ndu.edu/jrac/docuploaded/sabonis-helf rcnsc energy july 2008.pdf
TRANSCRIPT
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Regional primary energy consumption patterns 2007
coal hydro
nuclear
gas
oil
From BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007
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Oil consumption per capita
From BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007
Oil consumption per capita
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• 2007: Demand grows to 7.6 million bbls/day
• 2006: China accounts for 35-40% of world demand growth over past 5 years
• 2025: Demand expected to reach 14.2 million bbls/day, (10.9 million bbl/day imports)
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World Oil Consumption: 2003 & 2030
Chart from US Dept of Energy EIA: International Energy Outlook 2006, Figure 27
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Distribution of proven oil reserves in billion barrels
1987: 910.2 1997: 1069.3 2007: 1237.9 From BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007
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Angola joined OPEC in December 2006
Ecuador and Gabon left the OPEC cartel in the 1990s
Indonesia became a net importer in 2004
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Blue designates members of OPEC Brown designates oil producer (non-OPEC)
Base map: www.petroleumgraphics.com; Million Bbl/Day data from US Dept. of Energy EIA 2007
China: 3.8
Russia: 9.7
Kazakhstan: 1.4
Nigeria: 2.4
Angola: 1.4
Libya: 1.8
Norway: 2.8
Saudi Arabia: 10.7
Iran: 4.1
Iraq: 2.0
Algeria: 2.1
Kuwait 2.7
UAE: 2.9 Indonesia: 1.1
Qatar: 1.1
2006 Oil Producers (mil bbl/day)
UK: 1.7
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Mexico: 3.7
Canada: 3.3
United States: 8.4
Venezuela: 2.8
2006 Oil Producers Base map: www.petroleumgraphics.com; Million Bbl/Day data from US Dept. of Energy EIA 2007
Brazil: 2.2
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Swing Capacity
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Bab el-Mandab 3.0 Bosporus/Turkish Straits 3.1 Strait of Hormuz: 17
Strait of Malacca 11.7Russia 2.0Suez Canal/Sumed: 4.2Panama Canal: 0.6
7
2
3
4567
5
6
1
1
2 3
4
Oil Chokepoints (Millions of Barrels per Day)
DatafromUSDeptofEnergyEIA2005(2004estimates)
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Tanker Traffic • Oct 2002: French
supertanker attacked off coast of Yemen.
• June 2002: Moroccan government arrested al-Qaeda operatives suspected of plotting tanker raids in the Strait of Gibraltar.
• Maritime insurance tripled in Yemeni waters. Typical supertanker costs $450,000/trip for ship only.
• 4,000 tankers in use. • Typical supertanker has
2 million bbl capacity. • Key Straits could be
blocked by one burning supertanker/ oil slick.
DatafromtheInstitutefortheAnalysisofGlobalSecurity
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Photo by Gavin Helf
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Canada’s Oil
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Thomas Friedman’s First Law of Petropolitics
From Foreign Policy May/June 2006
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Russia
Image from Norilsk Nickel magazine
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Data from EIA 2007
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Where are the Hydrocarbons?
From BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007
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European Reliance on Russian Natural Gas (2007)
1 Germany (1,378 bcf) 36%
2 Turkey (827 bcf) 64%
3 Italy (742 bcf) 25% 4 France (346 bcf) 20% 5 Czech Rep (247 bcf) 79% 6 Poland (247 bcf) 47%
7 Hungary (226 bcf) 54% 8 Slovakia (223 bcf) 100%
Data from US Dept of Energy EIA 2008
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Russian Oil and Gas Pipelines to Europe: Actual & Proposed
Data from US Dept of Energy EIA 2008
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Russian Nord Stream Natural Gas Pipeline Facts
Route: Portovaya Bay, Russia to coast Germany (underwater) – Baltic Sea
Capacity: 27.5 billion cubic meters (2010); 55 bcm (2012 – 2nd pipeline)
Length: 1,200 km (World’s largest underwater natural gas pipeline – max depth: 210 meters)
Cost Estimate: 5 Billion Euros (60% Increase – 8 Billion Euros) – Cost 2.2 Billion Euros if built on land
Supply: Shtokman gas field (estimated reserves of 3.7 trillion cubic meters – 2010 available)
Shareholders: Gazprom (51%), BASF (24.5%), E.ON (24.5%)
Contracts: Wingas – German Gas Co. – 9 bcm for 25 yrs DONG – Danish Co. – 1 bcm for 20 yrs E.ON – German Co. – 4 bcm Gaz de France – 2.5 bcm
Slide courtesy of Nelson Dodd, NWC Elective 5404
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Canada’s Oil
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Questions?
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Coal production – Coal consumption
From BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007
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Nuclear energy consumption by area
From BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007
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Canada’s Oil
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EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2001; "Potential Oil Production from the Coastal Plain of ANWR,“
- EIA Reserves & Production Division
TotalOilDemand
TransportationDemand
DomesticOilProduction
DomesticOilProductionw/ANWR
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
5
10
15
20
25
30
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Components of Gasoline Prices
US Dept of Energy EIA: May 2006