nbj’s nutritional raw material & ingredient supply reportnbj’s healthy foods report 2010 an...

NBJ’s Healthy Foods Report

2010 An analysis of markets and trends in the U.S. healthy food markets including natural, organic, functional, and lesser-evil foods

NBJ’s 2010 Healthy Foods Report

2 www.nutritionbusinessjournal.com ©2010 Penton Media

Table of Contents

©2010 Penton Media www.nutritionbusinessjournal.com 3

2.1. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ................................................................................................................................................... 19 2.2. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................................................. 19

2.2.1. Basic Methodology .......................................................................................................................................... 19 2.2.2. Disclaimer ........................................................................................................................................................ 20 2.2.3. Copyright ......................................................................................................................................................... 20

2.3. DEFINITIONS ................................................................................................................................................................. 20 2.3.1. Product Categories .......................................................................................................................................... 20 2.3.2. Sales Channels ................................................................................................................................................. 22

3.1. U.S. TOTAL FOOD MARKET ............................................................................................................................................. 23 3.2. HEALTHY FOOD MARKET ................................................................................................................................................ 25 3.3. HEALTHY FOODS VS. TOTAL FOODS ................................................................................................................................... 30 3.4. HEALTHY FOODS VS. NUTRITION INDUSTRY ........................................................................................................................ 32 3.5. HEALTHY FOODS PRODUCT CATEGORY SALES...................................................................................................................... 33

3.5.1. Dairy ................................................................................................................................................................ 33 3.5.2. Fruits & Vegetables .......................................................................................................................................... 36 3.5.3. Breads & Grains ............................................................................................................................................... 39 3.5.4. Meat, Fish & Poultry ........................................................................................................................................ 42 3.5.5. Beverages ........................................................................................................................................................ 45 3.5.6. Snack Foods ..................................................................................................................................................... 47 3.5.7. Packaged & Prepared Foods ............................................................................................................................ 50 3.5.8. Condiments ...................................................................................................................................................... 53

3.6. TRENDS & CASE STUDIES ................................................................................................................................................ 56 3.6.1. Trend: Medical Foods Boom Along with Baby Boomers .................................................................................. 56 3.6.2. Trend: Marketing to Kids ................................................................................................................................. 57

4.1. MARKET OVERVIEW ....................................................................................................................................................... 61 4.1.1. Sales & Growth ................................................................................................................................................ 61 4.1.2. Channels .......................................................................................................................................................... 66 4.1.3. Forecast ........................................................................................................................................................... 68

4.2. PRODUCT CATEGORIES ................................................................................................................................................... 72 4.2.1. Dairy ................................................................................................................................................................ 72 4.2.2. Breads & Grains ............................................................................................................................................... 76 4.2.3. Beverages ........................................................................................................................................................ 81 4.2.4. Snack Foods ..................................................................................................................................................... 86 4.2.5. Packaged & Prepared Foods ............................................................................................................................ 90 4.2.6. Condiments ...................................................................................................................................................... 94

4.3. TRENDS & CASE STUDIES ................................................................................................................................................ 98 4.3.1. Desire for Health & Wellness Helping Drive Functional Sales .......................................................................... 98 4.3.2. Value Still Top of Mind for Consumers ............................................................................................................. 98 4.3.3. Functional Product Innovation Persists ........................................................................................................... 99 4.3.4. Trend: Top 10 Functional Trends for 2010 ..................................................................................................... 100 4.3.5. Case Study: Functional Failure Rate High ...................................................................................................... 103 4.3.1. Case Study: GRAS Status Helps Drive New Sales ........................................................................................... 103



4.3.2. Case Study: Consumers Still Buying Based on Taste ...................................................................................... 104 4.3.3. Case Study: Demand Grows for Research-Backed Ingredients ...................................................................... 104 4.3.4. Trend: Low Functional Nutrient Dosage Levels Eating Into Consumer Confidence ....................................... 105 4.3.5. Case Study: European Union’s Health Claims Legislation Has Implications for U.S. Market ......................... 109 4.3.6. Case Study: Functional Firms Search for the World’s Next Big Super Fruit .................................................... 112 4.3.7. Case Study: World Looks to Spain as Leader in Global Functional Food Market ........................................... 114 4.3.8. Case Study: Former Nestle Exec Says Bad Claims Hurting Industry ............................................................... 117 4.3.9. Probiotic and Prebiotic Foods and Beverages Take Root in the U.S. Once and For All .................................. 119

5.1. MARKET OVERVIEW ..................................................................................................................................................... 125 5.1.1. Sales & Growth .............................................................................................................................................. 125 5.1.2. Channels ........................................................................................................................................................ 129 5.1.3. Forecast ......................................................................................................................................................... 131

5.2. PRODUCT CATEGORIES ................................................................................................................................................. 134 5.2.1. Dairy .............................................................................................................................................................. 134 5.2.2. Fruits & Vegetables ........................................................................................................................................ 138 5.2.3. Breads & Grains ............................................................................................................................................. 142 5.2.4. Meat, Fish & Poultry ...................................................................................................................................... 146 5.2.5. Beverages ...................................................................................................................................................... 150 5.2.6. Snack Foods ................................................................................................................................................... 155 5.2.7. Packaged & Prepared Foods .......................................................................................................................... 159 5.2.1. Condiments .................................................................................................................................................... 163

5.3. TRENDS & CASE STUDIES .............................................................................................................................................. 167 5.3.1. Tree of Life Purchase Alters Distribution Landscape for Natural & Organic .................................................. 167 5.3.2. Case Study: Consumers Confused Over Natural vs. Organic Food Distinctions ............................................. 168 5.3.3. Trend: A New Naturals Consumer ................................................................................................................. 169 5.3.4. Case Study: Natural Sweeteners Emerge as Viable Sugar Alternative .......................................................... 171 5.3.5. Case Study: Self-Affirmed GRAS Strategies Help Stevia Gain Foothold ......................................................... 172 5.3.6. Case Study: Dreamerz All-Natural Food- and Drink-Based Sleep Aids Finding Success ................................. 174

6.1. MARKET OVERVIEW ..................................................................................................................................................... 177 6.1.1. Sales & Growth .............................................................................................................................................. 177 6.1.2. Channels ........................................................................................................................................................ 181 6.1.3. Forecast ......................................................................................................................................................... 182


6.3. TRENDS & CASE STUDIES .............................................................................................................................................. 224 6.3.1. Case Study: Companies Shunning Organic for Less Expensive Natural Products ........................................... 224 6.3.2. Case Study: Dean Foods Reports Organic Milk Sales “Sluggish,” Fourth Quarter Sales Loss ......................... 226 6.3.3. Case Study: Organic Industry Must Work Harder to Promote Benefits, Dispell Myths .................................. 226 6.3.4. Trend: Organic Product Launches Down ........................................................................................................ 226 6.3.5. Trend: Report Shows Consumers Savvy About Organics ............................................................................... 227 6.3.6. Case Study: U.S., Canadian Organic Deal Could Pave Way for Global Equivalency ....................................... 227 6.3.7. Case Study: Differences Between Canadian & U.S. Organic Standards ......................................................... 230

Table of Contents


6.3.8. Trend: Organic Packaged Salad Sales Outpacing Conventional .................................................................... 231 6.3.9. Case Study: Green, Green Wine ..................................................................................................................... 233 6.3.10. Scientific Support for Organic Mounts ........................................................................................................... 234 6.3.11. Case Study: Signs of Recovery Abound .......................................................................................................... 235 6.3.12. Trend: Price Premiums Still an Issue for Organic ........................................................................................... 235

