied” 24%
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May‐July September‐November
Occupancy N Occupancy N
Cave sites 79 % 14 42 % 19
Flow sites 77 % 44 62 % 21
2006 plot use by pikas in Lava Beds National Parkafter omitting sites with low search time (<20 mins)
2010 RESULTS ‐ LABE
Survey period Jun 19‐29 Aug 29‐Sep 2
N 101 50 (resurveys)
% “occupied” 7 %* 36 % *
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2010 occupancy survey results
LABE – Lava Beds NM
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2006 (Sep‐Nov)occupancy survey
resultsLABE – Lava Beds
NM
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Occupancy was high in unrelated studies in 2009 and 2010
Occupancy 2010
ROMO 67 %*
GRSA 71 %*
2009Erb et al.
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Other Key Players: Mike Britten, Lisa Garrett, Kerry Gunther, Thomas Rodhouse, Billy Schweiger, Kathi Irvine, Jessica Castillo, Liesl Peterson, and Tom OlliffNPS Inventory and Monitoring Network staff: Greater Yellowstone, Rocky Mountain, Upper Columbia BasinPark staff including but not limited to resource managers, interpreters and superintendentsOver 30 field technicians in 2010!
Approved NPS pika monitoring protocol is now available