nature-based tourism, outdoor recreation and adaptation to climate change

7/22/2019 NATURE-BASED TOURISM, OUTDOOR RECREATION AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE

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Metsntutkimuslaitos Skogsforskningsinstitutet Finnish Forest Research Institute www.metla.fi

NATURE-BASED TOURISM, OUTDOOR

RECREATION AND ADAPTATION TO

CLIMATE CHANGE

Seminarium om Klimatfrndringar, turism och friluftslivstersund 16.4.2007

Tuija SievnenFinnish Forest Research Institute


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5.3.2008 2

About this presentation

Background

FinAdapt Research Program

Report Nature-based tourism, outdoor recreation andadaption to climate change (Sievnen et al. 2005)

Sub-study of nature based tourism;

Researchers: Arvo Peltonen, Jarkko Saarinen,Kaarina Tervo

Sub-study of outdoor recreation

Researchers: Marjo Neuvonen, Eija Pouta, Tuija

Sievnen

Conclusions and discussion


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Background

Almost all (97 %) of Finns recreate outdoorsduring the year

Participation rates, examples 46 % in skiing activities

47 % in boating

46 % in fishing

40 % make a nature trip during a year

9 trips per year ( 2 median) 25 days (9 median)

5 days in average

distance to destination 300 km


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Background 4,9 million foreign travellers, of which about

participate in outdoor activities (2004)

Nature-based tourism is about one fourth partof the tourism in total

WINTER TOURISM IS GROWING FAST

Employment about 20 000-30 000 man-years

in nature-based tourism (2002)

in Finland, about 1 percent of labour force

in Lapland, 7 % of labour force


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Metsntutkimuslaitos Skogsforskningsinstitutet Finnish Forest Research Institute www.metla.fi

Sub-study 1: NATURE-BASED TOURISM ANDGLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE


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Objectives and Data

(1) the status of nature-based tourism entrepreneurs

knowledge about climate change and its effects onthe enterprises operations,

(2) where the knowledge originates, and

(3) what kind of adaptation strategies entrepreneurs

have

Total 19 interviews were conducted to tourismentrepreneurs in Northern Finland (n=9) and the

Finnish Lake District (n=10)


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Belief in climate change according to location and type of

operation of the enterprise

Northern

Finland

(n=9)

Lake District

(n=10)Region

0

20

40

60

80

100%

yes

nono

opinion

program

service

skiing centre

Type of operation

in Northern Finland

0

20

40

60

80

100

%

yesnono

opinion


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Impacts of predicted climate change as stated by tourism

entrepreneurs

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

longer winters

worse summers

longer spring and autumn

more variability, extreme

weather events

more rain

more snow

milder winters

more tourists to the north

environmental changes

longer summers

shorter winters


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Entrepreneurs assumptions about the impact of climate change on the

tourism industry

Northern Finland(n=9)

Lake District(n=10)

Region

0

20

40

60

80

100%

positive

negative

no impact


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Experiences of climatic variation affecting tourism

operations

More

experiences

in the North

Northern

FinlandLake District

Region

0

20

40

60

80

100%

Has climaticvariability

affectedoperations

yesno


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Adaptation plans

More plans in

the North

Northern

FinlandLake District

Region

0

20

40

60

80

100%

yesno


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Adaptation methods in use to cope with climatic variability in

Northern Finland

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

emphasizing summer

activities

increasing capacity

relocation of operations

product development

substitute activities

careful marketing

snowmaking facilities


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Concluding remarks of sub-study 1 Climate change is a minor threat for the nature-based tourism

industry for next twenty years

Disbelief in climate change and its impacts reduced the numberand forms of adaptation plans

No exact knowledge on possible impacts no efforts inadaptation strategies (worthless and waste of resources)

Belief: Capacity to adapting even at a short notice


14/27Metsntutkimuslaitos Skogsforskningsinstitutet Finnish Forest Research Institute www.metla.fi

Sub-study 2: OUTDOOR RECREATION ANDGLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE


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Objectives of the study

to present scenarios of autonomous adaptation in

outdoor recreation behaviour

to discuss needs and options of adaptation Recreationists

Recreation service provision of public sector


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Method

LVVI data 15-74 years old Finnish population

Connected to weather data survey responses

Models binary logistic regression

left truncated negative binomial regression model


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Process

outdoor

recreationparticipation

Studying present

behaviour, exploring

explaining factors:

socio-economic

background

climate

unknown?

selecting

climatesensitive

activities

applying

scenario

information

in models

participation

scenarios,

Assumption:

no change in

behavior

CLIMATE A2 & B1

AGE, EDUCATION,

URBANIZATION...

CALIBRATED

WITH

DEMOGRAPHIC

CHANGEskiing

snowmobiling

swimming


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Demographic scenario

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

2

2,2

2,4

2000 2020 2050 2080

population,million

4

4,2

4,4

4,6

4,8

5

5,25,4

5,6

population 65+ years population 35-64 years

population 0-34 years Total Finnish population


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Scenarios of cross-country skiing

Cross-country skiing

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

present near term mid-term long term

Par

ticipants,million/year

10

15

20

25

30

35

Partici

pationdays,million/yea

r

participants climate (A2)

participants socio-economic

days climate (A2)days socio-economic


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Downhill skiingDownhill skiing

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7


Participants,million/year

2

3

4

5

6

7

Participationdays,m

illion/year

participants climate change (A2) &

socio economicparticipants climate change (A2, B1)

days climate change & socio

economicdays climate change (A2, B1)


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Scenarios of Snowmobiling

Snowmobiling

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5


Participants,m

illion/year

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Partic

ipationdays

,million/yea

r

participants climate change (A2) & socio-

economicparticipants climate change (B1)

days climate change (A2)

days socio-economic


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Swimming in natural waters

Swimming

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5


Participants,million/year

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Particip

ationdays,

million/year

participants socio-economic

participants climate change (A2)

days socio-economic

days climate change (A2) & socio-economic


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Concluding remarks of sub-study 2

adaptation in recreation participation:

strongest decline in skiing and snowmobiling

increase in swimming

to adapt to climate change

skiers: 1) shift to other activities, 2) travellonger distance to ski, 3 ) use new types of

skies

snowmobilers: shift to other activities


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Concluding remarks of sub-study 2

recreation service providers:

trails on artificial snow

other options for services for alternative

activities


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Conclusions and discussion ski tourism enterprises may get new clients at

first, but on long run the industry may loose

clients as the number of skiers in populationdecline

the time perspective of climate change is too

long for tourism entrepreneurs

Information of climate change needs to be

regionally more specific


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Future research needs

Monitoring recreation and travel behaviour Awareness of climate change by tourists and recreationists,

their perceptions of the future conditions and options ofadaptation (contingent behaviour studies)

Regional differences; the possible transition of touristsand tourism industry to new regions

Economic, social and cultural impacts

Evaluation of potential adaptation mechanisms and strategies,and their economic, social and cultural impacts

Different time perspectives of adaptation in private and publicsector


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Which one is our future ?

THANK YOU !

nature-based tourism, outdoor recreation and adaptation to climate change

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