NaturalHazards

Integrated Risk Assessment & Scientific Advice

Uncertainty in forecasting and risk assessment

Hydro-meteorological Volcanoes Earthquakes

Storms Floods

Droughts,Wildfires &Heatwaves

Coastal Erosion &Flooding

SubsidenceLandslides Volcanoes Earthquakes Tsunami

Development of physically-based models

Development of physically-based models

Development of physically-based models

Development of physically-based models

Development of physically-

based models

Development of physically-based models

Development of physically-based

models

Development of physically-based models

Experim

ental Studies

Monitoring &

survey

Experim

ental Studies

Monitoring &

survey

Experim

ental Studies

Monitoring &

survey

Experim

ental Studies

Monitoring &

survey

Experim

ental Studies

Monitoring &

survey

Experim

ental Studies

Monitoring &

survey

Experim

ental Studies

Monitoring &

survey

Experim

ental Studies

Monitoring &

survey

Natural Hazard Challenges

Societal needs

Theme drivers 1. Natural hazards and their

consequences need to be forecast effectively.

2. The communication of scientific knowledge and understanding of natural hazards needs to be much improved.

3. Much more emphasis and financial resources need to be put into mitigation strategies.

Theme Priorities 1. Risks that are likely to increase in frequency and scale

2. Where new research will do most to reduce risk

3. Risks with core UK expertise or datasets

Initial Actions

• Fill gaps in current portfolio• Will be small to start with,

but will ramp-up in size• Will be prioritised by SISB

on how they stretch the science

• Are only the initial actions; it is expected that research into ALL challenges will be undertaken over the next 5 years

Framework of Actions

Quantifying

uncertainty in

predictions PG (CS)

Risk mitigation

through targeted

research PDG

Storm risk mitigation PG

Water cycle hazards PG (CS, SUNR)

Ice melt induced sea level rise PDG (CS, ESS)

Analysis and communication of uncertainty and risk

PDG

Analysis and communication of uncertainty and risk

• Develop a framework for the handling of uncertainty, risk and complexity across natural hazard research activities to enable improved uptake and usage of NERC science.

• Improve communication of the distribution, size, uncertainty and complexity of natural hazards to decision-makers.

• Generate common involvement and co-investment of social scientists and key stakeholders throughout scientific programmes.

Quantifying uncertainty in predictions of regional and local climate change  

• Develop, test and disseminate statistical methods to combine observations and models to quantify the total uncertainty in predictions of regional and local climate change, and climate impacts, especially for the next few decades.

• Because of their importance for climate impacts, attention must be given to predictions of changes in extreme events.    

Risk mitigation through targeted research

• Develop a prioritised inventory of observational requirements, datasets and models that are required to minimise casualties and economic loss.

• Develop enhanced hazard and risk forecasting capability.

• Develop probabilistic hazard assessment techniques and, with joint vulnerability assessments, improved risk models.

Case study: Volcanic risk managementWill have generic applicability

Storm Riskmitigation

• Improve the ability to predict hazardous weather associated with mid-latitude cyclonic storms by developing improved representations of the physical processes and their interaction.

• Predict how enhanced greenhouse gas- induced pre-conditioning of the atmosphere will affect the generation and evolution of mid-latitude storms.

• Model vulnerability to storms (arising from precipitation and wind) at catchment/ coastal management unit scale through development of high resolution (regional) models.

Ice-melt inducedSea level rise

• To predict rates of sea level rise based on improved modelling of ice sheet melt processes under a range of climatic scenarios.

• To predict impacts (including coastal flooding, estuarine interactions, groundwater interactions, erosion), and uncertainties, at a range of scales (e.g. a highly urbanised industrial catchment, the UK and international).

• Within LWEC, to establish socio-economic scenarios based on the impacts to enable improved communication and modelling of risk for policy-makers

Water cycle hazards

• Quantify and narrow the uncertainty in predictions for the next few decades of changes in regional precipitation, evaporation, soil moisture, run-off and related water variables that cause floods and droughts.

• Narrow the uncertainty in predictions for the next few decades. 

• Make key results available in a form that decision makers concerned with adaptation and mitigation can readily use.

Future activitiesFurther activities across all natural hazard challenges are being considered; it is expected that these will be developed once opportunities with the ‘Living with Environmental Change’ Programme (LWEC) are clearer and following further consultation with research users and providers.

Questions?