national weather association annual meeting richard w. spinrad, ph.d. assistant administrator noaa...
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National Weather Association Annual Meeting
Richard W. Spinrad, Ph.D.Assistant Administrator
NOAA Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric ResearchOctober 18, 2006
Atmospheric Research
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Observing Systems Hurricanes
Observing Systems Hurricanes
Stepped-Frequency Microwave Radiometer
Airborne Doppler RadarWP-3D & G-IV
NOAA Research developed radar that will provide unprecedented observations of the three-dimensional structure of the hurricane vortex
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Observing Systems Unmanned Aircraft Systems Observing Systems
Unmanned Aircraft Systems Status:• Several tests conducted in 2005-06
Next Steps:• Continue UAS tests• Continue interagency collaborative
efforts• Continue to develop UAS capability
with Alaska officials
Broad Range of Platforms Types: High, Medium or Low
AltitudeSizes: Few lbs to size of 737Ranges: 1mile to 14,000 miles Endurance: 1 hour to >30 hoursAltitude: 100 ft to 65,000ft
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Initial Global Ocean Observing System for Climate
System 56% complete. Designed to meet climate
requirements but also supports:
Weather prediction Global and coastal ocean
prediction Marine hazards warning Transportation Marine environment and
ecosystem monitoring Naval applications Homeland security
Objectives are well defined with performance measures.
Well coordinated nationally and internationally – the ocean baseline of Global Earth Observing System of Systems (GEOSS).
IOOS Tide gauge stations IOOS Drifting Buoys IOOS Tropical Moored Buoys IOOS Argo Profiling Floats IOOS Ships of Opportunity IOOS Ocean Reference
Stations IOOS Ocean Carbon Networks
IOOS Arctic Observing System Dedicated Ship Support Data & Assimilation
Subsystems Management and Product
Delivery Satellites (managed outside of
IOOS)
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ModelingWRF-based Rapid Refresh
ModelingWRF-based Rapid Refresh
Status: • Rapid Refresh uses GSI analysis and WRF forecast model • Development and testing ongoing at NOAA ESRL
Next Steps: • Run Rapid Refresh in real-time test cycle at ESRL in 2007 • Pre-implementation testing at NCEP in 2008 • NCEP operational implementation in 2008-09
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New Global Model GFDL CM2.1
New Global Model GFDL CM2.1
Innovative features -
1. State of the art model physics
2. Software for modern supercomputers
3. Widespread public dissemination of model output
Lead to –
1. Outstanding ability to simulate past climate, increasing our confidence in future projections
2. Wide recognition of world class status of GFDL/NOAA models
Observed global temperature
Modeled global temperature
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2006 model improvements:
1. Explicit cloud microphysics
2. Improved surface fluxes
3. Assimilation of observed Loop Current structure
Lead to –
1. Accelerated multi-year trend of reduced intensity error
2. Intensity predictions in 2006 that had lowest errors of all guidance
Modeling Upgraded GFDL Hurricane Model
Modeling Upgraded GFDL Hurricane Model
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HWRFHWRF
DENNISDENNIS
Modeling Hurricane WRF
Modeling Hurricane WRF
Next Steps:• Provide high-quality atmosphere and ocean observations for assimilation into and evaluation of HWRF• Explore technologies to obtain and use new observing systems (e.g., GEOSS, IFEX)• Test and evaluate new techniques to represent key physical processes• Develop new techniques to evaluate/diagnose the HWRF fields• Accelerate transition of promising technologies to operations (e.g., JHT)
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GFDL model upgrades:1. GFDL has continued to
upgrade its hurricane prediction system every hurricane season.
2. Major upgrades made in both resolution and physics.
Lead to –
Lowest track error of any other model guidance over the past 4 years in both the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific at each forecast time level.
