navigating peace initiative: water conflict and cooperation
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EnvironmEntal ChangE and SECurity progr
6
Water Conflict and Cooperation: Looking Over the HorizonTherealityofwatersrolesinconictandcoopera-
tion is more complex than the political rhetoric o
water wars oten implies. While the potential or
violent and social conict over water is clear, the level
o this conict is not so clear-cut. Exhaustive researchbyAaronWolfofOregonStateUniversityhasrmly
established that international violent conict is rare-
lyi evercaused by, or ocused on, water resourc-
es. Historically, ormal and inormal international
political institutions managing water have adapted to
increased scarcity without resorting to the expensive
and inefcient means o war to secure water supplies.
Instead, nations cooperate to manage their shared
water resources (although equity and power dier-
ences mean all cooperation is not the same).
Thishistorydoesnot,however,closethedooron
thepossibilityofwaterwars.By2050,asmanyas
7billionpeoplemorethancurrentlyaliveinthe
world todaymay live under conditions o water
scarcityandstress.Alargebodyofscholarlyresearch
suggests that environmental degradation may cata-
lyze violent conict within states, so the uture may
not resemble the past.
However, little systematic research examines an
important corollary: that environmental cooperation
may be a useul catalyst or regional peacemaking.
Theuniquequalitiesofwatercouldprovidethecor-
nerstone or eorts to build confdence and peacein regions with unsettled interstate relations. Shared
water resources could oer avenues or trust build-
ing that can in turn support predictable and more
enmeshed relations among potential adversaries.
TheNavigatingPeaceInitiativesWaterConict
and Cooperation Working Group commissioned
our policy bries to identiy the current and emerg-
ing trends in water conict and cooperation. With
the generous support o the Carnegie Corporation o
NewYork,andledbyECSPDirectorGeoffDabelko,
the working group sought to:
Understand the current mix o conict and coop-eration over water along wider continua o conict
and at more levels o analysis than have customar-
ily been considered;
Anticipatefuturepossibilitiesforviolentwater
conict given the negative indicators in many
areas o water management; and
Formulate proactive steps or heading o conict
and encouraging cooperation.
Water Conflict and CooperationWorking Group Members
Inger Andersen,World Bank
Kent Butts, U.S.ArmyWarCollege
Ken Conca, University o Maryland
Geoffrey Dabelko,Woodrow Wilson
International Center or Scholars
Kirk Emerson, UniversityofArizona
Patricia Kameri-Mbote, Strathmore University,
NairobiAaron Salzberg, U.S. Department o State
Anthony Turton, TouchStoneResourcesand
InternationalWaterResourceAssociation
Aaron Wolf, Oregon State University
Howard Wolpe,Woodrow Wilson International
Center or Scholars
Navigating Peace
Initiative
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ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE & SECURITY PROGRAM SPECIAL REPORT
Water wars are coming! the newspaper headlines scream. It seems obviousrivalries over water have been the source o disputes since humans settled down to
cultivate ood. Even our language reects these ancient roots: Rivalry comes rom
the Latin rivalis, or one using the same river as another. Countries or provinces
bordering the same river (known as riparians) are oten rivals or the water they
share.Asthenumberofinternationalriverbasins(andimpactofwaterscarcity)
has grown, so do the warnings that these countries will take up arms to ensure their
accesstowater.In1995,forexample,WorldBankVicePresidentIsmailSerageldin
claimed that the wars o the next century will be about water.
Theseapocalypticwarningsyin thefaceofhistory:Nonationshavegoneto
war specifcally over water resources or thousands o years. International water
disputes even among ferce enemiesare resolved peaceully, even as conictserupt over other issues. In act, instances o cooperation between riparian nations
outnumberedconictsbymorethantwotoonebetween1945and1999.Why?
Because water is so important, nations cannot aord to fght over it. Instead, water
fuelsgreaterinterdependence.Bycomingtogethertojointlymanagetheirshared
water resources, countries can build trust and prevent conict. Water can be a nego-
tiating tool, too: It can oer a communication lieline connecting countries in the
midstofcrisis.Thus,bycryingwaterwars,doomsayersignoreapromisingwayto
helppreventwar: cooperative water resources management.
O course, people competesometimes violentlyor water. Within a nation,
usersarmers, hydroelectric dams, recreational users, environmentalistsare oten
at odds, and the probability o a mutually acceptable solution alls as the number ostakeholdersrises.Waterisneverthesingleandhardlyeverthemajorcauseof
conict. But it can exacerbate existing tensions. History is littered with examples o
violent water conicts: Just as Caliornian armers bombed pipelines moving water
fromOwensValleytoLosAngelesintheearly1900s,ChinesefarmersinShandong
clashed with police in 2000 to protest government plans to divert irrigation water to
Navigating Peace
JULY 2006
NO. 1
(PhotoAvnerVengosh)
Water Can Be a PathWay to PeaCe,
not WarBy Aaron T. Wolf, Annika Kramer, Alexander Carius, and Geoffrey D. Dabelko
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WATER CAN BE A PATHWAY TO PEACE, NOT WAR
cities and industries. But these conicts usually break
out withinnations. International rivers are a dier-
ent story.
