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M E M O R A N D U M

TO: INTERESTED PARTIES

FROM: GLEN BOLGER

RE: KEY FINDINGS ON THE NORTH CAROLINA CD-9 GOP PRIMARY RACE

DATE: DECEMBER 7, 2015

The Bottom LineRobert Pittenger begins the 2016 primary campaign in a strong position. His robust image with primaryvoters translates into an even stronger showing on both ballot tests. Importantly, Pittenger’s dominanceon the ballot tests is a result of his standing with the voters who matter most in a Republican primarycontest: base Republicans, seniors, very conservative voters, and voters who are favorable to the TeaParty and to the NRA. Pittenger’s support among these key groups makes him a formidable favoriteheading into the 2016 primary contest.

Key Findings

1. Congressman Robert Pittenger is well-known and well-liked by Republican primary voters inthe district.

Ninety-seven percent (97%) of primary voters have heard of Pittenger, and his image is 61%favorable/20% unfavorable. Among key subgroups:

• Pittenger’s image is 71% favorable/12% unfavorable with base Republicans.

• Among base Republicans who are strongly favorable to the Tea Party, his image is 80%favorable/15% unfavorable.

• Very conservative voters give the congressman high marks, with his image at a solid 68%favorable/16% unfavorable among this key group.

2. By way of contrast, Congressman Pittenger’s opponents are unknown and undefined.

Both George Rouco and Dan Barry have underwhelming name ID and images among primaryvoters:

• George Rouco has just 34% name ID, and his image is 12% favorable/6% unfavorable.

• Likewise, Dan Barry has just 28% name ID. Barry’s image sits at 7% favorable/2%unfavorable.

NC CD-9 Survey Key Findings MemoPage 2 of 2

3. Robert Pittenger dominates on both a head-to-head ballot test against George Rouco and on athree-way ballot test with Dan Barry and Rouco.

In a face-off with George Rouco, Pittenger earns 68% to Rouco’s 12%. Eighteen percent (18%)of voters are undecided. Tellingly, Pittenger begins the campaign with a definite vote of 30% –more than double the total vote share of Rouco. Among key subgroups:

• Seventy-seven percent (77%) of base Republicans back Pittenger.

• Base GOPers who are also very conservative back Pittenger 80%-8%.

• Among base GOPers who are senior citizens, Pittenger leads 81%-9%.

• Base Republicans who are also religious conservatives support Pittenger 77%-7%.

• Voters who support the goals and objectives of the NRA back Pittenger 72%-9%.

The addition of Dan Barry on the ballot test barely puts a dent in Pittenger’s support, withPittenger earning 66% to Barry’s 7%. Indeed, the addition of Barry impacts Rouco most, splittinghis vote in half to just 6%, while Pittenger’s vote is relatively unchanged. Nineteen percent (19%)of voters are undecided.

• Pittenger continues to crush his opponents among base GOPers who are veryconservative, clocking in at 79%.

• Pittenger maintains his edge with base GOPers who are senior citizens, earning 80%.

• There is no change among base Republicans who strongly favor the Tea Party whenBarry’s name is added to the ballot test: Pittenger dominates with 79% among this keygroup on a two-way and a three-way ballot.

MethodologyPublic Opinion Strategies conducted a survey of 300 likely GOP primary voters in North Carolina’s 9th

Congressional District. The survey was conducted by landline and cell phone, using live interviewers,November 30-December 2, 2015. Twenty percent (20%) of interviews were conducted with cell phonerespondents. The margin of error for this survey is +5.66% in 95 out of 100 cases.