IAB Webinar hosted by Organic and SAS

Navigating the Cross-Section of Consumer Insights,

Sentiment, & Online Behavior

Jason Harper – OrganicJohn Bejnarowicz – OrganicSuneel Grover – SASVinicius Vivaldi- SAS

Who is Pulte Group?

The Competition

© & ™or ® , Organic, Inc. Confidential. All rights reserved

Is their Marketing Working?

© & ™or ® , Organic, Inc. Confidential. All rights reserved

New Marketing Technique: COBI

Agenda• The Customer Journey• The Digital Landscape• Synthesizing Data Streams• Predicting Success• Lessons Learned• SAS®: Digital Analytics - Best Practices

The Customer JourneyLocation, Location, Location?

Location, Location, and a Lot More• Location

• Price Point

• School District

• Builder

Capturing Builder Consideration

Social Media MonitoringGoogle Insights for Search3rd party web activity

Purchase

Potential New Home Buyers

Upper Funnel (Location)

Middle(Builder

Consideration)

Lower(Prospect)

The Digital Landscape

Searches

Searches

SearchesGoogle Insights For Search

• Visits• Page Views

Website Traffic

• Compete• Alexa• comScore• Quantcast• Hitwise

Website Traffic

• Facebook• Twitter• Blogs

Social Media

• Meltwater• Sysomos• Blog Pulse

Social Media

Synthesizing Data StreamsOrganic’s Consideration of Brand Index (COBI)

COBIAre consumers talking about your brand/company online or virtually?

Are consumers searching for your brand/company online?

COBI is a single measure that captures a brand’s “share of consumer mind” online.

Are consumers visiting your website?

Measures from a range of “virtual” touchpoints give a better measure of overall brand share-of-mind than any single measure.• Direct consumer brand interaction (Website visits, page views)

• Indirect consumer brand interaction (natural Google searches)

• Active consumer participation in brand reputation (social media mentions)

• New home orders were included to give the index a real-world industry metric to combine with the virtual metrics.

Website Visits

Website Page Views

Google Search Index

Social Mentions

New Home Orders*

Positive Social Media Mentions

Multiple Virtual Metrics are Combined to Create an Index

COBI

Data Reduction: the object is to take multiple variables and condense their information into a lesser number of variables while still capturing the monthly swings in the data.

• Principal Components

• Multi Dimensional Scaling

• Factor Analysis

Statistical methodology behind Organic’s COBI is Principal Factor Analysis.

Bringing Multiple Metrics Down to One

1. Determine competitor set

2. Collect data for all competitors from four sources• Web traffic• Social media• Google searches• Builder New Orders (SEC filings)

4. Using shares figures, perform Principal Factor Analysis to generate scoring coefficients for a single factor.

5. Scale the resulting factor scores to range from 0-100

3. Create monthly shares for the data

The COBI Process

Month Builder Site Visits Page Views Google

Index

Total Social

Mentions

Positive Social

Mentions

Net New Sign-ups

(quarterly)

March-10 Beazer 106,893 576,766 9 1,167 196 728 March-10 Centex 61,873 554,456 18 2,491 228 1,823 March-10 DRHorton 145,173 1,580,796 19 931 121 4,037 March-10 Hovnanian 83,707 752,977 8 430 37 961 March-10 KB 110,482 1,194,538 14 6,925 458 1,446 March-10 Lennar 166,992 1,298,694 18 6,540 835 2,652 March-10 Meritage 34,406 353,341 7 232 212 621 March-10 NVR 9,678 38,113 20 348 38 2,000 March-10 Pulte 109,500 525,906 17 2,960 344 1,925 March-10 Richmond 67,327 434,888 6 327 287 637 March-10 Ryland 78,951 395,765 16 802 209 969 March-10 Shea 69,925 755,982 5 427 82 600 March-10 Std_Pacific 45,328 310,553 6 327 32 554 March-10 Taylor 343,610 1,594,489 5 382 68 1,034 March-10 Tollbros 80,750 1,055,578 14 1,551 176 526

Collect Data

How is the Score calculated? – In practice

• Website Visits• Website Page Views• Social Mentions• Positive Social Mentions• New Orders

Month Builder

Monthly Share of

Visits

Monthly Share of

Views Google

Index

Monthly Share of

Social Mentions

Monthly Share of Positive

Social Mentions

Quarterly Share of

Net New Sign-ups

March-10 Beazer 7% 5% 9 5% 6% 4%March-10 Centex 4% 5% 18 10% 7% 9%March-10 DRHorton 10% 14% 19 4% 4% 20%March-10 Hovnanian 6% 7% 8 2% 1% 5%March-10 KB 7% 10% 14 27% 14% 7%March-10 Lennar 11% 11% 18 25% 25% 13%March-10 Meritage 2% 3% 7 1% 6% 3%March-10 NVR 1% 0% 20 1% 1% 10%March-10 Pulte 7% 5% 17 11% 10% 9%March-10 Richmond 4% 4% 6 1% 9% 3%March-10 Ryland 5% 3% 16 3% 6% 5%March-10 Shea 5% 7% 5 2% 2% 3%March-10 Std_Pacific 3% 3% 6 1% 1% 3%March-10 Taylor 23% 14% 5 1% 2% 5%March-10 Tollbros 5% 9% 14 6% 5% 3%

Sums to 100% each month

Calculate “Monthly Shares” for:

How is the Score calculated? – In practice

Utilize Principal Factor Analysis to create scoring coefficients, then input the data values into the resulting equation:

COBI Score = 27.7 + 81.5 * (Share of Visits) + 69.5 * (Share of Page Views)+0.265 * (Google Search Index) + 44.8 * (Share of Total Social Mentions)+25.3 * (Share of Positive Social Mentions) + 47.2 * (Share of Net New Sign ups)

How is the Score calculated? – In practice

Pulte COBI

Predicting Success…For the Competition Too?

