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0
Date: 13-02-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
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NCML COMMODITY MARKET MONITOR
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OTHER DATA Sowing progress | Advance estimates | Kharif and rabi MSP
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Sugar • Tur • Wheat • Chana • Maize • Paddy/Rice • Guar
0
Date: 13-02-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Government is continuously trying to arrest the sharp decline sugar prices
are undergoing through various measures. However, the longer term
fundamentals of high production this year, which would expectedly be
enough to meet the domestic demand this year, have kept the
sentiments negative. This weakness in prices is expected to continue in
the short to medium term though government’s efforts may give some
temporary hiccups to the ongoing declines. Prices can test the support of
Rs 3130 if the resistance of Rs 3342 holds strong. A slip below 3130 will
result in fresh declines in prices towards Rs 2850 levels, which at the
current juncture looks to be a likely scenario.
The government, on 6th February 2018, doubled the import duty on all
types of sugar (raw sugar, refined or white sugar) from the present 50%
to 100% to check cheaper imports from Pakistan. The sugar industry had
been demanding hike in import duty to prevent imports from Pakistan as
sugar’s ex-mill rates fell below the cost of production, affecting their
ability to make 11% higher cane payment to farmers.
The government has further imposed a stock limit that mandates mills to
be holding as inventory at least 83% of the opening stock from January
and February’s production at February end. The limit is 86% for the end
March. This is to check excess release of sugar in the market and arrest
the fall in its prices.
Domestic sugar prices have fallen 17 per cent since Oct. 1 due to higher
production estimate and the above two steps taken by the government
have helped sugar prices stabilise, if not recover, during past few days.
Further in line of corrective measures, the food ministry is considering a
proposal to scrap the 20% export duty on sugar so that any surplus sugar
from the country can be shipped out easily.
ISMA recently revised India’s sugar production estimate upwards to 26.1
mn tonnes in 2017-18 marketing year (Oct-Sep) against 20.3 MT in 2016-
17. The consumption is pegged at 25 MT for this year, which means that
the country may export this season sugar first time in two years.
As per ISMA officials Indian sugar industry will likely export 1 million
tonnes in the 2017-2018 marketing year.
India’s 2017-18 sugarcane production is pegged at 3377 lakh tonnes
against 3067.2 lakh tonnes produced last year.
USDA estimates world sugar production at 185 mn tonnes in 2017-18
from 172 mn tonnes last year, with consumption rising to 174 mn tonnes.
Record production in Brazil (up 1.1 mn tonnes to a record 40.2 mn
tonnes) and higher expectation of India’s output could drag on
international prices that are already near their lowest in 3-1/2 months.
The white sugar premium is now less than $60 a tonne, down from a
high of $115 last year as the European Union removed output curbs,
flooding the international market with refined sugar. Export of surplus
by India could bring even more pain.
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
12-02-2018 05-02-2018 %Change
Kohlapur 3250 3043 6.80
Muzzafarnagar 3400 3145 8.11
Kolkatta 3623 3257 11.24
IMPORTANT LEVELS
S2 S1 CMP R1 R2
2850 3130 3249 3310 3342
Outlook: The prices are expected to trade under pressure, after an initial rise towards Rs 3325, and will move closer to Rs 3130.
2,100
2,400
2,700
3,000
3,300
3,600
3,900
Jan
-14
Jun
-14
De
c-14
May
-15
Oct
-15
Ap
r-16
Se
p-1
6
Mar
-17
Au
g-1
7
Feb
-18
Sugar - M-grade : Muzaffarnagar
SUGAR FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5) *
Doubling of import duty from 50% to 100%
Bullish 20% 4
Imposition of Stock limit of over 83% at Feb end and 86% at March end
Bullish 15% 4
29% y-o-y increase in 2017-18 sugar output of India
Bearish 30% 2
Panic selling by millers under stress to make cane payments
Bearish 10% 2
Weak bulk demand Bearish 10% 2
Consideration to scrap 20% export duty
Bullish 15% 4
Overall fundamental score
3
*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5. Bullish
Fundamentals
Technical Price Analysis
SUGAR
0
Date: 13-02-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
We continue to hold out previous weeks’ view that for the coming couple
of weeks the prices will continue to be range bound within the price band
of Rs 4100-3860. Nearest resistance band is seen at Rs 4120 which once
broken convincingly will result in some short term sharp up move towards
Rs 4400 levels. Fundamental picture is emerging to be supportive with
removal of export ban, expected drop in production and procurement
drive of govt. Rise towards Rs 4400 can escalate further on the breach of
it for Rs 4625 mark in the following weeks. However a failure to breach Rs
4000 will result in some technical supply pressure at those levels. Overall
no significant movement on either side can be expected in the short
term.
