navigating uncertainty through data
DESCRIPTION
Navigating Uncertainty through Data. Navigate a Black Swan or Coconut Uncertainty environment using digital data resources. The keys to navigating a rapidly evolving digital landscape is to successfully measure, gain insights from the wisdom of the crowd, hypothesize, test, rinse, and repeat.TRANSCRIPT
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Vinoaj Vijeyakumaar
@vinoaj
vnjv.co/vvgplus
vnjv.co/vvlinkedin
Navigating Uncertainty
through Data
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About this presentation
• Presented at the Google INSEAD CMO Academy.
• Presented on Wed 25 Sep 2012 at INSEAD (Singapore campus).
• PDF copy available at http://vnjv.co/cmoacad
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The Internet is a Black Swan
Source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/ecstaticist/5697878837/sizes/l/
Speaker Notes • Black Swan events: high-impact, hard-to-predict,
and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance and technology (Nassim Nicholas Taleb)
• In the context of 20 years ago the Internet is a Black Swan.
• In 2012 the Internet is still a Black Swan. Innovation and disruption is far from over.
• The question is, how do you navigate the ripples of this uncertain medium and its users?
• One approach: data & insights
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Speaker Notes • The marketing technology landscape is
overwhelming.
• Lots of disjointed tools leads to data silos that spit out confusing and sometimes contradicting metrics and data.
• Marketers & product managers are floundering in a deluge of data.
• The challenge to you is to look at the data holistically, ignore the noise, cut out the unnecessary metrics & dimensions, and most of all to glean meaningful insights.
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Framework for Succeeding Online
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• Vinny
• 2012 - Chief Consultant /
Founder – Sparkline Analytics
• 2007-12 – Senior Conversion Specialist, Google Southeast Asia
Sparkline Analytics
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Digital Analytics Framework
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Can you know it all?
“ [T]here are known knowns; there are things we
know that we know.
There are known unknowns; that is to say there are things that, we now know we don't know.
But there are also unknown unknowns – there are things we do not know we don't know
” United States Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld (Feb 2002)
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Can you know it all?
“ [T]here are known knowns; there are things we
know that we know.
There are known unknowns; that is to say there are things that, we now know we don't know.
But there are also unknown unknowns – there are things we do not know we don't know.
” United States Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld (Feb 2002)
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Can you know it all?
“ [T]here are known knowns; there are things we
know that we know.
There are known unknowns; that is to say there are things that, we now know we don't know.
But there are also unknown unknowns – there are things we do not know we don't know.
” United States Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld (Feb 2002)
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Can you know it all?
“ [T]here are known knowns; there are things we
know that we know.
There are known unknowns; that is to say there are things that, we now know we don't know.
But there are also unknown unknowns – there are things we do not know we don't know.
” United States Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld (Feb 2002)
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Google Analytics Intelligence Events
Speaker Notes • Google Analytics (GA) Intelligence Events aim to
surface the unknown unknowns for your business through your web analytics data.
• Constantly monitors your data and alerts you whenever there are any significant changes (+ve or –ve).
• Highlights specific areas to focus on and investigate.
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Google Analytics Intelligence Events
Speaker Notes • Case Study: Shoes of Prey
• Download full case study at http://vnjv.co/sopgaia
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“We constantly monitor the Intelligence Alerts reports to look for unusual spikes in overnight traffic from referring sites … Since the web moves at light speed, we want to ensure that we are speaking to people writing about us as soon as they publish and not a week or two later – because that’s the equivalent of two months in web time!”
Michael Fox, Co-Founder & Director of Operations, Shoes of Prey
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Speaker Notes • A spike in intelligence alerts with an unexpected
surge in traffic from referrals.
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Speaker Notes • Analyzing the referrals, Shoes of Prey saw a surge in
traffic from polkadotbride.com
• Engagement from that source is also pretty healthy. High time on site and pages/visit.