Theworlds263 internationalriverbasinscover
45.3percentofEarthslandsurface,hostabout40
percent o the worlds population, and account or
approximately60percentofglobalriverow.And
the number is growing, largely due to the inter-
nationalization o basins through political chang-
es like the breakup o the Soviet Union, as well as
improved mapping technology. Strikingly, territory
in145nationsfallswithininternationalbasins,and
33countriesarelocatedalmostentirelywithinthese
basins.Asmanyas17countriesshareoneriverbasin,
the Danube.
Contrary to received wisdom, evidence shows this
interdependence does not lead to war. Researchers
at Oregon State University compiled a dataset o
nmb Cis Si ri Bsi
NUMBER OF
COUNTRIESINTERNATIONAL BASINS
3
Asi (Orontes), Awash, Cavally, Cestos, Chiloango, Dnieper, Dniester, Drin, Ebro,Essequibo, Gambia, Garonne, Gash, Geba, Har Us Nur, Hari (Harirud), Helmand, Hondo, Ili(Kunes He), Incomati, Irrawaddy, Juba-Shibeli, Kemi, Lake Prespa, Lake Titicaca-PoopoSystem, Lempa, Maputo, Maritsa, Maroni, Moa, Neretva, Ntem, Ob, Oueme, Pasvik,Red (Song Hong), Rhone, Ruvuma, Salween, Schelde, Seine, St. John, Sulak, Torne(Tornealven), Tumen, Umbeluzi, Vardar, Volga, and Zapaleri
4 Amur, Daugava, Elbe, Indus, Komoe, Lake Turkana, Limpopo, Lotagipi Swamp, Narva,Oder (Odra), Ogooue, Okavango, Orange, Po, Pu-Lun-To, Senegal, and Struma
5 La Plata, Neman, and Vistula (Wista)
6Aral Sea, Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna, Jordan, Kura-Araks, Mekong, Tarim, Tigris andEuphrates (Shatt al Arab), and Volta
8 Amazon and Lake Chad
9 Rhine and Zambezi
10 Nile
11 Congo and Niger
17 Danube
Note: From International River Basins of the World by Aaron T. Wolf et al., 1999, International Journal of WaterResources Development 15(4), 387-427. Adapted with permission of the author.
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ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE & SECURITY PROGRAM SPECIAL REPORT
every reported interaction (conictive or coopera-
tive) between two or more nations that was driven
bywaterinthelasthalfcentury.Theyfoundthat
the rate o cooperation overwhelms the incidence o
acuteconict.Inthelast50years,only37disputes
involvedviolence,and30ofthoseoccurredbetween
Israel and one o its neighbors. Outside o the Middle
East,researchersfoundonly5violentevents,while
157treatieswerenegotiatedandsigned.Thetotal
number o water-related events, between nations also
favors cooperation:The1,228cooperativeevents
dwarfthe507conict-relatedevents.Despitethe
fery rhetoric o politiciansaimed more oten at
their own constituencies than at the enemymost
actions taken over water are mild. O all the events,
more than 60 percent are verbal, and more than two-
thirds o these were not ofcial statements.
Simply put, water is a greater pathway to peace
than conict in the worlds international river basins.
International cooperation around water has a long
and successul history; some o the worlds most
vocierous enemies have negotiated water agree-
ments.Theinstitutionstheyhavecreatedareresil-
ient,evenwhenrelationsarestrained.TheMekongCommittee, or example, established by Cambodia,
Laos,Thailand,andVietnamin1957,exchanged
data and inormation on the river basin throughout
the Vietnam War.
Israel and Jordan held secret picnic table talks
tomanagetheJordanRiverstartingin1953,even
though they were ofcially at war rom 1948 until
the1994treaty.TheIndusRiverCommissionsur-
vivedtwomajorwarsbetweenIndiaandPakistan.
Andall10Nilebasinripariancountriesarecurrently
involvedin senior governmentlevel negotiationsto develop the basin cooperatively, despite the ver-
bal battles conducted in the media. Riparians will
endure such tough, protracted negotiations to ensure
access to this essential resource and its economic and
social benefts.
SouthernAfricancountriessignedanumberof
river basin agreements while the region was embroiled
inaseriesofwarsinthe1970sand1980s,including
thepeopleswarinSouthAfricaandcivilwarsin
MozambiqueandAngola.Thesecomplexnegotia-
tions produced rare moments o peaceul coopera-
tion. Now that most o the wars and the apartheid
era have ended, water management orms one o the
oundations or cooperation in the region, producing
one o the frst protocols signed within the Southern
AfricanDevelopmentCommunity(SADC).
Today,morethanever,itistimetostoppropagat-
ing threats o water wars and aggressively pursue a
water peacemaking strategy. Why?
Waterwars warnings force themilitary and
other security groups to take over negotiations
and push out development partners, like aid agen-
cies and international fnancial institutions.