7.1. MARKET OVERVIEW ..................................................................................................................................................... 237 7.1.1. Sales & Growth .............................................................................................................................................. 237 7.1.2. Dietary Categories ......................................................................................................................................... 242 7.1.3. Forecast ......................................................................................................................................................... 244


7.3. TRENDS & CASE STUDIES .............................................................................................................................................. 282 7.3.1. Trend: Gluten-Free Foods Continue to Reign as Fastest-Growing U.S. Grocery Category ............................. 282 7.3.2. Trend: Sweet Developments in Healthy Foods and Beverages for Children .................................................. 286 7.3.3. Trend: Natural Sweeteners Start Taking Bites Out of Artificial ..................................................................... 287 7.3.1. Trend: GMA Announces Move Toward Healthier Foods ................................................................................ 290 7.3.2. Case Study: Making Cakes Worth Their Salt .................................................................................................. 291 7.3.3. Case Study: EPA Takes Action Against “Chemical of Concern” Bisphenol A .................................................. 292



Figure 1-1 U.S. Total Healthy Food Sales by Product, 2009 .................................................................................... 17 Figure 3-1 U.S. Total Food Sales by Product, 2009 .................................................................................................. 23 Figure 3-2 U.S. Total Food Sales & Growth, 2000-2017e ........................................................................................ 24 Figure 3-3 U.S. Total Food Sales by Category, 2000-2009 ....................................................................................... 24 Figure 3-4 U.S. Total Food Sales by Category, 2010e-2017e ................................................................................... 25 Figure 3-5 U.S. Total Healthy Food Sales by Product, 2009 .................................................................................... 25 Figure 3-6 U.S. Healthy Food Sales by Product , 2000-2009 ................................................................................... 26 Figure 3-7 U.S. Healthy Food Sales Growth by Product, 2000-2009 ....................................................................... 26 Figure 3-8 U.S. Healthy Food Sales by Product as % of Total, 2000-2009 ............................................................... 26 Figure 3-9 U.S. Healthy Food Sales Growth by Product, 2009 ................................................................................ 27 Figure 3-10 U.S. Healthy Food Sales & Growth, 2000-2017e .................................................................................. 28 Figure 3-11 U.S. Healthy Food Sales by Product, 2010e-2017e .............................................................................. 28 Figure 3-12 U.S. Healthy Food Sales Growth by Product, 2010e-2017e ................................................................. 29 Figure 3-13 U.S. Healthy Food Sales by Product as % of Total, 2010e-2017e ......................................................... 29 Figure 3-14 U.S. Healthy Foods Estimated Compound Annual Sales Growth, 2010e-2017e .................................. 30 Figure 3-15 U.S. Healthy Food vs. Total Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 .................................... 30 Figure 3-16 U.S. Healthy Food vs. Total Food Sales Growth, 2000-2017e .............................................................. 31 Figure 3-17 U.S. Healthy Food vs. Total Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010e-2017e ................................ 31 Figure 3-18 U.S. Healthy Food vs. Nutrition Industry Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ........................ 32 Figure 3-19 U.S. Healthy Food vs. Nutrition Industry Sales Growth, 2000-2017e .................................................. 32 Figure 3-20 U.S. Healthy Dairy Sales by Product Category, 2009 ............................................................................ 33 Figure 3-21 U.S. Healthy Dairy Sales by Product Category, 2000-2009 .................................................................. 33 Figure 3-22 U.S. Healthy Dairy Sales Growth by Product Category, 2000-2009 ..................................................... 34 Figure 3-23 U.S. Healthy Dairy Sales & Growth, 2000-2017e ................................................................................. 34 Figure 3-24 U.S. Healthy Dairy Sales by Product Category, 2010e-2017e .............................................................. 35 Figure 3-25 U.S. Healthy Dairy Sales Growth by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ................................................. 35 Figure 3-26 U.S. Healthy Fruits & Vegetables Sales by Product Category, 2009 ..................................................... 36 Figure 3-27 U.S. Healthy Fruits & Vegetables Sales by Product Category, 2000-2009 ........................................... 36 Figure 3-28 U.S. Healthy Fruits & Vegetables Sales Growth by Product Category, 2000-2009 .............................. 37 Figure 3-29 U.S. Healthy Fruits & Vegetables Sales & Growth, 2000-2017e .......................................................... 37 Figure 3-30 U.S. Healthy Fruits & Vegetables Sales by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ....................................... 38 Figure 3-31 U.S. Healthy Fruits & Vegetables Sales Growth by Product Category, 2010e-2017e .......................... 38 Figure 3-32 U.S. Healthy Breads & Grains Sales by Product Category, 2009 .......................................................... 39 Figure 3-33 U.S. Healthy Breads & Grains Sales by Product Category, 2000-2009 ................................................. 39 Figure 3-34 U.S. Healthy Breads & Grains Sales Growth by Product Category, 2000-2009 .................................... 40 Figure 3-35 U.S. Healthy Breads & Grains Sales & Growth, 2000-2017e ................................................................ 40 Figure 3-36 U.S. Healthy Breads & Grains Sales by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ............................................. 41 Figure 3-37 U.S. Healthy Breads & Grains Sales Growth by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ................................ 41 Figure 3-38 U.S. Healthy Meat, Fish & Poultry Sales by Product Category, 2009 ................................................... 42 Figure 3-39 U.S. Healthy Meat, Fish & Poultry Sales by Product Category, 2000-2009 .......................................... 42 Figure 3-40 U.S. Healthy Meat, Fish & Poultry Sales Growth by Product Category, 2000-2009............................. 43 Figure 3-41 U.S. Healthy Meat, Fish & Poultry Sales & Growth, 2000-2017e ......................................................... 43 Figure 3-42 U.S. Healthy Meat, Fish & Poultry Sales by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ...................................... 44 Figure 3-43 U.S. Healthy Meat, Fish & Poultry Sales Growth by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ......................... 44 Figure 3-44 U.S. Healthy Beverage Sales by Product Category, 2009 ..................................................................... 45

