natural lab: heavy drought in southwest china

8/9/2019 Natural Lab: Heavy Drought in Southwest China

1/51

Ed}rqdi Ida? Gbdx~ Mqcr`g}ne Zcr}gpbz} Jgned

Zce`jdn ^crNBMD) JDDZ

D{qni 8,0) Abnone`


2/51

@bebqdi Nehcqld}nce@bebqdi Nehcqld}nce

Nl{dj}zNl{dj}z

Mnzdz}bq Qbinbh Mnzdz}bq Qbinbh

Dmd{}d}nce z}qd}b`nbzDmd{}d}nce z}qd}b`nbz


3/51

]gb dqbd gn} a~mqcr`g} nejirmbz^reede [qcxnejb)@rn gcr [qcxnejb)@rde`wn [qcxnejb)Zcr}g {dq}z ch Jgce`tne` dem

Znjgrde% Mqcr`g}ecp nz mbxbic{ne`ne}c }gb Zcr}gpbz}ch Grede [qcxnejb

Jgce`tne`

@rn gcr

@rde`wn^reede

Grede

In`g}

Lcmbqd}b

Zbxbqb

Bw}qblb zbxbqb

Mqcr`g} Ib`bem

Znjgrde


4/51

Ec Nembw In`g} Lcmbqd}b Zbxbqb Pcqz}

4 Jce}nercrz md~z pn}gcr} dxdnidaib {qbjn{n}d}ncemrqne` jqc{ `qcpne` zbdzce

4;u1; 14u:; :4u=2 5=2

1[qbjn{n}d}nce

daecqldin}~ '".

4lce}g1lce}gz:lce}gz

,8;u,02,:;u,=;,1;u,:;

,02u,7;,=;u,=2,:;u,:2

,7;u,72,=2u,2;,:2u,=;

9,729,2;9,=;

: Dqnmn}~ nembw 4%;u;%8; ;%8;u;%=; ;%=;u;%1;

;%1;= Daecqldin}~ ch qnxbq mnzjgdq`b '". ,4;u,=; ,=;u,2; ,2;u,8; 9,8;

2 Daecqldin}~ ch qbzbqxcnq pd}bq gcimne` jd{djn}~ '". ,4;u,:; ,:;u,=; ,=;u,2; 9,2;

8 Pd}bq zgcq}d`b ne {dmm~ hnbim '". 2u4; 4;u1; 1;u:; 5:;

0 Pd}bq zgcq}d`b ne qdnehbm dqbdz '". 2u1; 1;u:; :;u=; 5=;

7 Dqbd jcxbqbm pn}g jqc{ ~nbim qbmrj}nce a~ &4;" 2u1; 1;u:; :;u=; 5=;

> Dqbd dhhbj}bm pn}g jqc{ ~nbim qbmrj}nce a~ &:;" :u42 42u12 12u:; 5:2

4;[c{rid}nce zrhhbqbm hqcl

mqnefne` pd}bq zgcq}d`b '".Grlde abne` ;%2u2 2u0%2 0%2u4; 54;

inxbz}cjf 4u2 2u4; 4;u1; 51;

44 Rqade pd}bq zr{{i~ zgcq}d`b '". 2u4; 4;u1; 1;u:; :;

Mqcr`g} Ne}bezn}~ Jidzznhnjd}nce


5/51

Ibzz zecp ne ]nab}{id}bdr dem pdql

pne}bq jdrzbzmqcr`g} ne Znjgrde)Ld _gbe`hbe`)Znjgrde Jinld}b Jbe}bq

Grlde dj}nxn}nbz nemrjbm)zrjg dz mbhcqbz}d}nce){ide}ne` ch Brjdi~{}rz dem

qraabq }qbb pgnjg dazcqarembq,`crem pd}bq

Bi Enec bhhbj} ,Pde` Onezce`)Ide gcr Lb}bcqcic`njdi Nez}n}r}b) JLD

Gn`g ]bl{bqd}rqb)ibzz {qbjn{n}d}nce


6/51

Qbm zcni ) jgdqdj}bqnzbm a~ }njf{qc{bq}~) gn`g djnm {ccq dnq{bqlbdanin}~ dem pbdf pd}bq gcimne`jd{djn}~

