Natural disasters and Natural disasters and their economic effectstheir economic effects

Economic Foundations of Local DevelopmentEconomic Foundations of Local DevelopmentModule 1/f: Development in spite of conflicts and disastersAutumn term 2015/2016.Autumn term 2015/2016.CUB Department of Economic Geography and Futures StudiesCUB Department of Economic Geography and Futures Studies

dr. Jeney Lászlódr. Jeney LászlóSenior lecturerSenior lecturerjeney@elte.hujeney@elte.hu

22

Natural disasters and their Natural disasters and their economic geographic impactseconomic geographic impacts

The world’s a scene of changes, and to be The world’s a scene of changes, and to be Constant, in Nature were inconstancy.Constant, in Nature were inconstancy.

Abraham CowleyAbraham Cowley

Inconstancy (1647)Inconstancy (1647)

33

Natural disastersNatural disasters

EarthquakesEarthquakes VolcanismVolcanism LandslidesLandslides StormsStorms DraughtsDraughts EpidemicsEpidemics

44

Nature as a risky factorNature as a risky factor

Examples for the risks with different degree or the Examples for the risks with different degree or the human populationhuman population

Extent of risk: not only dependent of the natural Extent of risk: not only dependent of the natural processprocess– Smaller: sparsely populated Siberia (even heavy flood)Smaller: sparsely populated Siberia (even heavy flood)– Larger: densely populated city (even mid-size flood)Larger: densely populated city (even mid-size flood)

Heavy storm:Heavy storm:– In harvest period: dangerousIn harvest period: dangerous– In wintertime on a depopulated Great PlainIn wintertime on a depopulated Great Plain

Definition of risk means:Definition of risk means:– Not only the natural eventNot only the natural event– Its effectIts effect

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Information and AssesmentInformation and Assesment

Visitors from Scandinavia to southern England are amazed Visitors from Scandinavia to southern England are amazed and amused at the disruptive effects of a heavy snowfalland amused at the disruptive effects of a heavy snowfall

Road traffic may be brought to a halt, schools closed, Road traffic may be brought to a halt, schools closed, telephone services interrupted, railway lines blocked, telephone services interrupted, railway lines blocked, millions of domestic water pipes frozen, and so onmillions of domestic water pipes frozen, and so on

An exactly similar snowfall in Helsinki or Stockholm would An exactly similar snowfall in Helsinki or Stockholm would scarcely merit a newspaper paragraphscarcely merit a newspaper paragraph

The size of the environmental event provides little guide to The size of the environmental event provides little guide to its comparative impactits comparative impact

Exactly the same consideration affects all our measurementsExactly the same consideration affects all our measurements For example, the 18-cm water deficit at Berkeley is a barrier For example, the 18-cm water deficit at Berkeley is a barrier

only if you wish to grow summer crops or irrigate golf greensonly if you wish to grow summer crops or irrigate golf greens The winter blizzards that reduced the cattle herds in the The winter blizzards that reduced the cattle herds in the

Dakotas during the 1870s had no effect on the spring wheat Dakotas during the 1870s had no effect on the spring wheat of the 1890sof the 1890s

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Information and AssesmentInformation and Assesment

Snow represents both a valuable natural resource and a Snow represents both a valuable natural resource and a dangerous natural hazarddangerous natural hazard

On the positive side of the balance sheet we can point to its On the positive side of the balance sheet we can point to its storage role:storage role:

Much of the irrigated agriculture in the western United Much of the irrigated agriculture in the western United States depends on meltwater from the mountain snowfieldsStates depends on meltwater from the mountain snowfields

The number of Americans who ski is now approaching 4 The number of Americans who ski is now approaching 4 million and the value of snow as a recreational resource is million and the value of snow as a recreational resource is rapidly increasingrapidly increasing

It is difficult to asses the negative social and economic It is difficult to asses the negative social and economic impacts of snow and ice but they are considerableimpacts of snow and ice but they are considerable

Average loss on life in the United States alone runs at over Average loss on life in the United States alone runs at over 500 per annum500 per annum

Disruption to transport systems and funds spent to combat Disruption to transport systems and funds spent to combat the hazard may amount $1 billion per annumthe hazard may amount $1 billion per annum

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Losses from natural hazardsLosses from natural hazards

Estimates of losses for selected hazards for the United StatesEstimates of losses for selected hazards for the United StatesAnnual property damage is for the most recent year for which data Annual property damage is for the most recent year for which data are availableare availableFigures for hurricanes, tornadoes, etc. refer to insured losses onlyFigures for hurricanes, tornadoes, etc. refer to insured losses only

selected hazards

average annual loss of

life

period

annual propert

y damage ($ bn)

extremes of heat, cold, insolation

551 1955–1964

–

hurricanes, tornadoes, hail, wind, thunderstorms

304 1915–1964

0.68–1.05

lighting strikes and fire 160 1953–1963

0.10

floods 70 1955–1964

1.00

tidal waves 18 1945–1964

0.009

earthquakes 3 1945–1964

0.015

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Information and AssesmentInformation and Assesment

Later we consider how man evaluates changing and risky Later we consider how man evaluates changing and risky natural environmentsnatural environments

For the moment we should note that physical data about For the moment we should note that physical data about environment are only at first stageenvironment are only at first stage