Index of Figures


Figure 3-45 U.S. Healthy Beverage Sales by Product Category, 2000-2009 ............................................................ 45 Figure 3-46 U.S. Healthy Beverage Sales Growth by Product Category, 2000-2009 ............................................... 46 Figure 3-47 U.S. Healthy Beverage Sales & Growth, 2000-2017e ........................................................................... 46 Figure 3-48 U.S. Healthy Beverage sales by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ........................................................ 46 Figure 3-49 U.S. Healthy Beverage sales Growth by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ........................................... 47 Figure 3-50 U.S. Healthy Snack Food Sales by Product Category, 2009 .................................................................. 47 Figure 3-51 U.S. Healthy Snack Food Sales by Product Category, 2000-2009 ........................................................ 48 Figure 3-52 U.S. Healthy Snack Food Sales Growth by Product Category, 2000-2009 ........................................... 48 Figure 3-53 U.S. Healthy Snack Food Sales & Growth, 2000-2017e ........................................................................ 49 Figure 3-54 U.S. Healthy Snack Food Sales by Product Category, 2010e-2017e .................................................... 49 Figure 3-55 U.S. Healthy Snack Food Sales Growth by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ....................................... 50 Figure 3-56 U.S. Healthy Packaged & Prepared Food Sales by Product Category, 2009 ........................................ 50 Figure 3-57 U.S. Healthy Packaged & Prepared Food Sales by Product Category, 2000-2009 ............................... 51 Figure 3-58 U.S. Healthy Packaged & Prepared Food Sales Growth by Product Category, 2000-2009 .................. 51 Figure 3-59 U.S. Healthy Packaged & Prepared Food Sales & Growth, 2000-2017e .............................................. 52 Figure 3-60 U.S. Healthy Packaged & Prepared Food Sales by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ........................... 52 Figure 3-61 U.S. Healthy Packaged & Prepared Food Sales Growth by Product Category, 2010e-2017e .............. 53 Figure 3-62 U.S. Healthy Condiments Sales by Product Category, 2009 ................................................................. 53 Figure 3-63 U.S. Healthy Condiments Sales by Product Category, 2000-2009 ....................................................... 53 Figure 3-64 U.S. Healthy Condiments Sales Growth by Product Category, 2000-2009 .......................................... 54 Figure 3-65 U.S. Healthy Condiments Sales & Growth, 2000-2017e ...................................................................... 55 Figure 3-66 U.S. Healthy Condiments Sales by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ................................................... 55 Figure 3-67 U.S. Healthy Condiments Sales Growth by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ...................................... 56 Figure 4-1 U.S. Total Functional Food Sales by Product, 2009 ................................................................................ 61 Figure 4-2 U.S. Functional Food Sales & Growth, 1997-2009 ................................................................................. 62 Figure 4-3 U.S. Functional Food vs. Total Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ................................. 62 Figure 4-4 U.S. Functional Food vs. Healthy Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ............................. 63 Figure 4-5 U.S. Functional Food Sales by Category, 2000-2009 .............................................................................. 63 Figure 4-6 U.S. Functional Food Sales Growth by Category, 2000-2009 ................................................................. 64 Figure 4-7 U.S. Functional Foods Categories as % of Total Functional Foods, 2000-2009 ...................................... 64 Figure 4-8 U.S. Functional Foods Annual Growth by Product, 2009 ....................................................................... 65 Figure 4-9 U.S. Functional Food Sales by Channel, 2009......................................................................................... 66 Figure 4-10 U.S. Functional Foods Compound Annual Growth Rate by Channel, 2000-2009 ................................ 67 Figure 4-11 U.S. Functional Food Sales & Growth Forecast 2000-2017e ................................................................ 68 Figure 4-12 U.S. Functional Foods Compound Annual Growth Rate by Product, 2010e-2017e ............................. 69 Figure 4-13 U.S. Functional Food Sales by Category, 2010e-2017e ........................................................................ 70 Figure 4-14 U.S. Functional Food Sales Growth by Category, 2010e-2017e ........................................................... 70 Figure 4-15 U.S. Functional Foods Categories as % of Total Functional Foods, 2010e-2017e ................................ 71 Figure 4-16 U.S. Total Functional Dairy Sales by Product, 2009.............................................................................. 72 Figure 4-17 U.S. Functional Dairy vs. Total Functional Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ............. 72 Figure 4-18 U.S. Functional Dairy vs. Total Dairy Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ............................... 73 Figure 4-19 U.S. Functional Dairy Sales by Product Category, 2000-2009 .............................................................. 73 Figure 4-20 U.S. Functional Dairy Sales Growth by Product Category, 2000-2009 ................................................. 73 Figure 4-21 U.S. Functional Dairy Sales & Growth, 2000-2017e ............................................................................. 74 Figure 4-22 U.S. Functional Dairy vs. Total Functional Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010e-2017e ......... 74 Figure 4-23 U.S. Functional Dairy vs. Total Dairy Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010-2017e ............................. 75 Figure 4-24 U.S. Functional Dairy Sales by Product Category, 2010e-2017e .......................................................... 75



Figure 4-25 U.S. Functional Dairy Sales Growth by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ............................................. 75 Figure 4-26 U.S. Total Functional Breads & Grains Sales by Product, 2009 ............................................................ 76 Figure 4-27 U.S. Functional Breads & Grains vs. Total Functional Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ................................................................................................................................................................................. 76 Figure 4-28 U.S. Functional Breads & Grains vs. Total Breads & Grains Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ................................................................................................................................................................................. 77 Figure 4-29 U.S. Functional Breads & Grains Sales by Product Category, 2000-2009 ............................................ 77 Figure 4-30 U.S. Functional Breads & Grains Sales Growth by Product Category, 2000-2009 ............................... 78 Figure 4-31 U.S. Functional Breads & Grains Sales & Growth, 2000-2017e ........................................................... 78 Figure 4-32 U.S. Functional Breads & Grains vs. Total Functional Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010e-2017e ....................................................................................................................................................................... 79 Figure 4-33 U.S. Functional Breads & Grains vs. Total Breads & Grains Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010-2017e ....................................................................................................................................................................... 79 Figure 4-34 U.S. Functional Breads & Grains Sales by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ........................................ 80 Figure 4-35 U.S. Functional Breads & Grains Sales Growth by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ........................... 80 Figure 4-36 U.S. Total Functional Beverage sales by Product, 2009 ....................................................................... 81 Figure 4-37 U.S. Functional Beverages vs. Total Functional Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ..... 81 Figure 4-38 U.S. Functional Beverages vs. Total Beverage Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ................ 82 Figure 4-39 U.S. Functional Beverage sales by Product Category, 2000-2009........................................................ 82 Figure 4-40 U.S. Functional Beverage sales Growth by Product Category, 2000-2009 .......................................... 83 Figure 4-41 U.S. Functional Beverage sales & Growth, 2000-2017e ....................................................................... 83 Figure 4-42 U.S. Functional Beverages vs. Total Functional Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010e-2017e . 84 Figure 4-43 U.S. Functional Beverages vs. Total Beverage Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010-2017e .............. 84 Figure 4-44 U.S. Functional Beverage Sales by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ................................................... 85 Figure 4-45 U.S. Functional Beverage Sales Growth by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ...................................... 85 Figure 4-46 U.S. Total Functional Snack Food Sales & Growth by Product, 2009 ................................................... 86 Figure 4-47 U.S. Functional Snacks vs. Total Functional Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ........... 86 Figure 4-48 U.S. Functional Snacks vs. Total Snack Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 .................. 87 Figure 4-49 U.S. Functional Snack Sales by Product Category, 2000-2009 ............................................................. 87 Figure 4-50 U.S. Functional Snack Sales Growth by Product Category, 2000-2009 ................................................ 87 Figure 4-51 U.S. Functional Snacks Sales & Growth, 2000-2017e ........................................................................... 88 Figure 4-52 U.S. Functional Snacks vs. Total Functional Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010e-2017e ....... 88 Figure 4-53 U.S. Functional Snacks vs. Total Snack Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010-2017e ................ 89 Figure 4-54 U.S. Functional Snack Sales by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ......................................................... 89 Figure 4-55 U.S. Functional Snack Sales Growth by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ............................................ 89 Figure 4-56 U.S. Total Functional Packaged & Prepared Sales by Product, 2009 ................................................... 90 Figure 4-57 U.S. Functional Packaged & Prepared vs. Total Functional Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ......................................................................................................................................................................... 90 Figure 4-58 U.S. Functional vs. Total Packaged &Prepared Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ...... 91 Figure 4-59 U.S. Functional Packaged & Prepared Food Sales by Product Category, 2000-2009 ........................... 91 Figure 4-60 U.S. Functional Packaged & Prepared Food Sales Growth by Product Category, 2000-2009 ............ 92 Figure 4-61 U.S. Functional Packaged & Prepared Food Sales & Growth, 2000-2017e ......................................... 92 Figure 4-62 U.S. Functional Packaged & Prepared vs. Total Functional Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010e-2017e ............................................................................................................................................................ 93 Figure 4-63 U.S. Functional Packaged & Prepared vs. Total Packaged/Prep Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010-2017e ....................................................................................................................................................................... 93 Figure 4-64 U.S. Functional Packaged & Prepared Food Sales by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ....................... 93 Figure 4-65 U.S. Functional Packaged & Prepared Food Sales Growth by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ......... 94