Inlbz}ceb ) ldnei~ ne @rnzgcr[qcxnejb) jgdqdj}bqnzbm a~ pbdf pd}bqgcimne` jd{djn}~


7/51

Ldq% 17) 1;4;

Ldq% 14) 1;4;

Ldq% 48) 1;4;

Ldq% 4;) 1;4;

Hba% 17) 1;4;

bw}qblb

Zbxbqb

Lcmbqd}b

In`g}

Ec

Bw}qblb

Zbxbqb

Lcmbqd}b

In`g}

Ec

Ldq% 17) 1;4;Ldq% 14) 1;4;

Ldq% 48) 1;4;

Ldq% 4;) 1;4;

Hba% 17) 1;4;

Ldq% 17) 1;4;

Ldq% 14) 1;4;Ldq% 48) 1;4;

Ldq% 4;) 1;4;

Hba% 17) 1;4;

Bw}qblb

Zbxbqb

Lcmbqd}b

In`g}

Ec

Ldq% 17) 1;4;

Ldq% 14) 1;4;

Ldq% 48) 1;4;

Ldq% 4;) 1;4;

Hba% 17) 1;4;

Bw}qblb

Zbxbqb

Lcmbqd}bIn`g}

Ec

Ldq% 17) 1;4;

Ldq% 14) 1;4;

Ldq% 48) 1;4;

Ldq% 4;) 1;4;

Hba% 17) 1;4;

Bw}qblb

Zbxbqb

Lcmbqd}b

In`g}

Ec


8/51

^reede Mqcr`g} dhhbj}bm {c{rid}nce? &7 lniincez

Hccm zgcq}d`b {c{rid}nce? &0lniincez

Dqbd jcxbqbm? &:1%17 lniincelr ) 70" ch }c}di jqc{ dqbd%Cxbq 4=%24 lniince lr pn}g jqc{~nbim qbmrjbm a~ cxbq 7;"%

Cxbq 4= lniince lr ch bjceclnj}qbbz ch hqrn}) }bd) lcqrzdiad)

qraabq) jchhbb gdz abbe jcxbqbm)djjcre}ne` hcq cxbq 7;" ch }c}didqbd%

Bz}nld}bm iczz ch z{qne`,zrllbq gdqxbz}bm jqc{ ~nbim nzdqcrem 8;"


9/51

@rn gcr

Mqcr`g}dhhbj}bm{c{rid}nce?40%1= lniincez

[c{rid}nce nemqnefne` pd}bqzr{{i~ zgcq}d`b?2%04 lniincez

Jqc{ dqbddhhbj}bm a~mqcr`g}? 77;%=

}gcrzdem gd


10/51

@rde`wn

Mqcr`g} dhhbj}bm{c{rid}nce? 0%71lniincez

[c{rid}nce ne mqnefne`pd}bq zr{{i~ zgcq}d`b?1%4> lniincez

Jqc{ dqbd jcxbqbm a~mqcr`g}? 08:%>7}gcrzdem gd

Jqc{ dqbd dhhbj}bm a~mqcr`g}? =08%;2}gcrzdem gd%

Jqc{ dqbd pn}g ~nbimqbmrjbm a~ 7;"?

:7%>1 }gcrzdem gd%


11/51

Znjgrde

Mqcr`g} dhhbj}bm{c{rid}nce? 7%177lniincez

[c{rid}nce nemqnefne` pd}bqzr{{i~ zgcq}d`b?4%7=> lniincez


12/51


13/51

]gb mqcr`g} mbxbic{ ne}c }gb pbz} ch Grede[qcxnejb) }gb qdnehdii ne }gb hnqz} }pc lce}gzch 1;4; mbjqbdzbm a~ 0="% Hqcl Cj}% 4 }cMbj% :4) 1;;>) }gb {qcxnejndi dxbqd`b

qdnehdii nz 48; ll) 11" ibzz }gde }gd} ne}gb zdlb {bqncm%

Jrqqbe}i~) }gb }c}di pd}bq z}cqd`b ne Grede

[qcxnejb nz 8%4 aniice jranj lb}bqz) :4" ch ecqldi dlcre} ch pd}bq z}cqd`b% 87; zldiiqbzbqxcnqz) 18;;; {cemz dem =2; qnxbqz `c}mqnbm%


14/51


15/51

Ne bw}qblb zn}rd}nce) ceb ch {czznaib c{}ncez nz }cqbicjd}b }gb negdan}de}z ne }gb mqcr`g} gn} dqbdz' Ldqjg :4% Ebpz hqcl Z}d}b Jcrejni) [QJ.

