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NCoMM NCML COMMODITY MARKET MONITOR ANSWERS & LUCKY WINNER OF PREVIOUS WEEK’S QUIZ WEEKLY ONLINE QUIZ Click on the link above to participate Participate in our weekly quiz and get a chance to win Amazon gift coupons. Winners will be announced in next report and rewarded. Sugar • Tur • Wheat • Chana • Maize • Paddy/Rice • Guar

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Page 1: NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor Date: 13 … NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor Date: 13-02-2018 HOME z • Cotton • Sugar • Soyben • RM Seed z • Castor seed • Turmeric

0

Date: 13-02-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor

HOME

• Cotton • Sugar • Soyben • RM Seed • Castor seed • Turmeric • Jeera

NCoMM

NCML COMMODITY MARKET MONITOR

Cotton | Sugar | Soybean | RM Seed | Castor seed | Turmeric | Jeera

OUTLOOK

OTHER DATA Sowing progress | Advance estimates | Kharif and rabi MSP

ANSWERS & LUCKY WINNER OF PREVIOUS WEEK’S

QUIZ

NCoMM NCML COMMODITY MARKET MONITOR

ANSWERS & LUCKY WINNER OF PREVIOUS WEEK’S QUIZ

WEEKLY ONLINE QUIZ Click on the link above to participate

Participate in our weekly quiz and get a chance to win Amazon gift coupons. Winners will be announced in next report and rewarded.

Sugar • Tur • Wheat • Chana • Maize • Paddy/Rice • Guar

Page 2: NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor Date: 13 … NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor Date: 13-02-2018 HOME z • Cotton • Sugar • Soyben • RM Seed z • Castor seed • Turmeric

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Date: 13-02-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Government is continuously trying to arrest the sharp decline sugar prices

are undergoing through various measures. However, the longer term

fundamentals of high production this year, which would expectedly be

enough to meet the domestic demand this year, have kept the

sentiments negative. This weakness in prices is expected to continue in

the short to medium term though government’s efforts may give some

temporary hiccups to the ongoing declines. Prices can test the support of

Rs 3130 if the resistance of Rs 3342 holds strong. A slip below 3130 will

result in fresh declines in prices towards Rs 2850 levels, which at the

current juncture looks to be a likely scenario.

The government, on 6th February 2018, doubled the import duty on all

types of sugar (raw sugar, refined or white sugar) from the present 50%

to 100% to check cheaper imports from Pakistan. The sugar industry had

been demanding hike in import duty to prevent imports from Pakistan as

sugar’s ex-mill rates fell below the cost of production, affecting their

ability to make 11% higher cane payment to farmers.

The government has further imposed a stock limit that mandates mills to

be holding as inventory at least 83% of the opening stock from January

and February’s production at February end. The limit is 86% for the end

March. This is to check excess release of sugar in the market and arrest

the fall in its prices.

Domestic sugar prices have fallen 17 per cent since Oct. 1 due to higher

production estimate and the above two steps taken by the government

have helped sugar prices stabilise, if not recover, during past few days.

Further in line of corrective measures, the food ministry is considering a

proposal to scrap the 20% export duty on sugar so that any surplus sugar

from the country can be shipped out easily.

ISMA recently revised India’s sugar production estimate upwards to 26.1

mn tonnes in 2017-18 marketing year (Oct-Sep) against 20.3 MT in 2016-

17. The consumption is pegged at 25 MT for this year, which means that

the country may export this season sugar first time in two years.

As per ISMA officials Indian sugar industry will likely export 1 million

tonnes in the 2017-2018 marketing year.

India’s 2017-18 sugarcane production is pegged at 3377 lakh tonnes

against 3067.2 lakh tonnes produced last year.

USDA estimates world sugar production at 185 mn tonnes in 2017-18

from 172 mn tonnes last year, with consumption rising to 174 mn tonnes.

Record production in Brazil (up 1.1 mn tonnes to a record 40.2 mn

tonnes) and higher expectation of India’s output could drag on

international prices that are already near their lowest in 3-1/2 months.

