ncampo meeting may 2012. 2 smz’s- 2577 mpo areas-aggregated zones rpo areas-census blocks
TRANSCRIPT
NC Statewide ModelDevelopment
NCSTMUpdate
NCAMPO MeetingMay 2012
2
Statewide Model Zones(SMZs)
SMZ’s- 2577
MPO Areas-Aggregated ZonesRPO Areas-Census Blocks
3
National Model Zones (NMZs)
317 NMZs
Total of 2894 NCSTM Zones
NCSTM Networks
Links162K Total102K in NC
Centroid Connectors-10,000
Household Data
5
PopulationHousehold Population
HouseholdsGroup QuartersAve HH Income
WorkersMilitary Group Quarters
2010 Census DataWoods & Poole Adjustments
6
NCSTM Employment
% of Employment
Industrial 14.22%
High Industrial 9.33%
Retail 13.04%
High Retail 10.83%
Service 22.68%
Office 13.88%
Gov't 6.93%
Education 7.11%
Hospital 1.97%
Sources• INFOUSA • Woods & Poole• Employment Security Commission
7
Model Overview
National ModelStatewide Model
Socio-Economic Data
Trip Generation
Destination Choice
Mode Choice
Trip Generation
Trip Distribution
Multi-class Assignment
Disaggregation
TrucksTrips
Person Trips
Flow Extraction
EI/IE/EE trips
EI/IE/EE trips
II trips II trips
Trip Extraction
NHTS Long-Distance
NHTS Add-on Sample NC
Triangle truck survey FAF3
Disaggregation
TRIP GENERATION
8
Trip Generation DesignClassification• Four Household Sizes – 1,2,3,4+• Five Income Classifications
< $20,000$20,000-$35,000$35,000-$55,000$55,000-$80,000>$80,000
• Three Area Types- – Urban, Suburban, Rural
• Three North Carolina Regions
9
NCSTM Regions
Trip PurposesFive Trip Purposes Defined
– Home-Based Work (by five income classes)
– Home-Based Other– Home-Based Shop– Non-Home Based (places other than
work)– Non-Home Based Work (from Work sites)
11
Productions & Attractions
12
% Productions of Total - all purposes
Estimated Observed
HBO 39% 40%HBS 15% 14%HBW 17% 17%NHB 17% 17%
NHBW 12% 11%Estimate/Observed HBWTotal HBO HBS NHBAW NHB SUM
1 1.37 0.94 0.94 1.49 0.77 1.002 1.09 1.13 0.97 1.19 1.00 1.083 1.17 1.32 1.21 1.56 1.85 1.374 1.19 1.01 0.95 1.16 0.90 1.025 1.62 0.92 1.11 1.24 1.13 1.106 2.48 1.52 0.97 1.58 0.79 1.317 2.43 0.63 0.87 0.47 0.10 0.408 1.61 1.03 0.83 1.55 0.52 0.949 0.70 1.69 1.74 2.70 2.04 1.45
10 0.71 1.24 1.41 0.77 1.02 1.0111 1.40 0.79 0.85 1.60 0.53 0.8612 1.78 0.77 1.10 2.65 0.96 1.0413 1.15 1.14 0.95 2.19 0.94 1.1414 1.21 1.12 1.39 1.62 0.57 1.0715 0.67 1.05 0.78 1.05 0.70 0.8516 1.28 1.10 0.89 1.17 0.88 1.0617 0.79 1.13 1.14 0.79 0.97 0.9718 1.11 1.39 1.19 2.21 1.09 1.2919 1.17 1.28 1.38 1.29 1.17 1.2620 1.46 1.09 0.87 1.05 0.75 1.0121 0.86 1.20 1.00 1.38 1.15 1.09
Sum 1.24 1.08 1.07 1.34 0.91 1.10
MPO Comparison
13
NCSTM Productions and Attractions by MPO
Actual Urban Model Values
NCSTM vs Urban Model
MPO Productions HHs P's /HH Productions P's/HH Prod % Diff
Asheville 1,541,546 183624 8.4 1,577,418 8.6 -35,872 -2.27%
Fayetteville 1,216,837 131461 9.3 1,066,200 8.1 150,637 14.13%
Goldsboro 292,643 35523 8.2 259,087 7.3 33,556 12.95%
Greenville 480,704 56196 8.6 494,047 8.8 -13,343 -2.70%
Hickory 1,045,698 118837 8.8 NA
Jacksonville 427,436 41010 10.4 320,079 7.8 107,357 33.54%
Metrolina 7,063,424 723684 9.8 7,496,296 10.4 -432,872 -5.77%