The new Tur crop arriving in markets of Maharashtra and Karnataka is trading in the range of Rs 4100-4500 per qtl (Gulbarga) against the MSP of Rs 5450 per quintal.
Procurement drive and increased private buying may prevent the tur prices from further decline in coming weeks.
Tur procurement commenced in Maharashtra from 1st February and is likely to check decreasing prices of Tur in mandis of Maharashtra. Central govt has green signalled to buy 4.46 lakh tonne Tur in the state. Around 1.2 lakh farmers have registered so far. The crop size is smaller than last year and will reinforce recovery in prices.
Ongoing tur procurement in Maharashtra may face troubles as government has planned to purchase only 25% produce of every farmer based on an average productivity of the region, which is being opposed by some farmers. On the other hand, the government is already sitting on huge stocks of tur procured at MSP last year. That will have to be offloaded to clear space for the fresh purchases. If government does that, it would bring down the rates further.
NAFED has procured 53450.598 MT Tur from kharif 2017-18 on MSP of Rs5450 till 20 Jan 2018. Karnataka procured 19946.226 MT & Telangana procured 33504.37 MT Tur. Telangana has met its procurement target.
The demand for tur is likely to strengthen in coming weeks as higher temperature encourages dal demand.
According to the first advance estimate of kharif crops, tur production is expected to decline by 16.5% from 47.8 lakh tonne in 2016-17 to 39.9 lakh tonne in 2017-18.
The area under tur this year declined to 43.5 lakh hectares (lh), from 53.2 lh last year, with Maharashtra farmers alone reducing area from 15.3 lh to 12.3 lh. Even though the area was lower, the yield has been higher across many regions, but farmers are not getting due returns.
The export ban was removed by the government on all pulses.
Myanmar is offering lemon tur (Mumbai) at 4050-4075, lower than prevailing price in India, however imports are not possible as import quota allowed has been used.
Private traders have stocked 3-4 lakh tonnes of tur in Burma & African countries hoping government may open up the imports in lean season.
IMPORTANT LEVELS
S2 S1 CMP R1 R2
3570 3860 4050 4120 4400
Outlook: The prices will trade in the price band of Rs 3860-4120 with upward bias. Above 4120 a move for Rs4400 will be seen.
2500
6500
10500
14500
Jun
-15
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
May
-16
Au
g-1
6
De
c-16
Mar
-17
Jul-1
7
Oct
-17
Feb
-18
Lemon tur FAQ-Myanmar origin : Mumbai
TUR FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5) *
Ongoing crop arrivals
Bearish 25% 2
Large carryover stocks lying with the government
Bearish 15% 2
Onset of procurement in Maharashtra, procurement in Karnataka and Telangana
Bullish 20% 4
Demand likely to strengthen with rising temperature
Bullish 10% 4
Lower production estimate
Bullish 20% 4
Stocking of Tur by traders in Burma & African countries
Consolidation 10% 3
Overall fundamental score
3.1
*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5. Bullish
Fundamentals
Technical Price Analysis
TUR
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
12-02-2018 05-02-2018 %Change
Mumbai 4350 4460 -2.47
Kanpur 3600 3600 0.00
Akola 4370 4350 0.46
0
Date: 13-02-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Wheat prices continued to trade with lethargic momentum last week
also. While market is jittery about the Government’s estimate of record
production this year, the acreage numbers are counter suggestive.
Reports of some damage to the standing crops in Maharashtra is also
capping any fresh downside. We can see some mild recovery in prices if
the reports of damage to the crop witnesses any further development.
