national unified operational prediction capability review
DESCRIPTION
National Unified Operational Prediction Capability Review Committee for Operational Processing Centers. Fred Toepfer & Dave McCarren 16-17 November 2010. NUOPC. National Unified Operational Prediction Capability. 1. Purpose of Briefing. Provide NUOPC status update to COPC - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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National Unified Operational Prediction Capability
ReviewCommittee for Operational Processing Centers
National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC
Fred Toepfer & Dave McCarren
16-17 November 2010
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Purpose of Briefing
• Provide NUOPC status update to COPC
• Review some key items prior to ESG presentation
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National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC
Outline
• Recent Accomplishments– IOC-1 implementation status– Common Model Architecture– R&D Workshop
• Near Term Priorities• DAPE Annex• Post-processing plan
– Course of Action recommendations• Common Metrics
– Draft for presentation to ESG– Discuss Agency Implementation Plans
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IOC-1 Update
• IOC-1 Implementation
– Scheduled on track for Q2 FY2011
– TOC Infrastructure upgrade completed in July
– FNMOC members integrated end of October
– Transition to operations began with scheduled completion on January 11, 2011
• IOC-1 Rollout – Lead TBD
• ESG desired OFCM Lead
– Terminology
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CMA Accomplishments 2010
• NUOPC Architecture Documents • Content Standards Committee - reviewing report
findings and passing tasks to ESMF Core Team for implementation
• ESMF release 5.1 to include NUOPC Compliance Checker and Compatibility Checker
• NOGAPS programmed into alignment with ESMF• NEMS implementation of ESMF adopted for NOAA
– Ongoing alignment with ESMF/NUOPC interoperability standards
• Proposed single column model development will be instrumental in identifying additional coupling/interoperability issues
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IOC-1 Product Terminology • Necessary as Roll Out strategy for public, Tri-
Agency use, journals, funding agencies• The CMA Committee should recommend
standard terminology for NEMS and the NUOPC Architecture (“Layer”)
• The CMA Committee should recommend standard terminology for NAEFS and NUOPC ensemble
• The ESG should approve for Tri-Agency use
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R&D Workshop
• Research and Development Workshop was held 16-18 Aug
• Workshop Objectives
– Review NUOPC progress
– Review Agency operational needs and identify common needs
– Review ongoing ensemble research
– Propose prioritized research and development agenda to meet common needs
• Prioritized R&D list to be presented to ESG
• Workshop summary submitted to Bulletin of AMS
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Near Term (FY11-12) Actions• Implement the National Unified Ensemble Forecast System
– NOAA/Navy partnership to improve probabilistic forecasts
– Common Metrics to measure performance
• NUOPC Common Model Architecture for Research transition to Operations
– NUOPC Interoperability Layer into the Earth System Modeling Framework
– Compliance Checker
– Compatibility Checker
• National R&D Agenda for Global NWP
– Socialize to R&D Agencies
– Presentations at AGU and AMS
• Earth System Prediction Capability - Initiative
– Grow partnership to other agencies, NASA, DOE, etc.
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DAPE Annex
• Use current Data Acquisition, Processing, and Exchange (DAPE) MOA– Recommend Annex that deals with joint multi-
model ensemble operations
– Draft Annex revised; reviewing with COPC
– Will be discussed at a later session
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Post Processing Plan
• Post processing needs further discussion– Technical issues: QC of raw model outputs,
bias correction, sophisticated calibration
– Development of standard probability distributions of model parameters, joint probability products, other user products
– Operations Concept: Who, What, When, Where, and How
• Will coordinate and recommend a path forward to ESG, potentially incorporate into a second annex to the DAPE MOA for ESG approval
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Post Processing Plan• Recommendation for IOC-1
– NOAA provides raw and bias corrected fields• Recommendation for IOC-2
– NOAA provides raw and bias corrected fields
– AFWA does primary post-processing for DoD mission products
– AFWA maintains Tri-Agency post-processing tool kit
– Post-processing coordinated by COPC JAG(s) (or whatever UEO Committee we recommend-must be same as other slide)
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Common Metrics
•Technical metrics considerations–Need a controlled comparison (i.e. model vs model)
–TTP Metrics subcommittee drafted initial proposal – sent to centers and liaisons
–Common verification requires:»Common climatology (i.e., for anom. corr., skill scores)
»Common analysis and/or common set of observations
»Parameters of interest
»Common test cases
•Request status of each agency’s implementation plan
•Request regular status reporting
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Common Metrics TableParameter Thresholds Statistics Regions Ground Truth Fcst Hour Interval Comments
500 mb HGT N/AAnomaly Correlation, RMSE/Bias Ensemble Mean, Spread, CRPS
20N-20S,20N-80N,20S-80S,Northern Hemisphere, Southern Hemisphere, CONUS
UKMO, Observations (After IOC)
12hrNCEP provides gridded climatology
10 Meter Winds >20,35,50kts
Brier Score, CRPS, RMSE/Bias Ensemble Mean, Spread, Conditional Metrics (Foreacast RMSE > 35kts/50kts)
20N-20S,20N-80N,20S-80S,Northern Hemisphere, Southern Hemisphere, CONUS
UKMO, Observations (After IOC)
12hr
24hr Accumulated Precipitation
>.25,.5,1,2" Brier Score, CRPS
20N-20S,20N-80N,20S-80S,Northern Hemisphere, Southern Hemisphere, CONUS
Observations 12hr
700mb Dew Point N/ARMSE/Bias Ensemble Mean, Spread, CRPS
20N-20S,20N-80N,20S-80S,Northern Hemisphere, Southern Hemisphere, CONUS
Observations (After IOC)
12hr
2 Meter Temperature
N/A RMSE/Bias Ensemble Mean, Spread, CRPS
20N-20S,20N-80N,20S-80S,Northern Hemisphere, Southern Hemisphere, CONUS
UKMO, Observations (After IOC)
12hr
Significant Wave Height
>12,18,24ftRMSE/Bias Ensemble Mean, Spread, CRPS
20N-20S,20N-80N,20S-80S,Northern Hemisphere, Southern Hemisphere
Observations 12hr
250mb Wind Speed N/ARMSE/Bias Ensemble Mean, Spread, CRPS
20N-20S,20N-80N,20S-80S,Northern Hemisphere, Southern Hemisphere, CONUS
UKMO, Observations (After IOC)
12hr
Total Cloud Cover (percent)
N/ARMSE/Bias Ensemble Mean, Spread, CRPS
Northern Hemisphere, Southern Hemisphere
Hemispheric World Wide Merged Cloud Analysis (WWMCA)
12hrAFWA provides WWMCA
Hurricane Tracks N/A Spread, Mean Track Error As Required Best TrackBest Track Interval
Verified after the fact once best track is available
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Ensemble Management beyond IOC-1
• Future issues involve ensemble members, post-processing, upgrades
• Potential options:– COPC set up specific JAG– COPC distribute tasks over existing
JAGs– Reconstitute the NUOPC UEO
Committee under the ESG