• Navigating an Uncertain World

• A book in two parts– The Columbus Project– A Pilots Guide

• A webinar with the authors– Gill Ringland, Patricia Lustig, Rob Phaal, Martin

Duckworth, Chris Yapp

04/21/23 1

• After “Beyond Crisis” it became clear that– There is no return to Business as Usual– Most organisations are facing organisational renewal– We needed to help people see how to get started

• The tool kit needed fleshing out • This webinar will focus on the Pilots Guide – the toolkit –

and use The Columbus Project for examples• The Columbus Project follows a fictional organisation –

FutureParts – on their journey of renewal.

04/21/23 2

Effective at renewal ?

Efficiency

Asset allocation

Traditional hierarchy

Ad hoc activities,

lobbying etc

Present and future operating environment04/21/23 3

©2009 Ringland, Sparrow, Lustig

©2009 Ringland, Sparrow, Lustig

Effective at renewal

Efficiency

Asset allocation

Traditional hierarchy

Planning and ensuring

that the renewal machinery

works

Present and future operating environment04/21/23 4

Audit of capability

Organisational insight

Organisational & leadership development

Horizon scanning

Scenarios

Asset allocation

Policy and strategy

Review Narrative

Innovation

Road maps

04/21/23 5©2009 Ringland, Sparrow, Lustig

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Tricia Lustig

Audit of capability

Organisational insight

04/21/23 7©2009 Ringland, Sparrow, Lustig

• Values – the organisation’s values are not always explicit and are slow to change

• Narrative – what stories does the organisation tell and how does it describe itself?

• Insight - how does the organisation make sense of the internal capability and external world?

• Options – how dos the organisation decide where to invest?

• Machinery – are the culture, processes and people in place to support renewal?

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Martin Duckworth

Audit of capability

Organisational audit

Horizon scanning

04/21/23 10©2009 Ringland, Sparrow, Lustig

• Trying not to miss the obvious

• An external (fresh) perspective

• Evidence of change

• Evidence of new trends

• Seeking early indicators of changeMore detail

Less detail

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DRIVER

PRESSURE

STATE

IMPACT

RESPONSE

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TIME

PROMINENCE OF DRIVER

NOW LOOKING AHEAD DISTANT FUTURE

Horizon 1:Analysis

Horizon 3:Imagination

Horizon 2:Exploration

04/21/23 13

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Gill Ringland

Audit of capability

Organisational insight

Horizon scanning

Scenarios

04/21/23 15©2009 Ringland, Sparrow, Lustig

16

17

Today Trends

Scenarios explore the range

ofuncertainties

Timing ?

Forecasts are over-precise

Time

Range of forecasts

Scenario spacespans the uncertainties

GDP, Population, etc

C SAMI Consulting 201004/21/23 18

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Dr Chris Yapp

Audit of capability

Organisational insight

Horizon scanning

Scenarios

Innovation

04/21/23 20©2009 Ringland, Sparrow, Lustig

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Rob Phaal

Audit of capability

Organisational insight

Horizon scanning

Scenarios

Innovation

Roadmaps

04/21/23 24©2009 Ringland, Sparrow, Lustig

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Time

Market & Business

Product, Services &

Systems

Technology, Capabilities

&Resources

Where are we now?

How can we get there?

Where do we want

to go?

Why do we need to act?

What should we do?

How can we do it?

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Tricia Lustig

Audit of capability

Organisational insight

Organisational & leadership development

Horizon scanning

Scenarios

Asset allocation

Policy and strategy

Review Narrative

Innovation

Road maps

04/21/23 29©2009 Ringland, Sparrow, Lustig

Performance

Time

A

B

C

D

E

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©2009 Ringland, Sparrow, Lustig

Effective at renewal

Efficiency

Asset allocation

Traditional hierarchy

Planning and ensuring that

the renewal machinery works

Present and future operating environment04/21/23 32