ne-remo: new england renewable energy market outlook subscription briefings · 2019-07-17 ·...
TRANSCRIPT
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NE-REMO:New England Renewable Energy Market
Outlook Subscription Briefings
What is the Basis of Your Market Outlook?
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What is REMO?Renewable Energy Market Outlook
• An outlook on the regional renewable energy market for new renewable energy sources (supply, demand, drivers, risks, scenarios, price implications) for New England.
• Much more than just a forecast• A briefing on the results of an extensive and timely analysis of supply and demand for
regional “Class 1” or ‘new’ renewable energy◦ As well as all other classes of RPS demand that influence these markets (MA CES, NH-3)◦ Includes modeling distinct state eligibility and potential for state markets to diverge or converge
• A detailed fundamentals analysis◦ We’ve usually seen turns in the market before the broker market
• A source for rapid, deep understanding of a complex marketplace• Prepared by the team that has been doing this since 2005 - longer than anyone – and
who understands the marketplace better than anyone
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What REMO is not…
An analysis of renewable energy demand for purely ‘existing’ renewables not dynamic, little value added
An analysis of energy efficiency or alternative resources portfolio standards
A Solar REC outlook (to be) sold separately
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REMO DeliverablesSupplementing REMO briefings with a suite of targeted modular products
Always available, updated as needed
REMO “User Guide” (2-pager)Help user understand how to interact with REMO
“Very Basics” Primer (Recorded briefing)Prepare new users & new market participants for briefings,
mitigating the “jumping on a moving train” feeling
Methodology Primer (Slide deck)Provide transparency &
support confidence in REMO approach
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The “Big Picture” Briefing (~1 hr +Q&A)
Key market drivers and changes Core supply-demand & price results Core result implications Q&A
Targeted at participants with limited timed to receive major take-aways needed for executive functions
Scheduled twice, recorded
The “Details” Briefing (~1.5 hrs)
Headlines, trends and observations Market drivers Unknowns Key assumptions Q&A
Targeted at participants with time & interest to dig deeper into the details
Scheduled once, recorded
Updated and delivered for each REMOScenario & Sensitivity Supplement (Slide deck)
Probe impact of import unknows; arm subscribers to anticipate, plan for, or influence alternative futures
Assumptions Appendix (Slide deck)Provide transparency & support confidence in REMO
approach; allow user to adjust for own view where assumptions may differ
Two Live Web REMO briefings (3x per year)1 2
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How REMO works?REMO starts with a look back….
& a review of market expectations
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How REMO works?REMO provides subscribers with a review of highlights, the trends shaping the RE marketplace…so you can understand why
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We Consider Demand…
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We Consider Supply…• Extensive project database with project-by-project, situation-specific
projections of probability of success and timing
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Putting supply and demand together under a variety of different scenarios…• Helps you understand where the market may go, what could change
its direction, and why
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Commodity RevenuesWe consider the revenues available in the commodity market under a variety of future conditions…
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Cost of EntryBeyond the near-term horizon, we focus on the cost of entry, based on a detailed and rigorous regional renewable energy supply curve
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Combining Supply-Demand Balance, Cost of Entry and Banking for a variety of scenarios….
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Uncertainties Abound in the Marketplace
Our market outlook includesexpectations, and a thorough
understanding of risks and their implications/repercussions
How can you believe a forward curve with no context?
“Risk is measurable uncertainty”“Uncertainty is unmeasurable risk”
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Insights you won’t find elsewhere
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Why do you need REMO?• Whether you are a developer, asset owner, investor, broker, marketer,
load-serving entity, utility, public agency or advocate.... REMO provides actionable understanding and market intelligence
• Meaningful insights you won’t find elsewhere• Objectivity
◦ We don’t have a horse in the race◦ No financial interest in outcome… we don’t take a position in the market◦ Variety of subscribers – sellers (developers, asset owners, utilities), buyers (LSEs,
power and REC marketers, brokers), transmission companies, investors, public agencies, and advocates - assures we have no intentional bias
• Cost? Value!◦ Broad base of subscribers allows us to provide a lot, for a reasonable price◦ Making you just $1/MWh smarter… REMO pays for itself many times over for most
subscribers
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Pricing Options• Single subscription (no risk, price goes down with subsequent
briefings)• Term subscriptions – substantial savings/volume discount – with
options tuned to your needs◦ ‘No Regrets’ pricing
• 10% Discount when bundled with an Eyes & Ears subscription• Affiliate discounts• Recorded briefings available ‘between cycle’ at reduced cost• Individual custom briefings can be scheduled, by web or in person
(extra fees apply)
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Forward Price Curves:Standard & Customized Market Outlooks
• The cost of entry curves (specific #s) are available upon request• Specific 10-yr price curves, supply/demand graphics and other scenarios,
can be requested• Additional fees will apply
Examples of parameters that could be varied:Load growth • RPS Targets • Banking Scenarios • Supply Layers • PTC Scenarios • Resource Costs •Financing Structure & Cost • FCM • Carbon • Market Electricity Prices • Resource Availability • Imports
• Market Heat Rate • Escalation Factors • Trends in Technology Advance • Impact of Long-Term Contracting Requirements • Project Delay • Project-specific probability of permitting, probability of
eligibility, probability of financing
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Most requests (not requiring programming) can be accomplished for $1000
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New England REMO
What is the Basis of Your Market Outlook?
Try it out today!
Sustainable Energy Advantage, LLC161 Worcester Road, Suite 503
Framingham, MA 01701http://www.seadvantage.com
Bob Grace 508-665-5855
Jason Gifford 508-665-5856
For More information. contact Sustainable Energy Advantage, LLC