Index of Figures


Figure 4-66 U.S. Total Functional Condiments Sales by Product, 2009................................................................... 94 Figure 4-67 U.S. Functional Condiments vs. Total Functional Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 .. 95 Figure 4-68 U.S. Functional Condiments vs. Total Condiments Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ......... 95 Figure 4-69 U.S. Functional Condiments Sales by Product Category, 2000-2009 ................................................... 95 Figure 4-70 U.S. Functional Condiments Sales Growth by Product Category, 2000-2009 ..................................... 96 Figure 4-71 U.S. Functional Condiments Sales & Growth, 2000-2017e .................................................................. 96 Figure 4-72 U.S. Functional Condiments vs. Total Functional Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010e-2017e ................................................................................................................................................................................. 97 Figure 4-73 U.S. Functional Condiments vs. Total Condiment Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010-2017e ........ 97 Figure 4-74 U.S. Functional Condiment Sales by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ................................................ 97 Figure 4-75 U.S. Functional Condiment Sales Growth by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ................................... 98 Figure 5-1 U.S. Total Natural Food Sales by Product, 2009 ................................................................................... 125 Figure 5-2 U.S. Natural Food Sales & Growth, 2000-2009 .................................................................................... 126 Figure 5-3 U.S. Natural Food vs. Total Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 .................................... 126 Figure 5-4 U.S. Natural Food vs. Healthy Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ................................ 127 Figure 5-5 U.S. Natural Food Sales by Category, 2000-2009 ................................................................................. 127 Figure 5-6 U.S. Natural Food Sales Growth by Category, 2000-2009 .................................................................... 127 Figure 5-7 U.S. Natural Food Categories as % of Total Natural Foods, 2000-2009 ............................................... 128 Figure 5-8 U.S. Natural Food Growth Rate by Product, 2009 ............................................................................... 128 Figure 5-9 U.S. Natural Food Sales by Channel, 2009 ........................................................................................... 129 Figure 5-10 U.S. Natural Food Compound Annual Growth Rate by Channel, 2000-2009 ..................................... 130 Figure 5-11 U.S. Natural Food Sales & Growth Forecast 2000-2017e .................................................................. 131 Figure 5-12 U.S. Natural Foods Forecast vs. Total Food Sales Forecast, Growth and Penetration, 2010e-2017e 131 Figure 5-13 U.S. Natural Foods Forecast vs. Healthy Food Sales Forecast, Growth and Penetration, 2010e-2017e ............................................................................................................................................................................... 132 Figure 5-14 U.S. Natural Foods Compound Annual Growth Rate by Product, 2010e-2017e................................ 132 Figure 5-15 U.S. Natural Food Sales by Category, 2010e-2017e ........................................................................... 133 Figure 5-16 U.S. Natural Food Sales Growth by Category, 2010e-2017e .............................................................. 133 Figure 5-17 U.S. Natural Food Categories as % of Total Natural Foods, 2010e-2017e ......................................... 134 Figure 5-18 U.S. Total Natural Dairy Sales by Product, 2009 ................................................................................ 134 Figure 5-19 U.S. Natural Dairy vs. Total Natural Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ..................... 135 Figure 5-20 U.S. Natural Dairy vs. Total Dairy Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 .................................. 135 Figure 5-21 U.S. Natural Dairy Sales by Product Category, 2000-2009 ................................................................. 136 Figure 5-22 U.S. Natural Dairy Sales Growth by Product Category, 2000-2009 .................................................... 136 Figure 5-23 U.S. Natural Dairy Sales & Growth, 2000-2017e ................................................................................ 136 Figure 5-24 U.S. Natural Dairy vs. Total Natural Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010e-2017e ................. 137 Figure 5-25 U.S. Natural Dairy vs. Total Dairy Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010-2017e ................................ 137 Figure 5-26 U.S. Natural Dairy Sales by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ............................................................. 137 Figure 5-27 U.S. Natural Dairy Sales Growth by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ................................................ 138 Figure 5-28 U.S. Total Natural Fruits & Vegetables Sales by Product, 2009 ......................................................... 138 Figure 5-29 U.S. Natural Fruits & Vegetables vs. Total Natural Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ............................................................................................................................................................................... 139 Figure 5-30 U.S. Natural Fruits & Vegetables vs. Total Fruits & Vegetables Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ....................................................................................................................................................................... 139 Figure 5-31 U.S. Natural Fruits & Vegetables Sales by Product Category, 2000-2009 .......................................... 139 Figure 5-32 U.S. Natural Fruits & Vegetables Sales Growth by Product Category, 2000-2009 ............................ 140 Figure 5-33 U.S. Natural Fruits & Vegetables Sales & Growth, 2000-2017e ......................................................... 140



Figure 5-34 U.S. Natural Fruits & Vegetables vs. Total Natural Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010e-2017e ............................................................................................................................................................................... 141 Figure 5-35 U.S. Natural Fruits & Vegetables vs. Total Fruits & Vegetables Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010-2017e ..................................................................................................................................................................... 141 Figure 5-36 U.S. Natural Fruits & Vegetables Sales by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ...................................... 141 Figure 5-37 U.S. Natural Fruits & Vegetables Sales Growth by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ......................... 142 Figure 5-38 U.S. Total Natural Breads & Grains Sales by Product, 2009 ............................................................... 142 Figure 5-39 U.S. Natural Breads & Grains vs. Total Natural Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ... 143 Figure 5-40 U.S. Natural Breads & Grains vs. Total Breads & Grains Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009143 Figure 5-41 U.S. Natural Breads & Grains Sales by Product Category, 2000-2009 ............................................... 143 Figure 5-42 U.S. Natural Breads & Grains Sales Growth by Product Category, 2000-2009 .................................. 144 Figure 5-43 U.S. Natural Breads & Grains Sales & Growth, 2000-2017e .............................................................. 144 Figure 5-44 U.S. Natural Breads & Grains vs. Total Natural Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010e-2017e 145 Figure 5-45 U.S. Natural Breads & Grains vs. Total Breads & Grains Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010-2017e ............................................................................................................................................................................... 145 Figure 5-46 U.S. Natural Breads & Grains Sales by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ........................................... 145 Figure 5-47 U.S. Natural Breads & Grains Sales Growth by Product Category, 2010e-2017e .............................. 146 Figure 5-48 U.S. Total Natural Meat, Fish & Poultry Sales by Product, 2009 ........................................................ 146 Figure 5-49 U.S. Natural Meat, Fish & Poultry vs. Total Natural Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ............................................................................................................................................................................... 147 Figure 5-50 U.S. Natural Meat, Fish & Poultry vs. Total Meat, Fish & Poultry Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 .............................................................................................................................................................. 147 Figure 5-51 U.S. Natural Meat, Fish & Poultry Sales by Product Category, 2000-2009 ........................................ 147 Figure 5-52 U.S. Natural Meat, Fish & Poultry Sales Growth by Product Category, 2000-2009 ........................... 148 Figure 5-53 U.S. Natural Meat, Fish & Poultry Sales & Growth, 2000-2017e ....................................................... 148 Figure 5-54 U.S. Natural Meat, Fish & Poultry vs. Total Natural Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010e-2017e ..................................................................................................................................................................... 149 Figure 5-55 U.S. Natural vs. Total Meat, Fish & Poultry Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010e-2017e .............. 149 Figure 5-56 U.S. Natural Meat, Fish & Poultry Sales by Product Category, 2010e-2017e .................................... 149 Figure 5-57 U.S. Natural Meat, Fish & Poultry Sales Growth by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ....................... 150 Figure 5-58 U.S. Total Natural Beverage sales by Product, 2009 .......................................................................... 150 Figure 5-59 U.S. Natural Beverages vs. Total Natural Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ............. 151 Figure 5-60 U.S. Natural Beverages vs. Total Beverage sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ................... 151 Figure 5-61 U.S. Natural Beverage sales by Product Category, 2000-2009 .......................................................... 152 Figure 5-62 U.S. Natural Beverage sales Growth by Product Category, 2000-2009 ............................................. 152 Figure 5-63 U.S. Natural Beverage sales & Growth, 2000-2017e ......................................................................... 153 Figure 5-64 U.S. Natural Beverages vs. Total Natural Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010e-2017e ......... 153 Figure 5-65 U.S. Natural Beverages vs. Total Beverage sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010-2017e ................. 154 Figure 5-66 U.S. Natural Beverage sales by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ...................................................... 154 Figure 5-67 U.S. Natural Beverage sales Growth by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ......................................... 154 Figure 5-68 U.S. Total Natural Snack Food Sales by Product, 2009 ...................................................................... 155 Figure 5-69 U.S. Natural Snack Food vs. Total Natural Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ........... 155 Figure 5-70 U.S. Natural Snack Food vs. Total Snack Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 .............. 156 Figure 5-71 U.S. Natural Snack Food Sales by Product Category, 2000-2009 ....................................................... 156 Figure 5-72 U.S. Natural Snack Food Sales Growth by Product Category, 2000-2009 .......................................... 156 Figure 5-73 U.S. Natural Snack Food Sales & Growth, 2000-2017e ...................................................................... 157 Figure 5-74 U.S. Natural Snack Food vs. Total Natural Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010e-2017e ....... 157 Figure 5-75 U.S. Natural Snack Food vs. Total Snack Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010-2017e ............ 158

