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Oppenheimer funds are distributed by OppenheimerFunds Distributor, Inc., 225 Liberty Street, New York, NY 10281-1008 © 2018 OppenheimerFunds Distributor, Inc. All rights reserved. Shares of Oppenheimer funds are not deposits or obligations of any bank, are not guaranteed by any bank, are not insured by the FDIC or any other agency and involve investment risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Navigating the Changing Tides in Global Growth: Challenges and Opportunities Brian Levitt OppenheimerFunds, Inc. April 26, 2018

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Page 1: Navigating the Changing Tides in Global Growth: Challenges ... Presentations/42618.pdf · MSCI Emerging Markets Index / MSCI World Index Emerging Market Business Activity and Equity

Oppenheimer funds are distributed by OppenheimerFunds Distributor, Inc., 225 Liberty Street, New York, NY 10281-1008© 2018 OppenheimerFunds Distributor, Inc. All rights reserved.

Shares of Oppenheimer funds are not deposits or obligations of any bank, are not guaranteed by any bank, are not insured by the FDIC or any other agency and involve investment risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested.

Navigating the Changing Tides in Global Growth:Challenges and Opportunities

Brian LevittOppenheimerFunds, Inc.April 26, 2018

Page 2: Navigating the Changing Tides in Global Growth: Challenges ... Presentations/42618.pdf · MSCI Emerging Markets Index / MSCI World Index Emerging Market Business Activity and Equity

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$10,000

$100,000

$1,000,000

$10,000,000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90%

Gallup Poll Presidential Approval Ratings and Dow Jones Industrial Average Growth of $100,000

Our Political Views are Immaterial to this Conversation

Source: Gallup 1/31/17. The Presidential Approval ratings were introduced in the late 1930s to gauge public support for the President of the United States during their term. For illustrative purposes only and not intended as investment advice. See page 87 for index definitions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

1961 1963 1969 1977 1981 1989 1993 2001 20091974 2017

Log Scale

Page 3: Navigating the Changing Tides in Global Growth: Challenges ... Presentations/42618.pdf · MSCI Emerging Markets Index / MSCI World Index Emerging Market Business Activity and Equity

3

Hating the Government is Not an Investment Strategy

Source: Gallup 1/31/17. The Presidential Approval ratings were introduced in the late 1930s to gauge public support for the President of the United States during their term. For illustrative purposes only and not intended as investment advice. See page 27 for index definitions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

2.4%

7.2%

11.0%

-13.8%-16%-14%-12%-10%

-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%

10%12%

> 65 50 to 65 36 to 50 < 35Presidential Approval Ratings

16% of time 39% of time 38% of time

7% of time

Gallup Poll Presidential Approval Ratings and Dow Jones Industrial Average Returns

Page 4: Navigating the Changing Tides in Global Growth: Challenges ... Presentations/42618.pdf · MSCI Emerging Markets Index / MSCI World Index Emerging Market Business Activity and Equity

4

Agenda

1. Cycle is Getting Older

2. Equities Are the Asset Class of Choice

3. Growth in a Slow Growth World

4. Low Interest Rates for the Long Term

5. Case for International (EM in Particular) is Strong

Page 5: Navigating the Changing Tides in Global Growth: Challenges ... Presentations/42618.pdf · MSCI Emerging Markets Index / MSCI World Index Emerging Market Business Activity and Equity

The Cycle is Getting Older

Page 6: Navigating the Changing Tides in Global Growth: Challenges ... Presentations/42618.pdf · MSCI Emerging Markets Index / MSCI World Index Emerging Market Business Activity and Equity

6

This Cycle is the 2nd Longest on Record

Sources: Bloomberg, 12/1/17.

