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NATO/ASI
RISK AND RELIABILITY IN WATER RESOURCES & ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING
May 18-28, 1991 Porto Carras, Greece
ORGANIZING COMMITTEE
Jacques GANOULIS
ASI Director
Hydraulics & Environmental
Engineering, School of
Civil Engineering, Aristotle
University of Thessaloniki
54006 Thessaloniki, GREECE
Lucien DUCKSTEIN Systems & Industrial Eng. Dept.
University of Arizona
Tucson, AZ 85721
.!J....M..
Francisco Nunes CORREIA
Laboratorio Nacional de
Engenharia Civil
Av. Brasil, 101, P.1799 LlSBOA
PORTUGAL
Bernard BOBEE Carrefour John Molson, INRS-Eau
2800, rue Einstein, bureau 105
QUEBEC, (Quebec), G1 X 4N8
CANADA
INVITED LECTURERS
Istvan BOGARDI
Department of Civil Engineering
University of Nebraska-Lincoln
W 358 Nebraska-Lincoln
Lincoln, NebJaska 68588-0531
.!J....M..
Yacov Y. HAIMES
Center for Risk Management of
Eng. Systems, D111 Thornton Hall,
University of Virginia,
Charlottesville, VA 22903
!.!.SA
Louis DE BACKER
Unite de Genie Rural,
Place Croix du Sud 2, Ba 2,
B-1348 Louvain-La-Neuve
BELGIUM
John A. DRACUP Univ. of California, Los Angeles
(UCLA), Civil Eng. Dept.
4532 Boelter Hall, CA 90024-1593
Los Angeles,
.!J....M..
Knut L. SEIP Center for Industrial Research
P.O. Box. 124 Blindern,
0314 Oslo 3,
NORWAY
Erich PLATE Institut fur Hydrologie &
Wasserwirtschaft
Univ. Karlsruhe (TH)
Kaiserstrasse 12
D-7500 Karlsruhe 1
GERMANY
Ahmet SAMSUNLU Istanbul Technical University
Environmental Engineering Dept.
80626 Maslak-Istanbul
TURKEY Fax: (1) 1766587
J. P. GASTELLU-ETCHEGORRY Centre d' Etude Spatiale des
Rayonnements (CESR), B.P. 4346,
31029 TOULOUSE CEDEX
FRANCE
George TSAKIRIS Lab. of Rural Technology
National Technical Univ. of Athens
Iroon Polytechniou 9
GR-15773, Athens
GREECE Fax./Tel.: 7774178
526
Eric PARENT
ENG REF
Applied Maths Dept.
19, Avenue du Maine
75732 PARIS CEDEX 15
FRANCE
Jacques BERNIER Lab. National d'Hydraulique
6, quai Watier, B.P. 49,
78401 CHATOU CEDEX
FRANCE
Bernard CAUSSADE Inst. de Mecanique des Fluides
Avenue Camille Soula
31400-TOULOUSE
FRANCE
Paul PILON Env. Canada, Inland Waters Direct.
Water Resources Branch,
8-th Floor, Place Vincent Massey,
Ottawa, Ontario, KIA OH3
CANADA
Eugene Z. ST AKHIV US. Army Corps of Engineers
Institute for Water Resources
Casey Building, Fort. Belvoir,
Virginia 22060-5586
.!..l..S..A.