The white sugar premium is now less than $60 a tonne, down from a

high of $115 last year as the European Union removed output curbs,

flooding the international market with refined sugar. Export of surplus

by India could bring even more pain.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

12-02-2018 05-02-2018 %Change

Kohlapur 3250 3043 6.80

Muzzafarnagar 3400 3145 8.11

Kolkatta 3623 3257 11.24

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

2850 3130 3249 3310 3342

Outlook: The prices are expected to trade under pressure, after an initial rise towards Rs 3325, and will move closer to Rs 3130.

2,100

2,400

2,700

3,000

3,300

3,600

3,900

Jan

-14

Jun

-14

De

c-14

May

-15

Oct

-15

Ap

r-16

Se

p-1

6

Mar

-17

Au

g-1

7

Feb

-18

Sugar - M-grade : Muzaffarnagar

SUGAR FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5) *

Doubling of import duty from 50% to 100%

Bullish 20% 4

Imposition of Stock limit of over 83% at Feb end and 86% at March end

Bullish 15% 4

29% y-o-y increase in 2017-18 sugar output of India

Bearish 30% 2

Panic selling by millers under stress to make cane payments

Bearish 10% 2

Weak bulk demand Bearish 10% 2

Consideration to scrap 20% export duty

Bullish 15% 4

Overall fundamental score

3

*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5. Bullish

Fundamentals

Technical Price Analysis

SUGAR

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Date: 13-02-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor

We continue to hold out previous weeks’ view that for the coming couple

of weeks the prices will continue to be range bound within the price band

of Rs 4100-3860. Nearest resistance band is seen at Rs 4120 which once

broken convincingly will result in some short term sharp up move towards

Rs 4400 levels. Fundamental picture is emerging to be supportive with

removal of export ban, expected drop in production and procurement

drive of govt. Rise towards Rs 4400 can escalate further on the breach of

it for Rs 4625 mark in the following weeks. However a failure to breach Rs

4000 will result in some technical supply pressure at those levels. Overall

no significant movement on either side can be expected in the short

term.

The new Tur crop arriving in markets of Maharashtra and Karnataka is trading in the range of Rs 4100-4500 per qtl (Gulbarga) against the MSP of Rs 5450 per quintal.

Procurement drive and increased private buying may prevent the tur prices from further decline in coming weeks.

Tur procurement commenced in Maharashtra from 1st February and is likely to check decreasing prices of Tur in mandis of Maharashtra. Central govt has green signalled to buy 4.46 lakh tonne Tur in the state. Around 1.2 lakh farmers have registered so far. The crop size is smaller than last year and will reinforce recovery in prices.

Ongoing tur procurement in Maharashtra may face troubles as government has planned to purchase only 25% produce of every farmer based on an average productivity of the region, which is being opposed by some farmers. On the other hand, the government is already sitting on huge stocks of tur procured at MSP last year. That will have to be offloaded to clear space for the fresh purchases. If government does that, it would bring down the rates further.

NAFED has procured 53450.598 MT Tur from kharif 2017-18 on MSP of Rs5450 till 20 Jan 2018. Karnataka procured 19946.226 MT & Telangana procured 33504.37 MT Tur. Telangana has met its procurement target.

The demand for tur is likely to strengthen in coming weeks as higher temperature encourages dal demand.

According to the first advance estimate of kharif crops, tur production is expected to decline by 16.5% from 47.8 lakh tonne in 2016-17 to 39.9 lakh tonne in 2017-18.

The area under tur this year declined to 43.5 lakh hectares (lh), from 53.2 lh last year, with Maharashtra farmers alone reducing area from 15.3 lh to 12.3 lh. Even though the area was lower, the yield has been higher across many regions, but farmers are not getting due returns.

The export ban was removed by the government on all pulses.

Myanmar is offering lemon tur (Mumbai) at 4050-4075, lower than prevailing price in India, however imports are not possible as import quota allowed has been used.

Private traders have stocked 3-4 lakh tonnes of tur in Burma & African countries hoping government may open up the imports in lean season.

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

3570 3860 4050 4120 4400

Outlook: The prices will trade in the price band of Rs 3860-4120 with upward bias. Above 4120 a move for Rs4400 will be seen.