Watermanagement offersanavenue forpeaceful
dialogue between nations, even when combatants
are fghting over other issues.
Water management builds bridges between
nations, some with little experience negotiatingwith each other, such as the countries o the or-
mer Soviet Union.
Water cooperation forges people-to-people or
expert-to-expert connections, as demonstrated
bythetransboundarywaterandsanitationproj-
ects Friends o the Earth Middle East conducts in
Israel, Jordan, and Palestine.
Awaterpeacemaking strategy can create shared
regional identities and institutionalize coopera-
tion on issues larger than water, as exemplifed by
theformationofSADCinpost-apartheidsouth -
ernAfrica.
Good governancethe lack o corruptionis the
basic oundation or the success o any agreement.
Obviously, money is also a big challenge. But good
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WATER CAN BE A PATHWAY TO PEACE, NOT WAR
governance and money are not enough. Several pol-
icy initiatives could help peacemakers use water to
build peace:
1. Identiy and utilize more experienced acili-
tators who are perceived as truly neutral.The
World Banks success acilitating the Nile Basin
Initiative suggests they have skills worth replicat-
ing in other basins.
2. Be willing to support alongprocess that might
not produce quick or easily measurable results.
Swedens20-yearcommitmenttoAfricasGreat
Lakesregionisamodeltoemulate.Typicalproj-
ect cyclesoten governed by shiting govern-
ment administrations or political trendsare not
long enough.
3. Ensure that the riparians themselves drive the
process. Riparian nations require unders and
acilitators who do not dominate the processand claim all the glory. Strengthening less pow-
erul riparians negotiating skills can help pre-
vent disputes, as can strengthening the capacity
o excluded, marginalized, or weaker groups to
articulate their interests.
1,831 S--S W Icis i tsb Bsis, 19461999
Note:ThedataarefromInternationalWaters:IdentifyingBasinsatRiskbyAaronWolf,ShiraYoffe,andMarc
Giordano,2003,Water Policy5(1),31-62.Adaptedwithpermissionoftheauthor.
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4. Strengthen water resource management.
Capacity buildingto generate and analyze data,
develop sustainable water management plans,
use conict resolution techniques, or encourage
stakeholder participationshould target water
management institutions, local nongovernmental
organizations, water users associations, and reli-
gious groups.
5. Balance the benets o closed-door, high-level
negotiations with the beneits o including
all stakeholdersNGOs, armers, indigenous
groupsthroughout the process. Preventing
severe conicts requires inorming or explicitlyconsulting all relevant stakeholders beore mak-
ing management decisions. Without such exten-
sive and regular public participation, stakeholders
mightrejectprojectsoutofhand.
Water management is, by defnition, conict man-
agement. For all the 21st century wizardrydynam-
ic modeling, remote sensing, geographic inormation
systems, desalination, biotechnology, or demand
managementand the new-ound concern with glo-
balization and privatization, the crux o water dis-
putes is still little more than opening a diversion gate
or garbage oating downstream. Obviously, there are
no guarantees that the uture will look like the past;
water and conict are undergoing slow but steady
changes.Anunprecedentednumberofpeoplelack
accesstoasafe,stablesupplyofwater.Twotove
million people die each year rom water-related ill-
ness. Water use is shiting to less-traditional sources
such as deep ossil aquiers and wastewater reclama-
tion. Conict, too, is becoming less traditional, driv-
en increasingly by internal or local pressures or, more
subtly,bypovertyandinstability.Thesechangessug-
gest that tomorrows water disputes may look very
dierent rom todays.
No matter what the uture holds, we do not need
violent conict to prove water is a matter o lie and
death. Waterbeing international, indispensable,
and emotionalcan serve as a cornerstone or conf-
dence building and a potential entry point or peace.
More research could help identiy exactly how water
best contributes to cooperation. With this, coopera-
tive water resources management could be used more
eectively to head o conict and to support sus-
tainable peace among nations.
BiographiES
Aaron T. Wolf is proessor o geography in the Department o Geosciences at Oregon State University and directoro the Transboundary Freshwater Dispute Database. Annika Kramer is a project manager and Alexander Carius
is director o Adelphi Research in Berlin. Geoffrey D. Dabelko is the director o the Environmental Change and
Security Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center or Scholars in Washington, D.C.
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THE CHALLENGES Of GROUNdWATER IN SOUTHERN AfRICA
(Photo Kirk Emerso
the ChallengeS of groundWater
In Southern afrICaByAnthonyTurton,MarianPatrick,JudeCobbing,andFrdricJulien
ItisimpossibletounderstandthedevelopmentalconstraintsofAfricawithoutgraspingthe
signicanceofwaterresources,particularlygroundwater.SouthernAfrica1
aces potentiallysevere groundwater shortages, which not only imperil the lives o those directly dependent
on it, but also the continued development o the economic engines o the regionSouth
Africa,Botswana,andNamibiaallofwhich facesignicantconstraintsontheirfutureeco-
nomic growth due to the insecurity o water supply. In addition, groundwater resources are
the oundation o rural water supplies, which sustain livelihoods or the poorest o the poor
communities.
