national poll april 24-27, 2014 n=1,960 likely voters #140404
TRANSCRIPT
NATIONAL POLL
April 24-27, 2014N=1,960 Likely Voters
#140404
2
Total DEM(35%)
IND(32%)
GOP(33%)
Age 18-29
(17%)
Age 30-44
(24%)
Age 45-64
(38%)
Age 65+(21%)
35%
60%
29%
13%
47%36% 32% 28%
65%
40%
71%
87%
53%64% 68% 72%
RD
Now, generally speaking, would you say that things in the country are going in the right direction, or have they pretty seriously gotten off on
the wrong track?
WT
Total By Party By Age
RD WT RD WT RD WT RD WT RD WT RD WT RD WT
NATION OFF ON WRONG TRACK. YOUNG VOTERS & DEMS ARE DRIVING FORCE OF LIMITED OPTIMISM.
3
Total
DEM(35%)
IND(32%)
GOP(33%)
Age 18-29
(17%)
Age 30-44
(24%)
Age 45-64
(38%)
Age 65+(21%)
42%
78%
37%
8%
58%
41% 41%31%
56%
20%
59%
90%
38%
56% 57%68%
And, do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?
OBAMA DEEPLY INVERTED AMONG INDS. HOWEVER, YOUNG VOTERS VIEW HIM POSITIVELY.
Total By Party By Age
Ap Ds Ap Ds Ap Ds Ap Ds Ap Ds Ap Ds Ap Ds Ap Ds
4
Total
Total
Total
35% 30%
50%55% 58%
35%
Do you believe that the Obama
Administration has done a good job
running the federal government?
OBAMA ADMINISTRATION MIRED IN A CRISIS OF COMPETENCY AND HONESTY. MAJORITY BELIEVE ADMINISTRATION INFRINGES ON CIVIL LIBERTIES.
Yes No Yes No Yes No
Do you think the Obama Administration has been honest with the American people
about what is happening in the
federal government?
Do you think the Obama
Administration is infringing on the civil liberties of
American citizens?
5
52%
39%
35%
32%
26%
22%
13%
13%
10%
91%
86%
82%
79%
77%
63%
56%
47%
51%
Education
Immigration Reform
Health CareFederal Budget Deficit and
Debt
Jobs/Unemployment
The Economy
Medicare and Social Security
Foreign Policy
Energy Policy
LOOKING AT BALLOT AMONG THOSE WHO CONSIDER EACH ISSUE “THE TOP PRIORITY”…
Thinking about the same list of issues, how high of a priority do you think each one should be for the federal government over the next six months before the 2014 Congressional elections? Should it be… The top priority, One of the top
priorities, A mid-level priority, …or… Not a priority?
DEM GOP
39% 42%
42% 37%
36% 44%
31% 55%
44% 36%
50% 30%
35% 44%
31% 49%
41% 35%
“Top” “One of Top”
Generic Preference
among “Top”
6
March 30
April 5
April 27
DEM(35%)
IND(32%)
GOP(33%)
38% 37% 39%
81%
30%
3%
42% 39% 41%
7%
30%
88%
REPUBLICANS ARE MAINTAINING A SLIGHT EDGE IN GENERIC SENATE PREFERENCE THANKS TO SLIGHTLY MORE-COALESCED BASE, INDIES ARE EVEN.
DEM
And, when you think about the upcoming 2014 elections for U.S. Senate happening in some states, which is your preference for the outcome of
the election? Is it…
GOP DEM GOP DEM GOP DEM GOP DEM GOP GOP
Total By Party
R+4
R+2
R+2
7
National All Senate States
Competitive Senate States*
DEM(35%)
IND(32%)
GOP(33%)
28% 27% 24%
59%
17%4%
39% 40% 35%
10%
35%
73%
33% 33%41%
30%
47%
23%
Sup
Will your vote this November for federal offices such as U.S. Senate and U.S. House be a vote to…
Send a signal of support for President Obama,Send a signal of opposition to President Obama, OR
Not send a signal either way about President Obama?
Opp
* “Competitive Senate States” based on all states considered Lean or Toss-up by Cook Political Report.
NoSig. SupOpp
NoSig. SupOpp
NoSig.
Totals By Party
SupOppNoSig. SupOpp
NoSig. Opp
NoSig.
VOTERS IN COMPETITIVE SENATE STATES ARE INDICATING THEY ARE LESS LIKELY TO SEND A SIGNAL ON OBAMA WITH THEIR VOTE.