527
PARTICIPANTS Nathalie FANIEL
Rue d' Andenne 85A
B-1 060, BRUXELLES
Universite du Bruxelles
BELGIUM
Maria TOUBEKTSI
Faculte Polytechnique de Mons
rue de Houdain 9, 7000 MONS
BELGIQUE
Claude THIRRIOT ENSEEIHT
2 rue Charles Camichel
31071 TOULOUSE CEOEX
FRANCE
Marcus HOEFKEN Cauerstrasse 4
0-8520 ERLANGEN
GERMANY
Holger MUSTER Inst. for Hydrology & Water
Resources, Univ. of Karlsruhe
0-7500 Karlsruhe 1
GERMANY
Bruno MERZ Institut fur Hydrologie &
Wasserwirtschaft
University of Karlsruhe
Kaiserstr. 12
0-7500 Karlsruhe/GERMANY
Mr.Peter Funder RASMUSSEN
Inst. of Hydrodynamics and
HydraulicEngineering,Technical
University of Oenmark
Building 115-0K-2800 Lyngby
OENMARK
Marie Georges TOURNOUD
Laboratoire Hydr.et Modelisation
USTL Place E.Bataillon
34095 MONTPELLIER Cedex 5
FRANCE
Pascal BREIL CEMAGREF Oiv.Hydrologie-Hydraulique
3 bis, quai Chauveau
69336 LYON CEOEX 09
FRANCE
Franz BISCHOF LSTM-ERLANGEN
Cauerstrasse 4
0-8520 ERLANGEN
GERMANY
Marcus DISSE (IHW) Univ. Karlsruhe
Kaiserstrasse 12, Postfach 69 80
0-7500 Karlsruhe 1
GERMANY
Constantin XANTHOPOULOS Inst. fur Siedlungswasserwirt
schaft
University of Karlsruhe
Am Fasanengarten
0-7500 Karlsruhe 1/GERMANY
Mario MAIOLO
Via Gaetano Salve mini 16
87100 COSENZA
ITALIA
Joseph CORREA
Ecole Polytechnique, Genie
Civil-Hydraulique, C.P. 6079,
succ. A, Montreal (Quebec)
H3C 3A7
CANADA
Van-Thanh-Van NGUYEN
McGill University
Dept. de Genie Civil
817 Rue Sherbrooke Quest,
Montreal, Quebec, H3A 2K6,
CANADA
Luc PERREAULT
INRS-Eau, Carrefour Molson
2800, Rue Einstein, suite 105
Quebec, G 1 V 4C7, Sainte-Foy
CANADA
Ilrene ABI-ZEID
INRS-Eau, Carrefour Molson
2800, Rue Einstein, suite 105
Quebec, G 1 V 4C7, Sainte-Foy
CANADA
Hans-Olaf PFANNKUCH
Dept. of Geology & Geophysics
University of Minnesota
310 Pillsbury Dr. SE
Minneapolis, MN. 55455-0219
lLSA.
528
Leonard LYE Memorial Univ. of Newfoundland
St. John's, Newfoundland,
A1B 3X5
CANADA
Raafat SAADE
85 Rue ste-Catherine Quest,
Montreal, Quebec, H2X 3P4
CANADA
Rene ROY
Service Previsons
75 Ouest Rene Levesque
90 Complexe Desjardins
Montreal, Quebec
CAN A D A H2Z 1 A4
Cristiane MARCOUX
Les Consultants BPR
4655 Boul. Hamel
Quebec, GIP 2J7
CANADA
Amvrossios BAGTZOGLOU
Department of Civil Engineering
University of California, Irvine
CA 92717 U.S.A.
Mohamed DAHAB
University of Nebraska-Lincoln
Dept. of Civil Engineering
W348 Nebraska Hall
Lincoln, NE 68588-0531
!LS.A.
Scott MILLER Dept.of Civil & Environmental Eng.
Michigan Technology University
1400 Townsend Drive
Houghton, MI 49931
!.LSA
Yehouda ENZEL Univ. of Arizona
Dept. of Geosciences
Tuscon, Arizona 85721
.!.LS.A.
Lisa ELY University of Arizona
Tucson, Arizona 85721
1LS.A
Nabil SHAFIKE Hydr. & Water Resources
Eng. Dept., Tucson,
AZ.85722
!.LSA
Donald KENDALL Loyola Marymount Univ.
Loyola Blvd. at West 80th Str.
Los Angeles, CA 90045
1LS.A
David BELLUCK
520 Lafayette Road, St. Paul
Minnesota 55155
!.LSA
529
Richard HEGGEN Civil Eng., Univ. of New Mexico
Albuquerque, NM. 87131,
!.LSA
Radwan AL-MUBARAK 2522 Hydrosystems Laboratory
205 N. Mathews Ave.
Urbana, IL 61801,
!.LSA
Bijaya P. SHRESTHA Systems & Ind. Eng. Dept.,
Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, 85721
!.LSA
Aimee BELLA Department of Systems & Ind.
Eng., Univ. of Arizona,
Tucson, AZ. 85721
llS.A..