Todays best practice in sustainablewatermanagementIntegratedWater Resource
Managementocuses on river basins as the units o management. However, this overlooks
twofundamentalrealitiesinsouthernAfrica:
1. Groundwater aquier systems, while being an integral part o the overall water resource,seldom correspond with the surace water management unitthe river basin; and
2. In almost all cases, groundwater systems are, by their very nature, transboundary.
Whileacomplexset ofagreements governtransboundary riverbasinsinsouthernAfrica,
the region lacks international groundwater treaties o similar sophistication and status, which
could be a potential cause o uture conict.
Te gundwte pblem n Suten afc
Water resource management is almost always transboundary.Water resource management
inAfricais,likethecontinentitself,aproductofitscolonialpast.Thecolonialpowersdividedthecontinentintounitsthattendedtobedenedbyrivers.Withinthe53Africancountries,
63riverbasinscrossinternationalborders.Thus,therearemoretransboundaryriverbasins
thansovereignstates.Theseriverbasinscovertwo-thirdsofthecontinentssurfacearea,in
which three-quarters o the human population lives, accounting collectively or a staggering
AUGUST 2006
NO. 2
1.Here,southernAfricaisdenedasthecontinentalcountriesthataremembersoftheSouthernAfricanDevelopmentCommunity(SADC);seehttp://www.sadc.int
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Mp 1: Pcipii i S aic
Note: Precipitation in southern Africa is unevenly distributed, with the four most economically developed coun-triesSouth Africa, Namibia, Botswana, and Zimbabweon the wrong side of the global annual average of860 mm, shown as a red line. Map courtesy of Peter Ashton.
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THE CHALLENGES Of GROUNdWATER IN SOUTHERN AfRICA
93percentofallsurfacewater.Andsignicantly,there
aremoretransboundaryaquifersinsouthernAfrica
than there are transboundary river basins.
Water is unevenly distributed in both space and
time.Thefourmosteconomicallydevelopedcountries
intheregionSouthAfrica,Namibia,Botswana,and
Zimbabweareallonthewrongsideoftheglobal
averageannualrainfall(seeMap1).Theirfutureeco -
nomic growth is potentially limited by the insecurity
o water supply.
Southern Arica has an inherently low conver-
sion rate o rainall to runo, which aects both
surace water river fows and groundwater recharge.
O the rainall that alls to earth in an average year,
only a small portion is converted to water owing in
rivers.SouthernAfrica,alongwithAustralia,hasthe
lowest conversion o rainall to runo in the world.
Groundwater recharge is also largely dependent on
rainall, but in a nonlinear ashion: Below the critical
thresholdof500mmofmeanannualrainfall,adra-
maticdrop-offinrechargeoccurs.Therefore,recharge
isgenerallylowinsouthernAfrica.Drought-proong
Africa requiresamajor investment in infrastructure
to store the limited streamow and assure the supplylevel necessary to provide a stable oundation or a
modern industrial economy.
Given the nonlinear nature o groundwater
recharge at low levels o rainall, coupled with the
prediction o a hotter and drier uture due to global
climate change, a reduction in aquier recharge is
a real likelihood. Looking at the scenario considered
most likely by mainstream climate change scientists
inAfrica,southernAfricaistheonepartoftheplanet
that is expected to become both warmer and drier by
2050.2
I one accepts this prediction, the groundwatersituationinsouthernAfricaislikelytobecomemuch
worse, with considerable reduction in recharge and
hence, an increase in vulnerability o the poor.
plcy recmmendtns
Although the river basin is the generally accept-
ed unit o management, we must recognize that
aquier systems do not coincide neatly with river
basins.Therefore,weneedpolicy-relatedresearch
on groundwater to assist decision-makers with the
management o this complex resource. In addition,
we call for support of the Alicante Declaration,
which seeks to establish a ramework or ground-
water management.3
Groundwater is almost always transboundary
innature.Aquiferscrossinginternationalpoliti-
cal borders pose dierent problems than river
basins.WhiletheSouthernAfricanDevelopment
Community(SADC)ischaracterizedbyarela-
tively sophisticated set o surace water agreements,
it conspicuously lacks agreements dealing specif-
callywithgroundwater.Theregionneedsto:(a)
more accurately map transboundary groundwaterresources (see Map 2 and table); (b) classiy such
resources in terms o hydrogeological character-
istics and uture demands; and (c) generate man-
agement regimes that are capable o dealing with
the problems associated with the resources specifc
hydrogeological characteristics.
Poverty eradication initiat ives such as the
Millennium Development Goals cannot be success-
ul without recognizing the links between develop-
ment, water resource management, aand globalclimate change. We must generate consensus on
2.TheHADCM3GlobalClimateChangemodelusingtheIPCCSRESA2ScenariopredictsahotteranddriersouthernAfricaby2050;seeScholes,RobertJ.,&R.Biggs.(2004).Ecosystem services in southern Africa: A regional assessment. Pretoria, SouthAfrica:CouncilforScienticandIndustrialResearch.