Otherwise the wheat prices are expected to trade in the range of Rs 1775-
1815 in the coming days. Immediate support is expected to be at level of
Rs 1765, breaching of this level may push the prices till second support
level of Rs 1745. First resistance level is expected at Rs 1815.
In the current Rabi sowing season, India’s wheat acreage till 09th
February 2018 stands at 304.29 lakh hectares, 4.27 per cent lower
as compared to 317.88 lakh hectares sown last year till the same
date. The acreage has decreased as farmers has shifted to other
crops due to lower water availability. Highest decrease in acreage
was recorded in Madhya Pradesh this year.
There were rains in some parts of Maharashtra accompanied by
hailstorm. Some damage of standing wheat is reported in some
districts of Jalna, Buldhana and Akola.
According to the market participants, India’s wheat imports are set
to surge due to lower plantings and unfavourable weather
condition due to poor rain in the sowing period and expectation of
hailstorms in the harvesting period in some parts of major
producing states. India may import 3.5 million MT in this year from
April 1, 2018 to March 31st, 2019.
According to the first advance estimate, India wheat production is
estimated at 97.50 million MT for 2017-18 which is 1 per cent lower
than fourth advance estimate of 98.38 million MT of 2016-17.
India wheat export is reported at 1.79 lakh MT from April to
November 2018. In 2016-17 India exported 2.62 Lakh MT of wheat.
Export demand of Indian wheat is lower due to price disparity with
other exporting countries.
Wheat buffer stock with government agencies as on 1st January
2018 is 19.562 million MT which is 42.30 per cent higher than stock
of 13.747 million MT at the same time last year. Higher buffer stock
with government agencies may not let prices to move northward
direction.
As per the latest USDA report, Global wheat output is estimated at
757.01 million MT for 2017-18 against 750.54 million tonnes for 2016-
17, while the ending stocks are projected higher at 268.02 million
tonnes against 252.72 million tonnes last year.
IMPORTANT LEVELS
S2 S1 CMP R1 R2
1720 1770 1789 1815 1845
Outlook: Sideways movement will be seen in the band of Rs 1770-1815.
1500
1700
1900
2100
2300
2500
Feb
-16
May
-16
Au
g-1
6
No
v-16
Feb
-17
May
-17
Au
g-1
7
No
v-17
Feb
-18
Wheat: Standard mill quality : Delhi
SOYABEAN FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5) *
Lower sowing acreage in this season
Bullish 15% 4
Unfavourable weather condition in major producing states
Bullish 30% 4
Lower production estimate
Bullish 15% 4
Expectation of higher imports
Bearish 15% 2
Lower export demand Bearish 10% 2
Higher buffer stock Bearish 15% 2
Overall fundamental score
3.2
*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5. Bullish
Fundamentals
Technical Price Analysis
WHEAT
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
12-02-2018 05-02-2018 %Change
Delhi 1776.65 1783.5 -0.38
Indore 1668.75 1675 -0.37
Kanpur 1665 1675 -0.60
0
Date: 13-02-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Fundamentals- Domestic & International RM SEED
Chana acreage this year has increased by over 8% which will expectedly
translate into increased production resulting in supply pressure on prices
of chana in the days ahead. However reports of damage to crops in some
areas of Raj & MP may cap the immediate downside. Overall the lethargic
movement in the chana will continue and there won’t be any significant
recovery in Chana prices in short to medium term. As the prices are
already trading at a very low levels, chances of further drop in prices on
the wake of weak fundamentals are also bleak. But the weak sentiments
will prevent prices from reacting to any positive fundamental noise. Rs
3900 will act as a floor to the prices and won’t let prices fall any further.
On the other side also any sharp rise is unlikely and any recovery will be
capped around Rs 4175 levels keeping the overall trading range narrow.
According to the latest sowing report, as on 09th February all India
chana acreage is reported at 107.63 lakh hectares in 2017-18 which is 8.13
per cent higher than 2016-17 acreage of 99.54 lakh hectares at the same
time period. Chana acreage has increased in 2017-18 due to increase in
MSP and farmers sifting to chana crop as domestic prices were firm
throughout the year.