Nh }gbqb nz ec bhhbj}nxb {qbjn{n}d}nce abhcqb }gblnmmib }be md~z ch Ld~) dii pd}bq ne qbzbqxcnqz pniiab rzbm cr} ne ^rede [qcxnejb) ne zrjg jdzb)qbicjd}nce ch negdan}de}z pnii ab }dfbe ne}c

jceznmbqd}nce' Chhnjb ch Z}d}b Hiccm Jce}qci dem Mqcr`g} Qbinbh Gbdmtrdq}bqz) LPQ) [QJ.


16/51

N l { d j

} z

Inxne`

Nemrz}q~

D`qnjri}rqb

Hnzgbq~

Zgn{{ne`

]crqnzl

Hcqbz}q~


17/51

Ldqjg) 1;4;

Ldqjg) 1;;>

Gce`gb Qnxbq) ^reede

4) Nl{dj}z ce Pd}bq Qbzcrqjbz


18/51

4) Nl{dj}z ce Pd}bq Qbzcrqjbz

Ldqjg) 1;4; Ldqjg) 1;;>

Tne`gdn Idfb) Wnde`~re Jcre}~) ^reede


19/51

Hqcl idz} Cj}cabq)}gb }c}di{qbjn{n}d}nce ne^dezgde Jcre}~)^reede) nz 18%1

ll) >;" ibzz }gde}gd} ne }gb zdlb{bqncm) icjdihdqlbqz dqb pdn}ne`hcq }gb pd}bqmbinxbqbm a~ jdq

1) Nl{dj}z ce Inxne`


20/51

Zd{npr xniid`b) Grdwnde Jcre}~) ^reede [qcxnejb) [gc}cbm a~ Gdc}nde

1) Nl{dj}z ce Inxne`


21/51


22/51


23/51

:) Nl{dj}z ce D`qnjri}rqb:) Nl{dj}z ce D`qnjri}rqb

Dz ch Ldqjg 4;)Dz ch Ldqjg 4;)1 lniince1 lniinceinxbz}cjfinxbz}cjf rembqrembqmqnefne` pd}bqmqnefne` pd}bq

zgcq}d`b)zgcq}d`b) 8;"8;"{ide}ne` jcq{z{ide}ne` jcq{zgn} a~ mqcr`g})gn} a~ mqcr`g})}gb }c}di dqbd}gb }c}di dqbdnz dqcremnz dqcrem 4:4:lniincelniince lrlr

@rn gcr@rn gcrDz ch Ldqjg 1;)Dz ch Ldqjg 1;)mqcr`g}mqcr`g}jcxbqbm dqbd ch jcxbqbm dqbd ch jqc{z nzjqc{z nz 2%12%1lniincelniince lrlr ) ch ) ch pgnjg)pgnjg) ;%07;%07lniincelniince lrlr nznzdhhbj}bm a~dhhbj}bm a~mqcr`g}%mqcr`g}%

ZnjgrdeZnjgrdeCxbqCxbq 4;4;lniincezlniincez lrlrdqbd ch jqc{z nzdqbd ch jqc{z nzdhhbj}bm%dhhbj}bm%

@rde`wn@rde`wn =%78 lniince=%78 lniinceinxbz}cjf rembqinxbz}cjf rembqmqnefne` pd}bqmqnefne` pd}bqzgcq}d`b) cxbqzgcq}d`b) cxbq70" {ide}ne`70" {ide}ne`jqc{z nz dhhbj}bm)jqc{z nz dhhbj}bm)}gb }c}di dqbd nz}gb }c}di dqbd nzdqcremdqcrem :; lniince:; lniincelrlr ) }gb bz}nld}bm) }gb bz}nld}bmjqc{ ~nbim pniijqc{ ~nbim pniiqbmrjbm a~qbmrjbm a~ 2;")2;")hnzgbq~ demhnzgbq~ demhcqbz}q~ dhhbj}bmhcqbz}q~ dhhbj}bm}cc) }gb }c}di iczz}cc) }gb }c}di iczznz lcqbnz lcqb 47 lniince47 lniinceQLA rdeQLA rde