2500

6500

10500

14500

Jun

-15

Oct

-15

Jan

-16

May

-16

Au

g-1

6

De

c-16

Mar

-17

Jul-1

7

Oct

-17

Feb

-18

Lemon tur FAQ-Myanmar origin : Mumbai

TUR FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5) *

Ongoing crop arrivals

Bearish 25% 2

Large carryover stocks lying with the government

Bearish 15% 2

Onset of procurement in Maharashtra, procurement in Karnataka and Telangana

Bullish 20% 4

Demand likely to strengthen with rising temperature

Bullish 10% 4

Lower production estimate

Bullish 20% 4

Stocking of Tur by traders in Burma & African countries

Consolidation 10% 3

Overall fundamental score

3.1

*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5. Bullish

Fundamentals

Technical Price Analysis

TUR

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

12-02-2018 05-02-2018 %Change

Mumbai 4350 4460 -2.47

Kanpur 3600 3600 0.00

Akola 4370 4350 0.46

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Date: 13-02-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Wheat prices continued to trade with lethargic momentum last week

also. While market is jittery about the Government’s estimate of record

production this year, the acreage numbers are counter suggestive.

Reports of some damage to the standing crops in Maharashtra is also

capping any fresh downside. We can see some mild recovery in prices if

the reports of damage to the crop witnesses any further development.

Otherwise the wheat prices are expected to trade in the range of Rs 1775-

1815 in the coming days. Immediate support is expected to be at level of

Rs 1765, breaching of this level may push the prices till second support

level of Rs 1745. First resistance level is expected at Rs 1815.

In the current Rabi sowing season, India’s wheat acreage till 09th

February 2018 stands at 304.29 lakh hectares, 4.27 per cent lower

as compared to 317.88 lakh hectares sown last year till the same

date. The acreage has decreased as farmers has shifted to other

crops due to lower water availability. Highest decrease in acreage

was recorded in Madhya Pradesh this year.

There were rains in some parts of Maharashtra accompanied by

hailstorm. Some damage of standing wheat is reported in some

districts of Jalna, Buldhana and Akola.

According to the market participants, India’s wheat imports are set

to surge due to lower plantings and unfavourable weather

condition due to poor rain in the sowing period and expectation of

hailstorms in the harvesting period in some parts of major

producing states. India may import 3.5 million MT in this year from

April 1, 2018 to March 31st, 2019.

According to the first advance estimate, India wheat production is

estimated at 97.50 million MT for 2017-18 which is 1 per cent lower

than fourth advance estimate of 98.38 million MT of 2016-17.

India wheat export is reported at 1.79 lakh MT from April to

November 2018. In 2016-17 India exported 2.62 Lakh MT of wheat.

Export demand of Indian wheat is lower due to price disparity with

other exporting countries.

Wheat buffer stock with government agencies as on 1st January

2018 is 19.562 million MT which is 42.30 per cent higher than stock

of 13.747 million MT at the same time last year. Higher buffer stock

with government agencies may not let prices to move northward

direction.

As per the latest USDA report, Global wheat output is estimated at

757.01 million MT for 2017-18 against 750.54 million tonnes for 2016-

17, while the ending stocks are projected higher at 268.02 million

tonnes against 252.72 million tonnes last year.

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

1720 1770 1789 1815 1845

Outlook: Sideways movement will be seen in the band of Rs 1770-1815.

1500

1700

1900

2100

2300

2500

Feb

-16

May

-16

Au

g-1

6

No

v-16

Feb

-17

May

-17

Au

g-1

7

No

v-17

Feb

-18

Wheat: Standard mill quality : Delhi

SOYABEAN FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5) *

Lower sowing acreage in this season

Bullish 15% 4

Unfavourable weather condition in major producing states

Bullish 30% 4

Lower production estimate

Bullish 15% 4

Expectation of higher imports

Bearish 15% 2

Lower export demand Bearish 10% 2

Higher buffer stock Bearish 15% 2

Overall fundamental score

3.2

*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5. Bullish

Fundamentals

Technical Price Analysis

WHEAT

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

12-02-2018 05-02-2018 %Change

Delhi 1776.65 1783.5 -0.38

Indore 1668.75 1675 -0.37

Kanpur 1665 1675 -0.60

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Date: 13-02-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Fundamentals- Domestic & International RM SEED

Chana acreage this year has increased by over 8% which will expectedly

translate into increased production resulting in supply pressure on prices

of chana in the days ahead. However reports of damage to crops in some

areas of Raj & MP may cap the immediate downside. Overall the lethargic

movement in the chana will continue and there won’t be any significant

recovery in Chana prices in short to medium term. As the prices are

already trading at a very low levels, chances of further drop in prices on

the wake of weak fundamentals are also bleak. But the weak sentiments

will prevent prices from reacting to any positive fundamental noise. Rs

3900 will act as a floor to the prices and won’t let prices fall any further.