Index of Figures


Figure 5-76 U.S. Natural Snack Food Sales by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ................................................... 158 Figure 5-77 U.S. Natural Snack Food Sales Growth by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ...................................... 158 Figure 5-78 U.S. Total Natural Packaged & Prepared Sales by Product, 2009 ...................................................... 159 Figure 5-79 U.S. Natural Packaged & Prepared vs. Total Natural Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ............................................................................................................................................................................... 159 Figure 5-80 U.S. Natural vs. Total Packaged & Prepared Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ........ 160 Figure 5-81 U.S. Natural Packaged & Prepared Sales by Product Category, 2000-2009 ...................................... 160 Figure 5-82 U.S. Natural Packaged & Prepared Sales Growth by Product Category, 2000-2009 ......................... 161 Figure 5-83 U.S. Natural Packaged & Prepared Sales & Growth, 2000-2017e ...................................................... 161 Figure 5-84 U.S. Natural Packaged & Prepared vs. Total Natural Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010e-2017e ..................................................................................................................................................................... 162 Figure 5-85 U.S. Natural vs. Total Packaged & Prepared Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010-2017e ...... 162 Figure 5-86 U.S. Natural Packaged & Prepared Sales by Product Category, 2010e-2017e .................................. 162 Figure 5-87 U.S. Natural Packaged & Prepared Sales Growth by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ..................... 163 Figure 5-88 U.S. Total Natural Condiments Sales by Product, 2009 ..................................................................... 163 Figure 5-89 U.S. Natural Condiments vs. Total Natural Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 .......... 164 Figure 5-90 U.S. Natural Condiments vs. Total Condiments Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ............ 164 Figure 5-91 U.S. Natural Condiments Sales by Product Category, 2000-2009 ...................................................... 164 Figure 5-92 U.S. Natural Condiments Sales Growth by Product Category, 2000-2009 ......................................... 165 Figure 5-93 U.S. Natural Condiments Sales & Growth, 2000-2017e ..................................................................... 165 Figure 5-94 U.S. Natural Condiments vs. Total Natural Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010e-2017e ...... 166 Figure 5-95 U.S. Natural Condiments vs. Total Condiments Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010-2017e .......... 166 Figure 5-96 U.S. Natural Condiments Sales by Product Category, 2010e-2017e .................................................. 166 Figure 5-97 U.S. Natural Condiments Sales Growth by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ..................................... 167 Figure 6-1 U.S. Total Organic Food Sales by Product, 2009 .................................................................................. 177 Figure 6-2 U.S. Organic Food Sales & Growth, 2000-2009 .................................................................................... 178 Figure 6-3 U.S. Organic Food vs. Total Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 .................................... 178 Figure 6-4 U.S. Organic Food vs. Healthy Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ................................ 179 Figure 6-5 U.S. Organic Food Sales by Category, 2000-2009 ................................................................................ 179 Figure 6-6 U.S. Organic Food Sales Growth by Category, 2000-2009 ................................................................... 179 Figure 6-7 U.S. Organic Food Categories as % of Total Organic Foods, 2000-2009 .............................................. 180 Figure 6-8 U.S. Organic Food Growth Rate by Product, 2009 ............................................................................... 180 Figure 6-9 U.S. Organic Food Sales by Channel, 2009 ........................................................................................... 181 Figure 6-10 U.S. Organic Food Compound Annual Growth Rate by Channel, 2000-2009 .................................... 182 Figure 6-11 U.S. Organic Food Sales & Growth Forecast 2000-2017e .................................................................. 183 Figure 6-12 U.S. Organic Food Forecast vs. Total Food Sales Forecast, Growth and Penetration, 2010e-2017e . 183 Figure 6-13 U.S. Organic Food Forecast vs. Healthy Food Sales Forecast, Growth and Penetration, 2010e-2017e ............................................................................................................................................................................... 184 Figure 6-14 U.S. Organic Food Compound Annual Growth Rate by Product, 2010e-2017e ................................. 184 Figure 6-15 U.S. Organic Food Sales by Category, 2010e-2017e .......................................................................... 185 Figure 6-16 U.S. Organic Food Sales Growth by Category, 2010e-2017e ............................................................. 185 Figure 6-17 U.S. Organic Food Categories as % of Total Organic Foods, 2010e-2017e ........................................ 186 Figure 6-18 U.S. Total Organic Dairy Sales by Product, 2009 ................................................................................ 187 Figure 6-19 U.S. Organic Dairy vs. Total Organic Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 .................... 188 Figure 6-20 U.S. Organic Dairy vs. Total Dairy Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ................................. 188 Figure 6-21 U.S. Organic Dairy Sales by Product Category, 2000-2009 ................................................................ 189 Figure 6-22 U.S. Organic Dairy Sales Growth by Product Category, 2000-2009 ................................................... 189