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10% increase in sales
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10% increase in sales
Speaker Notes “We knew that their [Polka Dot Bride’s] audience would be receptive and it was a natural choice to partner with them,” he says. “Together we ran a competition for their readers to design and win a pair of wedding shoes on Shoes of Prey. This helped kick-start the launch of our range of wedding shoes, and we’re seeing great sales as a result.” Michael credits the 10% uplift in sales following the release of the new wedding shoe range to this intelligent approach.
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“So much happens around us that we don’t always know, and Intelligence Alerts allows us to become aware of these ‘unknown unknowns’ and make sure we’re responding effectively.” Michael Fox, Co-Founder & Director of
Operations, Shoes of Prey
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Digital Analytics Framework
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Speaker Notes • Every search conducted on a search engine is a
signal of intent.
• Thus the stored search query history for a search engine can be viewed as a “database of intentions” (term credited to John Battelle).
• Querying this database can reveal powerful insights into what is top of mind right now and how preferences & tastes change over time.
• One such database: Google Insights for Search.
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Speaker Notes • Use Insights for Search to see if there are subtle
changes in trends.
• Here is an example looking at whether people search for 5-, 4-, or 3-star hotels more.
• What’s interesting to see is that while search volumes for 3-star hotels have remained steady in the last 8 years, queries for 5- and 4-star hotels are starting to decline.
• What next? Find out why. Interview your users. Observe behaviour. Modify strategy. Test & learn.
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Speaker Notes • It’s interesting to see that in 2 of the top 10 markets
– India & Malaysia – searches for 3-star hotels exceed searches for 4-star hotels.
• Related & rising terms can provide further insights (e.g. particular interest in Delhi).
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Speaker Notes • Search query volumes can often be a predictor for
real-world events.
• For example, strong correlation between search terms related to flu symptoms and flu outbreaks.
• Google.org’s Flu Trends tool aims to estimate flu activity in a country by analyzing flu-related search term volumes.
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Social Listening & Predictions
• Evaluated Tweets & conversations to predict trades • Outperformed other strategies by 1.4-11% • Outperformed the Dow Jones Industrial Average
http://vnjv.co/Sj5djk
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Speaker Notes • While Insights for Search & social listening is great
for understanding overall consumer intent, don’t forget to also speak to your own customers.
• Speaking to your users no longer needs to be painful or expensive to set up.
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On-Site Surveys
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On-Site Surveys
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On-Site Surveys
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Off-Site Surveys
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User Testing
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User Testing
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User Testing
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Digital Analytics Framework
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Digital Analytics Framework
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A/B/Multivariate Testing
• Democratize creativity • Take the HiPPO out of the equation
Speaker Notes • HiPPO = Highest Paid Person’s Opinion
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On-Site Testing – A or B?
A
B
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On-Site Testing
B
15% increase in clicks
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Digital Analytics Framework
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Thoughts for Tomorrow
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Getting on the Big Data Bandwagon
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46
Digital information in the world –"videos, photos, music, text, etc.
800 exabytes 2010
2020 53 zettabytes
Exponential Data Growth
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Exponential Data Growth
Source: unknown
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Source: http://www.capgemini.com/technology-blog/2012/09/big-data-vendors-technologies/
Getting on the Big Data Bandwagon
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What’s different about Big Data?
• You don’t have to be stuck with a pre-defined database schema (~ give up control). • Databases are no longer rows & columns –
rather, they are networks of objects. • Data is not rows in a table – they are objects
with attributes that can evolve over time. • Run ad-hoc queries over large datasets in quick
time.
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Big Data: Easy to get started with minimal costs
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Is the CMO’s Successor the “Chief Growth Officer”?
• Recommended reading: http://vnjv.co/Sjbjjq
• The marketer’s job is to get more users.
• Leverage large platforms (e.g. Facebook, iOS) to scale rapidly.
• Your marketer also needs to be an “engineer” in order to exploit these platforms.
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Vinoaj Vijeyakumaar
@vinoaj
vnjv.co/vvgplus
vnjv.co/vvlinkedin
Q&A