3.Seehttp://www.worldwatercouncil.org/leadmin/wwc/World_Water_Forum/WWF4/declarations/Alicante_Declaration.doc
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the need to reach agreement on carbon emission
targets,andwecalluponSADC,Brazil,India,and
China (as rapidly industrializing nations) to coop-
erate in negotiations to this end.
I we are serious about poverty eradication in
southernAfrica,thenwemustbeacutelyawareof
the link between transboundary water resource man-
agement and changing patterns o resource use. In
almost all cases, signifcant resourcesboth surace
andgroundwateraretransboundaryinnature.The
our most economically developed countries in the
region are all approaching limitations on uture eco-nomic growth and development due to low assurance
ofwatersupply.Theregionscountriesshareanumber
o transboundary water resources and all have a vested
interest in reaching agreement on their management
in a air, equitable, and peaceul ashion.
Mp 2: Sm tsb aqi Ssms i
S aic
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75
THE CHALLENGES Of GROUNdWATER IN SOUTHERN AfRICA
tb: Kw tsb aqi Ssms b
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BiographiES
Anthony Turton is director o TouchStone Resources and executive director o the International Water ResourceAssociation. Marian Patrick is a researcher at the Council or Scientic and Industrial Research. Jude Cobbing
is a hydrogeologist at Water Geosciences Consulting. Frdric Julien is a Canadian intern working or the CSIR
Water Resource Governance Research Group.
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ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE & SECURITY PROGRAM SPECIAL REPORT
Amidthe talk of looming water wars, a less dramaticbut more immediatelink
between water and violence is oten ignored: the violence engendered by poor gover-
nance o water resources. Policies to expand water supplies, develop hydroelectric power,alter reshwater ecosystems, or change the terms o access to water can have devastating
impactsonthelivelihoods,cultures,andhumanrightsoflocalcommunities.Asthese
communities learn to voice their grievances, build networks across borders, and connect
with human rights and environmental activists, once-local conicts become international
disputes.Asaresult,policymakersatalllevelsarebeingforcedtorethinkwatersrolein
development.Toensurewatersecurityinthe21stcentury,socialconictsoverwatermust
be managed in ways that accommodate the ull range o people aected by water develop-
mentprojects.
Scl Cncts ove Wte
Social conicts over water are, to some extent, inevitable, given waters multiple unc-
tions: It is a basic human need, the oundation o livelihoods, the lieblood o critical
ecosystems, a cultural symbol, and a marketable commodity. Managing social conict is
central to good water management. However, as the development o water resources and
the transormation o reshwater ecosystems have intensifed, so have the conicts.
Social conicts around water are not only increasing, but also being transormed by
twosimultaneousglobalrevolutions.Thecommunicationsrevolutionhasproducedan
explosion in global networks, access to inormation, and personal mobility, making it
easier or aected communities and sympathetic advocacy groups to partner with those
inothercountries.Thedemocraticrevolutionhasincreasedtheabilityofpeopleinprevi -
ously closed societies to organize and express dissent, making it easier (though not always
easy)forcommunitiestoopposeprojectsorpoliciesthatharmtheirinterests,livelihoods,
andcultures.Asa resultofthesetworevolutions,conictsthatwereoncelargelylocal
matters have been dragged into international arenas.
NOVEMBER 2006
NO. 3
the neW faCe of Water ConflICtBy Ken Conca
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THE NEW fACE Of WATER CONfLICT
Capital-intensive water inrastructure proj-
ectssuchas large dams, irrigation schemes, and
transportation canalsare the ocus o some o
theseconicts.Theaffectedcommunitiesaretypi-
cally rural and poor, and requently home to cultural
minoritiesorotherwisedisempoweredgroups.The
World Commission on Dams estimated in its 2000
reportthatsuchprojectshaveforcedsome40-80
million people to relocatemany without adequate
compensation and most with little or no say in the
process.Projectsiteshavebeenthesceneofmany
violent conrontations between communities and
governments;inaddition,projectsupportershave
targeted local activists or violence.
Changes in community access to water supplies
canalsogeneratesocialconict.Theincreasingdif-
fculty o fnancing water-supply inrastructure, as
well as pressure rom international fnancial inst i-
tutions, has led some governments to contract out
water services to the private sector. Many more are
marketizing water by increasing prices, cutting o
service or nonpayment, or otherwise limiting access
to water. In Cochabamba, Bolivia, in 2000, largeprotests against price increases and concessions given
to a private multinational consortium led the govern-
ment to declare a state o emergency and deploy the
army; at least one person died and more than 100
were injured inclasheswith securityforces.Similar
protests (on a lesser scale) have broken out in many
countries, recently claiming lives in China, India,
Pakistan, Colombia, Kenya, and Somalia.