^reede^reede


24/51

Enronbgb Qbzbqxcnq)Enronbgb Qbzbqxcnq)Onrice` ]cpezgn{)Onrice` ]cpezgn{)Irc{ne` Jcre}~)Irc{ne` Jcre}~)

^reede [qcxnejb)^reede [qcxnejb)

]gb cxbq ;%=]gb cxbq ;%=lniincelniince lrlr qd{b neqd{b ne}gnz jcre}~ dilcz}}gnz jcre}~ dilcz}jcl{ib}bi~jcl{ib}bi~mbz}qc~bmmbz}qc~bm



25/51

Mdice`}de ]cpezgn{)Mdice`}de ]cpezgn{)[de gngrd)[de gngrd) ZnjgrdeZnjgrde

Hrwne` ]cpezg{)Hrwne` ]cpezg{)Mb~de`)Mb~de`) ZnjgrdeZnjgrde ))



26/51

[ d m m ~

h n bi m

Pg

b d }

P dn } n e `h cq q dn eh di i

P

dn } n e `h cq

q dn eh di i



27/51

Dz gn} a~ mqcr`g}) qnjb cr}{r}nz bw{bj}bm }c qbmrjb a~ 4#:ne Xnb}edl pgnjg nz }gbzbjcem idq`bz} qnjb{qcmrj}nce jcre}q~% @icadihccm {qnjb ld~ nejqbdzb' Deacrem jcezri}ne`)1;4; .6

NLH pdqene`? }gb zgdqb ch `icadi qnjb }qdmb ch ]gdnidemdem Xnb}edl nz cxbq =;") }gbqbmrj}nce ch qnjb ~nbim ld~ abd z{rq ch `icadi hccm {qnjb

Hccm {qnjb nejqbdzb

=) Nl{dj}z ce @icadi Hccm [qnjb=) Nl{dj}z ce @icadi Hccm [qnjb


28/51

[qcmrj}nce

Zldiibe}bq{qnzbpn}g pbdfjd{danin}~

G~mqc [cpbqG~mqc [cpbq

Zcr}gpbz} Jgned

nz }gb ldnepd}bq {cpbq`bebqd}nceqb`nce)>;"pd}bq {cpbq

z}d}nce ne@rde`wn gdz }c`nxb r{ {cpbq`bebqd}nce

Jgblnjdinemrz}q~

Pd}bq dem{cpbqzgcq}d`b jdrzb}gb {qcmrj}ncez}c{ nejgblnjdi

nemrz}q~

=) Nl{dj}z ce Nemrz}q~=) Nl{dj}z ce Nemrz}q~


29/51

Gcq}njri}rqb?7;" ch jr} }ne` hicpbq nz hqcl^reede) 7;" ch hicpbq {ide}d}ncene ^reede gdz abbe dhhbj}bm a~mqcr`g}) ac}g }gb cr}{r} demtrdin}~ ch hicpbqz gdxb qbmrjbm%


30/51

dzabz}cz }nibdzabz}cz }nib {qcmrj}nce){qcmrj}nce)^reede^reede

@b}}ne` pd}bq hcq hdj}cq~)@b}}ne` pd}bq hcq hdj}cq~)^rede^rede

=) Nl{dj}z ce Nemrz}q~=) Nl{dj}z ce Nemrz}q~


31/51

dnq{cq} qrepd~ mdld`bmmrb }c idem zraznmbejbjdrzbm a~ rembq`qcrempd}bq ibxbi mbjqbdzb)

Frelne`) ^reede

Jgdc}ndelbeMcjf) Jgce`tne`

2) Nl{dj}z ce zgn{{ne` dem hdjnin}nbz2) Nl{dj}z ce zgn{{ne` dem hdjnin}nbz


32/51


33/51


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35/51

8) Nl{dj}z ce ]crqnzl8) Nl{dj}z ce ]crqnzl

Zcr}gpbz} Jgned nz hdlcrzhcq n}z abdr}nhri idemzjd{b%


36/51

Grde``rczgrGrde``rczgrPd}bqhdiiPd}bqhdii

1;4;1;4;1;4;1;4;1;4;1;4;1;4;1;4; ,,,,,,,, ;:;:;:;:;:;:;:;: ,,,,,,,, 1414141414141414

