NCEP Overview

“Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin”

Dr. James HokeNational Centers for Environmental Prediction

Acting Director

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Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment Delegation- VietnamJanuary 10, 2013

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Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service

NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products

Vision: The Nation’s trusted source, first alert and preferred partner for environmental prediction services

Space Weather Prediction Center

NCEP Central OperationsClimate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydromet Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center

National Hurricane Center Storm Prediction Center

Aviation Weather Center

Mission: NCEP delivers science-based environmental predictions to the nation and the global community. We collaborate with partners and customers to produce reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy.

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Research, Development and Technology Infusion

Respond & Feedback

NCEP’s Role in NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services

IBM Supercomputer Gaithersburg, MD Distribute

Observe

Products & Forecast Services

To Serve Diverse Customer Base e.g., Energy Officials,

DHS/FEMA, Emergency Managers, Water

Resource Planning, Transportation, Health organizations (CDC…)

NCEP

Feedback

- Process- Assimilate- Predict

Prediction is now inherently linked to numerical models

CentralGuidance

LocalOffices

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• EMC WRF Developmental Test Center, NASA/ NOAA/DoD Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

• CPC Climate Test Bed • NHC Joint Hurricane Test Bed• HPC Hydrometeorological Test Bed• SPC Hazardous Weather Test Bed with NSSL• SWPC Space Weather Prediction Test Bed with AFWA• AWC Aviation Weather Test Bed• OPC linked with EMC’s Marine Modeling and

Analysis Branch

Test BedsService – Science Linkage with the Outside Community

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What Does NCEP Do?

- Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather

- International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts- Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation- Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations

“From the Sun to the Sea”• Solar Monitoring, Warnings

and Forecasts• Climate Seasonal Forecasts• El Nino – La Nina Forecast• Weather Forecasts to Day 7• Extreme Events (Hurricanes,

Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather)

• Aviation Forecasts and Warnings• High Seas Forecasts and Warnings

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Everything you read, see or hear about weather, climate and ocean forecasts begins

with NCEP numerical prediction models

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• Global Observing System• Computers

(supercomputers, work stations)

• Data Assimilation & Modeling/Science

Three Major Components of the Numerical Prediction

Enterprise

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Air Quality

WRF NMM/ARWWorkstation WRF

WRF: ARW, NMMNMMBGFS, Canadian Global Model

Regional NAMWRF NMMB

North American Ensemble Forecast System

Hurricane GFDLHWRF

GlobalForecastSystem

Dispersion

ARL/HYSPLIT

Forecast

Severe Weather

Rapid Refreshfor Aviation

Climate ForecastSystem

Short-RangeEnsemble Forecast

NOAA’s Model Production Suite

GFS MOM4NOAH Sea Ice

NOAH Land Surface Model

Coupled

Global DataAssimilation

OceansHYCOM

WaveWatch III

NAM/CMAQ

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Regi

onal

DA

Satellites + Radar99.9%

~2B Obs/Day

NOS – OFS• Great Lakes• Northern

Gulf of Mex• Columbia R.

Bays• Chesapeake• Tampa • Delaware

SpaceWeather

ENLIL

Regi

onal

DA

Sea Nettle

Forecast

Climate/WeatherLinkage

Forecast Uncertainty

Minutes

Hours

Days

1 Week

2 Week

Months

SeasonsYears

NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather

North American Ensemble Forecast System

Climate Forecast System

Fore

cast

Lea

d Ti

me

Warnings & Alert Coordination

Watches

Forecasts

Threats Assessments

Guidance

Outlook

Benefits

Short-Range Ensemble ForecastGlobal Forecast System

North American Forecast

Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation

Dispersion Models for DHS

NCEP Model Perspective

Mar

itim

e

Life

& P

rope

rty

Spa

ce O

pera

tions

Rec

reat

ion

Eco

syst

em

Env

ironm

ent

Em

erge

ncy

Mgm

t

Agr

icul

ture

Res

ervo

ir C

ontro

l

Ene

rgy

Pla

nnin

g

Com

mer

ce

Hyd

ropo

wer

Fire

Wea

ther

Hea

lth

Avi

atio

n

Hurricane – GFDL, WRF GLOFS BaysChesapeake, N. GoMTampa, Columbia R, Delaware

Enlil – Space Wx Model

Ocean ModelHYCOMWave Watch III

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Metrics

Annual Mean 500-hPa HGT Anomaly Correlation

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Forecaster (HPC) Skill

2011

Computing Capability“reliable, timely and accurate”

Web access to models as they run on the CCS

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

JULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJUL

Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

• Current computers– IBM Power6– 73.1 trillion calculations/sec – 2 billion observations/day– 27.8 million model fields/day– Primary: Gaithersburg, MD– Backup: Fairmont, WV– Guaranteed switchover in 15

minutes• Next generation computer:

by Oct 2013– IBM iDataPlex Intel/Linux– 208 trillion calc/sec– Primary: Reston, VA– Backup: Orlando, FL

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NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction

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• Four-story, 268,762 square foot building in Riverdale, MD houses 800+ Federal employees, and contractors• 5 NCEP Centers (NCO, EMC, HPC, OPC, CPC)• NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and

Research (STAR)• NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB)• OAR Air Resources Laboratory

• Includes 40 spaces for visiting scientists• Includes 464 seat auditorium/

conference center, library, deli, fitness center and health unit

• Move complete August 24, 2012

• NCEP is– Strategically aligned with NOAA’s “seamless suite” of products

from the “Sun to the Sea”– Working with NOAA and larger coastal/ocean communities on

expanded responsibilities (e.g, oceans air and water quality, ecology, space weather…); success is based on interdisciplinary partnerships

– A critical transition agent in the NOAA “research to operations” process involving observations, data assimilation, modeling, and service delivery (R2O O2R); working with national and international communities

– Moved into NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction in August 2012 – opens up a new era for entire enterprise

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Concluding Remarks

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Appendix