…and thus, we now have a way to track how our competitors are doing as well.

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

50

60

70

80Jan

-08

Feb-0

8

Mar

-08

Apr-0

8

May

-08

Jun-08

Jul-08

Aug-0

8

Sep-0

8

Oct -0

8

Nov-0

8

Dec-0

8

Jan-09

Feb-0

9

Mar

-09

Apr-0

9

May

-09

Jun-09

Jul-09

Aug-0

9

Sep-0

9

Oct-0

9

Nov-0

9

Dec-0

9

Jan-10

Feb-1

0

Mar

-10

Cons

idera

tion

Scor

e

Pulte

Prospects

Correlation = 88%

COBI was found to closely track with Pulte’s “Prospect” sign-ups

Lessons LearnedNot All Press is Good Press

Fairly well

Social media has been a strength for one top competitor in the past year, and other measures are showing similar signs.

One top competitor is increasing investments in social media presence… how is that strategy working for them?

Not much

The sweepstakes created a short-term bump in web traffic that disappeared when the sweepstakes did. No other digital metrics improved.

A competitor is running a “free home” sweepstakes… how has that tactic increased their consideration with consumers?

Yes.

This competitors scores are lower than their market share might dictate, even though there is no direct way in the COBI score that measures “bad press”.

A competitor has been receiving “bad press” in some markets… does this show up in lower consideration?

SAS®: Digital Analytics –Best Practices

Unstructured Data Sources

Data Management

Capturing & Storing Unstructured Data• How to collect the data?

• Leveraging Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) and RSS feeds• Ability to crawl the Internet

• Storing the data• Capability of storing the data for

both short and long term views• Accessing databases

• Native access engines vs. ODBC connections

Data Cleansing• Unstructured data, in the form of text, when captured, presents its

own level of data management challenges– Being able to correctly structure the data and clean it is a priority

– Technology needs to have the ability to: » Eliminate irrelevant information

» Quantity ≠ Quality

• Miss-spelings

• Treat acronyms and abbreviations (e.g. “LOL”)

• Pr☺f@nity

• *Punctuation*

Sentiment Analysis• The action of identifying the expressed sentiments by customers, partners,

suppliers and employees• Typically categorized into three levels

– Polarity indicator: Positive, negative, neutral

• Why is it important to measure sentiment?• Public perception of brand, product, and/or service

• Traditional Methodologies• Statistical• Rules-based• Traditional methodologies typically use one or

the other– Common issues with measuring polarity accurately– Hybrid approach advantages

• Overall vs. granular/feature-level sentiment

Good, but a little outdated. I bought the Nikon Coolpix L10 as my first digital compact P&S camera. I had it for a couple of weeks, until mine had a 'lens error' that basically made the camera inoperable (it was stuck open). It might've been due to batteries running low, but I tried another set (which I now think was also low).

The picture quality from the L10 was very good, a bit of barrel distortion was noticed in the wide angle and shooting tall skyscrapers (noticed by the curve along the side of the frame where the buildings are supposed to be straight).Another gripe I had with the camera was how slow the auto-focus was. It would basically go through the whole range of focus every time I pressed the shutter half-way and then some. This became more annoying the more I used it.

Eventually a lot of my pictures came out blurry, including outdoor overcast days with 3x optical zoom. Basically anytime there's zoom & less than ideal lighting, I would have to have rock steady hands to get non-blurry pictures. Overall it's a good camera if you can overlook the issues I mentioned.

Product: Nikon Coolpix L10, Polarity: mixedFeature: Picture Quality, Polarity: positive

Feature: Autofocus, Polarity: negative

Overall vs. Granular/Feature-level Sentiment

Unstructured Data Mining & Forecasting• How does an organization proactively identify new topics, new terms, and

new information being generated by the consumer?• Unstructured data mining

– Let the data speak for itself– Develop an early warning or indication system– Raise awareness of forthcoming topic trends

• Forecasting can help• Predict a topic reaching a significant threshold and proactively act on this

information– Marketing applications

» Defend and manage against brand-inhibiting events

» Understand and act with intelligence during a new product/service launch

» Augment Net Promoter Score strategies

For More Information…

• Jason Harper – Organic• jharper@organic.com

• John Bejnarowicz – Organic• jbejnaro@organic.com

• Vinicius Vivaldi (SAS®)• Vinicius.Vivaldi@sas.com

• Suneel Grover (SAS®)• Suneel.Grover@sas.com

Thank You.

Questions

• Please type your questions into the chat feature on the upper-right corner of your screen.

Upcoming Member Events• Educational Webinars

– Compliance with IAB’s New Member Code of Conduct, July 27th @12 Noon EST

• Professional Development Classes– Essentials of the Digital Marketing Ecosystem, August 4th, NYC – Professional Presentations: Turn Information into a Story That

Sells, August 9th, NYC – On-demand training classes also available @ iab.net

• Conferences– Mobile: IAB Marketplace, July 18, NYC– MIXX Conference, Expo, & Awards, October 3-4, NYC– Ad Operations Summit, November 7, NYC