ndvipresent2
TRANSCRIPT
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Examining relationship between
NDVI (Normally Differentiated Vegetation Index)
and
production/procurementusing freely available Remote Sensing Data
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Motivation I
NDVI (Normally Differentiated Vegetation Index) has been used
extensively to measure vegetation cover characteristics, cropassessment studies, monitor health of crops over large regions,monitor vegetation change and estimate biomass. Time seriesanalysis of NDVI allows establishment of a baseline for normalvegetation productivity for a region.
Moreover, it has been used in regression models to predict crop
harvests with high degree of accuracy. Crop residues/green fodder is universally used as the primary bulk
feed either in-situ or ex-situ. Crop residues are stored typically for 6months to one year, after the harvests.
production is dependant upon the availability of feed.
procurement trend would follow that of production if all external
conditions remain same including competition and payment tofarmers.
Thus, procurement or production may be linked or correlated withNDVI with a lag of 6 months
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Motivation II
Normally remote sensing data is expensive and its analysis requires
expert manpower and costly software. However, GLAM (Global Agricultural Monitoring project) of USDA
has been providing processed NDVI data for all parts of India at a
comparatively high level resolution of 250 sq.meters. This is
provided through internet free of cost and updated every fortnight.
Village boundary information can be now overlaid with NDVI data(downloaded from USDA) to arrive at the composite NDVI for any
specific village for every fortnight.
Thus, it is possible to correlate this data with monthly time series
milk procurement data for the villages. Thereafter, suitable models
can be developed for predicting short term changes in
production/procurement.
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Experimental work with 2 villages (Waghod &Morgaon ) in Jalgaon
based upon procurement data between Apr-Nov05 & Apr-Nov06
Downloaded NDVI data for India
and specific area in Jalgaon district
Source: Global Agricultural Monitoring Project, USDA
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Example: NDVI information during the fortnight Sep 13 Sep28, 2004 downloaded from
USDA website and overlaid on village boundary information of Jalgaon District. The areaunder study highlighted in box showing the 2 villages.
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Combined monthwise procurement in 2005-06 and 2006-07in the 2 villages (In Kgpd)
0
100
200300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV
PROC0506
PROC0607
PROC0506 PROC0607
APR 680 617
MAY 501 456
JUN 446 318
JUL 485 295
AUG 483 250
SEP 575 329
OCT 774 394
NOV 895 568
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NDVI between harvest to next harvest 2004-05, 2005-06 & 2006-07 in
the specific area along with the short-term mean of 5 years
NDVI is at its peak value just before harvesting. NDVI has been found to have very strong correlation
with biomass availability (Kg/sq.m). We may see that 2004-05 had been a good crop year in comparison
to 2005-06.
70
72
74
76
78
8082
84
86
88
90
SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR
NDVI0405
NDVI0506
NDVI0607
NDVI0405 NDVI0506 NDVI0607
SEP 88 87 82
OCT 85 83 82
NOV 84 80 81
DEC 83 79 81
JAN 83 78 80
FEB 83 76 79
MAR 75 75 72
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Correlating lean-flush monthly NDVI values with procurement with a
lag of 6 months beginning with harvesting month i.e. NDVI values
between Sep-Feb of the previous year vs. procurement in Apr-Sep in
current year
PROC0506 PROC0607
PR 680 617
MAY 501 456
UN 446 318
UL 485 295
UG 483 250
SEP 575 329
OCT 774 394
NOV 895 568
NDVI0405 NDVI0506
SEP 88 87
OCT 85 83
NOV 84 80
DEC 83 79
AN 83 78
FEB 83 76
MAR 75 75
CORRELATION 0.71 0.90
We observe a high degree of correlation in both
the years.
This may be explained by the fact that in 2004-05
the general harvest in Sep04 was much betteras evidenced by high NDVI values, which
reflected in higher production/procurement in the
forthcoming lean in Apr05.
In Sep05 the harvest seems to be poorer with
lower NDVI values and corresponding drop in
production/procurement in coming lean seasonbeginning Apr06 onwards.