Rocky Mount 298,935 34640 8.6 310,755 9.0 -11,819 -3.80%
Triad 4,151,305 453265 9.2 4,020,902 8.9 130,402 3.24%
Triangle 6,002,469 616515 9.7 6,003,424 9.7 -956 -0.02%
Wilmington 897,722 101430 8.9 758,061 7.5 139,660 18.42%
Trip Generation
Region HBW HBO HBS NHBAW NHB SUM1 Eastern 1.15 1.10 0.98 1.34 0.60 0.992 Piedmont 1.40 1.11 1.19 1.41 1.20 1.213 Mountains 0.96 0.95 0.91 1.15 0.81 0.94
TRIP DISTRIBUTION(DESTINATION CHOICE)
hbw1 = (1*[Retail Employees]+1.292*[High Retail Employees]+0.541*[Office Employees]+0.888*[Service Employees]+0.425*[Government Employees]+0.678*[Education Employees]+0.415*[Hospital Employees]+0.425*[Military Employees]+0.685*[Industrial Employees]+0.599*[High Industrial Employees]) * exp(0.8+0.081*GeneralizedCost+-0.1*Distance+0.001*Distance2))+DistanceK
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Model Results - HBW
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08HBW Location Choice TLFD
Survey - HBW Model - HBWDistance
Norm
alized F
requency
Survey Avg Distance
Model Avg Distance
Coincidence Index
12.49 11.40 .83
18
Model Results - HBO
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
HBO Location Choice TLFD
Survey - HBO Model - HBODistance
Norm
alized F
requency
Survey Avg Distance
Model Avg Distance
Coincidence Index
7.34 7.23 .86
LONG DISTANCE AUTO
20
Person Long-Distance Travel
EI
IE
II EE
Regional Hospitals
Data collected by IEM
Number of Hotel Rooms
Daily visitors to parks
LONG DISTANCE TRUCKS
Concept of National Truck Model
Freight flows between 3,241 counties
FAF3 data
County Employment
Freight flows NCSTM Zones
NC Zonal Employment
Payload factors
Truck trip O/D matrix
25
Empty-Truck Rate
Truck trip O/D matrix with empty trucks
Distribution Centers
26
Distribution CenterTruck
Intermodal FacilityAir/Rail/Water
Distribution Centers & Intermodal Facilities
27Data collected by IEM
Port of Morehead City
Port of Wilmington
RDUGSO
CLT
SHORT DISTANCE TRUCKS
Trip Production Rate Comparison
2/1/2012
NCSTM-TRC Meeting
29
TRUCKCLASS EMPLOYMENT TYPE GTR TRIP RATE QRFM TRIP RATE DIFFERENCEAUTO Gov 0.143 (474) 0.437 -67%
High Industrial 0.381 (423) 0.938 -59% Industrial 0.105 (114) 0.938 -89% Office 0.168 (396) 0.437 -62% Retail 0.143 (757) 0.888 -84% Service 0.486 (998) 0.437 11%
SUT Gov 0.105 (325) 0.068 54% High Industrial 0.272 (304) 0.242 12% Industrial 0.158 (148) 0.242 -35% Office 0.477 (187) 0.068 601% Retail 0.112 (559) 0.253 -56% Service 0.379 (780) 0.068 457%
MUT Industrial 0.272 (320) 0.104 162% Service 0.411 (266) 0.009 4467%
Model vs Count Validation Comparison (cont.)
GTR Total Trucks QRFM Total Trucks
Average Trip Length
MULTI-UNIT TRUCK (V-TYPE 8-13)
SINGLE-UNIT TRUCK (VTYPE 5-7)
Modeled 11.0807179924259 9.60096005856897
Count 11.0844686648501 9.7111111111111
8.75
9.25
9.75
10.25
10.75
11.25
Average Trip Length
Miles
MODE CHOICE
Mode Choice Modeling in NCSTM
• In urban regions, transit share is based on MPO/Regional models. Activity density is used to allocate transit share to NCSTM zones
• Between urban areas, r3logit models mode choice explicitly.