Modeling GFDL Hurricane Model Skill
Modeling GFDL Hurricane Model Skill
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Information SystemsAWIPS Evolution
Information SystemsAWIPS Evolution
Status:
• Efforts underway to develop new modeling and graphics products
• Some testing just completed, report pending
Potential Benefit:
• Operational flexibility
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TestbedsTestbeds
• USWRP Joint Hurricane Testbed
• Hydrometeorology Testbed
• Development Test Center – WRF Model
• High-Impact Weather Testbed
• Climate Testbed
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Joint Hurricane Testbed
Joint Hurricane Testbed
Status:• 6th year, 4th round of two-year competitive awards• 15 of first 24 projects accepted for operations • Result -- measurable improvement in track and intensity forecasts at landfall through improved decision support capabilities and operational hurricane modeling
Next Steps: • Continue funding 2-year competitive awards • Increased emphasis on improved intensity forecasting • Once significant improvements are documented, emphasize improved forecasting of rainfall
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HMT WEST - Cool Season
HMT EAST – All Season, including Hurricane LandfallHMT CENTRAL
– Warm Season
Status:• Recommended by USWRP• Implementing regionally• HMT-prototype 2003-04• HMT-West 2005-09• Addresses Sacramento flood risk
Next Steps:• Provide state-of-the-art QPEto evaluate hydrologic models• Winter QPF in mountains• HMT-East (2009-12)• HMT-Central (2012-16)
Hydrometeorological Testbed
Hydrometeorological Testbed
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Current status: • Established process for testing and evaluating new NWP science and technologies and retrospective testing of operational model systems• Built strong working relationship between the research and operational communities
Next step: • Complete interagency Terms of Reference needed to establish stable resources for maintaining and supporting WRF Reference Code to the community
Testbeds Developmental Test Center
Testbeds Developmental Test Center
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Current Status:• Operated jointly each Spring• 50-60 government, academic, & private sector researchers & forecasters participate
Next Steps:• Continue expansion of scope to include warning-scale (0-1 hour) problems by including Weather Forecast Office participation• Assess operational benefits of new systems (PAR, Polarimetric radar, 3D Lightning Mapping Array, CASA Radars)• Help develop and assess probabilistic warning products
Hazardous Weather Testbed
Hazardous Weather Testbed
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Climate Test Bed
Climate Climate Test BedTest Bed
Climate Community
Climate Community
Research &Development
Research &Development
NOAA Climate
ForecastOperations
NOAA Climate
ForecastOperations
Mission:Mission: to accelerate the transition of research and development into improved NOAA operational climate forecasts, products, and applications.
Accelerate transition of climate research to improved NOAA climate forecast products and services
Status: • Consolidation of multi method
Seasonal Forecasts at CPC • Experimental Drought Early
Warning System for NIDIS• Drought Early Warning
System (DEWS) for NIDIS
Next Steps:• FY07: budget includes 1-2 additional competitive projects; new and improved official climate forecast products
Climate TestbedClimate Testbed
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Forecast for the Future
The goal is to access and provide the right information, in
the right format, at the right time, to the right people, to make
the right decisions.
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Importance of Research to Operations Hurricane Modeling Improvement
Importance of Research to Operations Hurricane Modeling Improvement
GFDL-URI Coupled Hurricane-Ocean ModelFactors the Effect of the Ocean on Hurricanes
Reduction in 3-5 day hurricane track and intensity forecast errors
One of the most accurate tropical cyclone forecast systems in use today
Contributed to reduction of official track forecast errors by 1/3 over last 15 years
Represents 16 years of hurricane model development
Continually Improved
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1-km altitude
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1-km
• Doppler analyses from 1st W-E leg during Katrina landfall showing asymmetry in horizontal and vertical wind distribution
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Inflow and shallow wind max to West
Outflow and deep wind max to East
Observing SystemsObserving SystemsHurricanes
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TestbedsTestbeds
Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation
NOAA, NASA, DODMission
Accelerate and improve the quantitative use of research and operational satellite data in weather and climate prediction models• Current generation data• Prepare for next-generation (NPOESS, METOP, research) instruments• Supports applied research• Partners - University, Government and Commercial Labs