Unfavourable weather condition in some parts of Rajasthan and Madhya
Pradesh has affected the standing crop of chana. Hailstorm is reported is
some parts of Maharashtra which has damaged the chana crop. Chana
spot prices may show firm movement if weather remains the same.
New chana crop arrivals is already started in Karnataka, Maharashtra and
Gujarat. New chana crop quality is good, but moisture level is higher.
The central government has raised import duty to 40 per cent from 30
per cent as it wants to contain inward shipments in view of record
production of chana. The move is aimed at curbing cheaper imports and
ensure remunerative prices to domestic growers.
Despite higher import duty on chana, regular imports from Australia are
coming. As of 12th February, Australian chana is being traded at Rs 3850
per quintal in Mumbai market and Rs 3900 per quintal at Mundra port.
Chana crop was included in Bhavantar Bhugtan yojana of Madhya
Pradesh government. The registration will begin from February 12 ,2018
and will continue until March 12,2018.
According to the first advance estimates released by the government,
India’s chana production target estimate for 2017-18 is 9.75 million MT
which is slightly higher than 2016-17 fourth advance estimates of 9.33
million MT. However, market participants are expecting some yield loss
in Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Naidu.
According to the latest report of Australian Bureau of Agricultural &
Resource Economics & Sciences(ABARES), Australian chana production
estimate has been reduced by 47.85 percent to 1.045 million tonnes from
2.004 million tonnes last year due to lower yield expectation. Despite
higher sowing chickpea acreage, production decreased due to hot and
dry weather condition in major producing region.
IMPORTANT LEVELS
S2 S1 CMP R1 R2
3570 3860 4100 4175 4350
Outlook: The prices will trade in the price band of Rs 3860-4150 with upward bias. Above 4175 a move for Rs4400 will be seen.
3500
5000
6500
8000
9500
11000
12500
Se
p-1
6
No
v-16
Jan
-17
Mar
-17
Jun
-17
Au
g-1
7
Oct
-17
De
c-17
Feb
-18
Chana -Rajasthani desi : Delhi
TUR FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5) *
Higher sowing acreage
Bearish 10% 2
Unfavourable weather condition in Maharashtra, M.P. and Rajasthan.
Bullish 30% 4
New crop arrivals Bearish 25% 2
Increase of import duty
Bullish 15% 4
Chana included in Bhavantar Bhugtan Yojana
Consolidation 10% 3
Higher production estimate
Bearish 10% 2
Overall fundamental score
3.00
*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5. Bullish
Fundamentals
Technical Price Analysis
CHANA
@=2
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
12-02-2018 05-02-2018 %Change
Mumbai 4050 4050 0.00
Kanpur 3943 3922 0.54
Akola 3760 3800 -1.05
0
Date: 13-02-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Fundamental factors are pointing towards some more moderation in
prices in the near term. Higher acreage in rabi season, commencement of
arrivals in Tamil Nadu and sluggish demand are collectively putting some
supply pressure on the prices. The prices are expected to continue its
declining streak in the coming week and sluggishness sentiments will
continue to prevent any sharp upside move. The technical support band
of Rs 1250 -1240 will be a crucial one. Sustained trading below Rs1240 will
result fresh supply pressure pulling prices down to Rs 1215. Strong
resistance is seen at Rs 1290 levels which will infuse supply if the prices
move closer to that level. However the prices are unlikely to trade beyond
1240-1290 band in the coming couple of weeks.
As per the first advance estimates released by the government, the
kharif maize output for 2017-18 has been projected at 18.73 million
tonnes, lower than the high of 19.24 million tonnes in the previous
2016-17 season.
As of 9th February the sowing in Maize has increased by about 2.5% to
16.96 Lakh Ha this year from 16.55 Lakh Ha Last year
Acreage In Bihar has increased to around 4.7 lakh hectares which is
higher than 4.48 lakh hectares covered during corresponding period
last year and due to this an increase production is expected in tune of
at least 10%
Summer maize crop in Maharashtra, Karnataka & AP has been sown in
2.05, 0.99 & 0.91 Lakh Ha respectively which is marginally lower
compared to the previous years.
Maize crop from Tamil Nadu has started arriving in small quantities
which can help in keeping pressure on market sentiments.
