naval oceanography naval oceanography: excellence in (tropical) meteorology rear admiral dave titley...
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Naval OceanographyNaval Oceanography
Naval Oceanography: Naval Oceanography: Excellence in (Tropical) MeteorologyExcellence in (Tropical) Meteorology
Rear Admiral Dave Titley
Commander Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command
Presented to62nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference
Charleston, SC
3 March 2008
Naval OceanographyNaval Oceanography 2
Overview:Overview:Communications and CooperationCommunications and Cooperation
• The United States Navy is committed to excellence in operational meteorology
– Unless we keep the Fleet safe, nothing else really matters
• We are interdependent with our partners and stakeholders
– Part of the nation’s weather infrastructure
• The Future is bright – and very different from the past
– Forecasters: Moving up the value chain
• How we communicate our information
• Ensembles Risk management
– Battlespace on Demand Decision Superiority
• Naval Oceanography – a great place to work!
We are the Navy’s Operational Science Community
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KNOWLEDGE-CENTRICWARFIGHTING FOCUSED
Anti-Submarine Warfare
Naval Special Warfare
Mine Warfare
ISR
Navigation
Precise Time and Astrometry
Fleet Operations
Maritime Operations
Aviation Operations
FN
MO
C
NA
VO
USNO
Warfighting
Safety
Shaping
Naval Oceanography
• ~$600M operating budget
• 12 ships
•1950 military, 1350 civilians
CU
S
Naval OceanographyNaval Oceanography
• Teamwork• Technical Excellence• Clear Communications• Manage Risk• Measure Results• Continuous Improvement
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Naval MeteorologyNaval Meteorology
• Numerical Wx Prediction
• Maritime / Polar
• Aviation
• Tropical Cyclone Forecasts
• Fleet Operations
• Expeditionary
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0.6
0.65
0.7
0.75
0.8
0.85
0.9
0.95
1
24 HR 48 HR 72 HR 96 HR 120HR
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
• Global
• Regional / Relocatable
• Aerosol / Dispersion
• Tropical Cyclone
• Coupled Wave and Ocean
• Ensembles
• Information Assurance
• Tight R&D Ops Connection
Numerical Weather PredictionNumerical Weather Prediction
0.6
0.65
0.7
0.75
0.8
0.85
0.9
0.95
1
24 HR 48 HR 72 HR 96 HR 120HR
1989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007
500
mb
Hei
ght
AC
NHEM
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Joint Typhoon Warning CenterJoint Typhoon Warning Center
26 TC’s
6 TC’s
24 TC’s
• 35 – 40% decrease in track errors over past 10 years
• 72 hour track error < 150 nm in 2007
• Used by NWS for Guam, Saipan
• 56 Tropical Cyclones warned on in 2007
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Communication
“Paradox of Accuracy”• Better warnings may not equate to less damageBetter warnings may not equate to less damage
• How to best communicate probabilistic information?How to best communicate probabilistic information?
The Weather Research Challenge• Track + Intensity + Structure + Coupling = Better Sea, Swell & Storm Surge FcstsTrack + Intensity + Structure + Coupling = Better Sea, Swell & Storm Surge Fcsts
The Communications Research Challenge• Storm vs. Tropical Storm, Storm vs. Tropical Storm, Gale vs. Tropical Gale, etc. Gale vs. Tropical Gale, etc.
• TC COR ambiguity - “Hazardous vs.TC COR ambiguity - “Hazardous vs.• Destructive vs.Destructive vs.•Hurricane Winds”Hurricane Winds”
“Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.”
-Albert Einstein
Naval OceanographyNaval Oceanography
27 22 179 12 240
Officers Chiefs Junior Enlisted Civilians Total
Safety OperationsSafety Operations
Aviation Weather (World Wide)
010002000300040005000
F M A M J
Canned Rte
TAF
DD-175-1'sMonth
0
2000
4000
N D J F M A M J
Maritime Ops (Ships)(WEAX-Messages Sent)
WEAX
Maritime Ops (Ships)(OTSR-Messages Sent)
0100200300400500
N D J F M A M J
OTSR
Smart:• Sensing• Forecasting / Automation• Communications• Partnering
• NWS• USAF• Other Countries
$300B of Ships, A/C and Shore Assets
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PartnershipsPartnerships
• Navy values the partnerships and interdependence with NOAA, the USAF, academia and industry in meteorology – we can’t do this alone!
– JTWC … A success story for over 50 years
• USAF Satellite and forecasting expertise
– National Weather Service forecasts are the backbone of the Navy’s installation resource protection program.
• 5 Day TC forecasts
• NWS investment in Advanced TC Forecaster (ATCF)
– Participation in next generation national weather forecast model with NOAA and USAF
– Navy contributes a key numerical forecast member to the Nation’s tropical cyclone forecast ensemble.
• ATCF, Sat Viewer
– International
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The FutureThe Future
• Big Changes for NOGAPS in 2008/9
– Semi-Lagrangian (T239L30 T479L60)
– 4DVAR (NAVDAS – AR)
– Ensembles (NAEFS, migrate to EKTF, WW3 w/ NCEP)
– WW3 Upgrades
– CPU Upgrade at Monterey (1.4 TFLOPS 22 TFLOPS)
• People
– Contracting out observing functions at Naval Air Stations
– B.S. Marine Meteorology for qualified Sailors
– In-house forecasting training
• Ensembles & Communication
– Typhoon forecasts
– Experiments
– NRL Probabilistic Prediction Research Office (PRO)
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People + TechnologyPeople + Technology
• Partnering with the Science, Technology, and Research and Development communities to:
– Maximize operational impact
– Minimize time to transition into our skilled workforce
• Increased model skill – an opportunity to do our job differently
– Automate first guess for enroute ship forecasts and routes
– Automate environmental impact assessment – provides rapid situational awareness
• Training and education of skilled 21st century weather forecasters
– How to best use ensembles
– How to best use forecast information to inform decision-makers
• In combat
• In risk-management
• In civilian applications (e.g., Next-Gen)
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SummarySummary
• Navy remains committed to excellence in meteorology
• Increasing focus on leveraging partnerships with NOAA, USAF and international stakeholders
– Participation in next generation national forecast model (NUOPC)
– Ocean forecasting
– Defining the role of the 21st century forecaster
• Battlespace on Demand
• Rapid transition advanced S&T discoveries into operations
• We are hiring!
• There is opportunity everywhere we look – in the tropical field!
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Questions?Questions?