National Weather Service

National Weather Service

Local Forecast Office Operations

Jeff CupoBarry Goldsmith

Chad OmittMike Seaman

What we will cover…

• National Weather Service Organization• Local Forecast Office Responsibilities• Forecast Process• Severe Weather Operations• Tropical Cyclone Operations

NWS OrganizationDepartment of Commerce (DOC)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

National Weather Service (NWS)

122 Local Weather Forecast Offices13 River Forecast Centers

Center Weather Service Units

National Hurricane CenterStorm Prediction Center

Hydrologic Prediction CenterAviation Weather CenterClimate Prediction Center4 other national centers

122 NWS Field Offices

NWS Mission - Why we are here…

• For the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy

• NWS provides weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States

• NWS data and products form a national information database and infrastructure which can be used by other governmental agencies, the private sector, the public, and the global community.

What we do…

Routine Forecasts

Long Fuse Watches and Warnings

Convective Watches and Warnings

Hydro-meteorological Observations and Climate Information

Public

Aviation

Fire Weather

Marine

Winter Weather

High Wind

Frost/Freeze

Excessive Heat

Tropical Cyclone

Tornado

Severe Thunderstorm

Flash Flood

Special Marine

River observations, forecasts and warnings

Climate Summaries

Records

Maintain a continuous weather watch, producing forecasts and warnings 24/7

The Forecast Process

• Observations• Analysis• Diagnosis• Prognosis• Communication

Forecasters analyze / interpret varied datasets to develop a 4-dimensional picture of the atmosphere:

Forecast FunnelPlanetary Scale (Long-Wave Pattern)

Synoptic Scale (cyclones/fronts)

Mesoscale (thunderstorms)

Local Effects (terrain)

Local Forecast

Surface Observations

Satellite Observations

Radar Observations Objective Analysis

Upper Air Observations

NWS forecasters analyze the atmosphere using AWIPS Workstations

Observe, Analyze, and DiagnoseThe Current State of the Atmosphere

Prognosis - Numerical Weather Prediction

(computer models)

• Environmental Modeling Center– Global and Mesoscale

Modeling– Ensembles

• European and Canadian Models

• Local modeling– Small domain– Develops local expertise

Planetary/Global Models Regional/Mesoscale Models

Local Models

National Digital Forecast Database

• Profound change in way forecasts are prepared

• Forecasters interact with grids using a variety of editing tools

• Legacy text products, along with graphical products generated from 2.5 x 2.5 km grids

• Graphical Elements available– Temperature– Probability of Precipitation– Weather (Type)– Dewpoint Temperature– Wind Speed and Direction– Sky Cover– Snow Amount– Relative Humidity– Apparent Temperature– Wave Height. . . And more!

Communication…Getting the Word Out

• Internet– http://weather.gov

• Media Broadcasts

• NOAA Weather Radio– 11 Transmitters in Forecast Area– Continuous coverage– Immediate Broadcast of Warnings– Tailored Broadcasts– Relay other significant products

• AMBER Alerts• Civil Emergency Messages• Chemical Spills

• NWS Family of Services

Severe Weather Operations

Severe Weather Operations

• Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Watches issued from Storm Prediction Center

• Local forecast office responsible for warnings– Focus on 0-6 hour time frame– Additional Staffing and duties

• Warning Forecaster• Communications• Mesoscale Analyst• Routine Forecast Duties

Severe Weather Operations

EnvironmentRadar Data Ground Truth

Warning Forecasters weigh three primary factors when Making the decision whether to issue a warning on a storm:

Convective Warnings- Polygon Concept

- Traditionally, short fused warnings were issued for entire counties, even if only a small part of a county was threatened.

- Polygons allow us to focus on the specific threat. This allows EM’s to focus their resources where it really counts, and reducing the impact to those not really threatened.

AT 627 PM… STORM SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND VERY DANGEROUS TORNADO NEAR DEARBORN …MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. LIVE VIDEO AND RADAR DATA SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL TORNADO MAY BE OCCLUDING NORTH NORTHEASTINTO BUCHANAN COUNTY…AND BECOME RAIN WRAPPED AND MAY ROPE OUT. A NEW TORNADO MAY IMMINENTLY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF DEARBORN WITH THIS STORM.

Tropical Cyclone Prediction: From National…

Observations from Space:

•Satellites and Measurements

•Geostationary (far left)

•Polar Orbiting

•Precipitation Estimator (right)

•Scatterometer (bottom)

Observations from Air and Sea:

•Aircraft and Sondes

•NOAA P-3 “Hurricane Hunter” (top left)

•Gulfstream G-IV Surveillance (bottom left)

•Dropsondes (top right)

•Dropsonde tracking (bottom right)

Tropical Cyclone Prediction: From National…

Many of these observations are often included in dynamical models, which are assessed, along with other data (real-time satellite imagery and observations) by Hurricane Specialists.

Global Forecast System (GFS) “Spaghetti” plot of all models, Hurricane Katrina

Models and Evaluation

Tropical Cyclone Prediction: From National…

Forecasting

Deterministic Winds w/Error Cone

Probabilistic Winds

Hurricane Specialists at NHC Combine Models, observations, prior forecasts, and subjective interpretation (gut feelings) to produce a forecast track.

Error and probabilistic information are derived from long-term statistical samples.

Tropical Cyclone Prediction: To Local!

The WFO and its local partners (media affiliates, Emergency Management) refine NHC forecasts to a much smaller domain in order to directly serve counties, cities, and neighborhoods!

County Warning Area, New Orleans WFO

Hurrevac® Local tracking software

Tropical Cyclone Surge Model (SLOSH)

NHC passes baton to the WFO….

Tropical Cyclone Prediction: To Local!

WFO Provides Value Added Information to Local Customers!

WFO Melbourne, FL, Operations During Wilma, 2005

Tropical Cyclone Prediction: To Local!

Examples of Value Added Information

...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

By Text (Hurricane Local Statements, Inland Cyclone Warnings)…

Tropical Cyclone Prediction: To Local!

Examples of Value Added Information

…and with Graphics (Tropical Cyclone Local Hazards)

Graphical Wind Hazard, Florida Suncoast Pop-Up Text Description, Extreme Wind