8
Generic SenateUndecided
Generic SenateUndecided
Generic SenateUndecided
31% 34%
11%
69%61%
31%
AMONG GENERIC UNDECIDED, ONLY 42% SAY THEY WILL VOTE TO SEND A SIGNAL TO OBAMA.
Right Directio
n
Among Voters Undecided on Generic Senate Control (20% of Sample):
Wrong Track Approve
Disapprove Support
Opposition
Mood of Country Obama Job Approval
Vote to send a signal of ________ for/to President
Obama
INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE
10
Please indicate if you have a Very Favorable, Somewhat Favorable, Somewhat Unfavorable, or Very Unfavorable opinion of…
Total
Total
Total
23-Mar
29%
10% 8% 12%
49%
26%
42%
13%
The Internal Revenue Service
(IRS)
Fav
Sample A:Lois Lerner
Sample B:Lois Lerner, the
former IRS employee accused of
wrongfully targeting conservative groups
for additional scrutiny from the IRS based on their
political beliefs
Previous PollConducted March
21-23Image: Tom Steyer
INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE FAIRLY UNPOPULAR. LOIS LERNER BETTER KNOWN/LESS LIKED THAN TOM STEYER (PREV. POLL) EVEN BEFORE DESCRIPTION.
Unfav Fav Unfav Fav Unfav Fav Unfav
11
Total DEM(35%)
IND(32%)
GOP(33%)
Mod.(32%)
Cons.(39%)
Comp. Senate
SenateUnd.
8% 13% 6% 5% 8% 3% 7% 3%
42%27%
47% 52%25%
62%
30% 27%
10% 12% 6% 11% 8% 9% 8% 5%26%
14% 25%40%
21%44%
19% 15%
Unfv Fav Unfv Unfv Unfv Unfv Unfv Unfv Unfv
Total By Party By Ideology
Sample B: Lois Lerner w/Description
Sample A: Lois Lerner
Fav Unfv Fav Unfv Unfv Fav Unfv Unfv Unfv Unfv Unfv
LOIS LERNER AMONG KEY DEMOS…
54%VeryUnfa
v
37%VeryUnfa
v
* “Competitive Senate States” based on all states considered Lean or Toss-up by Cook Political Report.
CompetitiveSenateStates
Generic Senate Undecid
ed
12
Total
Total
27%14%
43%
67%
Do you think the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has done
a good job in fulfilling their mission to administer the tax
code?
IRS DOES NOT GET GLOWING SCORE ON FULFILLING MISSION, AND FULLY TWO-THIRDS SAY IRS SHOULD NOT HAVE A ROLE ADMINISTERING OBAMACARE.
Yes
Do you believe that the Internal Revenue Service
(IRS) should have a role in administering the 2010
health care law, sometimes called ObamaCare?
No Yes No
13
Total
DEM(35%)
IND(32%)
GOP(33%)
18-29(17%)
30-44(24%)
45-64(38%)
65+(21%)
9% 13%6% 9%
24%15%
4% 1%
82% 78% 83% 85%
62%72%
89%96%
A government investigation recently revealed that the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has paid over $2.8million in bonuses to employees with recent disciplinary problems, including over
$1million to workers who owed back taxes. The report says that this is inconsistent with the IRS mission to enforce tax laws. Knowing this, do you have a more favorable or a less favorable
impression of the Internal Revenue Service (IRS)?
NEWS OF IRS “SCANDAL” RECEIVED WITH NEGATIVITY. NOTE LITTLE PARTISAN DIFFERENCE, BUT SOME PUSHBACK FROM YOUNGER VOTERS.
LessFav
MoreFav
LessFav
LessFav
LessFav
MoreFav
LessFav
MoreFav
LessFav
LessFav
LessFav
Total By Party By Age
14
Total
DEM(35%)
IND(32%)
GOP(33%)
Senate Und.(20%)
17%24%
14% 11% 7%
66%
52%
69%78%
64%
HAVING SENT A LETTER TO IRS ON TARGETING (MERKLEY, SHAHEEN, FRANKEN) HAS MESSAGE POTENTIAL, SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY.
More Likely
Total By Party Generic Senate
Undecided
In the summer of 2013, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) came under fire for improperly targeting conservative groups for additional scrutiny and delays based on their ideological leanings. It recently
came to light that a group of Democratic U.S. Senators sent a letter to the IRS in March of 2012 encouraging this type of action. If one of these Senators represented your state, would you be more
likely or less likely to vote for their re-election having learned this?
Less Likely
More Likely
Less Likely
More Likely
Less Likely
Less Likely
Less Likely
45%MuchLess 25%
MuchLess
46%MuchLess
66%MuchLess
40%MuchLess