MPO/Regional Model Transit Share
Fayetteville
Raleigh
Charlotte
Winston-Salem
Greensboro
Nested Model Structure of r3logit
Person Trip
Auto Transit
Drive-Alone
HOV2 HOV3 HOV4+ Bus Rail Air
r3logit Model Concept• Model applied for long-distance trips
> 50 miles• Transit access is assumed to be
drive-access only (Who walks to the airport?)
• Variables that drive r3logit:Auto Transit
Auto travel time Auto access travel timeAuto egress travel time
Auto travel distanceBoarding time (incl. security check)
Transit fare
Auto operating costs Transit travel time
Auto egress time Number of transfers
Parking cost (currently set to 0)
Deboarding time (incl. baggage claim)
INITIAL RESULTS
Screenlines# TOTAL AUTO MUT SUT1 Wilmington 0.47 0.44 1.08 0.402 Fay North 1.06 1.05 1.29 0.943 Morehead City 0.83 0.79 1.37 0.664 Raleigh East 0.80 0.77 1.49 0.765 95 Upper 1.19 1.23 0.95 1.546 95 Lower 1.38 1.49 0.96 0.967 Outer Banks 1.01 1.05 0.82 0.32
8Central EW
Upper 1.22 1.21 1.46 1.019 Triad West 1.35 1.36 1.28 1.2510 Asheville East 0.96 0.90 1.53 1.0611 Charlotte North 1.00 1.02 1.04 0.5812 NC Upper 77/52 0.99 0.98 1.04 1.0113 Triad North 1.00 1.05 0.78 0.4214 Charlotte South 1.22 1.26 1.00 0.4615 Triad South 1.92 2.22 0.64 0.57
5/3/2012
Total Screenlines
1 Wilmington2 Fay North3 Morehead City4 Raleigh East5 95 Upper6 95 Lower7 Outer Banks8 Central EW Upper9 Triad West
10 Asheville East11 Charlotte North12 NC Upper 77/5213 Triad North14 Charlotte South15 Triad South
40
Absolute Screenlines
1 Wilmington2 Fay North3 Morehead City4 Raleigh East5 95 Upper6 95 Lower7 Outer Banks8 Central EW Upper9 Triad West
10 Asheville East11 Charlotte North12 NC Upper 77/5213 Triad North14 Charlotte South15 Triad South
Auto Screenlines
6 ModelsOhio
OregonMaryland
Other Statewide Models
Districts
Example District
45
Schedule
• Calibration Adjustments• Mid-June
• Future Year Coding • End of summer
MODEL INTERFACE
NCSTM Interface Status
472/1/2012
• Can Run All Steps, Stages (groups of steps), or Individual Steps
NCSTM Interface Status
482/1/2012
• “Reports” button for each step provides results from each step – such as district-district trips or VMT by County
Report Examples
492/1/2012
District-District Home-Based Shopping Trips
Productions and Attractions summed to MPO Model Areas
Report Examples
502/1/2012
Vehicle-Miles Traveled, Vehicle-Hours Traveled, and other information by Selected
Summary Levels
COUNTY FAC_TYPE VMT VHT Ave V/C
001 12,105,50
7 64,173 1.02001 3 351,499 18,027 0.81
001 41,558,16
7 50,573 1.07001 5 779,069 23,377 0.87001 6 35,888 899 0.79001 7 11,132 267 0.44001 51 118,173 2,835 1.15001 54 118 3 0.09001 98 760,779 20,160 0.09003 4 899,210 35,471 1.31003 5 195,471 10,837 1.78003 54 1,485 31 0.65003 98 309,647 7,319 0.09005 4 223,689 8,835 0.88005 5 660,536 25,068 0.83005 98 98,180 2,590 0.03007 3 694,467 30,671 0.73007 4 309,461 10,629 1.17
007 51,021,81
3 30,976 1.08007 7 5,393 166 0.93007 98 198,911 4,846 0.03009 4 338,289 11,823 0.91
009 51,024,50
6 48,941 0.81009 7 380 17 0.66009 98 310,937 6,892 0.05
Scenario Manager
512/1/2012