national survey of american jews - amazon s3...gba strategies – national survey of american jews...

National Survey of American Jews July 2011

Figure GBA Strategies – National Survey of American Jews

Survey Overview

1

•  National survey of 800 American Jews, ages 18 and over

•  Conducted July 7-12, 2011

•  Survey conducted with a web-based panel of 900,000 Americans, and administered by email invitation; respondents re-screened as Jewish in order to be eligible for the survey

•  Demographic and political measures consistent the most recent Gallup and American Jewish Committee surveys conducted with American Jews over the past year


Key Findings

•  President Obama retains very strong standing with American Jews –  High job approval, large leads over Romney and Bachmann in 2012 vote –  Most ‘08 Obama (and McCain) contributors plan to contribute again –  Intense opposition to Glenn Beck, Tea Party Movement, and Republican Party

•  Jewish support for US leadership in Middle East continues –  Large majority seeks active US role to resolve Arab-Israeli conflict –  Broad support for detailed comprehensive peace agreement

•  Mixed views toward the UN –  Jews think UN is important, but not doing a good job –  Younger Jews believe UN treats Israel fairly; older Jews believe UN treats unfairly –  Nearly half oppose US voting to recognize Palestinian statehood, while one-third support

it; large bloc remains undecided

•  Overwhelming support for allowing Jewish organizations that criticize Israeli policy to participate in Jewish community events

–  Support spans synagogue membership and denomination

2


Election 2012

3


2012 Vote – Barack Obama vs. Mitt Romney

63

24

13

0

20

40

60

80

100

Obama Romney Undecided

Vote

4

70

27

4 0

20

40

60

80

100

Obama Romney Undecided

Simulated Vote

+39 +43

(Allocating undecided voters by party identification)


2012 Vote – Barack Obama vs. Michele Bachmann

67

19 13

0

20

40

60

80

100

Obama Bachmann Undecided

Vote

5

73

23

4 0

20

40

60

80

100

Obama Bachmann Undecided

Simulated Vote

+48 +50

(Allocating undecided voters by party identification)


Current Presidential Vote and Pre-2008 Vote

62 63 67

32

24 19

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Obama vs. McCain Vote (July 2008)

Obama vs. Romney Vote (July 2011)

Obama vs. Bachmann Vote (July 2011)

Democratic Vote Republican Vote

6

+30 +39 +48


Donors Contributed to Obama Over McCain 4-to-1

81

16

4 0

20

40

60

80

Did Not Contribute Contributed to Obama's Campaign

Contributed to McCain's Campaign

In the 2008 Presidential election, did you make a financial contribution to the campaign of Barack Obama or the campaign of John McCain?

7


High and Comparable Level of Return Donors for Obama and Republicans

82 80

0

20

40

60

80

100

Definitely/Probably/Already Have Contributed to Obama's Campaign

Definitely/Probably/Already Have Contributed to a Republican's Campaign

Thinking about the 2012 Presidential election, will you make a financial contribution to… Barack Obama's campaign? (Among those who contributed to Obama’s campaign) a Republican candidate's campaign? (Among those who contributed to McCain’s campaign)

8

Figure GBA Strategies – National Survey of American Jews Figure

President Obama’s Standing

9


Obama’s Job Approval Rating Remarkably Steady

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

10

62 60 60 60

38 40 32

40

0

20

40

60

80

March 2010 November 2010 June 2011 (Gallup Monthly

Average)

July 2011

Approve Dissapprove


Obama’s Job Approval Far Exceeds Congress

60

40

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Approve Dissapprove

Obama Approval

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as

president?

11

27

73

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Approve Dissapprove

Congress Approval

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Congress is doing?

-46 +20


Obama’s Job Approval on Key Issues

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling…

12

60

40

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Approve Dissapprove

His Job As President

51 49

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Approve Dissapprove

The Economy

44

56

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Approve Dissapprove

The Arab-Israeli Conflict

+20 +3 -12


Perceptions of Country’s Direction Worsen

10

36

54

41 44

34

90

64

46

59 56

66

0

20

40

60

80

100

July-08 January-09 July-09 January-10 July-10 January-11 July-11

Right Direction Wrong Track

Generally speaking, do you think that things in this country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?

13


Democrats, Netanyahu Viewed Favorably; Republicans, Conservatives Viewed Poorly

66 56

50 49

18 16 16 12 12 10

-22 -34

-20

-33

-67 -73

-60 -57

-74 -66

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

The Republican

Party

George W.

Bush

Mitt Romney

Michele Bachmann

The Tea Party

Movement

Glenn Beck

Favorable Unfavorable

14

Bill Clinton

Barack Obama

Benjamin Netanyahu

The Democratic

Party


U.S. Role in the Middle East

15


Wide Support for U.S. Involvement in the Arab-Israeli Conflict

31

83

4

17

0

20

40

60

80

100

Support Oppose

Strongly Somewhat Strongly Somewhat

Do you support or oppose the United States playing an active role in helping the parties to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict?

16


31

83

4

17

0

20

40

60

80

100

Support Oppose


25

67

7

33

0

20

40

60

80

100

Support Oppose

With Both the Israelis and the Arabs

15

44

15

56

0

20

40

60

80

100

Support Oppose

With Israel

Singling Out Israel Causes Major Decline in Support for US Playing Active Role

Would you support or oppose the United States playing an active role in helping the parties to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict if it meant the United States publicly stating its disagreements…

17

+34 -12


Support for U.S. Role that Proposes Peace Plan

21

70

9

30

0

20

40

60

80

100

Support Oppose


Would you support or oppose the United States playing an active role in helping the parties to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict if it meant the United States putting forth a peace plan that proposes borders and security arrangements between Israelis and Palestinians?