On the other side also any sharp rise is unlikely and any recovery will be

capped around Rs 4175 levels keeping the overall trading range narrow.

According to the latest sowing report, as on 09th February all India

chana acreage is reported at 107.63 lakh hectares in 2017-18 which is 8.13

per cent higher than 2016-17 acreage of 99.54 lakh hectares at the same

time period. Chana acreage has increased in 2017-18 due to increase in

MSP and farmers sifting to chana crop as domestic prices were firm

throughout the year.

Unfavourable weather condition in some parts of Rajasthan and Madhya

Pradesh has affected the standing crop of chana. Hailstorm is reported is

some parts of Maharashtra which has damaged the chana crop. Chana

spot prices may show firm movement if weather remains the same.

New chana crop arrivals is already started in Karnataka, Maharashtra and

Gujarat. New chana crop quality is good, but moisture level is higher.

The central government has raised import duty to 40 per cent from 30

per cent as it wants to contain inward shipments in view of record

production of chana. The move is aimed at curbing cheaper imports and

ensure remunerative prices to domestic growers.

Despite higher import duty on chana, regular imports from Australia are

coming. As of 12th February, Australian chana is being traded at Rs 3850

per quintal in Mumbai market and Rs 3900 per quintal at Mundra port.

Chana crop was included in Bhavantar Bhugtan yojana of Madhya

Pradesh government. The registration will begin from February 12 ,2018

and will continue until March 12,2018.

According to the first advance estimates released by the government,

India’s chana production target estimate for 2017-18 is 9.75 million MT

which is slightly higher than 2016-17 fourth advance estimates of 9.33

million MT. However, market participants are expecting some yield loss

in Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Naidu.

According to the latest report of Australian Bureau of Agricultural &

Resource Economics & Sciences(ABARES), Australian chana production

estimate has been reduced by 47.85 percent to 1.045 million tonnes from

2.004 million tonnes last year due to lower yield expectation. Despite

higher sowing chickpea acreage, production decreased due to hot and

dry weather condition in major producing region.

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

3570 3860 4100 4175 4350

Outlook: The prices will trade in the price band of Rs 3860-4150 with upward bias. Above 4175 a move for Rs4400 will be seen.

3500

5000

6500

8000

9500

11000

12500

Se

p-1

6

No

v-16

Jan

-17

Mar

-17

Jun

-17

Au

g-1

7

Oct

-17

De

c-17

Feb

-18

Chana -Rajasthani desi : Delhi

TUR FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5) *

Higher sowing acreage

Bearish 10% 2

Unfavourable weather condition in Maharashtra, M.P. and Rajasthan.

Bullish 30% 4

New crop arrivals Bearish 25% 2

Increase of import duty

Bullish 15% 4

Chana included in Bhavantar Bhugtan Yojana

Consolidation 10% 3

Higher production estimate

Bearish 10% 2

Overall fundamental score

3.00

*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5. Bullish

Fundamentals

Technical Price Analysis

CHANA

@=2

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

12-02-2018 05-02-2018 %Change

Mumbai 4050 4050 0.00

Kanpur 3943 3922 0.54

Akola 3760 3800 -1.05

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Date: 13-02-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Fundamental factors are pointing towards some more moderation in

prices in the near term. Higher acreage in rabi season, commencement of

arrivals in Tamil Nadu and sluggish demand are collectively putting some

supply pressure on the prices. The prices are expected to continue its

declining streak in the coming week and sluggishness sentiments will

continue to prevent any sharp upside move. The technical support band

of Rs 1250 -1240 will be a crucial one. Sustained trading below Rs1240 will

result fresh supply pressure pulling prices down to Rs 1215. Strong

resistance is seen at Rs 1290 levels which will infuse supply if the prices

move closer to that level. However the prices are unlikely to trade beyond

1240-1290 band in the coming couple of weeks.

As per the first advance estimates released by the government, the

kharif maize output for 2017-18 has been projected at 18.73 million

tonnes, lower than the high of 19.24 million tonnes in the previous

2016-17 season.

