national weather service kansas city / pleasant hill weather forecast office integrated warning team...
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National Weather Service Kansas City / Pleasant Hill Weather
Forecast Office Integrated Warning Team (IWT)
Workshop
Using the Weather and Society * Integrated
Studies (WAS*IS) Approach January 21, 2009
Eve Gruntfest and Julie Demuth
WAS* ISWAS* ISweather & society * integrated studies
www.sip.ucar.edu/wasis/
CULTURE CHANGE
Sponsored by the NCAR Societal Impacts Program
WAS* ISWAS* ISweather & society * integrated studies
www.sip.ucar.edu/wasis/
CULTURE CHANGE
Sponsored by the NCAR Societal Impacts Program
WAS*IS addresses two persistent issues
– I don’t know how, &…– I don’t know anyone else
who does this kind of work”
“I want to do work that integrates meteorology & societal impacts BUT…
WAS*IS VisionTo change the weather enterprise by
comprehensively & sustainably integrating social science into meteorological research
& practice
WAS*IS Mission
1. Build an interdisciplinary community of practitioners, researchers, & stakeholders — from the grassroots up — who are dedicated to the integration of meteorology & social science
Capacity building -- creating a community for lifelong collaboration & support!
Capacity building -- creating a community for lifelong collaboration & support!
2. Provide opportunities to learn & examine ideas, methods, & examples related to integrated weather-society work• Tools – GIS, surveys, qualitative methods• Concepts – problem definition, speaking
the same language, end-to-end-to-end process
• Topics – risk perception, vulnerability, resilience
WAS*IS Mission
The WAS*IS Adventure
Began as 1 workshop … now 6 (so far)! Original 2-part Boulder WAS*IS (Nov 2005, Mar 2006) Condensed 3-day Norman WAS*IS (April 2006) Summer WAS*IS (July 2006) Australia WAS*IS (end of January 2007) Summer WAS * IS (July 2007) Summer WAS * IS (July 2008) Summer WAS*IS (August 2009) tentative
As of January 2009, 171 WAS*ISers!
WAS * IS workshops – --not like other workshops--dedicated to culture change! Now till Friday afternoon:We take into account regional conditions around Kansas City and
We build on the WAS * IS momentum to improve communication and effectiveness across the numerous sectors engaged in issuing warnings
10
WAS * IS work is underway
Some examples we will learn more about in next two days
Challenge ourselves to apply new practices • in OUR region
• appropriate for OUR weather
Dan Nietfeld – Scientific Operations Officer – Omaha –Specific questions forecasters can consider social impacts in forecasts
Who will be impacted?
Are people awake/sleeping/ driving/coaching, getting married?
What has happened up to this point?• Have there already been fatalities?• What are the TV stations saying?
Have earlier storms been “missed” ?
Dan Nietfeld Also teaching popular classes at University of Nebraska Lincoln
Public – private – nonprofit collaborations to improve all elements of weather enterprise
with emphases onBetter communication
More geographic specificity
Reduced confusion
Partnership opportunities
Kevin Barjenbruch-National WeatherService Salt LakeCity
MelissaTuttle Carr
Gina Eosco
Pursuing Ph.D. in risk communication at Oklahoma
Five years experience working at American Meteorological Society
Master’s work at Cornell University Interviewing forecasters & government officials
about their interpretations, objectives, & desired behavioral responses to the cone of uncertainty, a hurricane track graphic tool
Rebecca Morss - National Center for Atmospheric Research Newly elected member of the Council of the American Meteorological Society
L E A D E R in Problem definition Social science research agendas end- to-end-to-end processWorking with students at Texas A & M following Hurricane Rita
Local government
agencies (e.g., floodplain management)
End-to-End-to-End Researchers & Decision-Makers
Professional associations
Private engineering consultants
Broadcasters
Public (e.g., homeowners)
Private businesses
Local government
elected officials
State & regional governments
Federal government
Researchers
Morss, R. E., 2005 Problem definition in atmospheric science public policy: The example of observing system design for weather prediction Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 86 181-191
Emphasis on social relevance rather than product performance --Provide what public needs/wants
Lindsey Barnes - New conceptual model of false alarms & close calls
Barnes L, Gruntfest E, Hayden M, Schultz D, Benight C (2007) False Alarms & Close Calls: A Conceptual Model of Warning Accuracy. Weather & Forecasting 22, 1140-1147
Other National Weather Service activities
Successful workshop in Springfield, Missouri (December 2008) with similar mission Including social science on post-event survey
assessment teams
Weaving social science into many training classes
Evaluating new socially- relevant metrics – not just performance based
Other WAS*IS accomplishmentsTEACHING - New course offerings in Weather & Society
U North Carolina Asheville U of Oklahoma U of Colorado Denver
RESEARCH•Grants •Publications•Presentations at professional meetings
NEW JOBSWAYS OF DOING BUSINESS STARTING TO CHANGE DIALOGUES WITHIN & BETWEEN AGENCIES – sensitivity to societal impacts
Chris Godfrey Sam Ng
Weather information requirements of each user community are highly specialized
How can we change our forecasts & warnings to account for temporal & geographic specificity needs?
Understanding human behavior is difficult- perhaps comparable to bringing forecasting to its 2009 levels
Task of predicting human behavior may be as tough as predicting weather
Acknowledging the need is major first step One social scientist per agency is a start but he/she won’t change culture
National Weather ServicePrivate forecasters
Local Communities
The move from WAS to IS occurs when stovepipes are not the model Bring social science & policy into programs & research efforts in sustainable ways
Meteorologists, Hydrologists
UniversitiesInternational Agencies
Research Centers
Urban Drainage Districts
Broadcast meteorologists
Greg Mortenson’s Three Cups of Tea analogy One Man's Mission to Promote Peace . . . One School at a Time (Best selling book about building
schools in Afghanistan & Pakistan) 1st cup- stranger 2nd cup- honored guest 3rd cup- you’re part of family… takes years With 171 official WAS*ISers & hundreds of other like-
minded hard-workers
Social science & policy are having our 2nd cup of tea with meteorology
We’re not family yet – but we’re no longer strangers
THE CHANGE IS UNDERWAY -Our WAS * IS inspired workshop
takes into account regional conditions around Kansas City and
builds on the momentum to improve communication and effectiveness across the numerous sectors engaged in issuing warnings
Road ahead will not be s m o o t h – but journey is well worth making!
Thanks for your participation – Let’s get to work!