Finally, impacts on critical socio-ecological sys-
tems that provide environmental services and sustainlocallivelihoodscantriggerconict.Aquaculture,
or example, is an increasingly important source o
ood around the world, as well as a popular develop-
mentstrategyinmanytropicalcoastalregions.Yet
industrial-scale fsh arming, particularly or shrimp,
oten has a severe impact on local communities:
it can lead to water pollution, wastewater dump-
ing, eutrophication, saltwater intrusion, mangrove
deorestation, and the privatization o traditionally
community-ownedresources.Theseproblemshave
spurred aected communities to protest, call or boy-
cotts, and take other direct actions, to which some
governments have responded by using coercive orce
and targeting local activists.
We must address these social conicts over water
becausehumanrightsandenvironmentaljusticeare
intrinsically important, particularly or people who
are marginalized by current economic structures and
development initiatives. In addition, the broad legiti-
macy needed to institute reorm will not be obtained
without better ways to resolve conict, increase par-
ticipation by members o aected communities, and
encourage stakeholder dialogueespecially impor-
tant now, when many countries are redesigning water
laws, policies, and practices to emphasize conserva-
tion, environmental protection, efcient resource
use, and integrated water resources management.Above all,weshouldview systematic and repeated
protests as evidence that policies have ailedan
early warning that must not be ignored in the rush to
implement particular notions o development.
plcy recmmendtns
Strengthenthehumanrighttowater.TheUN
Committee on Economic, Social, and Cultural Rights
has recognized the human right to water, includingthe obligation o states to respect, protect, and ulfll
waterrights.Thehumanrighttowaterisalsoimplicit
in rights to ood, survival, and an adequate standard
o living, and in peoples right to manage their own
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ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE & SECURITY PROGRAM SPECIAL REPORT
resources.Thechallengeisgivingtheserightscon-
creteratherthantheoreticalmeaning.Toachieve
this goal, we should recognize the right to water in
national ramework laws and international develop-
ment assistance practices; create better mechanisms
to hold both state and nonstate actors accountable
or implementing and complying with existing laws
and policies; and ensure that economic reorms are
implemented within a human rights ramework.
Treatwaterprojectsasameans,notanend.
Toooften,developmentagenciestreatprojectsasan
end rather than a means, and thus ail to assess the
ull range o alternatives. Worsening this problem are
competition between donor agencies, corruption, and
thepracticeofsubsidizingdubiousprojectsthrough
export credit agencies. Donor agencies and host gov-
ernments alike must improve their ability to survey
all the options and choose those with the ewest
negative impacts. In addition, they should remember
that their ultimate aims are reducing poverty, meet-
ing basic needs, and increasing human security, not
simplyreproducingfamiliarprojectsandcontinuingbusiness as usual.
Createbetterwaystoresolveenvironmentaldis-
putes.Thelackofeffectivemechanismsforresolving
environmental disputes is perhaps the weakest link
in the chain o global environmental governance.
Whi le useul, current mechanismssuch as the
PermanentCourtofArbitration,theWorldBanks
inspectionpanel,ortheWorldTradeOrganizations
dispute resolution proceduresail to provide eec-tive, inclusive, and dispute-transorming outcomes
consistently.TheUNsHigh-LevelPanelonSystem-
Wide Coherence in the Areas of Development,
HumanitarianAssistance,andEnvironmentiscur-
rently considering a wide range o reorms. Its rec-
ommendations should include establishing a mecha-
nism or arbitrating, resolving, and transorming
disputes that involve not only governments, but also
intergovernmental organizations, transnational busi-
ness, NGOs, and local communities.
Learnlessonsfromtransnationalstakeholder
dialogue initiatives.Astraditionalinterstateinsti-
tutions have proved unable to manage cross-border
conicts over water and other resources eectively,
broader and more inclusive stakeholder dialogues
have begun to emerge, such as the World Commission
onDams.Theseinitiativesarenotapanacea,howev-
er. In addition, there is no easy way to identiy all the
stakeholdersinagivendispute.Yettheseeffortsraise
the bar by giving aected people a voice. In addi-
tion, they oer important lessons on how to build
global consensus: Recognize and work through di-
fcult disagreements rather than seek least-common-
denominator statements o general principles; coop-
eratively build knowledge through open, participa-
tory processes; and support such global dialogueswith robust national stakeholder orums.
Broaden participation in international river
agreements. Internationally shared river basins are
often the subject of international diplomacy.Too
oten, however, this diplomacy is limited to dividing
water supplies equitably between nations and reduc-
ingthepotentialforinternationalconict.Although
these goals are important, they do little to address
the human security o people living in the basin. Fewinternational river basin agreements or the institutions
they create include robust mechanisms or incorporat-
ing civil society. Without broad participation and a
ocus on human security, the rush to promote interna-
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79
THE NEW fACE Of WATER CONfLICT
tional cooperationoten driven by proposed large-
scalewaterinfrastructureprojectsmaysimplyaccel-
erate exploitation o water resources.
Recognizetheglobaldemandsthatdrivelocal
resource pressures.Social conicts over water oten
arise at a local level, on the scale o a city or a water-
shed.Yettheymaybedrivenbypowerfulexternal
forces.Thegrowthofindustrialshfarmingisfueled
by changing consumer tastes in rich countries. Big
hydroelectric projects in remote locations often
power industrial processing acilities that plug into
the global economy, while bypassing local economies
and imposing a heavy burden on local communities.