1;4;1;4;1;4;1;4;1;4;1;4;1;4;1;4; ,,,,,,,, ;:;:;:;:;:;:;:;: ,,,,,,,, 1=1=1=1=1=1=1=1=

1;4;1;4;1;4;1;4;1;4;1;4;1;4;1;4; ,,,,,,,, ;:;:;:;:;:;:;:;: ,,,,,,,, 1818181818181818


37/51

Mce`ond~r

Qbzbqxcnq)}gb pd}bqzcrqjbz hcqPrine`~rde)_gde`ondonb)}gb hdlcrzed}rqdiidemzjd{bicjd}bm neGrede[qcxnejb


38/51

Inonde`Inonde`

Dz pd}bq ibxbijce}nerbz }cmbjqbdzb) }gbzn`g}zbbne`ibe`}g dice`}gb Inonde`hqcl _gronde`

}c ^de`zgrcgdz abbezgcq}bebm%


39/51

Mdmnbzgrn Pd}bqhdii) Zgnine Jcre}~) ^reede

]gb mnzjgdq`b nzdqcrem 4;" ch ecqldi dlcre}%

Abhcqb mqcr`g}


40/51

Jcre}qnbz ne }gb icpbq qbdjg ch Lbfce` Qnxbqdjjrzbm Jgned jcez}qrj}nce ch mdlz dice` }gbIdejde`onde` Qnxbq) }gb r{{bq qbdjg ch Lbfce`

Qnxbq) ar} dj}rdii~) }gb dqbd ch Lbfce` Qnxbqpd}bqzgbm pn}gne Jgned acremdq~ nz }dfne` r{1:%2" ch }c}di dqbd) }gb qnxbq mnzjgdq`b nz }dfne` r{4:%2") hrq}gbqlcqb) }gb mbxbic{lbe} ch g~mqc{cpbq mcbz ec} dhhbj} }gb mnzjgdq`b% ]gb zbjqb}dq~`bebqdi ch Lbfce` Qnxbq lded`blbe} jclln}}bbd`qbbm pn}g }gd} }gb mqcr`g} nz jdrzbm a~ ibzzqdnehdii dem gn`g }bl{bqd}rqb%

0) Nl{dj}z ce ne}bqed}ncedi qbid}ncezgn{0) Nl{dj}z ce ne}bqed}ncedi qbid}ncezgn{


41/51


42/51

HHcq mqnefne` pd}bqcq mqnefne` pd}bq

4;4;

[dewnde jcre}~) @r gcr)4;;;;; hdqlbqz qb}rqe }c

gclb }c jclad} pn}g mqcr`g}


43/51


44/51

Lnin}dq~ hcqjb ne dj}nce


45/51

LbmndLbmnd


46/51

Mced}nce hqcl dii zcjndiibxbiz%


47/51

Jdxb bw{icqd}nce) Iccfne` hcq mqnefne` pd}bq[

d ri )h q cl H q de

j b )g

bi

{n e ` } c

bw {i cq b

j dx

bh cq

m q n ef n e `p

d } bq

n e @ rn zg

c r


48/51

]bjgentrbz }c nejqbdzb qdnehdii


49/51

Dii lbdzrqbz dmc{}bm dqb ch blbq`bej~qbz{cezb% Ne }gb xnbp ch ice` }bql) hciicpne`

lbdzrqbz zgcrim ab }dfb ne}c jceznmbqd}nce dzdmd{}d}nce z}qd}b`nbz?

Hdjnin}nbz arnimne`

Nezrqdejbz Nlln`qd}nce

Dmd{}d}nce z}qd}b`nbzDmd{}d}nce z}qd}b`nbz


50/51

Ec lcmbi nz ab}}bq }gde }gb ed}rqdi ida%

Dii {gc}cz) {nj}rqbz) nehcqld}nce dqb hqcl ne}bqeb}) {ibdzb mc ec} trc}b$


51/51

]gdef ~cr hcq ~crq d}}be}ncez$

natural lab: heavy drought in southwest china

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