1974-1980

1987-2000

2009-Current1982-1987

2002-20071949-1956

S&P 500 IndexPrice to Peak Earnings Ratio for Cycles Longer than 50 MonthsEach data point represents the price of the S&P 500 Index divided by the highest level of earnings achieved in that cycle. The price to peak earnings ratio is used to smooth earnings fluctuations.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 101

105

109

113

117

121

125

129

133

137

141

145

x

Page 7: Navigating the Changing Tides in Global Growth: Challenges ... Presentations/42618.pdf · MSCI Emerging Markets Index / MSCI World Index Emerging Market Business Activity and Equity

7

Sources: Bloomberg, 3/16/18

The Yield Curve Is Flattening

-450-375-300-225-150

-750

75150225300375450

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

10-Year U.S. Treasury Rate minus 1-Year U.S. Treasury Rate

Page 8: Navigating the Changing Tides in Global Growth: Challenges ... Presentations/42618.pdf · MSCI Emerging Markets Index / MSCI World Index Emerging Market Business Activity and Equity

8

Sources: Bloomberg, 3/16/18

Markets Tend to do Well Until the Recession

14.6%

22.6%

-2.4%

7.2%

30.2%

-0.1%-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

75 bps Wide to 0 bps 75 bps Wide to Beginning ofRecession

During Official Recession

AverageMedian

S&P 500 Index

Page 9: Navigating the Changing Tides in Global Growth: Challenges ... Presentations/42618.pdf · MSCI Emerging Markets Index / MSCI World Index Emerging Market Business Activity and Equity

9

End of Cycle DashboardIF

Source of chart data: Bloomberg, 12/31/17. Index definitions can be found on page 25. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

… U.S. and/or European inflation increases more rapidly … The 10-year U.S. Treasury rate falls and the yield curve flattens

… High yield credit spreads widen … The U.S. Dollar strengthens vs Emerging Market currencies

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1994 1999 2004 2009 2014

U.S. Credit Spreads (BPS)

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

1997 2002 2007 2012 2017

U.S. Wage Growth Y/Y (Avg Hr Earnings)E.U. Wage Growth Y/Y (Hr Comp)

75

85

95

105

2014 2015 2016 2017

DXY Index

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Federal Funds Rate Target 10-Year Treasury Yield

Page 10: Navigating the Changing Tides in Global Growth: Challenges ... Presentations/42618.pdf · MSCI Emerging Markets Index / MSCI World Index Emerging Market Business Activity and Equity

Equities Still our Asset Classof Choice

Page 11: Navigating the Changing Tides in Global Growth: Challenges ... Presentations/42618.pdf · MSCI Emerging Markets Index / MSCI World Index Emerging Market Business Activity and Equity

11

The Global Macro Backdrop is Sound

Percent of Countries’ Gross Domestic Product Growing Above Their Long-Term Average

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Q3

Perc

ent o

f Cou

ntrie

s Ab

ove

Thei

r Lon

g-Te

rm A

vera

ge

59%of World

73%of World

Sources: Bloomberg, Haver, OppenheimerFunds, 12/31/17. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Page 12: Navigating the Changing Tides in Global Growth: Challenges ... Presentations/42618.pdf · MSCI Emerging Markets Index / MSCI World Index Emerging Market Business Activity and Equity

12

Monetary Policy Around the World is Easy

Last Rate Move: Easing or TighteningTightening

Easing

Sources: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve 12/31/17.

Page 13: Navigating the Changing Tides in Global Growth: Challenges ... Presentations/42618.pdf · MSCI Emerging Markets Index / MSCI World Index Emerging Market Business Activity and Equity

13

This is Not 1999Nasdaq: Price to Sales of Top 10 Names by Market Capitalization

Source: FactSet, 12/31/17. Company logos are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. The mention of specific companies does not constitute a recommendation on behalf of any fund or OppenheimerFunds, Inc. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

December 1999 March 2018

27.3

32.0

26.5

9.3

3.9

17.2

5.5

9.2

36.6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40x

3.8 4.37.1

13.2

7.1

3.8 4.72.0 2.5

15.5

11.8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40x190.2

Average: 35.8xMedian: 21.9x

Average: 6.9xMedian: 4.7x

Page 14: Navigating the Changing Tides in Global Growth: Challenges ... Presentations/42618.pdf · MSCI Emerging Markets Index / MSCI World Index Emerging Market Business Activity and Equity