According to UK Agro consult, Ukraine’s export forecast was reduced
to 19 MMT due to a smaller harvest in Ukraine besides an increase in
production in other countries like Brazil and Argentina
According to IGC, Russia is expected to overtake Ukraine this year in
terms of production due better yields in Russia.
IGC in its forecast increased the world corn production by 14 MMT to
1054 MMT compared to its previous reports on account of favourable
conditions across the world
US exports are projected to be lowered by about 17% to 48 MMT from
58 MMT this year.
According to USDA , US corn estimates are expected to be lower at
2.352 million bushels compared to an average estimate of 2.458 million
bushels due to rising exports
Overall fundamental score of 2.8 shows mild bearishness.
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
12-02-2018 05-02-2018 %Change
Gullabbagh 1250 1270 -1.57
Nizamabad 1251 1268 -1.34
Erode 1352.75 1351 0.13
1100
1250
1400
1550
1700
Ap
r-16
Jul-1
6
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-17
Au
g-1
7
No
v-17
Feb
-18
Maize-Feed/Industrial Grade : Gulab Bagh
MAIZE FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5) *
Ongoing arrivals Bearish 25% 2
Lower kharif production
for 2017-18
Bullish 20% 4
Higher acreage in rabi
sowing
Bearish 20% 2
Muted demand Bearish 15% 2
Lower world
production compared
to last year
Bullish 20% 4
Overall fundamental score
2.8
*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5. Bullish
Fundamentals
Technical Price Analysis
MAIZE
IMPORTANT LEVELS
S2 S1 CMP R1 R2
1215 1240 1250 1290 1330
Outlook: Prices will steadily move down towards the immediate support of Rs 1240.
0
Date: 13-02-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Paddy prices in Hanumangarh mandi have recently touched a peak of Rs
3800 but have witnessed supply pressure since then. Fundamentals of
higher acreage this season so far and ongoing arrivals have prevented the
prices to stretch its gaining streak further. We expect prices to trade
under mild pressure on the wake of higher arrivals but the government
estimates of lower production will cap the downside for long term. On
the downside Rs 3350 is a good support level and the prices in the
ongoing correction can test that mark. However significant declines
below Rs 3350 is not expected and the prices may get support from
downside around those levels.
The higher arrivals of new crops in spot markets continue to keep
pressure on the Commodity. As per market sources, prices are likely to
remain under pressure in short term due to higher crop arrivals
pressure in spot markets.
According to Ministry of Agriculture, Rice acreage during current Rabi
season as on 02nd February 2018, increased by 18 per cent at 28.61 lakh
hectares as compared to 24.21 lakh hectares last year same period. As
per advance estimates, India's Kharif rice output 2017-18 is likely to fall
by 1.9 million tonnes to 94.48 million tonnes from the record 96.39
million tonnes Kharif production in 2016-17.
As per market sources, pilot projects for Rice silos have been
undertaken by state-owned Food Corporation of India at Kaimur and
Buxar in Bihar to test the technology. The West Bengal government
has evinced interest for construction of Rise silos when the technology
for the same is finalised.
The reopening of Rice imports by Iran could give a fillip to India’s
basmati shipments. Iran, which ended the seasonal import ban in
November, has started registration for rice imports, which will be from
21st January till 21st June 2018.
European Commission has lowered the tolerance limit for tricyclazole,
a fungicide used by most basmati rice growers across India, to 0.001
parts per million (ppm) from January 2018. This is bound to affect the
exports of basmati rice from the country to the European Union.
China will curb planting of rice, the agriculture ministry said, in a major
step towards reducing a growing mountain of unsold stocks. China has
also stepped up exports of rice in a bid to reduce the surplus.
According to U.S. Department of Agriculture, Rice production in
Bangladesh in 2017-18 is forecast down slightly from a year ago. This
year’s output of 32.65 million tonnes is predicted lower than the 2016-
17 total of 34.57 million tonnes.
As per USDA, Rice imports by Bangladesh in 2017-18 are forecast at 3.4
million tonnes, up from last year’s 2.47 million tonnes.
Overall fundamental score of 2.75 indicates that prices might remain
range bound with slightly bearish tone.