The most dangerous and unpredictable environments may The most dangerous and unpredictable environments may also be the most attractive: 12 percent of the United States also be the most attractive: 12 percent of the United States population elect to live in areas subject to periodic river population elect to live in areas subject to periodic river floods or sea surgesfloods or sea surges

The fact that flood losses have topped $1 million in recent The fact that flood losses have topped $1 million in recent years must be set against the greater advantages – fertility, years must be set against the greater advantages – fertility, flatness, communicatibility, etc. – that make them so flatness, communicatibility, etc. – that make them so attractiveattractive

But geographers are sufficiently optimistic to hope that But geographers are sufficiently optimistic to hope that environmental knowledge may be a beginning of environmental knowledge may be a beginning of environmental wisdomenvironmental wisdom

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Adjustments to Natural Adjustments to Natural HazardsHazards

Another group of geographers at the University of Chicago Another group of geographers at the University of Chicago has been studying how various groups react to natural has been studying how various groups react to natural hazardshazards

With natural hazards are included all sorts of extreme With natural hazards are included all sorts of extreme geographic events like floods, storms, earthquakes, and geographic events like floods, storms, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions that have a rising toll of lives and volcanic eruptions that have a rising toll of lives and damagedamage

1010

Natural HazardsNatural Hazards

Extreme and irregular events Extreme and irregular events such as periodic famines, such as periodic famines, hurricanes, and earthquakes hurricanes, and earthquakes provoke a wide variety of provoke a wide variety of strategies related to the strategies related to the perception of the group affected perception of the group affected and the magnitude, frequency, and the magnitude, frequency, duration, and spacing of the duration, and spacing of the natural eventnatural event

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Adjustments to Natural Adjustments to Natural HazardsHazards

Among the original Chicago group, Gilbert White and Ian Among the original Chicago group, Gilbert White and Ian Burton have investigated the responses of people living in Burton have investigated the responses of people living in flood-plain areas to threats of floodsflood-plain areas to threats of floods

Human responses and adjustments to the known danger of Human responses and adjustments to the known danger of flooding do not increase consistently as the risk becomes flooding do not increase consistently as the risk becomes greatergreater

Until the environmental stress builds up to the point where Until the environmental stress builds up to the point where the likelihood of damage is regular and recurrent, little or the likelihood of damage is regular and recurrent, little or no adjustment takes placeno adjustment takes place

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Perception of flood hazardPerception of flood hazard

Figure shows the degrees of Figure shows the degrees of hazard perception in hazard perception in 33 US US communities with different communities with different likelihood of floodinglikelihood of flooding

Darlington, Wisconsin, can Darlington, Wisconsin, can expect only one flood in the expect only one flood in the same periodsame period

When the probability of hazard When the probability of hazard recurrence is high, however, the recurrence is high, however, the danger is widely perceived but danger is widely perceived but evaluated in different waysevaluated in different ways

The curve shows the frequency The curve shows the frequency of flood hazard for 496 urban of flood hazard for 496 urban places in the USplaces in the US

Most places for which flood Most places for which flood frequency data were available frequency data were available have 2 or 3 floods each yearhave 2 or 3 floods each year

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Perception of flood hazardPerception of flood hazard

Degree of Degree of adjustment for 3 adjustment for 3 places with 3 places with 3 different different experiences pf experiences pf flooding is flooding is illustratedillustrated

Height of each Height of each columns refer to the columns refer to the number of number of respondents in each respondents in each place who fail to place who fail to perceive a threat perceive a threat weekly or strongly weekly or strongly (2 levels of (2 levels of ‚perceived’), or who ‚perceived’), or who adjust to the hazard adjust to the hazard (‚adapted’)(‚adapted’)

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Adjustments to Natural Adjustments to Natural HazardsHazards

Table lists 4 of the ways in which individuals respond to Table lists 4 of the ways in which individuals respond to uncertain risks of the recurrence of natural disastersuncertain risks of the recurrence of natural disasters

Each response represents an optimistic rationalization for Each response represents an optimistic rationalization for continuing to live in a hazard areacontinuing to live in a hazard area

It is interesting that the range of responses is greater when It is interesting that the range of responses is greater when the probabilities of recurrence are moderatethe probabilities of recurrence are moderate

High-risk and low risk areas tend to be more uniform in High-risk and low risk areas tend to be more uniform in responseresponse

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Human reactions to irregular Human reactions to irregular natural hazardsnatural hazards

1616

Adjustments to Natural Adjustments to Natural HazardsHazards

Studies of drought hazard areas in the Great Plains support Studies of drought hazard areas in the Great Plains support the results of the flood-plain researchthe results of the flood-plain research

Perception of drought risk is directly related to the degree Perception of drought risk is directly related to the degree one is likely to be affected by a potential hazardone is likely to be affected by a potential hazard

That is, wheat farmers are far more aware of the likely That is, wheat farmers are far more aware of the likely incidence of drought than can cattle ranchersincidence of drought than can cattle ranchers

One interaction between the hazard area and its occupants One interaction between the hazard area and its occupants was probed to determine why the resource user, in spite of was probed to determine why the resource user, in spite of previous exposure to the hazard, returns to the hazard-previous exposure to the hazard, returns to the hazard-prone siteprone site

It seems likely that the risks act as filters, attracting settlers It seems likely that the risks act as filters, attracting settlers who have inclination or capability (in personally, finance, who have inclination or capability (in personally, finance, etc.) to cope with the hazard threat but repelling the more etc.) to cope with the hazard threat but repelling the more timid soulstimid souls