18


Majority Support Comprehensive Peace Agreement

13

57

16

43

0

20

40

60

80

100

Support Oppose


As you may know, on a few occasions during the past 10 years, Israeli, Palestinian, and American negotiators came close to reaching a final status peace agreement but ultimately fell short. The details of that agreement include:

19

•  A demilitarized Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza

•  Internationally recognized borders based on the borders that existed in 1967, with mutually agreed land swaps that allow for most Jewish settlers in the West Bank to be inside Israel while the Palestinians get comparable land areas in return

•  Palestinian neighborhoods in Jerusalem become part of the new Palestinian state while Israel retains control of Jewish neighborhoods and the Western Wall in Jerusalem

•  International forces to monitor the new Palestinian state and border crossings

•  Financial compensation for Palestinian refugees while allowing some refugees to return to Israel if they meet specific family reunification criteria and the Israeli government approves


United Nations

20


25

67

14

33

0

20

40

60

80

Important Not Important

Very Somewhat Not at All Somewhat

UN Seen as Important, but not Doing a Good Job

21

Thinking about the United Nations, how good of a job do you think it does in

promoting international peace and security, developing friendly relations among

nations, and promoting social progress, better living standards, and human rights?

4

28 22

72

0

20

40

60

80

Excellent/Good Job Fair/Poor Job

Excellent Good Just Fair Poor

+34

Thinking about the United Nations, how important of a role do you think it plays in

promoting international peace and security, developing friendly relations among

nations, and promoting social progress, better living standards, and human rights?

-44


Mixed Views on the United Nations Overall; Majority See UN Treating Israel Unfairly

22

Thinking about Israel and the United Nations, overall do you think the United Nations treats Israel fairly or unfairly?

6

43

25

57

0

20

40

60

80

Fairly Unfairly

Very Somewhat Very Somewhat

37

-40

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

United Nations Favorability

Favorable Unfavorable

-3 -14


Attitudes toward US Vote on Palestinian Statehood

34

47

18

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Vote For Vote Against Undecided

As you may know, Palestinian leaders have said that they will ask the United Nations this September to recognize an independent Palestinian state. If such a vote takes place, do you think the United States should vote for or against recognizing an independent Palestinian state?

23


41

31

39

51

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Under 40 40 and Over

Vote For Vote Against

UN and Palestinian Statehood: Major Differences by Age

24

Do you think the United States should vote for or against recognizing an independent

Palestinian state?

+3

Thinking about Israel and the United Nations, overall do you think the United Nations treats Israel fairly or unfairly?

+10

55

38 45

62

0

20

40

60

80

Under 40 40 and Over

Fairly Unfairly

-24 -20


J Street and the Jewish Community

25


Debate over who Belongs in the Jewish Tent: Organizations that Criticize Israeli Policy

79

21

0

20

40

60

80

100

Should Allow Should Not Allow

Do you think Jewish community organizations such as local Jewish Federations and JCCs should allow or not allow Jewish organizations that publicly criticize some Israeli government policies to participate in events sponsored by Jewish community organizations?

26

+58


Debate over who Belongs in the Jewish Tent: Arguments for and Against J Street

77

23

0

20

40

60

80

100


As you may know, there is a Jewish organization called J Street which calls itself the political home for pro-Israel, pro-peace Americans.

J Street supports Israel and its right to defend itself, and believes that it is acceptable to criticize some Israeli government policies, such as expansion of Jewish settlement in the West Bank.

Opponents of J Street say that an organization which criticizes Israeli policy undermines Israeli security, and that just calling itself pro-Israel does not make J Street pro-Israel.

Do you think Jewish community organizations such as local Jewish Federations and JCCs should allow or not allow J Street to participate in events sponsored by Jewish community organizations?

27

+54


Debate over who Belongs in the Jewish Tent: Consistent Results by Synagogue Membership

As you may know, there is a Jewish organization called J Street which calls itself the political home for pro-Israel, pro-peace Americans.

J Street supports Israel and its right to defend itself, and believes that it is acceptable to criticize some Israeli government policies, such as expansion of Jewish settlement in the West Bank.

Opponents of J Street say that an organization which criticizes Israeli policy undermines Israeli security, and that just calling itself pro-Israel does not make J Street pro-Israel.

Do you think Jewish community organizations such as local Jewish Federations and JCCs should allow or not allow J Street to participate in events sponsored by Jewish community organizations?

28

74 79

26 21

0

20

40

60

80

100

Belong to a Synagogue

Do Not Belong to a Synagogue



Flotilla Debate

29


Freedom Rides vs. Security Debate

22 78

-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80

Allow the flotilla to reach Gaza Prevent the flotilla from reaching Gaza

As you may know, there have been flotillas organized to disrupt Israel's blockade of the Gaza port and bring different materials to Palestinians living in Gaza. Do you think Israel should allow the flotilla to reach Gaza or do you think Israel should prevent the flotilla from reaching Gaza?

30

The Israeli government says its blockade of Gaza is legal and justified by security concerns, primarily stopping Hamas from smuggling

rockets and weapons into Gaza from Iran. It says the flotilla must be stopped, and that the boats'

food, medicine and other aid will be delivered to Gaza if it is first brought to an Israeli port for

security inspection.

The flotilla supporters say their work is the modern-day equivalent of the Freedom Rides in the South in the 1960s, exposing the injustice and suffering imposed by Israel on Palestinians living in Gaza. They say that Israel's blockade is illegal and that only international pressure like these flotillas will force Israel to improve life for ordinary Palestinians in Gaza.

1901 L Street NW, Suite 300, Washington, DC, 20036 www.gbastrategies.com 202.621.1411

national survey of american jews - amazon s3...gba strategies – national survey of american jews...

Documents