Growth in a Slow Growth World

Page 15: Navigating the Changing Tides in Global Growth: Challenges ... Presentations/42618.pdf · MSCI Emerging Markets Index / MSCI World Index Emerging Market Business Activity and Equity

15

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Recessions Unemployed Workers Job Openings

The Labor Market Is Already TightTotal Unemployment and Job Openings

Cap-ex Cycle Has Already TurnedNonresidential Fixed Investment (% of GDP)

New Higher Trend Growth is Unlikely

Thou

sand

s of

Peo

ple

10.9

12.6

10

11

12

13

14

15%

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018

Perc

ent o

f Gro

ss D

omes

tic P

rodu

ct

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Left chart) and Bureau of Economic Analysis (Right chart), 12/31/17. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Page 16: Navigating the Changing Tides in Global Growth: Challenges ... Presentations/42618.pdf · MSCI Emerging Markets Index / MSCI World Index Emerging Market Business Activity and Equity

16

Finding Growth in a Slow Growth World

Source: Global Insights, Statista Market Analytics, US Telecom Broadband association, UN Population Bureau, Boston Consulting Group, Brookings Institute, international monetary fund 12/31/16. Forecasts may not be achieved. For illustrative purposes only not intended as investment advice.

17.916.7

20.7

4.5

18.5

6.47.6

2.7 2.2

5.7

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

China India United States Eurozone Brazil

Projected Annualized 5 Year GrowthRateProjected Annualized 5 Year GDPGrowth

Data Generation: USA Middle Class Consumption: BrazilAutomobile Sales: IndiaMobile Phones: China Aging Populations: Europe%

Page 17: Navigating the Changing Tides in Global Growth: Challenges ... Presentations/42618.pdf · MSCI Emerging Markets Index / MSCI World Index Emerging Market Business Activity and Equity

Low for Long

Page 18: Navigating the Changing Tides in Global Growth: Challenges ... Presentations/42618.pdf · MSCI Emerging Markets Index / MSCI World Index Emerging Market Business Activity and Equity

18

IMF Gross National Savings as a % of GDP by CountryHighest Savers & U.S. and European Union

Global Household SavingsComparison to Global Market Cap andGlobal Sovereign Debt

1. High Savings Rates Overseas

Source: International Monetary Fund, 2016

Qatar49%

Kuwait45%

China45%

Iran42%

Singapore37%

Saudi Arabia35%

Azerbaijan34%

Oman33%

Norway29%

South Korea29%

UAE28%

Malaysia28%

Japan27%

Indonesia25%

Trilli

ons

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

Global HouseholdSavings

Global MarketCapitalization

Global SovereignDebt

Page 19: Navigating the Changing Tides in Global Growth: Challenges ... Presentations/42618.pdf · MSCI Emerging Markets Index / MSCI World Index Emerging Market Business Activity and Equity

19

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Ethi

opia

Nig

eria

Paki

stan

Philli

ppin

esEg

ypt

Bang

lade

shSo

uth

Afric

aSa

udi A

rabi

aIn

dia

Peru

Mex

ico

Mal

aysi

aIra

nC

olom

bia

Indo

nesi

aVi

etna

mTu

rkey

Arge

ntin

aBr

azil

Chi

leSi

ngap

ore

Irela

ndC

hina

Thai

land

U.S

.Au

stra

liaN

orw

ayR

ussi

aTa

iwan

Pola

ndU

.K.

