Natural HazardsRisk Mapping in Sweden

ISDR

Barbro Näslund-LandenmarkEcologist, Senior advisor

Swedish Rescue Services AgencyDepartment of emergency prevention

Section for environment, planning and building

Hazard and categories

• Hazard - ”a potentially damaging physical event that maycause loss of life or injury, property damage, social and economic disruption or environmental degradation”. ISDR, Hyogo Framework for Action

• Categories:

Small scale loss event, 1-9 deathsModerate loss event, 10-19Severe catastrophe, > 20Major catastrophe, > 100Devastating catastrophe, > 500Great natural catastrophe, thousands of fatalities, hundreds of thousands are left homeless

Natural hazards

• Hydrometeorologicalwindfloodprecipitationdroughtthunder

• Geologicalearthquakevulcanolandslideerosion

• Biologicalepidemics

No of Great Natural Hazards 1950-2006

Source:Munich Re2006

Natural Hazards and Disaster Events in Sweden

• Windstorms – heavy winter storms - hurricanes• Flash floods and flood inundations• Landslides• Forest fires• Snowstorms

Hurricane”Gudrun”

• 8-9 Jan 2005

• Wind speed up to 35-40 m/s

• 75 million m3 fallen timber

• 20 fatalities (severe)

• Economic losses: Ca 25 billion SEK

Temporary storages of timber

Flash Flood - Fulufjället 1997

Flash Flood - Hagfors 2004

Flood Inundation - Arvika 2000

Completely destroyed

Landslide - Göta river valley Tuve 1977

• Quick Clay soil• Sensitive to

vibrations and reduction in salt content

• 9 fatalities

Landslide - Road E6 in Munkedal 2006

SNOWSTORM

Gävle 1998

• 150 cm snow layer after three days of snowing

• Total interruption of transportation, etc

FOREST FIRES

Boden 2006

• Largest documentedforest fire ever in Sweden

• No rain in July

• 1700 hectares

• Fire fighting duringfour weeks

• ACTUAL RISK of fire = static status+dynamicstatus

• Static: vegetation, topography, biomass, earlier climate etc

• Dynamic: actualweather/prognosis in near time of wind, precipitation, vegetation etc

Swedish forest and grassland fireprognosis system

• Prognosis system at the website of the SRSA, running from april - october

• Menu-system- functions- maps- prognosis- data

• Search function• Links to connecting sites and authorities, e.g. SMHI

European Forest Fire Information System -EFFIS

Municipal Level –Risk management Landuse planning

Regional LevelSupervision Fire and Rescue ServicesReferral for consideration for Land use

planning

National LevelSupervision Civil Protection ActSupervision Environmental Act

Supervision Planning and Building Act

SRSA’s Preventive work towards natural disasters

• General Stability Maps

• General Flood Inundation Maps

• Governmental Subsidies for preventive measurestowards landslides and floodings

• Research and development

• Cooperation – on national and international levels, EU and UN

• Information, Education and Training

• River Coordination groups

• Database Natural Disasters – Lessons Learned

General Stability Maps, within build up areas

• Governmental commission for SRSA since 1986• Areas at risk for landslides, 3 zones with subzonation• Covering Sweden• Basic data for municipality risk assessment

General Flood Inundation Map

• 56 rivers covered

General Flood Inundation Maps

• Areas at risk of floodings are mapped along rivers• Governmental commission for SRSA since 1998• Approx 10% of Swedens rivers will be mapped, priority for

10 000 km, based on identified risks and passed events• 80% are mapped today• Two discharges are calculated

- 100 year flood and - Highest estimated flood according to the guidelines of

Swedish Flood Committe, approx 10 000-year flood• Hydraulic model• Report and GIS-data

General Stability and Flood Inundation Maps

Fields of application

• Basic data for municipality risk assessment

• General landuse planning

• Overall planning of fire & rescue service work

• Detailed survey– permanent preventive measures

• Response action

• Hydraulic model– calculation of currentwaterlevels and discharges for the ongoing event

Protected Area for Ground Water Supplyat risk of flooding

180 km roads at risk of flooding

256

681

767

256

681

Important buildings at risk of flooding i.e. Town hall and ABB Main Office

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~1000 residents in 22 buildingsat risk of flooding

River Coordination Groups

• SRSA commissioned to initiateestablishment of river coordinationgroups within Sweden

• Watershed based

• County Administrative Board task to convene, chair of the group

• Meetings, Seminars and Workshops

• Spring Flood

• SRSA called in when required

• Members; F&R services, landuseplanners, Environmental sector, National Road Administration, National RailroadAdministration, Water RegulationEnterprises, SMHI, etc

Governmental Subsidies

• Municipalities can apply

• 40 MSEK/year, 4 M Euro or 5,7 M $

• 2006: approx 25 municipalities applied, applicationsexceeded 6 times available amount of money

• Commission for SRSA in cooperation with national expert authorities

Permanent mitigation

Permanent mitigation

Permanent mitigationexcavation and erosionshelter

Permanent mitigation – soil nailing

Non permanent mitigation- non permanent barriers in depots

Changes in returnperiod of 100 yearflood, 2071-2100. Applied on rivers

covered with General Flood

Inundation maps

Climate Change and Vulnerability

Karlstad worst casescenario

2071-2100