Local initiatives to improve water governance must
be supported by mechanisms that connect the dots
between global drivers and local impacts, such as
product certifcation, consumer inormation cam-
paigns, and cradle-to-grave accountability.
Donotsacricewaterrightstomeetclimate
change goals. Aspressuremountstorespondtothe
threat o global climate change, poorly conceived
hydroelectricprojectsmaybepushedthroughas
cleandevelopmentprojects.Hydroelectricityhasits
place in the worlds energy-supply mix. But climate
change will also aect stream ow and local water
cyclesproblems that can be dramatically worsened
bysomewater-infrastructureprojects.Rushingto
replace big ossil with big hydro risks increasing
the substantial water burdens conronting local com-
munities in a greenhouse world.
Biography
Ken Conca is a proessor o government and politics at the University o Maryland and the director o the Har-
rison Program on the Future Global Agenda, a research and teaching program on global issues. He ocuses
on the politics o water, global environmental politics, political economy, North-South issues, and peace and
confict studies. Concas latest book is Governing Water: Contentious Transnational Politics and Global Institu-
tion Building(MIT Press, 2006).
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ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE & SECURITY PROGRAM SPECIAL REPORT
(PhotoIngerAndersen)
Water, ConflICt, and
CooPeratIon: leSSonS froM
the nIle rIver BaSIn
By Patricia Kameri-Mbote
In1979,EgyptianPresidentAnwarSadatsaid:Theonlymatterthatcouldtake
Egypt to war again is water. In 1988, then-Egyptian Foreign Minister Boutros
Boutros-Ghali, who later became the United Nations Secretary-General, predicted
that the next war in the Middle East would be ought over the waters o the Nile,
not politics. Rather than accept these rightening predictions, we must examine
them within the context o the Nile River basin and the relationships orged among
the states that share its waters.
Te Nle rve Bsn
TencountriessharethebasinoftheNile,arguablytheworldslongestriver:
Burundi,Egypt,Eritrea,Ethiopia,Kenya,Rwanda,Sudan,Tanzania,Uganda,and
theDemocraticRepublicoftheCongo(seemap).Thebasinsthreemillionsquare
kilometerscoverabout10percentoftheAfricancontinent.Approximately160
millionpeopledependontheNileRiverfortheirlivelihoods,andabout300mil -
lionpeoplelivewithinthe10basincountries.Withinthenext25years,theregions
population is expected to double, adding to the demand or water, which is already
exacerbatedbythegrowthoftheregionsindustriesandagriculture.Theconstant
threat o droughts increases the urgency o the problem, and pollution rom land-
use activities aects downstream water quality. Finally, except or Kenya and Egypt,allofthebasincountriesareamongtheworlds50poorestnations,makingtheir
populations even more vulnerable to amine and disease.
Egypt and Sudan hold absolute rights to use 100 percent o the rivers water
under agreements reached in 1929 between Egypt and Britain (which was then
thecolonialpowerinKenya,Sudan,Tanzania,andUganda)andin1959between
Egypt and Sudan.
JANUARY 2007
NO. 4
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81
WATER, CONfLICT, ANd COOPERATION: LESSONS fROM THE NILE RIVER BASIN
Source:Printing,GraphicsandMapDesignUnit,TheWorldBank
t ni ri Bsi
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ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE & SECURITY PROGRAM SPECIAL REPORT
Since Egypt must consent to other nations use o
the Niles water, most o the other basin countries have
notdevelopedprojectsthatuseitextensively.Not
surprisingly, over the years other basin countries have
contested the validity o these treaties and demanded
their revocation to make way or a more equitable sys-
tem o management.
Cnct nd Cetn n te Nle
rve Bsn
Confict over the Niles waters could an existing
conficts in the Greater Horn o Arica, making
them more complex and harder to address. Tensions
intheGreaterHornofAfricaareofgreatconcern
to the international community, due to its volatility
and proximity to the Middle East. Conicts emerg-
ing here might spread political, social, and economic
instability into the surrounding areas. In a river basin,
conict is most likely to emerge when the downstream
nation is militarily stronger than nations upstream,
and the downstream nation believes its interests in the
shared water resource are threatened by actions o theupstream nations. In the Nile basin, the downstream
nation, Egypt, controls the regions most powerul
military, and ears that its upstream neighbors will
reduce its water supply by constructing dams without
its consent.
Despitethisgloomyscenario,interstatewaris
unlikely, according to history: No nations have
gone to war specically over water resources or
thousands o years. Instances o cooperation between
riparian nations outnumbered conicts by more than
2-to-1between1945and1999.1 Instead o war, water
uels greater interdependence. By coming together to
jointlymanagetheirsharedwaterresources,countries
build trust and prevent conict. In the ace o poten-
tial conict and regional instability, the Nile basin
countries continue to seek cooperative solutions.