As of 9th February the sowing in Maize has increased by about 2.5% to

16.96 Lakh Ha this year from 16.55 Lakh Ha Last year

Acreage In Bihar has increased to around 4.7 lakh hectares which is

higher than 4.48 lakh hectares covered during corresponding period

last year and due to this an increase production is expected in tune of

at least 10%

Summer maize crop in Maharashtra, Karnataka & AP has been sown in

2.05, 0.99 & 0.91 Lakh Ha respectively which is marginally lower

compared to the previous years.

Maize crop from Tamil Nadu has started arriving in small quantities

which can help in keeping pressure on market sentiments.

According to UK Agro consult, Ukraine’s export forecast was reduced

to 19 MMT due to a smaller harvest in Ukraine besides an increase in

production in other countries like Brazil and Argentina

According to IGC, Russia is expected to overtake Ukraine this year in

terms of production due better yields in Russia.

IGC in its forecast increased the world corn production by 14 MMT to

1054 MMT compared to its previous reports on account of favourable

conditions across the world

US exports are projected to be lowered by about 17% to 48 MMT from

58 MMT this year.

According to USDA , US corn estimates are expected to be lower at

2.352 million bushels compared to an average estimate of 2.458 million

bushels due to rising exports

Overall fundamental score of 2.8 shows mild bearishness.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

12-02-2018 05-02-2018 %Change

Gullabbagh 1250 1270 -1.57

Nizamabad 1251 1268 -1.34

Erode 1352.75 1351 0.13

1100

1250

1400

1550

1700

Ap

r-16

Jul-1

6

Oct

-16

Jan

-17

Ap

r-17

Au

g-1

7

No

v-17

Feb

-18

Maize-Feed/Industrial Grade : Gulab Bagh

MAIZE FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5) *

Ongoing arrivals Bearish 25% 2

Lower kharif production

for 2017-18

Bullish 20% 4

Higher acreage in rabi

sowing

Bearish 20% 2

Muted demand Bearish 15% 2

Lower world

production compared

to last year

Bullish 20% 4

Overall fundamental score

2.8

*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5. Bullish

Fundamentals

Technical Price Analysis

MAIZE

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

1215 1240 1250 1290 1330

Outlook: Prices will steadily move down towards the immediate support of Rs 1240.

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Date: 13-02-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Paddy prices in Hanumangarh mandi have recently touched a peak of Rs

3800 but have witnessed supply pressure since then. Fundamentals of

higher acreage this season so far and ongoing arrivals have prevented the

prices to stretch its gaining streak further. We expect prices to trade

under mild pressure on the wake of higher arrivals but the government

estimates of lower production will cap the downside for long term. On

the downside Rs 3350 is a good support level and the prices in the

ongoing correction can test that mark. However significant declines

below Rs 3350 is not expected and the prices may get support from

downside around those levels.

The higher arrivals of new crops in spot markets continue to keep

pressure on the Commodity. As per market sources, prices are likely to

remain under pressure in short term due to higher crop arrivals

pressure in spot markets.

According to Ministry of Agriculture, Rice acreage during current Rabi

season as on 02nd February 2018, increased by 18 per cent at 28.61 lakh

hectares as compared to 24.21 lakh hectares last year same period. As

per advance estimates, India's Kharif rice output 2017-18 is likely to fall

by 1.9 million tonnes to 94.48 million tonnes from the record 96.39

million tonnes Kharif production in 2016-17.

As per market sources, pilot projects for Rice silos have been

undertaken by state-owned Food Corporation of India at Kaimur and

Buxar in Bihar to test the technology. The West Bengal government

has evinced interest for construction of Rise silos when the technology

for the same is finalised.

The reopening of Rice imports by Iran could give a fillip to India’s

basmati shipments. Iran, which ended the seasonal import ban in

November, has started registration for rice imports, which will be from

21st January till 21st June 2018.

European Commission has lowered the tolerance limit for tricyclazole,

a fungicide used by most basmati rice growers across India, to 0.001

parts per million (ppm) from January 2018. This is bound to affect the

exports of basmati rice from the country to the European Union.

China will curb planting of rice, the agriculture ministry said, in a major

step towards reducing a growing mountain of unsold stocks. China has

also stepped up exports of rice in a bid to reduce the surplus.