Pam EMCH Univ.of California, Los Angeles
Civil Eng. Dept.
4532 Boelter Hall
Los Angeles, CA 90024-1593
llS.A..
James LAMBERT Dept. of Civil Eng.
Thornton Hall, Univ. of Virginia
Charlottesville, VA 22901
.!.LS.A.
Pericles LATINOPOULOS Hydraulics & Environmental
Engineering, School of
Civil Engineering, Aristotle
University of Thessaloniki
54006 Thessaloniki, GREECE
Yannis MYLOPOULOS Hydraulics & Environmental
Engineering, School of
Civil Engineering, Aristotle
University of Thessaloniki
54006 Thessaloniki, GREECE
Anastasios ST AMOU National Technical Univ.of Athens
lroon Polytechniou 5
GR-15773, Athens
GREECE
G. MANOS DEI
Athens
GREECE
Kalliopie ALEXOPOULOU Ministry of Environment Town
Planning & Public Work
9, Fanarioton Street
10178 Athens GREECE
Kalliopi TZAVLAKI
Municipal Enterprice for Water
and Sewage of Iraklion
1, Vironos Street
712 02 Irakrion-Kreta
GREECE
530
Marios VAFIADIS Hydraulics & Environmental
Engineering, School of
Civil Engineering, Aristotle
University of Thessaloniki
54006 Thessaloniki, GREECE
Nikos THEODOSIOU Hydraulics & Environmental
Engineering, School of
Civil Engineering, Aristotle
University of Thessaloniki
54006 Thessaloniki, GREECE
Christos STEFANIDIS Eng. of Hydraulique
Chalkidikis 6
Kozani-50100
GREECE
Panagiota ANASTASSOPOULOU Ministry of Environment Town
Planning and Public Work
9, Fanarioton Street
10178 Athens GREECE
Eleni ALEXOPOULOU A. Zacharopoulos A.S.
Tositsa Street
10683 Athens
GREECE
Eftihia PAPALEXIOU
Municipal Enterprice for Water
and Sewage of Kos
38, Grigoriou E' Street
85300 Kos
GREECE
531
Demetris ARGIROPOULOS
Ministry of the Environment of Greece
Division of Environmental Planning
11251 Athens
GREECE
Anna MANTA
Municipal Enterprice for Water and
Sewage of Nafplion
2, 25th Martiou Street
211 00 Nafplion, GREECE
Sophia GEROGIANNAKI
48, Prasinou Lofou Str.
N. Iraklion
14121 Athens, GREECE
Maria-Luisa BARATA DE TOVAR
Projecto de Gestao Integrada
dos Recursos Hidricos do Norte
CCRN-PORTO-4100
PORTUGAL
K. F. TURKMAN
DEIOC, Faculdade de Ciencias
Bloco C/2-Campo Grande,
1700 Lisboa
PORTUGAL Fax: (3511 )678308
Maria-Manuela RAMOS DA SILVA
Inst. Superior Tecnico
Dept. of Civil Eng.
Av. Rovisco Pais
1096 LlSBOA CODEX
PORTUGAL
lIias TRAKAKIS
Municipal Enterprice for Water and
Sewage of Sparta
39, Kleobrotou Street
23100 Sparta, GREECE
S. TZOVARIDIS
Ministry of Public Works
Athens
GREECE
Joao Paulo LOBO-FERREIRA
Lab. Nacional de Engenharia Civil
Av. do Brasil, 101
P-1799 LlSBOA CODEX
PORTUGAL
Jose Gabriel DE MENESES
Dep. Ciencias Eng. do Ambiente
Quinta da Torre
28525 Monte Caparica, BRT.
PORTUGAL
Ant. Alex. TRIGO TEIXEIRA
Inst. Superior Tecnico
Department of Civil Eng.
Av. Rovisco Pais
1096 LlSBOA CODEX
PORTUGAL
Pedro Cunha SERRA Lab. Nacional de Eng. Civil
Av. Brasil 101,
1799 LlSBOA CODEX
PORTUGAL
Maria Jose AMORIM Inst. Superior Tecnico
Dept. of Civil Eng.