Thepoliticalwilltodevelopanewlegalframe -
work or managing the Nile should continue. In
principle, the countries o the Nile River basin agree
that the situation should change. However, they donot agree on how. Tohelpreachaconsensus,they
developed the high-level Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) in
1999. Originally designed as a way to share scientifc
inormation, the NBI today brings together ministers
rom the basin countries to achieve sustainable socio-
economic development through equitable utilization
o, and beneft rom, the common Nile basin water
resources, as stated in its shared vision.2TheNBIhas
served as a catalyst or cooperation in the search or a
new legal ramework or the management o the Nile.
However, high-level negotiations like the NBI are
not enough; civil society must be involved. Since the
inhabitants o a river basin play critical roles in the suc-play critical roles in the suc-
cess o any international agreement, interstate nego-
By coming together to jointly
manage their share water
resources, countries buil trust
an prevent conict. In the
ace o potential conict an
regional instability, the Nile
basin countries continue toseek cooperative solutions.
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83
WATER, CONfLICT, ANd COOPERATION: LESSONS fROM THE NILE RIVER BASIN
tiations should also include stakeholders beyond the
national governments. Civil society engagement and
participation in the development o the Nile basin
have been acilitated not only through the NBIs Civil
Society Stakeholder Initiative but also through the
NileBasinDiscourse(NBD).TheNBDsNational
Discourse Forums, established in each o the basin
countries, provide a venue or all the Niles users to
airtheirexpectationsandgrievances.Throughthese
orums, stakeholders can provide input into develop-
mentprojectsalongtheriverbasin.TheNBDinvolves
a broader array o stakeholders than the traditional
state representatives, thus allowing users at the low-est levelsincluding armers, womens groups, fshers,
and existing community-based organizationsto par-
ticipate in the development o a legal ramework.
plcy recmmendtns
Recognizethatenvironmentalresourcessuchas
water can be pathways to peace.While people will
likely fght with their neighbors over water, nations
have not, historically preerring cooperation overconict.
Usewaterdiplomacytobuildsustainabledevel-
opment, democracy, and equality. Water manage-
ment schemes must promote equitable use or current
and uture users, increase access, share benefts, and
encourage broad participation.
Engagenon-stateactors(suchasfarmers,shers,
womens groups, and community-based organiza-
tions) in nding cooperative solutions to potential
water conficts.
Developthecapacityofcivilsocietygroupsto
ensure they can meaningully contribute to basin-
wide initiatives. Such capacity building will bridge
the endowment gap between civil society and govern-
ment. It will also enable local users to demand access
to benefts governed by interstate agreements while
continuing to buy in to basin-wide initiatives, reduc-
ing the chances o conict.
Coordinatetheeffortsofbilateralandmulti-lateral unding institutions operating in the basin
to realize synergies and engender cooperation
over water. TheseinstitutionsincludetheCanadian
International Development Agency (CIDA), the
Swedish International Development Cooperation
Agency (S IDA), and the Unit ed Kingdoms
Department or International Development (DFID),
as well as the World Bank.
Basin states are interdependent and their develop-
ment is inevitably linked to the rivers hydrologic cycle.
Coordinated management o the waters o the Nile is
beginning to create synergy in dierent countries and
sectors,andcontributetooverallcooperation.TheNile
basin countries could resolve conicts by planning and
The Nile Basin
Initiative has serve
as a catalyst or
cooperation in the
search or a new legal
ramework or the
management o the Nile.
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managingwaterresourcesjointlytoachievesustain-
able development and regional stability, under a sound
legal and institutional ramework agreed to by all par-
ties. Reaching this agreement will require involving
all stakeholders in transboundary water management,
building trust among them, creating a common bond,
and identiying shared interests.
Collaborative management o the Niles water
resources could act as a catalyst or peace in a region
beset by conict. I we deal eectively with shared
water, we could help mitigate not only the daily strug-
gle or lie, but also the deadly battles that threaten to
pit tribe against tribe, clan against clan, amily against
amily, and neighbor against neighbor.
Notes
1.Wolf,Aaron,ShiraYoffe,&MarcGiordano.(2003).International waters: Identiying basins at risk. Water Policy
5(1),31-62.SeealsoNavigatingPeaceNo.1,Watercanbe
a pathway to peace, not war, available at http://www.wilson-
center.org/water
2. See http://www.nilebasin.org or more inormation and
a list o members and partners.
Biography
Patricia Kameri-Mbote is a proessor o law at Strathmore University (Nairobi) and an advocate o the High
Court o Kenya. She is also programme director or the International Environmental Law Research Centre.
Previously, she chaired the University o Nairobis Department o Private Law and served as acting dean or the
Faculty o Law. She was the rst chair o the Kenya Nile Discourse Forum, a network o civil society organiza-
tions working with other national discourse orums in the Nile River basin to infuence development o projects
and programs under the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) and other Nile-related programs. She was an Open Society
Institute Arica Policy Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center in 2006.
Water management
schemes must promote
equitable use or current
an uture users,
increase access, share
benets, an encourage
broa participation.