nato afghan metrics 2008

8/8/2019 Nato Afghan Metrics 2008

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UNCLASS // REL USA ISAF NATO

Metrics Brief2007 - 2008


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Security Summary 2008

DATA DERIVED FROM NATO/JOIIS DATABASE

Baluch

iArea

NWFP

FATA 2

1

Major INSURGENTLines of Operation

Kinetic Event Density

*Range based on UNAMA and ISAF/NATO data collection.

Increasing

2008

24% Afghans perceive improvement,

19% perceive worsening (Sep 08 poll)

70% of kinetic events continue to occurin 10% of the districts

33% increase in Kinetic Events

IED events up 27%....single largest

cause of casualties

119% more attacks on GIRoA5% less Suicide Attacks50% more Kidnappings/Assassinations

ISAF/OEF Deaths: up 35%Civilian Deaths: up 40% - 46%*

Building Host Nation Capacity:ANA: 13 more Kandak BNs formed

46 Kandaks capable of BN Ops

ANP: 52 districts undergoing FDD13 of 20 Civil Order Police BNsfielded


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0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Jan

07

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

08

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

ISAF Finds ANSF Finds Turn-Ins Detonations

IED Events (Found and Exploded)

27% increase in IED events /29%increase in casualties

24% increase in discoveries* (by volume)2007 / 2008 discoveries* = 35% of all IED events

21%increase in civilian turn-ins

*discoveries = IED finds + turn-ins


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0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Garmsir 08Garmsir 07

Kinetic Events Analysis

Change In Kinetic Event Density1Jan - 28 Dec 07 and 08

Decreased events in select areas

Kabul: City 47%; Province 15%- ANSF deaths down 61%

Garmsir: 43%

Kabul* 07 Kabul* 08


Increasing

33% more kinetic events in 08 - same areas Increased event levels due to:

More ISAF / ANSF operating in more areasIncreased asymmetric methods

Continued sanctuary in PAK

2007

2008

*Density range / calibration differs from provinceto district in order to show differences


Increasing


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Civilian Deaths*

Up46% according to ISAF (JOIIS/NATO) databaseUp40% according to UNAMA database INS cause 80% of civilian casualties**

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Jan

07

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

08

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

ISAF Database UNAMA Database

*does not include criminal events** according to ISAF reports / investigations


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0

25

50

75

100

125

150

ANA ANP ISAF

Military Deaths*

Overall Trend up 12% ISAF/OEF: up 35% ANA: up 16% ANP: up 9%

ANP - over 60% of total since Jan 2007

*Attributed to Big 8


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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Dec-06

Jan-07

Feb-07

Mar

-07

Apr-0

7

May

-07

Jun-07

Jul-07

Aug-07

Sep-07

Oct-07

Nov-07

Dec-07

Jan-08

Feb-08

Mar

-08

Apr-0

8

May

-08

Jun-08

Jul-08

Aug-08

Sep-08

Oct-08

Nov-08

Dec-08

ANA Size and Capability

ANA Increasingly Conducting and Leading Operations (62% of total) ANA Air Corps have over tripled monthly troop and cargo capacity since Feb 08

Feb 08: 3,000 passengers / 10 tons of cargoNov 08: 10,000 passengers / 50 tons of cargo

CM1 Level Description

CM 1 BN Level Ops, IF2 Enables

CM 2 BN Level Ops with IF SptCM 3 Co Level Ops with IF Spt

CM 4 Unit Formed, No Capability

Dec 08:62% CM1/2

Dec 07:44% CM1/2

Dec 06:30% CM1/2

1CM = Capability Milestone Rating2IF = International Forces


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Health

Major issues related to healthcare assessment arise from the lack of a basic acceptable standardof healthcare. Many Afghans deem simple items such as vaccination as healthcare.

Source: MRA, ANDP 6, July 2008

Uruzgon not sampled due to extremely poorsecurity & high riskPopulation approx. 300k; 1% of Afghanistan

% with access to a clinic or Hospital

56%

75%

62%

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Periphery

Center

Overall


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Education

Access* to schools for both girls and boys varies across the country and is tightly linked tosecurity. Degree of access to girls schools is also an ethno-geographic factor.

Source: ANDP 6, July 2008

Uruzgon not sampled due to extremely

poor security & high riskPopulation approx. 300k; 1% of theAf hanistans o ulation


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Ring Road & International Links (Dec 08)

Source: USAID 30 Nov 08

Kandahar

Kabul

Herat

Jalalabad

4

6

12

Spin Boldak

5

7

Pul-i-khumri

Doshi Bazarak

12

10

4

55

14

10

CompletedTo be complete by Mar 09 (benchmark)To be complete by Mar 10To be complete after Mar 10Unknown

75% of RING Road and 44% of

International Links Completed

6471.4 75

0

20

40

60

80

100

Oct 07 Jul 08 Oct-08

154 kilometers constructed in 2008

nato afghan metrics 2008

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