Av. Rovisco Pais
1096 LlSBOA CODEX
PORTUGAL
Estela Goncalves PEREIRA
Environmental Systems Analysis
Group from UNINOVA
Inst. for the Development of New
Tecnologies-Quinta da Torre
2825 Monte da Caparica
PORTUGAL
Bilsen BELER BAYKAL
532
Instanbul Tech. Univ. Env. Eng.Dept.
80626 Maslak-Istanbul
TURKEY
Atil BULU
Technical Univ. of Istanbul
Civil Eng. Faculty, Dept. of
Hydraulics, 80626, Ayazaga,
Istanbul, TURKEY
Dogan AL TINBILEK
Chairman, Civil Eng. Dept.,
Middle East Technical Univ.,
06531 Ankara-TURKEY
Joao ROCHA Lab. Nacional de Eng. Civil
Av. Brasil 101,
1799 LlSBOA CODEX
PORTUGAL
Nilgun HARMANCIOGLU Dokuz Eylul University
Faculty of Eng. & Architecture
Dept. of Civil Engineering
35100 Bornova-Izmir
TURKEY FAX: (51) 187864
Necdet ALPASLAN Dokuz Eylul University
Faculty of Eng. & Architecture
Env. Eng. Dept.
35100 Bornova-Izmir
TURKEY Fax: (51) 187864
Gulseven UBAY
Istanbul Tech. Univ. Env. Eng.Dept.
80626, Maslak-Istanbul
TURKEY
Orhan OZBAY Ataturk Universty Eng. Faculty
Head of the Envirionmental
Engineering Dept., 25240 Erzurum
TURKEY (Fax: (011) 17140
Ismail. DURANYILDIZ
Istanbul Teknik Univ.
Insaat Fakultesi, Hidrolik ABD.
Ayazaga 80626 Istanbul-TURKEY
Ferhat TURKMAN
Dokuz Eylul Univ., Faculty of
Eng. & Architecture, Dept. of
Civil Ehgineering,
Bornova 351 OO-IZMIRITURKEY
533
Turkay BARAN
Civil Eng. Dept., Faculty of Eng. &
Architecture, Dokuz Eylul Univ.
Bornova 35100, IZMIRITURKEY
Fax: (51) 187864
NON - NATO COUNTRIES
Alfir AKHMETOV
IMMS, Taymirskaya, 74
Inst.of Multiphase Meckanics
Systems of USSR Academy
62500 Tyumen GSP
!..!.S.S.B
Ilika LAMBOVA
Dept. of Mathematics &
Informatics Univ. of Sofia
5, Anton Ivanov Avenue
BULGARIA
Konstantin FYODOROV
IMMS, USSR Academy of Science
Taymirskaya, 74
62500 Tyumen GSP
!..!.S.S.B
accidental spill 156 activated sludge 411 advection 168, 191 allocation system 438 alternative 255 anaerobic conditions 500 annual
average flow 438 flood damages 321 floods 226 peak floods 103 precipitation 147 sediment yield 145
anoxic conditions 409 tank 409
aquifer parameter 71, 257 autocorrelation 178, 224 autoreg ressive
model 441 process 220
availability 367 available disposal sites 288 average annual damage 332
Bayes design 374 methods 204 risk 373 theorem 102
Bayesian analysis 203 procedure 101,363 reliability 381
Bellman principle 118 Brownian motion 192 beach erosion 313 benefit-cost analysis 315 benefits 317 bioaccumulation 293 biodegradation 495 biological treatment 501 birds 514 Bruun rule 313
capacity 5 chlorophyll concentration 73
INDEX
climate change 311 variability 435
climatic change 102 coastal
flooding 324 pollution 167,450 protection 311
coliforms 182, 489 compror:nise programming 363 composite
distance 265 programming 255, 275, 301, 284 risk index 287
conceptual models 3, 219 conditional simulation 195 270 confidence intervals 21 207 conflicting ,
criteria 363 objectives 404
consequences of risk 3 failure 5 incidents 12
control theory 115, 417 correlation lengths 198 covariance function 194 convective diffusion 172 credibility
interval 102 level 11
damage function 348 models 507
decay processes 167 deficit area 46 decision
analysis 284 coefficient 293 dose 292 making 15, 255 models 162 process 421 rule 363, 516
denitrification 407 diffusion 191
dispersion 152,184 coastal 60 coefficient 184
distribution gamma 23, 103, 149, 150 Gumbel 92 log-Pearson 3, 22 normal 149, 175 log normal 103, 149 Pearson type 3, 22
dose-response assessment 291 function 6, 348
drilling sites 511 dissolved oxygen 171, 493 drought 43, 97
analyses 435 definition 444 duration 46, 444 intensity 46,52 hydro-meteorological 43 parameters 442 periods 449 regional 46, 53 resilience 51 risk assessment 50 severity 443 vulnerability 51