Fran

ceSo

uth

Kore

aSw

eden

Cze

ch R

epub

licH

unga

ryPo

rtuga

lC

anad

aSw

itzer

land

Spai

nH

ong

Kong

Gre

ece

Italy

Ger

man

yJa

pan

2016 2050

Source: Ned Davis Research, 2016

2. The World is Aging

Page 20: Navigating the Changing Tides in Global Growth: Challenges ... Presentations/42618.pdf · MSCI Emerging Markets Index / MSCI World Index Emerging Market Business Activity and Equity

Case for International Is Strong

Page 21: Navigating the Changing Tides in Global Growth: Challenges ... Presentations/42618.pdf · MSCI Emerging Markets Index / MSCI World Index Emerging Market Business Activity and Equity

21

EM Business Activity Heat MapInflation Falling in Emerging MarketsConsumer Price Index

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Y/Y

Perc

ent C

hang

e

U.S. Consumer Price Index EM Consumer Price Index

Sources: Bloomberg, Haver, Markit, OppenheimerFunds, 11/30/17. Business activity = Composite (manufacturing + services) Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). As shown in left chart, Taiwan and South Korea are displayed with manufacturing PMIs because service PMIs do not exist for those economies.

Above 52 51-52 50-51 47-50 < 47

EM InflationFalling

U.S. Inflation Rising

EM

EM Growth Will Be Stronger and Deeper Than DM Growth

Page 22: Navigating the Changing Tides in Global Growth: Challenges ... Presentations/42618.pdf · MSCI Emerging Markets Index / MSCI World Index Emerging Market Business Activity and Equity

22

Price-to-Sales Ratio:MSCI Emerging Markets Index / MSCI World Index

Emerging Market Business Activity andEquity Returns

Sources: Bloomberg, OppenheimerFunds, 12/31/17. Note: P/S = price-to-sales ratio. Shaded areas denote global all-industry contractions. SD = standard deviation. Seepage 25 for index definitions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8x

Rel

ativ

e P/

S R

atio

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100%

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Year-Over-Year Percent C

hange

Diff

usio

n In

dex

EM Composite PMI (Left-Axis) MSCI EM Index (Right-Axis)

Average

EM rich,DM cheap

EM cheap,DM rich

1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

Expansion

Contraction

CorrelationCoefficient

0.81

EM Equities Will Likely Outperform DM Equities

Page 23: Navigating the Changing Tides in Global Growth: Challenges ... Presentations/42618.pdf · MSCI Emerging Markets Index / MSCI World Index Emerging Market Business Activity and Equity

23

Average Real Yield of Emerging Market 10-Year Bonds EM Local Currency Real Yields

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Perc

ent

Taper Tantrum

First Fed Rate Hike

Source: Bloomberg, 12/31/17. Countries included in the average real yield calculations are India, Russia, China, Mexico, Indonesia, Turkey and Brazil. Real yields are the nominal yield of a country’s sovereign bond minus the year-over-year change in their respective consumer price index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Nominal 10-Year Sovereign Bond RateReal 10-Year Sovereign Bond RateConsumer Price Index Year-over-Year Percent Change

Brazil

Poland

Russia

2.81%7.56%

10.36%

India4.88%

2.26%7.14%

2.00%1.34%

3.34%

2.49%5.05%

7.54%

EM Bonds Will Likely Provide a Better Risk-Return Profile than U.S. Corporates

Page 24: Navigating the Changing Tides in Global Growth: Challenges ... Presentations/42618.pdf · MSCI Emerging Markets Index / MSCI World Index Emerging Market Business Activity and Equity

24

Price-to-Sales Ratio:MSCI Europe Index / MSCI USA Index EU Business Activity and Equity Returns

Sources: Bloomberg, OppenheimerFunds, 12/31/17. Note: P/S = price-to-sales ratio. Shaded areas denote global all-industry contractions. SD = standard deviation. Seepage 25 for index definitions. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Average

Europe rich,U.S. cheap

Europe cheap,U.S. rich

Expansion

Contraction 0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85x

1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019

Rel

ativ

e P/

S R

atio

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100%

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018

Year-Over-Year Percent C

hange

Diff

usio

n In

dex

EU Composite PMI (Left-Axis) MSCI Europe Index (Right-Axis)

European Equities Will Likely Outperform U.S. Equities

Page 25: Navigating the Changing Tides in Global Growth: Challenges ... Presentations/42618.pdf · MSCI Emerging Markets Index / MSCI World Index Emerging Market Business Activity and Equity