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
12-02-2018 05-02-2018 %Change
Hanumangarh(1121 Pusa)
3500 3500 0.00
Mainpuri 3140 3250 -3.38
Aligarh 3400 3450 -1.45
IMPORTANT LEVELS
S2 S1 CMP R1 R2
3200 3350 3500 3700 3800
Outlook: Some more correction towards Rs 3350 can be seen from where the prices will get support.
1600
2000
2400
2800
3200
3600
Jun
-15
Oct
-15
Feb
-16
Jun
-16
Oct
-16
Feb
-17
Jun
-17
Oct
-17
Feb
-18
Paddy - 1121 pusa : Hanumangarh
RICE/PADDY FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5)
*
Higher crop arrivals of new crop in spot markets
Bearish 30% 2
Reopening of rice imports by Iran could give a fillip to India’s basmati shipments
Bullish 15% 3
Higher acreage during current season
Bearish 15% 2
Strong export demand Bullish
20% 4
Lower Rice production
2017-18 Bullish 20% 3
Overall fundamental score
2.75
*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5. Bullish
Fundamentals
Technical Price Analysis
RICE/PADDY
0
Date: 13-02-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Fundamentals continued to keep Guar prices buoyant recently.
Expectation of strong exports demand have also been supportive. But
technically the rally is looking overstretched and the prices are prone to
some correction at these higher levels. Prices in the coming week are
likely to move down towards the nearest support mark of Rs 4285 and a
convincing crack of it will pull it down even further towards Rs 4150. On
the other side recently made high of Rs 4360 id the first resistance and in
case prices reclaim that level strongly we may see extension of the recent
rising streak towards the next mark of Rs 4545.
Guar remained positive tracking strong demand, but since last week
prices of Guar seed and Guar gum has declined mainly due to profit
booking at higher levels. Firmness in crude oil is providing strong
support to the commodity. Earlier last week there was good demand
observed from crushers and stockists, but now they have opted to
wait and watch policy.
As per market view, the market players are waiting for December
export data, which is a very crucial and decide market trend in coming
days. Guar gum exports in the recent months were strong and industry
players are expecting better export numbers, but at the same time
they have opt for cautious approach.
Guar gum exports up to November of the financial year 2017-18 were
strong and in case it continues to perform as per market expectation,
then we may see good upside in prices ahead.
India's guar gum exports in Apr-November surged 42 per cent on year
to 321,570 tonnes, data from the Agricultural and Processed Food
Products Export Development Authority showed.
As per the 2nd advance crop production estimates of Rajasthan
government, production of Guar seed in Rajasthan is estimated at
15.44 lakh tonnes for 2017-18 as compared to 14.04 lakh tonnes
estimated for 2016-17. Contrary to the state government's estimate,
trading sources have earlier pegged overall Guar seed production at 7
lakh tonnes in 2017-18.
As per market sources, with crude oil prices remaining firm, demand
for Guar gum has picked up in North America, which has increased oil
exploration and shale gas output.
Overall fundamental score of 2.9 indicates that Guar prices might be in
consolidation mode with slight bullish tone.
IMPORTANT LEVELS
S2 S1 CMP R1 R2
4150 4285 4325 4360 4545
Outlook: Profit booking can pull prices down towards Rs 4285. Fresh selling will be seen only on a breach of it.
2,900
3,200
3,500
3,800
4,100
4,400
May
-16
Jul-1
6
Se
p-1
6
De
c-16
Feb
-17
May
-17
Jul-1
7
Se
p-1
7
De
c-17
Feb
-18
Guarseed : Bikaner
GUAR FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5)
*
Lower production estimates by trade sources
Bullish 25% 4
Higher exports during current season
Bullish 20% 3
Strength in crude oil prices
Bullish 20% 3
Higher production estimates by Government
Bearish 20% 2
Profit booking at higher levels
Bearish 15% 2
Overall fundamental score
2.9
*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5. Bullish
Fundamentals
Technical Price Analysis
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
12-02-2018 05-02-2018 %Change
Bikaner 4450 4595 -3.16
Jodhpur 4514 4653 -2.99
Sri Ganga Nagar 4261 4405 -3.27
GUAR SEED
0
Date: 13-02-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Government doubles import duty
on sugar to 100 per cent, hikes
chana to 40 per cent
M.P. announces Rs. 200/quintal
bonus for wheat, paddy
Wheat imports seen surging 40% on
winter crop stress
Unseasonal showers and hailstorm
flatten rabi crops
Centre Centre, states to devise
mechanism to ensure 1.5 times MSP
India imports 50.8 lakh ton pulses
for Rs 17,280 crore in April-
December
Soybean output to decline by 24%
on lower acreage, crop damage
To purchase the India Commodity Year
Book 2018, contact us at
Official Production Estimates
First advance estimates 2017-18 &
previous years’ estimates : First
Advance Estimates 2017-18
MINIMUM SUPPORT PRICE (Rs/Qtl.)