dynamic model 364 programming 15, 121, 346, 386 system 115, 365
E-coli 182 ecological
coastal processes 168 indicators 15 loss matrix 235
economic analysis 288 evaluation 315 loss 5,234
economical damages 512 engineering
risk 3, 56, 167 reliability 3
environmental damages 512 objectives 503 engineering 3 risk 485 quality standards 167
536
erosion models 140 rate 148
estimation of flood 39 estimator
maximum likelihood 92 estuary 459 exceedance
levels 454 probability 91, 345, 371. 452
expected annual flood damages 321 losses 234 property loss 345
explicit algorithms 172 exposure 4,5
assessment 291 extention principle 249 eutrophication 485 evapotranspiration 69
failure 4, 5, 155 fecal coliforms 183 figures of merit 161,365 finite
differences 172 elements 468
flood 21,97,106 control 337 estimation 39 estimator 91,106 forecasting 338 frequency 91,106 inundation 313 loss reduction 337 losses 234 maximum annual 92 maximum expected 110 protection 231 warning 337
forecast 231 fuzzy
elements 231 estimate 397 extension principle 238 logic 11 numbers 5, 403 regression 13, 291 reliability 237 set theory 9 sets 3,5,9,287,394
gamma distribution 21 function 25
grade of service 366 groundwater
contamination 63, 256 model 272 recharge 63 risk assessment 66 salinisation 63 simulation 256
Galerkin method 468 Gaussian law 175 geostatistical simulation 25~ Gumbel distribution 92
habitat 299 hazard
identification 3, 11 index 297
health risk 5, 394 hierarchical system 337 hydrological
data 21 extremes 97 modelling 220
hydraulic conductivity 196, i266 hydrodynamic model 172, ~64
image processing 73 enhancement 82
incident 3 period 368
injection wells 273 interstitial water 294 interval analysis 9, 10 irrigation demand 419 Ito stochastic equation 193.
jOint probability 146
kriging 195, 269
lacustrine deposits 100 lagrangian algorithms 187! land use management 3111
537
likelihood function 27, 102 estimate 27 maximum 32,108
load 4, 363 log-normal distribution 227 log-Pearson type 3 distribution 22 losses 317 loss function 6 low streamflow 435 Iysimeter 69
mass transport 272 maintenance costs 234 management options 277,403 Markov chain 421 marine environment 462 mission reliability 369 mixed fuzzy-probabilistic 231 membership function 10, 11, 238 modelling uncertainties 218 moments method 28 Monte-Carlo
analyses 189 simulation 321
multiattribute analysis 516 multicriterion
decision making 284, 403 design 371 dynamic programming 128 risk 371
multi objective dynamic programming 337 optimization 344
multiple criteria decision 280
nitrate contamination 393 control 393 risk 395
nitrification 408 non-point
land-based sources 167 water pollution 137
non-statonarity 442 numerical
modelling 459, 463 simulation 180
nutrients 497
oceanography 73 oil
drilling 503 pollution 503 spill 507
operation problems 15, 346 optimal
control 115 policy 426
optimization multiobjective 344 sequential 125
outfalls 484
paleofloods 99, 106 parameter
estimation 37 uncertainty 91, 258
Pareto set 129 peak flows 102 Pearson
type 3 distribution 22 differential equation 24
partial duration series 91 particle method 189 perception of concequences 14 performance indices 12, 125 planning problems 14 pollution
coastal 167 control 483 in rivers 137
pollutant loading 231 loads 487 transport 149
porous media 189 posterior probability 205 prior probability 206 probabilistic
methodology 200 methods 5 modelling 137 simulation 189
probability density function 6 distribution 8 of exceedance 22, 91 of failure 162, 372 of flooding 347 posterior 205 prior 206
538
protection costs 234
quality of service 363 problems 3, 231
rainfall 67 duration 141 functions 145