According to U.S. Department of Agriculture, Rice production in

Bangladesh in 2017-18 is forecast down slightly from a year ago. This

year’s output of 32.65 million tonnes is predicted lower than the 2016-

17 total of 34.57 million tonnes.

As per USDA, Rice imports by Bangladesh in 2017-18 are forecast at 3.4

million tonnes, up from last year’s 2.47 million tonnes.

Overall fundamental score of 2.75 indicates that prices might remain

range bound with slightly bearish tone.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

12-02-2018 05-02-2018 %Change

Hanumangarh(1121 Pusa)

3500 3500 0.00

Mainpuri 3140 3250 -3.38

Aligarh 3400 3450 -1.45

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

3200 3350 3500 3700 3800

Outlook: Some more correction towards Rs 3350 can be seen from where the prices will get support.

1600

2000

2400

2800

3200

3600

Jun

-15

Oct

-15

Feb

-16

Jun

-16

Oct

-16

Feb

-17

Jun

-17

Oct

-17

Feb

-18

Paddy - 1121 pusa : Hanumangarh

RICE/PADDY FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5)

*

Higher crop arrivals of new crop in spot markets

Bearish 30% 2

Reopening of rice imports by Iran could give a fillip to India’s basmati shipments

Bullish 15% 3

Higher acreage during current season

Bearish 15% 2

Strong export demand Bullish

20% 4

Lower Rice production

2017-18 Bullish 20% 3

Overall fundamental score

2.75

*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5. Bullish

Fundamentals

Technical Price Analysis

RICE/PADDY

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Date: 13-02-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Fundamentals continued to keep Guar prices buoyant recently.

Expectation of strong exports demand have also been supportive. But

technically the rally is looking overstretched and the prices are prone to

some correction at these higher levels. Prices in the coming week are

likely to move down towards the nearest support mark of Rs 4285 and a

convincing crack of it will pull it down even further towards Rs 4150. On

the other side recently made high of Rs 4360 id the first resistance and in

case prices reclaim that level strongly we may see extension of the recent

rising streak towards the next mark of Rs 4545.

Guar remained positive tracking strong demand, but since last week

prices of Guar seed and Guar gum has declined mainly due to profit

booking at higher levels. Firmness in crude oil is providing strong

support to the commodity. Earlier last week there was good demand

observed from crushers and stockists, but now they have opted to

wait and watch policy.

As per market view, the market players are waiting for December

export data, which is a very crucial and decide market trend in coming

days. Guar gum exports in the recent months were strong and industry

players are expecting better export numbers, but at the same time

they have opt for cautious approach.

Guar gum exports up to November of the financial year 2017-18 were

strong and in case it continues to perform as per market expectation,

then we may see good upside in prices ahead.

India's guar gum exports in Apr-November surged 42 per cent on year

to 321,570 tonnes, data from the Agricultural and Processed Food

Products Export Development Authority showed.

As per the 2nd advance crop production estimates of Rajasthan

government, production of Guar seed in Rajasthan is estimated at

15.44 lakh tonnes for 2017-18 as compared to 14.04 lakh tonnes

estimated for 2016-17. Contrary to the state government's estimate,

trading sources have earlier pegged overall Guar seed production at 7

lakh tonnes in 2017-18.

As per market sources, with crude oil prices remaining firm, demand

for Guar gum has picked up in North America, which has increased oil

exploration and shale gas output.

Overall fundamental score of 2.9 indicates that Guar prices might be in

consolidation mode with slight bullish tone.

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

4150 4285 4325 4360 4545

Outlook: Profit booking can pull prices down towards Rs 4285. Fresh selling will be seen only on a breach of it.

2,900

3,200

3,500

3,800

4,100

4,400

May

-16

Jul-1

6

Se

p-1

6

De

c-16

Feb

-17

May

-17

Jul-1

7

Se

p-1

7

De

c-17

Feb

-18

Guarseed : Bikaner

GUAR FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5)