Figure 6-23 U.S. Organic Dairy Sales & Growth, 2000-2017e ............................................................................... 190 Figure 6-24 U.S. Organic Dairy vs. Total Organic Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010e-2017e ................ 190 Figure 6-25 U.S. Organic Dairy vs. Total Dairy Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010-2017e ............................... 191 Figure 6-26 U.S. Organic Dairy Sales by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ............................................................ 191 Figure 6-27 U.S. Organic Dairy Sales Growth by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ............................................... 191 Figure 6-28 U.S. Total Organic Fruits & Vegetables Sales by Product, 2009 ......................................................... 192 Figure 6-29 U.S. Organic Fruits & Vegetables vs. Total Organic Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ............................................................................................................................................................................... 192 Figure 6-30 U.S. Organic Fruits & Vegetables vs. Total Fruits & Vegetables Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ....................................................................................................................................................................... 193 Figure 6-31 U.S. Organic Fruits & Vegetables Sales by Product Category, 2000-2009 ......................................... 193 Figure 6-32 U.S. Organic Fruits & Vegetables Sales Growth by Product Category, 2000-2009 ............................ 193 Figure 6-33 U.S. Organic Fruits & Vegetables Sales & Growth, 2000-2017e ........................................................ 194 Figure 6-34 U.S. Organic Fruits & Vegetables vs. Total Organic Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010e-2017e ............................................................................................................................................................................... 194 Figure 6-35 U.S. Organic Fruits & Vegetables vs. Total Fruits & Vegetables Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010-2017e ..................................................................................................................................................................... 195 Figure 6-36 U.S. Organic Fruits & Vegetables Sales by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ..................................... 195 Figure 6-37 U.S. Organic Fruits & Vegetables Sales Growth by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ........................ 195 Figure 6-38 U.S. Total Organic Breads & Grains Sales by Product, 2009 .............................................................. 196 Figure 6-39 U.S. Organic Breads & Grains vs. Total Organic Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ... 196 Figure 6-40 U.S. Organic Breads & Grains vs. Total Breads & Grains Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ............................................................................................................................................................................... 197 Figure 6-41 U.S. Organic Breads & Grains Sales by Product Category, 2000-2009 ............................................... 197 Figure 6-42 U.S. Organic Breads & Grains Sales Growth by Product Category, 2000-2009 .................................. 198 Figure 6-43 U.S. Organic Breads & Grains Sales & Growth, 2000-2017e .............................................................. 198 Figure 6-44 U.S. Organic Breads & Grains vs. Total Organic Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010e-2017e 199 Figure 6-45 U.S. Organic Breads & Grains vs. Total Breads & Grains Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010-2017e ............................................................................................................................................................................... 199 Figure 6-46 U.S. Organic Breads & Grains Sales by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ........................................... 199 Figure 6-47 U.S. Organic Breads & Grains Sales Growth by Product Category, 2010e-2017e .............................. 200 Figure 6-48 U.S. Total Organic Meat, Fish & Poultry Sales by Product, 2009 ....................................................... 200 Figure 6-49 U.S. Organic Meat, Fish & Poultry vs. Total Organic Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ............................................................................................................................................................................... 201 Figure 6-50 U.S. Organic Meat, Fish & Poultry vs. Total Meat, Fish & Poultry Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 .............................................................................................................................................................. 201 Figure 6-51 U.S. Organic Meat, Fish & Poultry Sales by Product Category, 2000-2009 ........................................ 201 Figure 6-52 U.S. Organic Meat, Fish & Poultry Sales Growth by Product Category, 2000-2009........................... 202 Figure 6-53 U.S. Organic Meat, Fish & Poultry Sales & Growth, 2000-2017e ....................................................... 202 Figure 6-54 U.S. Organic Meat, Fish & Poultry vs. Total Organic Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010e-2017e ..................................................................................................................................................................... 203 Figure 6-55 U.S. Organic Meat, Fish & Poultry vs. Total Meat, Fish & Poultry Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010-2017e ............................................................................................................................................................ 203 Figure 6-56 U.S. Organic Meat, Fish & Poultry Sales by Product Category, 2010e-2017e .................................... 203 Figure 6-57 U.S. Organic Meat, Fish & Poultry Sales Growth by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ....................... 204 Figure 6-58 U.S. Total Organic Beverage sales by Product, 2009 .......................................................................... 205 Figure 6-59 U.S. Organic Beverages vs. Total Organic Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ............ 206 Figure 6-60 U.S. Organic Beverages vs. Total Beverage sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ................... 206

Index of Figures


Figure 6-61 U.S. Organic Beverage sales by Product Category, 2000-2009 .......................................................... 206 Figure 6-62 U.S. Organic Beverage sales Growth by Product Category, 2000-2009 ............................................. 207 Figure 6-63 U.S. Organic Beverage sales & Growth, 2000-2017e ......................................................................... 207 Figure 6-64 U.S. Organic Beverages vs. Total Organic Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010e-2017e ........ 208 Figure 6-65 U.S. Organic Beverages vs. Total Beverage sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010-2017e ................. 208 Figure 6-66 U.S. Organic Beverage sales by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ...................................................... 208 Figure 6-67 U.S. Organic Beverage sales Growth by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ......................................... 209 Figure 6-68 U.S. Total Organic Snack Food Sales by Product, 2009 ...................................................................... 210 Figure 6-69 U.S. Organic Snack Food vs. Total Organic Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 .......... 210 Figure 6-70 U.S. Organic Snack Food vs. Total Snack Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ............. 211 Figure 6-71 U.S. Organic Snack Food Sales by Product Category, 2000-2009 ...................................................... 211 Figure 6-72 U.S. Organic Snack Food Sales Growth by Product Category, 2000-2009 ......................................... 212 Figure 6-73 U.S. Organic Snack Food Sales & Growth, 2000-2017e ...................................................................... 212 Figure 6-74 U.S. Organic Snack Food vs. Total Organic Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010e-2017e ...... 213 Figure 6-75 U.S. Organic Snack Food vs. Total Snack Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010-2017e ........... 213 Figure 6-76 U.S. Organic Snack Food Sales by Product Category, 2010e-2017e .................................................. 213 Figure 6-77 U.S. Organic Snack Food Sales Growth by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ..................................... 214 Figure 6-78 U.S. Total Organic Packaged & Prepared Sales by Product, 2009 ...................................................... 214 Figure 6-79 U.S. Organic Packaged & Prepared vs. Total Organic Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ............................................................................................................................................................................... 215 Figure 6-80 U.S. Organic vs. Total Packaged & Prepared Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ....... 215 Figure 6-81 U.S. Organic Packaged & Prepared Sales by Product Category, 2000-2009 ...................................... 216 Figure 6-82 U.S. Organic Packaged & Prepared Sales Growth by Product Category, 2000-2009 ......................... 216 Figure 6-83 U.S. Organic Packaged & Prepared Sales & Growth, 2000-2017e ..................................................... 217 Figure 6-84 U.S. Organic Packaged & Prepared vs. Total Organic Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010e-2017e ..................................................................................................................................................................... 217 Figure 6-85 U.S. Organic vs. Total Packaged & Prepared Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010-2017e ..... 218 Figure 6-86 U.S. Organic Packaged & Prepared Sales by Product Category, 2010e-2017e .................................. 218 Figure 6-87 U.S. Organic Packaged & Prepared Sales Growth by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ..................... 219 Figure 6-88 U.S. Total Organic Condiments Sales by Product, 2009 ..................................................................... 220 Figure 6-89 U.S. Organic Condiments vs. Total Organic Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ......... 220 Figure 6-90 U.S. Organic Condiments vs. Total Condiments Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ........... 221 Figure 6-91 U.S. Organic Condiments Sales by Product Category, 2000-2009 ..................................................... 221 Figure 6-92 U.S. Organic Condiments Sales Growth by Product Category, 2000-2009 ........................................ 222 Figure 6-93 U.S. Organic Condiments Sales & Growth, 2000-2017e .................................................................... 222 Figure 6-94 U.S. Organic Condiments vs. Total Organic Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010e-2017e ..... 223 Figure 6-95 U.S. Organic Condiments vs. Total Condiments Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010-2017e ......... 223 Figure 6-96 U.S. Organic Condiments Sales by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ................................................. 223 Figure 6-97 U.S. Organic Condiments Sales Growth by Product Category, 2010e-2017e .................................... 224 Figure 7-1 U.S. Total Lesser-Evil Food Sales by Product, 2009 .............................................................................. 237 Figure 7-2 U.S. Lesser-Evil Food Sales & Growth, 1997-2009 ............................................................................... 238 Figure 7-3 U.S. Lesser-Evil Food vs. Total Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ............................... 239 Figure 7-4 U.S. Lesser-Evil Food vs. Healthy Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ........................... 239 Figure 7-5 U.S. Lesser-Evil Food Sales by Category, 2000-2009 ............................................................................ 239 Figure 7-6 U.S. Lesser-Evil Food Sales Growth by Category, 2000-2009 ............................................................... 240 Figure 7-7 U.S. Lesser-Evil Food Categories as % of Total Lesser-Evil Foods, 2000-2009 ..................................... 240 Figure 7-8 U.S. Lesser-Evil Food Growth by Product, 2009 ................................................................................... 241