Commodity 2016-17 2017-18
KHARIF
Paddy Common 1470 1550
paddy grade A 1510 1590
Jowar Hybrid 1625 1700
Jowar Maldandi 1650 1725
Bajra 1330 1425
Ragi 1725 1900
Maize 1365 1425
Tur 5050 5450*
Moong 5225 5575*
Urad 5000 5400*
Groundnut 4220 4450*
Sunflower seed 3950 4100 #
Soyabean black 2775 3050
Sesamum 5000 5300 #
Nigerseed 3825 4050 #
Cotton(Medium Staple) 3680 4020
Cotton(Long Staple) 4160 4320
RABI
Commodity 2016-17 2017-18
Wheat 1625 1735
Barley 1325 1410
Gram 4000* 4400
Masur (Lentil) 3950* 4250
Rapeseed/Mustard 3700* 4000
Safflower 3700* 4100
Wheat 1625 1735
*includes bonus of Rs 200 per quintal
# includes bonus of Rs 100 per quintal
THE WEEK THAT WAS
Commodity Latest Fortnight ago
Month ago Year ago
12-Feb-18 29-Jan-18 12-Jan-18 13-Feb-17
Wheat 1668 1675 1723.15 1835
Chana 3943 3862.6 4131.8 5200
Rice/Paddy 3500 3600 3300 3000
Guar 4450 4640 4300 3227.5
Sugar 3400 3149 3319.6 3974.45
Tur 4370 4175 4520 4300
Maize 1230 1271 1307 1600
PRICE TRACKER
Link for commodity-wise and
market-wise prices and arrivals:
http://agmarknet.gov.in/PriceAndArriv
als/CommodityWiseDailyReport2.aspx
0
Date: 13-02-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
RABI SOWING PROGRESS- Link
0
Date: 13-02-2018 NCoMM NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Advisory Team
Basant Vaid Head: TCIG [email protected]
Sreedhar Nandam Vice President: SCM [email protected]
Research Team
Suresh Solanki Assistant Manager: TCIG [email protected]
Kamna Malhotra Economist: TCIG [email protected]
Akash Jaiswal Research Analyst: TCIG [email protected]
Ansh Aggarwal Senior Officer: Trade Support [email protected]
For any research queries, contact us at [email protected]
Fundamentals- Domestic & International RM SEED
Disclaimer:
This consultancy report has been prepared by National Collateral Management Services Limited (NCML) for the sole benefit of the
addressee. Neither the report nor any part of the report shall be provided to third parties without the written consent of NCML. Any
third party in possession of the report may not rely on its conclusions without the written consent of NCML. NCML has exercised
reasonable care and skill in preparation of this consultancy report but has not independently verified information provided by others.
No other warranty, express or implied, is made in relation to this report. Therefore, NCML assumes no liability for any loss resulting
from errors, omissions or misrepresentations made by others. Any recommendations, opinions and findings stated in this report are
based on circumstances and facts as they existed at the time of preparation of this report. Any change in circumstances and facts on
which this report is based may adversely affect any recommendations, opinions or findings contained in this report.
© National Collateral Management Services Limited (NCML) 2017
Answers for 16 Jan Quiz:
Ans 1: 12.50% Ans 2: Soyabean, CBOT Ans 3: Jeera, Continued correction
People who gave correct answer:
Riteshkumar Sahu Anil Kumar Parvathneni
Lucky Winner: Anil Kumar Parvathneni