*

Lower production estimates by trade sources

Bullish 25% 4

Higher exports during current season

Bullish 20% 3

Strength in crude oil prices

Bullish 20% 3

Higher production estimates by Government

Bearish 20% 2

Profit booking at higher levels

Bearish 15% 2

Overall fundamental score

2.9

*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5. Bullish

Fundamentals

Technical Price Analysis

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

12-02-2018 05-02-2018 %Change

Bikaner 4450 4595 -3.16

Jodhpur 4514 4653 -2.99

Sri Ganga Nagar 4261 4405 -3.27

GUAR SEED

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0

Date: 13-02-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Government doubles import duty

on sugar to 100 per cent, hikes

chana to 40 per cent

M.P. announces Rs. 200/quintal

bonus for wheat, paddy

Wheat imports seen surging 40% on

winter crop stress

Unseasonal showers and hailstorm

flatten rabi crops

Centre Centre, states to devise

mechanism to ensure 1.5 times MSP

India imports 50.8 lakh ton pulses

for Rs 17,280 crore in April-

December

Soybean output to decline by 24%

on lower acreage, crop damage

To purchase the India Commodity Year

Book 2018, contact us at

[email protected]

Official Production Estimates

First advance estimates 2017-18 &

previous years’ estimates : First

Advance Estimates 2017-18

MINIMUM SUPPORT PRICE (Rs/Qtl.)

Commodity 2016-17 2017-18

KHARIF

Paddy Common 1470 1550

paddy grade A 1510 1590

Jowar Hybrid 1625 1700

Jowar Maldandi 1650 1725

Bajra 1330 1425

Ragi 1725 1900

Maize 1365 1425

Tur 5050 5450*

Moong 5225 5575*

Urad 5000 5400*

Groundnut 4220 4450*

Sunflower seed 3950 4100 #

Soyabean black 2775 3050

Sesamum 5000 5300 #

Nigerseed 3825 4050 #

Cotton(Medium Staple) 3680 4020

Cotton(Long Staple) 4160 4320

RABI

Commodity 2016-17 2017-18

Wheat 1625 1735

Barley 1325 1410

Gram 4000* 4400

Masur (Lentil) 3950* 4250

Rapeseed/Mustard 3700* 4000

Safflower 3700* 4100

Wheat 1625 1735

*includes bonus of Rs 200 per quintal

# includes bonus of Rs 100 per quintal

THE WEEK THAT WAS

Commodity Latest Fortnight ago

Month ago Year ago

12-Feb-18 29-Jan-18 12-Jan-18 13-Feb-17

Wheat 1668 1675 1723.15 1835

Chana 3943 3862.6 4131.8 5200

Rice/Paddy 3500 3600 3300 3000

Guar 4450 4640 4300 3227.5

Sugar 3400 3149 3319.6 3974.45

Tur 4370 4175 4520 4300

Maize 1230 1271 1307 1600

PRICE TRACKER

Link for commodity-wise and

market-wise prices and arrivals:

http://agmarknet.gov.in/PriceAndArriv

als/CommodityWiseDailyReport2.aspx

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Date: 13-02-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor

RABI SOWING PROGRESS- Link

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Date: 13-02-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Advisory Team

Basant Vaid Head: TCIG [email protected]

Sreedhar Nandam Vice President: SCM [email protected]

Research Team

Suresh Solanki Assistant Manager: TCIG [email protected]

Kamna Malhotra Economist: TCIG [email protected]

Akash Jaiswal Research Analyst: TCIG [email protected]

Ansh Aggarwal Senior Officer: Trade Support [email protected]

For any research queries, contact us at [email protected]

Fundamentals- Domestic & International RM SEED

Disclaimer:

This consultancy report has been prepared by National Collateral Management Services Limited (NCML) for the sole benefit of the

addressee. Neither the report nor any part of the report shall be provided to third parties without the written consent of NCML. Any

third party in possession of the report may not rely on its conclusions without the written consent of NCML. NCML has exercised

reasonable care and skill in preparation of this consultancy report but has not independently verified information provided by others.

No other warranty, express or implied, is made in relation to this report. Therefore, NCML assumes no liability for any loss resulting

from errors, omissions or misrepresentations made by others. Any recommendations, opinions and findings stated in this report are

based on circumstances and facts as they existed at the time of preparation of this report. Any change in circumstances and facts on

which this report is based may adversely affect any recommendations, opinions or findings contained in this report.

© National Collateral Management Services Limited (NCML) 2017

Answers for 16 Jan Quiz:

Ans 1: 12.50% Ans 2: Soyabean, CBOT Ans 3: Jeera, Continued correction

People who gave correct answer:

Riteshkumar Sahu Anil Kumar Parvathneni

Lucky Winner: Anil Kumar Parvathneni