Figure 7-9 U.S. Lesser-Evil Food Sales by Dietary Category, 2009 ......................................................................... 242 Figure 7-10 Lesser-evil Food Sales and Growth by Dietary Category, 2008-2010 ................................................ 243 Figure 7-11 U.S. Lesser-Evil Food Sales & Growth Forecast 2000-2017e .............................................................. 244 Figure 7-12 U.S. Lesser-Evil Food Forecast vs. Total Food Sales Forecast, Growth and Penetration, 2010e-2017e ............................................................................................................................................................................... 244 Figure 7-13 U.S. Lesser-Evil Food Forecast vs. Healthy Food Sales Forecast, Growth and Penetration, 2010e-2017e ..................................................................................................................................................................... 245 Figure 7-14 U.S. Lesser-Evil Food Compound Annual Growth Rate by Product, 2010e-2017e ............................ 245 Figure 7-15 U.S. Lesser-Evil Food Sales by Category, 2010e-2017e ...................................................................... 246 Figure 7-16 U.S. Lesser-Evil Food Sales Growth by Category, 2010e-2017e ......................................................... 246 Figure 7-17 U.S. Lesser-Evil Food Categories as % of Total Lesser-Evil Foods, 2010e-2017e ............................... 247 Figure 7-18 U.S. Total Lesser-Evil Dairy Sales by Product, 2009 ............................................................................ 248 Figure 7-19 U.S. Lesser-Evil Dairy vs. Total Lesser-Evil Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ........... 248 Figure 7-20 U.S. Lesser-Evil Dairy vs. Total Dairy Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ............................. 249 Figure 7-21 U.S. Lesser-Evil Dairy Sales by Product Category, 2000-2009 ............................................................ 249 Figure 7-22 U.S. Lesser-Evil Dairy Sales Growth by Product Category, 2000-2009 ............................................... 249 Figure 7-23 U.S. Lesser-Evil Dairy Sales & Growth, 2000-2017e ........................................................................... 250 Figure 7-24 U.S. Lesser-Evil Dairy vs. Total Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010e-2017e ......................... 250 Figure 7-25 U.S. Lesser-Evil Dairy vs. Total Dairy Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010-2017e ........................... 251 Figure 7-26 U.S. Lesser-Evil Dairy Sales by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ........................................................ 251 Figure 7-27 U.S. Lesser-Evil Dairy Sales Growth by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ........................................... 251 Figure 7-28 U.S. Total Lesser-Evil Fruits & Vegetables Sales by Product, 2009 .................................................... 252 Figure 7-29 U.S. Lesser-Evil Fruits & Vegetables vs. Total Lesser-Evil Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ....................................................................................................................................................................... 252 Figure 7-30 U.S. Lesser-Evil Fruits & Vegetables vs. Total Fruits & Vegetables Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 .............................................................................................................................................................. 253 Figure 7-31 U.S. Lesser-Evil Fruits & Vegetables Sales by Product Category, 2000-2009 ..................................... 253 Figure 7-32 U.S. Lesser-Evil Fruits & Vegetables Sales Growth by Product Category, 2000-2009 ........................ 253 Figure 7-33 U.S. Lesser-Evil Fruits & Vegetables Sales & Growth, 2000-2017e .................................................... 254 Figure 7-34 U.S. Lesser-Evil Fruits & Vegetables vs. Total Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010e-2017e .. 254 Figure 7-35 U.S. Lesser-Evil Fruits & Vegetables vs. Total Fruits & Vegetables Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010-2017e ............................................................................................................................................................ 255 Figure 7-36 U.S. Lesser-Evil Fruits & Vegetables Sales by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ................................. 255 Figure 7-37 U.S. Lesser-Evil Fruits & Vegetables Sales Growth by Product Category, 2010e-2017e .................... 255 Figure 7-38 U.S. Total Lesser-Evil Breads & Grains Sales by Product, 2009 .......................................................... 256 Figure 7-39 U.S. Lesser-Evil Breads & Grains vs. Total Lesser-Evil Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ............................................................................................................................................................................... 256 Figure 7-40 U.S. Lesser-Evil Breads & Grains vs. Total Breads & Grains Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ............................................................................................................................................................................... 257 Figure 7-41 U.S. Lesser-Evil Breads & Grains Sales by Product Category, 2000-2009 .......................................... 257 Figure 7-42 U.S. Lesser-Evil Breads & Grains Growth by Product Category, 2000-2009 ...................................... 258 Figure 7-43 U.S. Lesser-Evil Breads & Grains Sales & Growth, 2000-2017e ......................................................... 258 Figure 7-44 U.S. Lesser-Evil Breads & Grains vs. Total Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010e-2017e ........ 259 Figure 7-45 U.S. Lesser-Evil Breads & Grains vs. Total Breads & Grains Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010-2017e ..................................................................................................................................................................... 259 Figure 7-46 U.S. Lesser-Evil Breads & Grains Sales by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ...................................... 259 Figure 7-47 U.S. Lesser-Evil Breads & Grains Sales Growth by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ......................... 260 Figure 7-48 U.S. Total Lesser-Evil Meat, Fish & Poultry Sales by Product, 2009 ................................................... 260