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Index DefinitionsThe S&P 500 Index is a market capitalization weighted index of the 500 largest domestic U.S. Stocks.The MSCI World Index is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets and includes the U.S., Eurozone area, Japan and Canada.The MSCI Emerging Market Index is designed to measure the equity market performance of the emerging markets.The Commodity Research Bureau (“CRB”) Raw Commodity Index is designed to measure the price performance of raw input commodities and includes the prices of various metals, textiles and fibers.The MSCI World ex. US Index is designed to measure the performance of developed market equities excluding the United StatesThe MSCI Europe Index is designed to measure the performance of European equity markets.Russell 1000 Value Index is designed to measure the 1,000 largest value stocks in the US stock marketRussell 1000 Growth Index is designed to measure the 1,000 largest growth stocks in the US marketRussell 3000 Value Index is designed to measure all 3,000 value stocks in the US stock marketRussell 3000 Growth Index is designed to measure all 3,000 growth stocks in the US marketThe Russell 2000 Index is designed to measure the performance of domestic small capitalization stocks in the USAGross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measure of all of the goods and services produced within an economy during a year. The Economist Big Mac Index is based on the theory of purchasing-power parity (PPP), the notion that in the long run exchange rates should move towards the rate that would equalize the prices of an identical basket of goods and services (in this case, a burger) in any two countries therefore identifying whether a currency is over or under valued.MSCI EM Currency Index is a measure of a basket of emerging market currencies against the United States dollarMarkit Emerging Markets Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index is designed to measure the relative optimism of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector across all emerging market s and indicates the economic conditions of an economy.The Fed Funds Rate is the benchmark short-term interest rate level set by the Federal Open Market CommitteeIndices are unmanaged and cannot be purchased directly by investors. Index performance is shown for illustrative purposes only and does not predict or depict the performance of any investment. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Page 26: Navigating the Changing Tides in Global Growth: Challenges ... Presentations/42618.pdf · MSCI Emerging Markets Index / MSCI World Index Emerging Market Business Activity and Equity

26

DisclosuresShares of Oppenheimer funds are not deposits or obligations of any bank, are not guaranteed by any bank, are not insured by the FDIC or any other agency, and involve investment risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested.These views represent the opinions of OppenheimerFunds, Inc. and are not intended as investment advice or as a prediction of the performance of any investment. These views are as of the open of business on December 31, 2017, and are subject to change on the basis of subsequent developments.Equities are subject to market risk and volatility; they may gain or lose value. Fixed-income investing entails credit and interest rate risks. Bonds are exposed to credit and interest rate risk. When interest rates rise, bond prices generally fall, and a fund’s share prices can fall. Investments in securities of growth companies may be especially volatile. Foreign investments may be volatile and involve additional expenses and special risks, including currency fluctuations, foreign taxes and geopolitical risks. Emerging and developing markets may be especially volatile. Eurozone investments may be subject to volatility and liquidity issues. The mention of specific countries, regions, or sectors does not constitute a recommendation by any particular fund or by OppenheimerFunds, Inc. This material is provided for general and education purposes only, is not intended to provide legal or tax advice, and is not for use to avoid penalties that may be imposed under U.S. federal tax laws. OppenheimerFunds is not undertaking to provide impartial investment advice or to provide advice in a fiduciary capacity. Contact your attorneyor other advisor regarding your specific legal, investment or tax situation.Before investing in any of the Oppenheimer funds, investors should carefully consider a fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Fund prospectuses and summary prospectuses contain this and other information about the funds, and may be obtained by asking your financial advisor, visiting oppenheimerfunds.com or calling 1 800 CALL OPP (225 5677). Read prospectuses and summary prospectuses carefully before investing.Oppenheimer funds are distributed by OppenheimerFunds Distributor, Inc.225 Liberty Street, New York, NY 10281-1008© 2018 OppenheimerFunds Distributor, Inc. All rights reserved.

December 31, 2017TH0118.001.0118