random currents 179 variable 5, 219 walk 183, 189
reaction 191 regional drought 43 reliability
analysiS 3, 155, 231, 255 , 363 remedial action 273 remediation schemes 255 remote sensing 73, 459 repairability 363 resilience 51, 132 reservoir
management 386 optimization 425
resistance 5, 231, 363 return period 21, 29, 209 risk 3, 53, 125, 161, 167, 255
analysis 4,15,53,97,105317 assessment 4, 11, 50, 179 carcinogenic 296 characterization 296 consequences 3 management 3, 14, 125, 300, 393 of failure 21
risk of pollution 185 perception 5 quantification 3
risk-cost analysis 283 aspects 311 trade-off 285
river pollution 137 robustness 203, 279 runoff model 220
safety probability 240 salinity 484 sampling uncertainties 204
satellite data processi ng 81 platform 73 sensor 73
sea level rise 311 sediment runoff 145 sensitivity analysis 306 sewage
disposal 187 treatment 407
sewerage system 483 sensitivity analysis 10, 519 settling tank 409 sequential optimization 415 shore protection 311 shortages 456 skewness coefficient 36 sludge 407 soil erosion 148, 460 space imaging 461 standard deviation 231 standards 155,184 statistical analysis 8 stochastic
approach 3 differential equation 122 dynamic programming 386 formulation 190 modelling 4, 415 process 48 simulation 3 variables 7
storm surges 209, 328 frequency 311
suspended matter 76, 459
539
system analysis 115, 415
time series 15 trade-off analysis 396 tree-rings 98, 435 toxicity 157, 297 transmissivity 266 transport model 466 treatment plants 407 turning bands 194, 269
uncertainties 218 uncertainty analysis 3, 7, 324 utility
analysis 505 function 505
vulnerability 51, 126, 363, 369
wastewater discharges 180 water
allocation 439 availability 456 interstitial 294 models 148 quality 3, 231, 423, 483 resources 3, 283, 435 supply 44, 363
Weibull distribution 212 model 217
wells 503
NATO ASI Series G .
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Vol. 3: In Vitro Effects of Minerjil Dusts. Edited by E. G. Beck and J. Bignon. 548 pages. 1985.
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Vol. 7:
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The Role of Freshwater Outflow in Coastal Marine Ecosystems. Edited by S. Skreslet. 453 pages. 1986.
Stratospheric Ozone R~duction, Solar Ultraviolet Radiation and Plant Life. Edited by R. C. Worrest ahd M. M. Caldwell. 374 pages. 1986.
Strategies and Advanced Techniques for Marine Pollution Studies: Mediterranean Sea. Edited by C.S. Giam and H.J.-M. Dou. 475 pages. 1986.
Urban Runoff Pollution., Edited by H. C. Torno, J. ~arsalek, and M. Desbordes. 893 pages. 1986.
Pest Control: Operations and Systems Analysis in Fruit Fly Management. Edited by M. Mangel, J. R. Carey, and R. E. Plant. 465 pages. 1986.
Mediterranean Marine J\.vifauna: Population Studies and Conservation. Edited by MEDMARAVIS and X. Monbailliu. 535 pages. 1986.
Taxonomy of Porifera from the N.E. Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea. Edited by J. Vacelet and N. Boury-Esnault. 332 pages. 1987.
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Vol. 22. Evolutionary Biogeography of the Marine Algae of the North Atlantic. Ed ited by D. J. Garbary and G. R. South. 439 pages. 1990.
Vol. 23. Metal Speciation in the Environment. Edited by J. A. C. Broekaert, $ Gu,<er, and F. Adams. 655 pages 1990.
Vol. 24 Population Biology of Passerine Birds. An Integrated Approach. Edited byJ. Blondel, A. Gosler, J.-D.Lebreton, and R. McCleery. 513 pages. 1990.
Vol. 25. Protozoa and Their Role in Marine Processes. Edited by P C. Reid, C. M. Turley, and P. H. Burkill. 516 pages. 1991.
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