Index of Figures


Figure 7-49 U.S. Lesser-Evil Dairy vs. Total Lesser-Evil Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ........... 261 Figure 7-50 U.S. Lesser-Evil Dairy vs. Total Meat, Fish & Poultry Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 .... 261 Figure 7-51 U.S. Lesser-Evil Meat, Fish & Poultry Sales by Product Category, 2000-2009 ................................... 261 Figure 7-52 U.S. Lesser-Evil Meat, Fish & Poultry Sales Growth by Product Category, 2000-2009 ...................... 262 Figure 7-53 U.S. Lesser-Evil Meat, Fish & Poultry Sales & Growth, 2000-2017e .................................................. 262 Figure 7-54 U.S. Lesser-Evil Meat, Fish & Poultry vs. Total Meat, Fish & Poultry Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010-2017e ............................................................................................................................................................ 263 Figure 7-55 U.S. Lesser-Evil Meat, Fish & Poultry vs. Total Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010e-2017e 263 Figure 7-56 U.S. Lesser-Evil Meat, Fish & Poultry Sales by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ............................... 263 Figure 7-57 U.S. Lesser-Evil Meat, Fish & Poultry Sales Growth by Product Category, 2010e-2017e .................. 264 Figure 7-58 U.S. Total Functional Food Sales by Product, 2009 ............................................................................ 264 Figure 7-59 U.S. Lesser-Evil Beverage vs. Total Lesser-Evil Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ..... 265 Figure 7-60 U.S. Lesser-Evil Beverage vs. Total Beverage Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ................ 265 Figure 7-61 U.S. Lesser-Evil Beverage Sales by Product Category, 2000-2009 ..................................................... 265 Figure 7-62 U.S. Lesser-Evil Beverage Growth by Product Category, 2000-2009 ................................................. 266 Figure 7-63 U.S. Lesser-Evil Beverage Sales & Growth, 2000-2017e .................................................................... 266 Figure 7-64 U.S. Lesser-Evil Beverage vs. Total Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010e-2017e ................... 267 Figure 7-65 U.S. Lesser-Evil Beverage vs. Total Beverage Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010-2017e .............. 267 Figure 7-66 U.S. Lesser-Evil Beverage Sales by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ................................................. 267 Figure 7-67 U.S. Lesser-Evil Beverage Sales Growth by Product Category, 2010e-2017e .................................... 268 Figure 7-68 U.S. Total Lesser-Evil Snack Food Sales by Product, 2009 .................................................................. 268 Figure 7-69 U.S. Lesser-Evil Snack Food vs. Total Lesser-Evil Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 . 269 Figure 7-70 U.S. Lesser-Evil Snack Food vs. Total Snack Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ......... 269 Figure 7-71 U.S. Lesser-Evil Snack Food Sales by Product Category, 2000-2009 .................................................. 269 Figure 7-72 U.S. Lesser-Evil Snack Food Sales Growth by Product Category, 2000-2009 ..................................... 270 Figure 7-73 U.S. Lesser-Evil Snack Food Sales & Growth, 2000-2017e ................................................................. 270 Figure 7-74 U.S. Lesser-Evil Snack Food vs. Total Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010e-2017e ............... 271 Figure 7-75 U.S. Lesser-Evil Snack Food vs. Total Snack Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010-2017e ....... 271 Figure 7-76 U.S. Lesser-Evil Snack Food Sales by Product Category, 2010e-2017e .............................................. 271 Figure 7-77 U.S. Lesser-Evil Snack Food Sales Growth by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ................................. 272 Figure 7-78 U.S. Total Lesser-Evil Packaged & Prepared Food Sales by Product, 2009 ........................................ 272 Figure 7-79 U.S. Lesser-Evil Packaged & Prepared Food vs. Total Lesser-Evil Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 .............................................................................................................................................................. 273 Figure 7-80 U.S. Lesser-Evil vs. Total Packaged & Prepared Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ... 273 Figure 7-81 U.S. Lesser-Evil Packaged & Prepared Food Sales by Product Category, 2000-2009 ......................... 274 Figure 7-82 U.S. Lesser-Evil Packaged & Prepared Food Growth by Product Category, 2000-2009 ..................... 274 Figure 7-83 U.S. Lesser-Evil Packaged & Prepared Food Sales & Growth, 2000-2017e ........................................ 275 Figure 7-84 U.S. Lesser-Evil Packaged & Prepared Food vs. Total Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010e-2017e ..................................................................................................................................................................... 275 Figure 7-85 U.S. Lesser-Evil vs. Total Packaged & Prepared Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010-2017e . 276 Figure 7-86 U.S. Lesser-Evil Packaged & Prepared Food Sales by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ..................... 276 Figure 7-87 U.S. Lesser-Evil Packaged & Prepared Food Sales Growth by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ....... 277 Figure 7-88 U.S. Total Lesser-Evil Condiments Sales by Product, 2009 ................................................................. 278 Figure 7-89 U.S. Lesser-Evil Condiments vs. Total Lesser-Evil Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 278 Figure 7-90 U.S. Lesser-Evil Condiments vs. Total Condiments Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2000-2009 ....... 279 Figure 7-91 U.S. Lesser-Evil Condiments Sales by Product Category, 2000-2009 ................................................. 279 Figure 7-92 U.S. Lesser-Evil Condiments Sales Growth by Product Category, 2000-2009 .................................... 279



Figure 7-93 U.S. Lesser-Evil Condiments Sales & Growth, 2000-2017e ................................................................ 280 Figure 7-94 U.S. Lesser-Evil Condiments vs. Total Food Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010e-2017e .............. 280 Figure 7-95 U.S. Lesser-Evil Condiments vs. Total Condiments Sales, Growth and Penetration, 2010-2017e ..... 281 Figure 7-96 U.S. Lesser-Evil Condiments Sales by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ............................................. 281 Figure 7-97 U.S. Lesser-Evil Condiments Sales Growth by Product Category, 2010e-2017e ................................ 281

1 Acknowledgements & Definitions


The healthy food market in the United States kept pace with overall food industry growth in 2009, but this is

far from good news. Annual growth rates continue to slip for healthy foods, which has seen its star dull and tarnish in the protracted economic malaise. Data does suggest, however, that we may have hit the bottom, and growth rates should improve modestly over the next year. As growth takes meaningful hold, healthy foods should increase its share of the total food market, reaching 23% penetration by 2017. The trend toward consumers embracing natural and organic foods and beverages as safer and healthier choices remains particularly strong.

In 2009, the total U.S. food market grew 1.6%, reaching $628 billion in sales, while healthy foods grew 1.8% to reach $143 billion in sales. Nutrition Business Journal includes four product categories in the healthy food market: organic, natural, functional and lesser-evil foods. Market-standard and conventional foods make up an additional, catch-all category for the total foods results. This report contains detailed analysis of each healthy food category, and the food and beverage product lines they include.

Looking back over the past decade, healthy foods has clearly outperformed total foods with a 7% compound

annual growth rate (CAGR), compared to 3% for total foods. Such dramatic, faster growth does not, however, appear sustainable. Looking ahead toward the next eight years, NBJ predicts a tightening spread, with total foods maintaining its 3% CAGR, and healthy foods slowing down to 5% CAGR with sales reaching $217 billion by 2017.

Anemic growth in both food markets is attributable to the economic downturn, but several factors contributed specifically to the more pronounced growth slowdown in healthy foods, a category used to annual growth rates in the high single digits.

Lesser-evil foods, which account for 49% of healthy foods sales, actually declined in year-over-year performance. Much of this stems from problems in dairy, where the entire industry suffered from overproduction and lowered unit prices, but sales also fell among low-fat and low-carb products by 5% annually. Improved sales for gluten-free products provided a glimmer of hope in breads & grains, which grew 8% annually.

Functional foods grew in 2009, but at a much slower rate than NBJ has seen in more than 10 years of tracking. This category saw a slight slowdown in new product offerings and more discontinuation of lackluster products, a trend that should continue as certain categories—energy drinks and enhanced waters, most

Figure 1-1 U.S. Total Healthy Food Sales by Product, 2009

Source: Nutrition Business Journal estimates.($mil., consumer sales)

Natural Foods9%

Organic Foods16%

Functional Foods26%

Lesser Evil Foods49%



notably—suffer more fallout. The functional category faces new challenges on the legal road ahead, as regulators in the United States and Europe show clear signs of cracking down on health claims and misleading label claims. NBJ research suggests that functional foods should post a 4.5% CAGR through 2017, with product innovation arising from novel ingredient combinations, rather than through the introduction of new functional ingredients.

Turf wars persisted in 2009 between the organic and natural categories. Less-expensive and less-regulated natural offerings gained share from organic, where the costs of certification, consumer confusion over the added-value of organic, and higher price points led industry veterans to migrate toward natural. In 2009, White Wave’s Horizon Dairy brand launched its first non-organic products and dropped the word “organic” from its name.

The organic industry was also hit by a dramatic surplus in produce, which brought prices down and prompted some retailers, such as Whole Food market, to pass those savings along to consumers. Meanwhile, consumers demonstrated greater sophistication about organic choices, particularly in milk, where NBJ found evidence of trade downs from organic to hormone-free conventional products. Despite the challenges facing the natural and organic markets, NBJ is forecasting that the lion’s share of growth for healthy foods will be generated by these two categories, with natural predicted to grow 13% CAGR until 2017 and organic to grow 7% CAGR. Both of these rates significantly outpace growth for the healthy food market and the larger total food market.

NBJ’s Healthy Foods Report 2010 covers these trends and many others affecting the nutrition industry. This 293-page report, now in its third iteration and first major update since 2007, features:

Consumer sales results for healthy foods in 2009 by food category—natural, organic, functional, and lesser-evil—and by food subcategories within each category

Growth estimates through 2017 for the healthy foods market by category and its major subcategories

Detailed historical data of healthy foods results for the past 10 years

Analysis of emerging new product categories and regulatory issues facing the industry globally

Case studies profiling major successes and failures, and trends shaping the future of healthy foods

Interviews with industry executives and thought leaders about the state of healthy foods

nbj’s nutritional raw material & ingredient supply reportnbj’s healthy foods report 2010 an...

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