nature doesn’t yield her secrets easily mark battle (bowdoin college) michael bender (princeton)...
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Nature Doesn’t Yield Her Secrets Easily
Mark Battle (Bowdoin College)
Michael Bender (Princeton)Ralph Keeling (Scripps Institute of
Oceanography) Pieter Tans (NOAA/CMDL)
Jesse Bastide, Carrie Simonds, Blake Sturtevant, Becca Perry
EdFest Rochester 8/7/2004
Funding from: NSF, EPA, NOAA GCRP, BP-Amoco, Bowdoin College
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Organizing Principle:
1 topic superficially
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Organizing Principle:
1 topic superficially
Many topics with vanishing content
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1988-1994: PhD in HEP experiment1994-1997: Post Doc. at URI-GSO (Oceanography)1997-1999: Research Scientist at Princeton (Geosciences)2000 - ? : Asst. Prof. Bowdoin College (Physics)
My tortuous path
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Where does anthropogenic CO2 end up?
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Measurements of O2 and CO2
O2 = Land biota + IndustryCO2 = Land biota + Industry + Ocean
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Measurements of O2 and CO2
real time collections
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The Princeton cooperative flask sampling network
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Ships of opportunity
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Automated sample collection systems
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O2/N2 changes are small
O2/N2 per meg (O2/N2sa – O2/N2st)/(O2/N2st) x106
1 per meg = 0.0001%
1 GtC from FF 3.2 per meg O2/N2
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1991 – 1997Land sink = 1.4 ± 0.8 GtC/yr
Ocean sink = 2.0 ± 0.6 GtC/yr
Battle et al. Science 2000 (2467-2470)
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Measurements of O2 and CO2
real time collections
average land/oceancarbon partition 1991 present
![Page 15: Nature Doesn’t Yield Her Secrets Easily Mark Battle (Bowdoin College) Michael Bender (Princeton) Ralph Keeling (Scripps Institute of Oceanography) Pieter](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d445503460f94a20746/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Measurements of O2 and CO2
O2 = Land biota + IndustryCO2 = Land biota + Industry + Ocean
![Page 16: Nature Doesn’t Yield Her Secrets Easily Mark Battle (Bowdoin College) Michael Bender (Princeton) Ralph Keeling (Scripps Institute of Oceanography) Pieter](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d445503460f94a20746/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Measurements of O2 and CO2
O2 = Land biota + IndustryCO2 = Land biota + Industry + Ocean
![Page 17: Nature Doesn’t Yield Her Secrets Easily Mark Battle (Bowdoin College) Michael Bender (Princeton) Ralph Keeling (Scripps Institute of Oceanography) Pieter](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d445503460f94a20746/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Measurements of O2 and CO2
O2 = Land biota + IndustryCO2 = Land biota + Industry + Ocean
![Page 18: Nature Doesn’t Yield Her Secrets Easily Mark Battle (Bowdoin College) Michael Bender (Princeton) Ralph Keeling (Scripps Institute of Oceanography) Pieter](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56649d445503460f94a20746/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Determining the O2:CO2 stoichiometry for the
land biota
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Measurements of O2 and CO2
real time collections air archives
average land/oceancarbon partition 1991 present
measure land O2:CO2
stoichiometry
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Firn (snowpack) as an air archive
Ice
Surface
Firn ~120m
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Influences of firn air composition
•Overlying atmosphere (Fick’s laws)
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Influences of firn air composition
•Overlying atmosphere (Fick’s laws)
•Selective exclusion at bubble close-off (Knudsen regime)
•Gravitational settling (barometric equation)
•Thermal fractionation (kinetic theory)
•Wind pumping/bulk flow (Bernard convection?)
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The forward problem…
1. Posit an atmospheric history2. Use the history to drive the model forward in time3. Compare model predictions with observations
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The inverse problem…
1. Start with a set of observations2. What atmospheric history led to those data?
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The mechanistic inverse problem…
1. Start with a set of observations2. What atmospheric history led to those data?
Trial history(land sink) +(fossil source)+(exclusion flux)
Battle et al., Nature 1996(231-235)
Land sink:0.4 ± 0.4 GtC/yrfor 1977-1985
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The phenomenological inverse problem…
1. Start with a set of observations2. What atmospheric history led to those data?
Trial historyf t
Montzka et al., Geophys. Res. Lett., In press
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Measurements of O2 and CO2
real time collections air archives
average land/oceancarbon partition 1991 present
average land/oceancarbon partition
19771985
histories of otherspecies
~1900 present
measure land O2:CO2
stoichiometry
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Full circle…
Bowdoin teaching:
Physics of the Environment (Physics 81): Spring '02, ‘05Introductory Physics I (Physics 103): Fall, '02Introductory Physics II (Physics 104): Spring '01, Fall '01E & M Laboratory (Physics 223L): Fall ‘04Statistical Mechanics (Physics 229): Spring '00, '01, '02,
'03, ‘05Acoustics (Physics 250): Fall '00Physical Oceanography (Physics 255): Fall '00, '02Atmospheric Physics (Physics 256): Fall '01, Fall ‘04Physics of Particles and Nuclei (Physics 280): Spring '03
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